Fair weather allowed harvest progress to be made this week, but the market will be wondering just how much when it is announced Monday afternoon. Combines were slow to get into the field because soils had to dry as well as grain. With elevators removing 10 points of moisture or more from the corn, instead of 5 points or less, the volume of grain to be dried caused many elevators to observer shorter hours of dumping grain.

The most rapid weekly corn harvest rate in recent years was 16% says IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, who says fast harvest paces usually occur in the middle of harvest. He says if 25% of the crop had been harvested by Nov. 1, another 16% this week would mean it will take 5 more weeks to complete the corn harvest. But he is quick to say that cannot be sustained, because of weather, storage, and shipping dynamics.

The most rapid weekly bean harvest rate in recent years has been 20 to 24% of the crop says Darrel Good. And he says if 50% of the soybeans were harvested by Nov. 1, then it still appears to him that soybean harvest could still extend into December. Read his newsletter.

The Nov. 10 USDA Crop Report will be important in determining the impact of harvest conditions, says Good, who notes that crop diseases, low test weights, above average field losses, and quality deterioration have all become potential problems. And he says extreme weather in some areas may result in increased acreage that is abandoned.

Don’t wait for corn to dry very much says IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger. He says, “Expect on average for grain moisture to change very slowly in November. Expecting it to drop by as much as a point per week is optimistic.” While the weather has been damp since maturity, upright ears have trapped water and cobs are holding onto water. He also says test weights will rise 2-4 lbs. when they are taken after the corn has dried down.

As corn weathers in the field, expect yield losses says Nafziger. He says kernel weight will drop if mold is growing on and in kernels. Ears that are vertical will capture water and base kernels will begin to sprout in warmer temperatures. But he says two big threats are stalk failure that will allow ears to fall to the ground and a quick dry down in good weather that will weaken cobs to the point of losing kernels at the combine header.

Many elevators are reporting low test weights on corn, and some loads have been discounted. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says there is little research that correlates test weight with yield, and there is no indication that low test weight corn is an inferior livestock feed. Nielsen says test weight and moisture content go in opposite directions, since the dry matter in the corn is heavier than water. Drier corn has higher test weight.

Why is test weight low this year? Purdue’s Bob Nielsen says there are several reasons:
1) Late season foliar disease and cool Sept. temperatures reduced photosynthetic activity.
2) The October freeze damaged late developing and immature corn and stopped grain fill.
3) Ear rots damaged kernels, causing light weight and chaffy grain with low test weight.

Do you harvest or wait for dry down? IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if the crop is standing well, then waiting for the loss of a few more points of moisture may pay, even though it is risky. He says 200 bu. corn at $3.50 with drying and shrink valued at 4¢ per bushel will save you $8 per acre for each point of moisture that is removed naturally.

Harvest it or leave it for the winter? Northern Cornbelt producers may weigh that thought, but WI specialists say the real question is: “Will the revenue lost by winter crop damage be less than the cost of drying this fall?” Their table demonstrates that a 20% to 37% yield loss that could be expected will not offset drying charges after harvest. Read more.

The drying process will also help maintain quality, according to MN ag engineer Bill Wilcke, who prefers the use of high temperature drying over low temp systems. He says, “Higher temperature dryers aren’t likely to run hot enough to kill the molds, but they do slow mold growth by reducing the grain’s moisture content. The agitation of the grain during high-temperature drying is also likely to rub off some kinds of molds.”

On-farm drying equipment may require more than the normal amount of maintenance because it is being used around the clock. Ontario ag engineer Helmut Spieser suggests checking interior drier screens daily to prevent material buildup. He says that prevent airflow and that will reduce throughput. And that buildup also causes dryer fires.

What is your drying temperature? Your initial thought is to raise the temperature on high moisture corn to maintain dryer capacity. But if corn is not increasing in test weight after it has passed through the dryer, then the drying temperature is too high. Spieser says drop the plenum temperature in increments to gain test weight. He says since every kernel has a different moisture content, each pass through the dryer will reduce the moisture by the same amount, but since each was starting at a different moisture they will not all be uniform after drying. Spieser says manage that with adequate aeration.

Here is Spieser’s checklist for successful grain drying practices:
1) Higher drying temperatures usually result in lower grain quality
2) Reduce drying temperatures to maintain or increase test weight
3) Monitor immature corn for caramelization (if the milk line remained)
4) Kernel to kernel moisture content will vary both before and after drying
5) Storage aeration should bring wetter and drier kernels to nearly the same moisture
6) Keep kernel temperatures below 120oF to 140oF
7) Consider two-stage drying: 18% in the field and 15% in the bin
8) Two stage drying will allow the drying season to proceed

New corn to be fed to livestock may need to be tested for mycotoxins, which could cause critical health issues for cattle. Those come from a variety of molds, which have reduced test weight, and degraded both the quality and nutrient content. However, to test the grain, the critical issue is obtaining a sample that is representative of the corn destined to be fed. Small amounts can be taken periodically from a combine or grain card until a sufficient amount is collected. Have it tested within a week at a reputable laboratory.

Both molds and mycotoxins in corn can cause herd health issues. MN livestock specialist Jim Linn said certain animals are more susceptible, “At heightened risk for mold and mycotoxin health and disease problems are young animals, breeding animals and lactating dairy cows, with swine and poultry species more susceptible to these problems than ruminants. Mycotoxins in large doses can cause acute health, reproduction and production problems. However, the most likely scenario with feeding of moldy and/or mycotoxin containing feeds is a higher incidence of general, chronic health problems, poor reproduction and overall poor animal growth or milk production.”

But how much can be fed? That varies according to age and specie of the animal says MO specialist Marcia Shannon, who first recommends buying clean grain for your livestock. “Thus, some moldy feed may be fed to beef cattle. Feeder cattle should be able to safely consume levels five to 10 times higher than swine and dairy. Thus, ruminants older than 4 months can withstand 10 to 20 ppm of vomitoxin. Signs of toxicity with vomitoxin/ deoxynivalenol (DON) are usually feed refusal or feed intake reduction. At concentrations of 5 to 10 ppm vomitoxin vomiting is observed in swine. Read her newsletter.

Once more around with corn molds. Many farmers are continuing to find molds in corn which can be summarized.
1) Diplodia ear rot (white) has been widespread, but does not produce mycotoxins.
2) Giberella ear rot (pink) is also present and creates vomitoxin or DON and zearalenone.
3) Fusarium is less prevalent (white starburst) and produces fumonisin toxins.
4) Penicillium (blue-green) affects the kernel embryo and produces mycotoxin.
5) Cladosporium (blue-eye mold) grows when kernels killed early and harvest is delayed.
6) When combining moldy corn adjust for minimum damage and maximum cleaning.
7) Moldy grain should be dried below 15% for long term storage.
8) Moldy grain should always be tested for mycotoxins before being fed to animals.
9) Adding a mycotoxin binder to feed can reduce the impact of toxins in digestion.
10) DDGS can also contain mycotoxins, but are much more concentrated than in corn.

Crop insurance policies protect you against grain quality problems, in case your grain is low grade, low test weight, excessive kernel damage, musty, or have mycotoxins that reduce its use as a livestock feed. MO economist Ray Massey recommends contacting your crop insurance agent for help in documenting your problem with samples collected by an adjustor. Those samples need to be obtained while the grain is still in the field. Read more.

Regardless where you are in the Cornbelt, you may have issues related to the late maturity of crops and challenges in harvesting because of inclement weather. MN Extension specialists have assembled a wide variety of resources from numerous universities to address those problems at a special website.

Crop specialists in MN, where immature crops are a significant issue, are telling farmers to put their priority on soybeans, regardless of moisture levels. And they say store them with a high volume of air continuously for several months, and closely monitor any low temperature drying to ensure against further deterioration of soybean quality. They say the alternative is leaving them in the field and watching the pods shatter.

Combine adjustments can reduce many problems in harvesting immature corn that has a low test weight with kernels prone to breakage. Many of those are provided by ag engineer Helmut Spieser of the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture. Read those here.
1) Reduce cylinder speed and open concaves.
2) Leave fines in the field, rather than in the bin where they enable mold growth
3) Not much field drying occurs at this time of the year with cooler temperatures.

If frost killed soybeans before maturity, they may still have a green color from the chlorophyll that did not degrade with maturity says MO’s Bill Wiebold. And he says some of it will remain even through long term storage, coloring the oil when the soybeans are processed. He says frost damaged beans will store, but will have a higher moisture content and should be aerated. Over time they will shrink and become more oblong, and that should be considered when adjusting a combine to harvest immature soybeans.

The saga of soybean aphids has a new chapter. Densities were impressive when they left soybean fields to find buckthorn, leading entomologists to expect significant egg- laying and a large 2010 population. But a survey in MI and IN found dead aphids, apparently the victims of a fungal disease. The aphid specialists believe that if that is the same in other parts of the Midwest, there may not be large numbers of aphids next spring.

Wet weather may bolster winter annual weeds, but MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley says your inability to apply a fall herbicide will not be that important. He says, “Our research indicates that applications of residual herbicides made in the early spring can provide similar levels of winter annual weed control as applications of these same herbicides in the fall. In addition, our data indicate that early spring applications of residual herbicides provide better control of emerging summer annual weed seedlings than fall herbicide applications.” He adds that many winter annuals germinate twice.

Unharvested seed may soon prepare itself for planting due to the wet weather, if it is warm enough. MO specialist Bill Wiebold says it only takes temperatures over 50º for corn to sprout in the husk, damaging its quality. “During germination, seeds release enzymes that break down carbohydrates, proteins and fats. This breakdown releases free sugars, amino acids, and fatty acids. These simple compounds spoil easily in storage.” Read more.

October was the second wettest and fifth coolest in Missouri, says state climatologist Pat Guinan. Looking ahead, he says, “The latest winter outlook for Missouri calls for above normal temperatures for the northwestern half of the state and equal chances for above, below and near normal temperatures for the rest of Missouri. Below normal precipitation is anticipated across far southeastern sections with equal chances of above, below and near normal precipitation for the rest of the state.”

With wet weather on both ends of the growing season, did corn rootworm create havoc? The preliminary results from corn root ratings collected by IL entomologists indicated that about all of the efforts to control rootworm were successful when compared against the untreated test plots. Read more.

What were some of the lessons learned about controlling corn rootworms?
1) Low densities could be the result of saturated soils or more acres planted with Bt corn.
2) Wet weather did not seem to reduce the effectiveness of soil insecticides.
3) Bt hybrids generally performed well, but not always better than soil insecticides.
4) Bt hybrids combined with soil insecticides resulted in very low root damage.
5) Data is still being tallied on which options provided the best economic sense.
6) Planting Bt hybrids in 2010 is a field by field decision, based on 2009 scouting.

Your priority on harvesting may sacrifice soil compaction, and that will be a long term problem says MO specialist Kent Shannon. He says shallow compaction of 12 inches or less can be corrected with tillage, but heavy loads on combines, trucks, or grain carts will compact soil to depths unreachable by tillage, and will remain wet late into next spring. Shannon says tire inflation pressure is one solution, and with selecting the proper tire, a 200 HP tractor may cause no more surface compaction than a 50 HP tractor.

Just because you had a good crop this year does not mean you can save money by avoiding P & K application before the 2010 crop according to OH fertility specialist Robert Mullen. He said many producers skipped P & K when P cost $1,200 per ton and K was over $1,000. Mullen says P has dropped to under $400 per ton and K is about $500, but both will be needed in 2010, especially if they were skipped earlier this year. He says if input costs are still a budget problem for you, look at the results of a soil test.

Fall or spring, your P & K application will produce the same yield. That is the opinion of MO soil fertility specialist Peter Scharf who also warns that if you did not get a P & K application prior to the 2009 crop, there is a potential for yield loss in your 2010 crop. But he says in the case of wheat, fall is the time when P nutrition makes the difference. Read more.

Consumer demand for pork is strong, but just how strong is an enigma to MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They quote USDA as saying there has been a 4% increase in demand for Jan-Sept compared to last year. Grimes and Plain doubt that degree of strength, but say consumer demand is as strong or stronger than 2008. They also challenge USDA’s way of measuring demand. They argue that credit should be given to the tonnage sold at lower prices, not just tonnage sold at regular prices.

Over 208,000 head have been removed from the US dairy herd so far this year, but OH dairy specialist Cameron Thraen says another 200,000 needs to be removed, so the national herd can drop under 9 million head. He says, “That will put farmers in a more stable position of balancing the domestic use market with only a small international component." He says the current $12.20 cwt price should rise to $15.00 in 2010.

Assuming the wheat economies for the US and world remain healthy in the next ten years and demand remains strong, prices for wheat will recover from the current low levels. That is how ag economists Richard Taylor and Won Koo at North Dakota State University look at the future for wheat growers. Their forecast calls for increased wheat trade and prices over the next ten years.

To establish a baseline of wheat production, consider the fact that over the past 20 years world production has increased from 521 million tons to 612 million; with the EU the largest producer, followed by China, and the Former Soviet Union. The US produced about half of what was grown in the EU, and other significant producers included Canada, Australia, India, and Argentina, with all of those countries supplying 84% of world production. Last year world trade was 101 million tons, and that represented 17% of world production, with the US among one of the major exporters. Taylor and Koo report a dramatic change in the world wheat market in the past decade with government policies encouraging production, but the market has been impacted by the ethanol industry. During that time world export prices floated between $3 and $5, but beginning in 2007, surpluses fell to 30 year lows before a slight recovery last year.

Another dynamic in the wheat market is the increase in yields of 422% in China and 203% in India. Worldwide yields are up 128% in the past five decades. Total production has increased by 520% in India and 403% in China, and 73% in the US. The EU produced 5.2 tons per hectare in 2008, while China was at 4.71 and the US was at 3.05 tons per hectare.

Based on production trends, Taylor and Koo project world wheat trade to increase nearly 24% from the 73 million tons exported in 2008 to more than 90 million in 2018. They say, “The high wheat prices seen in 2007 and 2008 should not return because the recession lowered demand and increased production increased supply and carry-over stocks. All wheat prices are expected to return to more normal levels and slowly increase throughout the projection period.”

By 2018 US production is expected to increase 24% above the average of the past 3 years, but will be much lower than production of the late 1990’s. They expect a 52% increase in soft red wheat because of the low starting point from short acreage in 2008. Total wheat harvested is expected to increase from 51 million acres to nearly 58 million in 2018, with yields rising from 41.3 bu. to 46.8 bu. per acre. At the same time, exports and ending stocks are expected to increase.

Canadian production is expected to increase 5% over the recent production, but domestic consumption will rise along with exports and ending stocks for the next 10 years

European Union production will increase 6.7%, consumption by 5%, but exports are expected to decrease because newer member countries are not wheat exporters, but importers. EU ending stocks are expected to rise through 2018.

Australian wheat production will grow 90% through 2018 because the recent baseline was a series of droughty crops. Wheat consumption will rise 4%, and exports will rise 114% because of the recent crop failures.

Argentina will see production drop 9% from the recent average, but rise 30% over the droughty 2008 crop. Consumption will rise 16%, but exports will drop 26%, and ending stocks will rise 13%.

Importing countries across Asia will curtail their purchases nearly 50% over the next 10 years, but that is because of the shift in India from being both an importer and exporter depending on its own production and surplus stocks from year to year. China will continue to be a major importer, but is also a substantial producer of wheat.

Summary:
The future of the wheat market is largely dependent upon the economic recovery, and if the predicted income growth does not occur, then import demand for wheat will grow slower and prices will be softer. Prices are not expected to return to levels of 2006-2008, but the weak dollar will encourage foreign demand and prices should return to the $4.90 to $5.40 range. World exports will rise and African countries will be a growth market.

The crop insurance industry continues to diminish in size annually with companies buying each other. But are they making money and are the companies that you expect to send you an indemnity check in good financial health? Iowa State University economist Bruce Babcock conducted a health check up on the crop insurance industry after the USDA reported high profitability and the industry disagreed. USDA’s Risk Management Agency said the average annual rate of return on equity within the industry since 2000 has been 19%, which was 72% more than what might have been expected. In response, the insurance industry said the crop insurance industry is not as profitable as the property and casualty industry and there is more risk in crop insurance. This tit-for-tat is not new and causes Congressional inquiries into crop insurance that are frequently not clearly answered.

Economist Babcock says a simple and reasonable measure of profitability indicates, “that industry subsidies could be reduced by more than a billion dollars without adverse impacts on program effectiveness.” He says the big difference between crop insurance and unsubsidized insurance is that about 80% of the premium revenue is paid by taxpayers in return for the requirement to sell crop insurance to all farmers who want to buy it. And Babcock says that makes good reason to question the fact about a 72% rate of return above what might be otherwise expected.

While crop insurance products and premiums are the same from one company to another, because of federal equality requirements, there is some competition among the various crop insurance carriers. And Babcock says, “Those companies that are best at using the government-provided reinsurance make more money than others. In addition, companies compete with each other for market share by competing for crop insurance agents' books of business.” He says those companies that pay higher commissions to independent agents will tend to increase their market share. Thus, Babcock says, if all else is equal, examine the commission structure to find out which companies are doing well and which are trying to cut losses.

His examination of crop insurance agent commissions found that in the past 8 years, commissions have held between 15.5% and 17% as a percentage of total premiums paid. But in the same time, he says the dollar amount of commission paid per policy sold has increased fourfold. Adjusting commissions to general wage inflation, Babcock says, “the amount by which agents were able to increase their compensation because of increased profits of the crop insurance companies in 2008 was $1,015 per policy.” He multiplied that amount by the 1.148 million policies sold in 2008 to arrive at $1.165 billion, which he contends is overcompensation of crop insurance agents. And Babcock feels that’s an excessive support of the crop insurance industry.

If Babcock’s $1.165 billion is cut from industry revenue, there would be about $2 billion left from underwriting gains and expense reimbursement. He suggests that underwriting gains could be returned to the Risk Management Agency, or RMA could cut expense reimbursement to $426 per policy, and save $500 million per year in commissions. But he doubts that Congress would cut such a program that has pumped money into the pockets of crop insurance agents who live in rural areas. Nevertheless, he believes the same level of service can be provided to farmers at a much lower cost.

Summary:
Crop insurance companies and their agents will have a lot of work this fall, but they will be compensated for it. With an average commission exceeding $1,000 per policy, crop insurance agents could serve as an indicator of the health of the industry. While the industry says it is in challenging financial times, USDA disagrees, however there are difficulties in determining which side is correct. If agent commissions are the only inequitable factor, the financial health of the industry could be determined by those commssions.

USDA’s Crop Progress report Monday afternoon indicated that 94% of the corn crop is mature, compared to the 99% average for the past five years, but only 25% of the crop had been harvested as of November 1. And that is well behind the 71% average for 2004 to 2008.

Within the Cornbelt, ND has only 2% of its crop harvested, but only 60% of it is mature. MI is 10% harvested, SD and MN are at 12%, and WI is at 13%. NE and IA are 18% harvested, IL is 19%, but IN and OH are in the mid-20% range. During the past week, no state advanced its harvest more than 7%, and most were only in the 3% and 6% range, except for the fact ND made no progress at all in harvesting corn.

Soybean harvest, nationally, advanced only from 44% last week to 51% this week, but most of that was in the southern soybean belt. Across the Cornbelt, harvest progress ranges from 29% in WI and 35% in IL to as much as 69% in NE and 82% in OH. Other Cornbelt states fall in the middle. Substantial harvest progress of 10% in the Dakotas, 11% in IN and 12% in MN. However, only 2% progress was made in IL and 4% in WI.

As the weather-weary fall wears on, crop quality continues to deteriorate. While 18% of the corn remained in the excellent category, the amount of corn rated as good faded from 51% last week to 49% this week with more acreage pushed into the fair and poor ratings. For soybeans, 15% of the crop remained in the excellent category, but the amount of acreage rated as good dropped from 50% last week to 48% this week with acreage being shoved into the poor and very poor ratings.

Although the deadline is 5 weeks away for the end of the insurance period for Cornbelt row crops, such as corn and soybeans, many farmers are fearing they may push hard against that deadline unless there is more opportunity for crops to dry out, for soils to dry out, and for harvesting equipment to get another chance to do its work. USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) Monday released a statement advising farmers what to expect with their crop insurance policy if crops are not out of the field by the December 10 end of their insurance policy. RMA says, “The most important action you can do is to contact your crop insurance agent to report a loss, indicating your harvest is delayed because of adverse weather, which is an insured cause of loss.” But RMA says normal harvest practices must be carried out if possible. Interestingly, RMA says the cost of drying wet crops is not covered.

When December 10 arrives, and crops are still in the field, RMA indicates, “you may request additional time to harvest beyond the calendar date for the End Of Insurance Period (EOIP), from your crop insurance company.” USDA says its procedures allow crop insurance companies to authorize farmers to additional time to harvest, so any claims can be settled on the basis of harvested production.

You would qualify for extra time to harvest when 1) you give a timely notice of the problem to your agent, 2) your crop insurance company documents that the delay was due to an insured cause of loss, and 3) you can demonstrate that harvest was not possible due to insured causes, and 4) your delay in harvesting was not because you did have enough manpower and equipment to complete harvest by the December 10 deadline.

RMA is careful to say that just because you are given additional time to harvest does not mean the coverage period is being extended past December 10. It says you are being given extra time to harvest to determine the extent of any loss. If you lose some of the corn due to lodging or beans due to shatter loss, that would be covered, but if any of your crop is lost because of something you could have avoided, then that would be deducted from your indemnity check.

The Risk Management Agency urges you to document your field conditions and the action you are taking, and adds that you must make every effort to harvest your crop during the extended period. If you still do not get the crop harvested during the extended period, RMA says the crop is uninsurable.

Summary:
Very little harvest progress was made for either corn or soybeans during the past week in the Cornbelt due to inclement weather. More progress was made in harvesting soybeans than corn, however the majority of both crops remain in the field as of November 1. The extended harvest may well push against the December 10 end of the crop insurance period for corn and soybeans in the Cornbelt, and the USDA has alerted farmers to notify their crop insurance agent about their harvest progress so a potential extension can be made to harvest the crops beyond the deadline. USDA is not extending the deadline, but is allowing extra time to determine what the potential loss may be for insured crops.

You probably have many questions you would like to ask regarding grain drying procedures, shrink, test weights, and many other issues related to grain storage and whether the 2009 crop can be stored without quality deterioration. Helping answer those questions is Charles Hurburgh, grain quality specialist at Iowa State University. His recent newsletter will probably address many of the issues you already have.

1) Should fans be shut off during rainy weather to avoid pumping humid air into the grain? Hurburgh says keep the air moving, especially if you are using heat, because you do not have an unlimited amount of time and space to dry grain, and when you return to the field, you will need space to store wet grain that needs to be dried. If you are not using heat, keeping the fans going will depend on the moisture level of the grain. If corn is below 17% and beans are below 15%, the fans can be shut off if the outside air is below 50ºF. If the moisture is higher than those levels or the air temperature is warmer, then the fans should be kept running. He says, “Grain picks up moisture from the air at about one-fourth the rate at which it dries so rewetting over short periods is not usually an issue.”

2) If corn moisture is higher than the upper 20% range and the dryer cannot keep up with the demand on it, what options are there? Hurburgh says don’t count on much more drying in the field, and if ears are pointed up, some kernels may begin to sprout. He says natural air and low temperature drying will still work, but that is a slow process, and natural air will not finish drying this fall. Hurburgh says there is a solution, but it requires a lot of management, time, and labor. He suggests heated air drying for batches, then shifting it to a cooling bin, while another batch is transferred to the dryer bin. He says dry corn down to 24%, cool it, hold it at steady moisture with natural air, then redry it to below 20% moisture, and use natural air to finish the job.

3) What is the impact of low test weights for corn? Kernels did not fill completely with the lack of maturity of the corn crop, and test weights of dry corn are in the 52 lb range and the loss of weight per acre is about 5%. He says low test weight corn spoils faster, breaks more, and there will be storage issues next spring and summer. He says the problem should not be a concern to ethanol refiners, but livestock feeders should test for mycotoxins and should expect lower protein levels.

4) Soybean moisture levels are too high for storage, so how should they be dried? Hurburgh says beans will probably not dry much more in the field than they have at this point, and 15% moisture soybeans handle about like 17% moisture corn. He says natural air drying is best for soybeans, and November air should be able to dry them to 13.5%, which is sufficient for winter storage. If heated air is used, set a target for 14% moisture and hold with aeration or whatever is acceptable to the market. He says elevators are drying corn and are not set up to drying a second crop simultaneously. And he says if elevators have a few wet beans, they are blended with dry beans, if they have sufficient quantities. Hurburgh says crushers cannot handle wet beans because they will not split correctly and the hulls are hard to remove.

5) Why are elevators charging more for drying and increasing shrink levels? Hurburgh says elevators are not set up for drying beans, and that is best left to on-farm systems. Elevators attempt to calculate shrink by determining the remaining dry bushels after moisture is removed, and the lot of grain can be identified for settlement. Drying grain to the market acceptance level of 15% for corn and 13% for soybeans removes 1.18% percentage points for moisture for corn and 1.15% for soybeans. If the elevator is charging a 1.4% shrink factor, they are capturing 0.22% for a handling allowance, and that increases for each percent of moisture removed. Hurburgh says scientific tests have shown that grain elevators lose about 1% in storage and handling, and that loss is about 0.5% for on-farm storage beyond moisture removal. He says problems arise when discounts are levied for shrink, and it should be used for weight only since farmers need to know exact bushels delivered for production records. Hurburgh says drying costs charged by the elevator need to cover the variable costs of operating the dryer, plus the fixed costs return to the dryer investment. Farm dryers will have lower variable costs, but the fixed costs must be calculated as well, and that may equate what is charged by the elevator.

Summary:
Corn and soybeans may not dry much more in the field than they already have dried, and when the crops are stored on the farm, then care must be taken to avoid spoilage because of moisture levels that are too high for storage. Wet soybeans should not be dried with heat if possible, but outside air should maintain them through the winter. Corn will need heat to help remove moisture, but batch drying may be the only alternative for many farmers. Remove moisture in stages, hold with air flow, and then return to a drying bin for more heat as space is available. The inability of the crop to fully mature may result in lower test weights for corn, and that means breakage and potential storage problems. Commercial storage may result in shrinkage being applied to settlement sheets, which is an attempt to determine both water loss and handling loss.

At the outset of the week, 43 million acres of soybeans remained in the field and 63.5 million acres of corn were still standing. KS State marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says that is causing the market to talk about yield losses and quality problems. But he says there is no way to judge the impact until enough is harvested to give a good picture.

Despite the delayed harvest and its related problems, Woolverton says prices fell as farmers sold to capture the previously high prices, overseas buyers pulled back because of high prices, and “the anemic dollar gained in value.” But he says the market really turned down because of the longterm weather forecast for better harvest weather ahead. Woolverton says the dollar has been on a downward trajectory, and when that happens oil prices move back toward the $80 range and grain and oilseed prices follow the oil lead.

Woolverton says crop analysts have lowered private yield projections for corn and beans. He says if the national average corn yield is 160 bu., ending stocks will be 10% of usage, but he says if ending stocks drop below 10% of use, the supply tightens and prices rise. Read more.

Think about these issues, which Woolverton discusses in his newsletter:
1) 10-12 days of good weather will be needed for crops and fields to dry out, then soybean harvest will move faster than corn, which will slow from a drying bottleneck.
2) Market analysts say harvest lows are in when at least half the crop is harvested, which will be soon for soybeans but will take another week and a half for corn.

Don’t wait for “Indian summer,” says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, if your standing corn is too wet to harvest. He says stalk health and grain quality continue to deteriorate due to the processes of weathering and disease. Nielsen says grain moisture typically decreases not much more than ¼ to ½ a percentage point per day at normal temperatures.

Nielsen cites the average daily temperature in IN as 53º for October, but that drops to 42º for November. He says that explains why the rate of grain moisture loss in the field drops quickly in October and “flat lines” through November. He says if you factor in the cooler than normal October temperatures this year it is no surprise why grain moisture has not changed very significantly in recent weeks. He says don’t expect much more. Read more.

You may have moldy corn, but is it a real problem? OH State specialists say before abandoning a cornfield, make several determinations. They say ear mold may not be widespread within a field, and it may not be the variety that causes mycotoxins. Read: more about ear rots.
1) Walk you fields, and examine multiple ears for signs of ear rot.
2) If you have an ear rot, determine its variety and whether it produces mycotoxins.
3) If the mold is a hazard, determine how widespread it in throughout the field.
4) Examine 50 to 100 ears at multiple locations spread out throughout the field.
5) In the case of aflatoxin, a black light test should be checked if it fluoresces.
6) A positive black light test does not prove the toxins are present with the aflatoxin.

Moldy corn is being reported in MN, but plant pathologist Dean Malvick says identify it before taking action. He says most of the problem is superficial growth on kernels, and it may stop growing once the corn is harvested and dried. He says the more severe molds inside the kernel may produce mycotoxins and that restricts the potential use of the corn. Read more.

Gibberella ear rot has reached levels not seen in IN for decades, say Purdue plant pathologists. And the presence of gibberella has lead to reports of high levels of the mycotoxin DON, or vomitoxin. That poses a concern if the grain becomes livestock feed. Gibberella also produces zearalenone which can lead to livestock infertility.

The Purdue specialists say corn growers should scout remaining fields of corn and take note of areas and hybrids with ear rot problems. If gibberella is present with its pinkish discoloration of kernels, contact your crop insurance agent before harvest for instructions on whether to harvest the field, or leave a strip of corn for adjusters to examine.

Test your corn before feeding it to livestock, or even putting it in livestock feeders, say Purdue livestock specialists, who are concerned about the presence of mold and toxins:
1) Pigs will reduce feed intake if DON levels are above 2 parts per million.
2) Pigs will have complete feed refusal if DON levels exceed 10 parts per million.
3) Poultry is not as sensitive as hogs to the toxins produced by gibberella molds.
4) DON or vomitoxin under 7.5 parts per mil. will suppress the immune system in poultry
5) Lower test weights from diplodia changes the germ and endosperm proportions in a kernel of corn, shifting amino acid and energy balances of the livestock ration.

Wet corn? Depending on moisture above 15%, drying time with natural air could take up to 27 days at 60ºF, 36 days at 50ºF, or 40 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 21%. Consult this chart.

Wet beans? Depending on moisture above 13%, drying time with natural air could take up to 29 days at 60ºF, 38 days at 50ºF, or 42 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 19%. Consult this chart.

Dry soybeans with caution, says Purdue grain quality specialist Matt Roberts, since high temperature drying of 160-180º can lead to excessive cracking of the seed coat. He says there will be less cracking and fewer splits if the humidity is above 40%. He says, “For example, if outside air is 60°F with a relative humidity of 80%, it should not be heated above 80°F because when heated to that temperature air relative humidity will be 40%.” Read more.

Medium temperature soybean drying can be accomplished if beans have high levels of moisture and the drying occurs in a continuous flow dryer or a drying bin. Roberts says if seed quality is not a concern, beans may be dried at 120-140º, but limit exposure to not more than a half hour depending on how high the original moisture level was. He says when heat is added to the bin, make it intermittent, to avoid extended exposure.

Low temperature soybean drying can be done with natural air drying, and Roberts says that will allow 2-3 points of moisture to be removed if ambient air temperatures are adequate and humidity is low. But he says this process may take several weeks. He says the process can be speeded up if one layer is dried before more beans are added to the bin, or if the bin is equipped with stirrers that thoroughly mix the beans during drying.

If your combine is creating ruts in wet soils, that is no surprise, say IA State specialists who estimate a loaded grain tank and a 12-row header put 18-20 tons of pressure on the front axle of a combine. But they say those ruts will interfere with your 2010 crop, particularly in getting proper seed depth, as well as crop rooting and development.

Ruts from heavy equipment on wet soil will not be erased with deep tillage, if the soil is still wet, since it will not properly shatter. They say it will take freezing and thawing action to loosen the soil. They recommend waiting until spring to make a light tillage pass, and then only work those areas of the field where ruts remain. If the 2010 growing season shows the impact of ruts, consider deep tillage after next year’s harvest.

New IRS regulations have lengthened the time for farmland estates to be settled. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says in cases where environmental questions are unresolved, estates must remain open and assets cannot be distributed. He says those are new challenges for executors.

Hog prices are higher, but MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain wonder why. They report, “Slaughter in recent weeks has run 5-7% above mid-Aug. Therefore, these higher prices are not supply driven. The best guess is there is some improvement in exports since August and the increased spending on pork for October Pork month. Whatever the reason, it is appreciated.” But they warn, “The $70-plus summer 2010 futures for lean hogs may be influencing producers to slow or stop the decline in the breeding herd. The latest data show both sow and gilt slaughter below a year earlier.”

Improve your pasture productivity by increasing the livestock species that are grazing, says IL animal systems specialist Dean Oswald. Horses, cattle, goats, and sheep all graze at different heights and eat different plants. Therefore, rotating them all in the same pasture will allow better management of your forage, including weed control. Read more.

Managed grazing, says Oswald, allows several positive impacts for your forage:
1) Balance pressure on vegetation, protect natural resources, and reduce erosion.
2) Improve feed quality and quantity through proper forage management techniques.
3) Produce more pounds of livestock per acre, and diversify livestock sales.

The crop insurance deadline for planting wheat across the northern part of the Cornbelt has already passed, and it will soon pass for wheat farmers across the southern part of the Cornbelt. And there is a good chance you have not only been unable to plant wheat, but probably your wheat ground may still have 2009 crops on them and certainly your seedbed is not yet ready. Mother Nature is not yet done watering it for you. So, if you have not met the planting date requirements for sowing wheat and you had planned to insure it with a revenue insurance policy, there are some alternatives says University of Illinois Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey.

“Reaching the final planting date does not mean that wheat cannot be planted. Rather, guarantees will be reduced once the final planting date is reached. In addition, a farmer can choose to take a prevented planting payment and not plant wheat once the final planting date has been reached.” In a nutshell, that is Schnitkey’s message for those who are most concerned.

Delayed planting penalty
When your final planting date has arrived, and you have not yet planted wheat, there is a five day late planting period, in which the revenue guarantee drops 1% per day. However, that only gives you five days with a relatively small penalty, but if the sixth day arrives and the wheat is not planted, then the guarantee drops to 60% of your expected revenue, whether that is the initial or final guarantee, depending on the type of revenue insurance policy you have.

Prevented planting payment
If you have been unable to plant wheat because of the weather, or any other insurable cause, then you have the option to receive a prevented planting payment. Schnitkey says before the crop insurance company issues a prevented planting payment, it will have to be assured that your fields were too wet, and the reason was not the fact the field was full of uncut soybeans. A prevented planting claim must be filed within 72 hours of the final date for late planting, as well as including a report on the problem and the acreage involved. If you plant a spring crop, your prevented planting payment for wheat will be 35% of your guarantee, but a full payment would be issued if no spring crop is planted on the wheat acreage.

Strategy and considerations
Schnitkey says planting a second crop next spring will impact your APH yield for wheat, and it will be recorded as 60% of your APH yield. That will reduce your APH average in future years. However, yields may also be pulled down with late planted wheat.

Schnitkey also says most farmers will find a prevented planting payment advantageous. He says the size of it will outweigh the negatives of a decline in APH yields and the fact a spring crop may not be eligible for crop insurance coverage.

Summary:
Wheat growers are at the point of having to make decisions on what to do about crop insurance coverage if late harvest of row crops has prevented timely planting of wheat. The deadline is here for filing for prevented planting payments, if wheat ground remains too wet to plant. While there are minor deductions of benefits for the first five days after the deadline, the benefit drops to 60%. However, a prevented planting payment may be preferred over late planting benefits.

Currently, USDA is projecting a 13.018 billion bushel corn crop as calculated in the October Crop Report. Ag economists Daniel O’Brien and Mike Woolverton at Kansas State University report that level of production with the old crop carryover would supply just over 14.7 billion bushels, a volume that would be the largest supply on record. But they are not certain that amount of corn is really available because of the threats to the new crop. They say both quality and quantity are called into question due to crop immaturity when cold weather halted growth and the damage to the crop from 2009 weather issues. They speculate that unless damage or harvest delays are extreme, the corn crop should be at near record levels.

O’Brien and Wooverton have been tracking corn use by ethanol refiners for several years. They say the 2007-2008 marketing year shipped 3.049 billion bushels of corn to ethanol plants. During the 2008-2009 marketing year that volume climbed to 3.700 billion, and now it is forecast at 4.2 billion for the current marketing year. They say livestock feed has been the dominant use of corn for the past 35 years, but those prospects have moderated because of the economic struggle in the livestock industry to balance meat supply and demand.

On the periphery is the export trade, which is quite variable, and has been since 1973. The US is currently supplying over 60% of the world’s corn needs, but demand fluctuates annually and exports have been a “wild card” at the margin, say the economists. With US and global corn crops enlarging each year, there is not always going to be a significant global need for US corn. On the other hand, ethanol use has jumped from 24% to 32% of total demand in the last three years, and even other industrial uses of corn have steadily increased.

The Kansas State researchers compared corn ending stocks with the total use and found, “total use of U.S. corn over time has been relatively more stable than has ending stocks. Also, ending stocks-to-use ratios are typically used measure of the relative scarcity of corn supplies in comparison to use, and generally been inversely related to corn market price levels over time (i.e., high ending stocks-to-use ratios have been associated with lower corn prices, and vice verse).”

O’Brien and Woolverton believe there to be an adequate supply of corn available to meet the ethanol demand in the current marketing year, but that higher export demand will be complemented by lower feed demand. But over the coming 10 years, the prospects may be different. They say USDA economists are pushing ethanol demand to 5.05 billion bushels by 2018-2019 and that assumes a steady upward production trend, with feed use climbing to 5.850 billion and exports to 2.225 billion bushels.

The Kansas State economists contend if exports grow more than anticipated then corn ending stocks will be seriously affected, even with exports growing only 5% to 10% more than expected. Such a growth rate in the current marketing year would push stocks to use from nearly 13% down to 4%. And they say the result would be high US corn prices.

Summary:
As ethanol consumption of corn rapidly grows, there will be challenges to supply enough corn if there are moderate growth rates for other uses of corn. “However, the critical issue is that in the long run the availability of supplies of corn for ethanol production are directly dependent on developments in other segments of both the corn supply – demand complex. In turn, these other sources of corn use are dependent on the broader set of domestic and foreign economic influences affecting the agricultural markets in general.”

One of the most significant market dynamics is the delay in getting crops harvested. Futures prices have frequently responded to those delays and basis levels have improved as a direct result says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good in his weekly newsletter. But he agrees with you that continued delays could translate into lower yields from crop deterioration and harvest losses.

Good says prices will be a function of demand for corn and beans and the market is currently trying to determine the extent of that demand. Important elements of that will be the speed, timing, and extent of the economic recovery here and abroad. He says when consumers have more money to spend the meat market will recover and that will imply the need for more feed. And he adds that stronger energy prices will pull ethanol higher, but commodity prices will soften if those events do not materialize.

Dynamics in the soybean market are lead by the pace of exports, which are well ahead of the 2009 record year. China is responsible for the increased business, but as South American production becomes available, the market will watch for US exports to slow. Domestic use of soybeans is at a low ebb, both in crush and consumption. While stocks are ample, the inventories at processing plants means some demand weakness.

Dynamics in the corn market have been helped by a robust economy for ethanol refiners with reasonable returns from higher oil prices and moderate corn prices. Corn exports are on pace with last year, which declined from prior years, although the USDA target is 2.15 bil. bu. Feed use of corn will be known when the December Grain Stocks report is released in early January. However, demand is known to be weak because of low livestock prices, declining livestock numbers, and increased production of distillers’ grains.

Darrel Good says there will still be price uncertainty in weeks to come, but the past several weeks of higher prices have allowed some flexibility to be aggressive in marketing at harvest time. That uncertainty is also identified by MO marketing specialist Melvin Brees in his latest marketing newsletter. But Brees believes there is a significant potential in a lower corn crop than what is currently being forecast. He cites the sluggish harvest rate but also the fact that freezing temperatures halted maturity for one-third of the corn crop, and that will result in lower test weights and poor stalk quality. The stronger market prices, which Brees calls a “counter-seasonal price rally” have been at work in both the corn and bean markets, particularly tightening up the soybean basis. Brees is not one to ignore current cash bids, saying many of them are in the upper range of the USDA’s estimated prices for the year.

The corn market still signals storage to Brees because of the nearly 20 cent spread from December to May futures. And he says when that is coupled with the expected tightening of the basis, there would be a return to storage that would be profitable. However, he warns that prices must be booked, and any unpriced corn going into storage is at risk for a decline in value if the crop remains as large as is now forecast and harvest progress picks up.

Brees says there are even profits to be made in cash sales at some locations paying nearly $4 per bushel. And he says it would be risky to hold onto the crop awaiting some definitive market signal that has indicated prices have topped. He suggests stored corn should be booked for spring delivery to lock in profitable prices and if the basis weakens as harvest progresses, Brees says a hedge to arrive contract would protect the futures portion of the price while awaiting post harvest basis improvement.

The bean market still signals sales rather than storage because there is only a 7 cent carry in the futures market from November to March, which will not pay for either commercial or on-farm storage. He says soybean storage is a speculative process of hoping prices rise above the USDA’s forecast price range. While he advocates a cash sale, he says at least lock in the strong basis with a basis contract if you believe the futures market will rise. While the market carry has increased from September, Brees interprets that as a signal that demand is beginning to weaken with the advent of the South American crop. He is opposed to carrying unpriced soybeans into the spring, and says anyone wanting to speculate in that direction should use either the futures market or call options, both of which still carry significant risks.

Summary:
The slow pace of harvest and uncertainties about crop size have provided counter-seasonal strength to corn and bean prices, along with other market dynamics. Strong ethanol demand, but moderate feed and export demand mark the corn market, which is telling farmers to store with a 20 cent carry through May 2010. Tight supplies, a strong export demand, and weaker domestic demand for soybeans are telling farmers not to store beans priced or unpriced.

To begin on a positive note, you’ll be paying considerably less for nitrogen this fall than you did last year. High-fives everyone! Now, back to reality.

Nitrogen application this year is like any year; hold back until temperatures are below 50ºF, or apply it below 60ºF with the help of an inhibitor to ensure against nitrification. That is one of the primary messages from IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez in a recent newsletter. He says some forms of N are more susceptible to loss than others, and ammonium can either stay in colder soils, or be converted to a nitrate by soil organisms active in warmer soils. Even if applied properly in the fall, do not apply N if there is a potential for early spring leaching as sandy soils warm up prior to planting. He recommends getting a soil thermometer and taking regular readings at the 4 inch levels at the warmest part of the day.

Anhydrous ammonia is the preferred source of N because it will quickly react with soil moisture and remain in the ammonium form, either with the help of products such as N-Serve, or because cool soil temperatures retard bacterial activity. Fernandez reminds farmers to avoid volatilization loss by ensuring the soil closes behind the applicator knife and the ammonia is inserted deep enough to ensure the ammonia gas does not escape.

The stability of anhydrous ammonia is not present with other forms of N which are in nitrate form, such as ammonium nitrate or urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). Since they are nitrates, they are more susceptible to leaching and environmental loss and should not be applied in the fall. Fernandez says the lower efficiency of urea is due to the greater risk of nitrate loss before the corn is ready to use it.

Urea that is coated with polymer, which is also known as slow release or PCU are designed to retard that loss of nitrate. Fernandez says the jury is still out on the success of the product when used in the fall. At issue is the thickness of the polymer coating, its integrity, and handling issues, all of which are important for stability, but then you also want it to degrade at the right time so the corn can use the nitrogen.

There has been some renewed interest in the use of manure, poultry litter, and other organic fertilizers to provide N, as well as P & K. Fernandez says their application should be incorporated to avoid loss by volatilization. He says the N will be in an ammonium form that will quickly convert to a nitrate and be loss to leaching if soil temperatures are warm enough. But he says don’t apply manure to frozen soils, either, and be careful against an overapplication of phosphorus. That means, have your soil test results handy, and know the analysis of the manure.

So, how much do you apply? Just because it is cheaper this year does not mean you should apply more than last year. Use the N rate calculator to determine the rate that will return the most profit per pound of N. Since the calculator does not account for any carryover N, think about how much may already be in the soil. High yields will have taken out more. Low yields will have taken out less, but in the case of the latter, the wet 2009 spring may have consumed N before the crop began growing, so there may not be any excess. But remember, it is not necessary to make your entire N application before winter sets in.

And when do you apply it? Fernandez says the best time to apply N is in the spring when the corn needs it and there is little chance for it to leach or denitrify. He says if a full rate pre-plant application is not an option, apply a portion this fall, and the balance as a side dress application. You may, (or may not) have more time in the fall to apply nitrogen, and sometimes there are price considerations.

Summary:
Wait until soil temperatures at the 4-inch depth are below 50°F, or below 60°F if you are using a nitrification inhibitor. Do not apply N, or N with a nitrification inhibitor, if soils are prone to leaching. Use a nitrification inhibitor with anhydrous ammonia applications. Do not apply urea or nitrate-containing fertilizers in the fall. If using animal manure, make sure it is incorporated into the soil, and follow the time of application guidelines discussed for commercial N management. Apply the appropriate rate, taking into account leftover N when applicable, and consider applying only a portion of the total N needed in the fall and the rest in the spring. Consider the risks and benefits of fall N application. If fall application is appropriate, follow the recommendations here to help increase the efficiency.

Mark mid-November on your calendar. That is when MI State grain marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the size of the 2009 crop may be known. He says the October USDA report was based on Oct. 1 conditions, but a lot of crop damage happened after then. “The November 1 USDA crop production survey, to be released November 10 will give us a good update, but I suspect a lot of this corn will have to be harvested before we really know the condition.” Read more.

Hilker believes the crop estimate will decline when released in November, “For those that have to deliver at harvest, consider taking some of these prices even before delivery, and don't plan on paying commercial storage, the market is still saying it will not pay. Consider a basis contract if you want to stay in the market. For those with on-farm storage, the market is saying it will pay for using it. Your decision is: do you just wait to price, or lock in some of it now, i.e., hedge or H-T-A. You could do some of both, especially if corn prices have stayed the same or continued to go up after October 20.

The soybean crop estimate will also drop, thinks Hilker, because of crop damage. But he says the market will still not pay you to store beans, “While a few may be able to take advantage of some basis tightening right after harvest, everybody ought to be considering basis contracts, where you delivery the beans and get 80% of the price to start, or sell cash and buy futures if you want to stay in the market for the longer haul.”

Hilker’s bearishness on beans is due to South American production. He says Argentine production will be up 64% after the spring 2009 drought and Brazilian production up 9%; “And this is on top of US production expected to be up 9% this year. So play the market at your own risk, it may be that selling some $9.50 soybeans at harvest turns out to be pretty good. Or South American soybean production could bomb out.”

Wheat producers, says MI State’s Jim Hilker, have two problems if their 2009 crop remains stored and unpriced. He says, “The very low market price says the market doesn't want your wheat. And the spreads in the futures contract prices says the market does not want to pay commercial storage. The market says it will pay on-farm stored wheat about the net return of corn through March. But if you have on-farm storage space, greater than your need for corn, consider keeping your on-farm stored wheat.”

Wet harvests are costly. Costs may reach $100 per acre for drying and shrink says IL Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey due to high moisture levels in corn. He is concerned that your 2009 farm budget did not include that expense. Read his newsletter.

Your 190 bu. yield coming out of the field at 25% moisture may be 216 bu. in the truck but you are only selling 186 bu. at 15% moisture when 1.4% shrink is applied. The shrink loss of $15, plus $76 drying cost per acre mean a $91 revenue loss per acre.

Waiting for Mother Nature to dry your corn, will save money, but many farmers are reporting their corn is drying too slowly or not at all when left in the field. Schnitkey says field drying from 32% moisture down to 31% will save $13 per acre in drying costs. But he says consider the potential for field losses if corn remains standing.

Call several elevators and ask about their policies and calculations for drying and shrink. Schnitkey says you may find several variations, some of which may be more appealing than your nearby elevator, particularly if the corn is to be sold or stored. And he says some elevators base drying charges on wet bushels and others on dry bushels.

Immature corn will have trouble drying down, says ND ag engineer Ken Hellevang, and it will have low test weights and potential ear molds. He says the only way to stop those is either drying or ensiling. Hellvang has a newsletter with several grain drying tips.

Drying #1. Standing corn will only dry 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points per day, even with a warm temperature and a dry breeze, but that rate quickly declines with the calendar. Field drying is more economical until mid to late October and mechanical high temperature drying is more economical after that point says Hellevang.

Drying #2. Corn above 21 percent moisture should not be dried using natural air and low-temperature drying to minimize corn spoilage during drying. Hellevang recommends an airflow rate of 1.25 cubic feet per minute per bushel (cfm/bu) to reduce drying time. Adding heat does not permit drying wetter corn and only slightly increases drying speed.

Drying #3. Shelled corn can be stored in a grain bin at moisture contents up to about 25 percent if it is kept below 30 degrees using aeration. Corn kernels above about 25 percent moisture may freeze into a clump that causes unloading problems.

Drying #4. Use the maximum allowable drying temperature in a high-temperature dryer to increase dryer capacity and energy efficiency. Be aware that high drying temperatures result in a lower final test weight and increased breakage susceptibility in the corn.

Drying #5. Dryeration will increase the dryer capacity about 50 percent to 75 percent, reduce energy used by about 25 percent and remove about 2 to 2.5 points of moisture (0.25 percent for each 10 degrees the corn is cooled). Hellevang says with dryeration, hot corn from the dryer is placed in a dryeration bin with a perforated floor, allowed to steep for four to six hours without airflow, cooled and then moved to a storage bin.

Drying #6. Using the maximum drying temperature that will not damage the corn also can reduce energy consumption. The amount of energy required to remove a pound of water is about 20 percent less using a drying air temperature of 200 F than 150 F.

Drying #7. The estimated quantity of propane needed to dry is 0.02 gallon per bushel per point of moisture removed. Propane will cost about $53 to remove 10 percentage points of moisture from 120 bushels of corn using $2 propane.

1974 may have been the last time that diplodia, giberella, and other corn fungal rots were seen to this extent, says Purdue ag engineer Richard Stroshine. He says farmers are going to have to take extra precaution in storing and drying down grain this year. He says if your corn is moldy, remove as much of the broken kernels and fines as possible before storage, then dry it to 14% moisture and don’t expect it to store as well as usual.

You have a field of moldy corn. Do you blend it with good corn when putting it in the bin? Not now, says Stroshine, “Farmers may want to mix their corn with high levels of mold with their good corn, but my recommendation would be to segregate the good corn from the bad. It should be handled separately. Then if need be, it can be blended later."

Within fields, significant variation in grain moisture may exist among plants that died prematurely and those that matured more normally, say OH State agronomists. “In such fields, growers should be prepared for stalk lodging problems (associated with drought stress) that may slow harvest and contribute to yield losses. The loss of one "normal" sized ear per 100 feet of row translates into a loss of more than one bushel/acre.”

What is your soybean component content? IA State soybean agronomist Palle Pedersen says the September heat pushed soybeans to maturity, without completing pod fill. As a result protein values are a low 31-34%, and oil content is above average at 19+%. High protein meals will be 45-47%, but essential amino acids will not decline as much as protein, so the beanmeal will be potentially good for swine and poultry nutrition.

Soybeans that were frost damaged will have less extractable oil, and it will carry a green color, which must be removed with a high cost bleaching process. But for farmers green soybeans will carry pod pieces with them which are hard to separate. In the bin green or immature soybeans will spoil faster and the oil becomes rancid and value drops.

The late and immature beans will likely be wet, says IA State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh. He says, “Soybeans dry more easily than corn so air alone, or heat no more than 120F will be adequate. Monitor drying frequently to prevent overdrying. And he adds, wet soybeans should not be held in bunkers, piles, flat storages, sheds or other structures where airflow is not well distributed. Read his and Pedersen’s newsletter.

If you are frustrated over frost-damaged beans, Hurburgh says, “The best strategy is to aerate and store for 40-60 days before selling. The greenness may subside enough to be below the color threshold of the Grades. In cases of dispute over grading, submit the sample to a USDA licensed grading agency for resolution. Protein levels are likely to be below average; oil levels above average in Iowa soybeans.”

Your haste to harvest may have caused you to operate in fields with wet soils, and that may result in compaction with yield loss in future years. You may view that as the lesser of the evils, but there are some measures you can take to minimize compaction damage.
1) Restrict heavy equipment or truck traffic in fields to specific tracks or lanes.
2) Drive grain carts in prior combine tracks and avoid diagonal field crossings.
3) Keep trucks on the road, if possible, but if not, restrict them to the end rows.
4) Compaction is only reversed by wetting and drying, freezing and thawing over time.

If liming is on your to-do list, ensure that you are applying the correct amount. Two soils, both with a 5.5 pH, may need two different amounts of lime says IL agronomist Matt Montgomery. He says it all depends on whether the hydrogen ions are floating or attached to soil particles, and if floating, the soil may need twice as much lime. Consult with a fertility supplier or Extension specialist and ask about the Cation Exchange.

It’s pretty, but you probably would rather enjoy your spring without a healthy crop of butterweed in your fields. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says it will soon be emerging in your fields, particularly no-till fields, and his herbicide performance chart says fall applications do better.

Adverse harvest weather has been adverse to cow-calf producers says UT State livestock economist Dillon Feuz, “The result has been the corn price has increased about $0.50 per bu. That certainly has pressured feeder cattle prices lower. The other on-going and worsening situation is there continues to be no money in feeding cattle. While it appeared back in the spring that feedlots were poised to finally start making a little money feeding cattle, that hope disappeared through the summer and early fall.”

Feuz has a stern warning to cow-calf producers about their relationship with feedlots, some of which have become bankrupt. He says, “Certainly, those who remain in business have limited ability to bid up feeder cattle prices. While cow-calf producers never want to sell their calves too cheap to feedlots, they may actually want to this year, or there may be no feedlots left to buy their calves next year.”

What is the most economical feed for your livestock? (And don’t forget to factor in the moisture content of the corn or distillers’ grain). At that point it just got complicated, so you need the “Cost of Feedstuffs Calculator.” Find and download the calculator. The feedstuffs library includes 120 different feedstuffs comprising: 22 company co-products; 25 by-products; 5 new generation co-products; 27 forages; 11 grains; 9 crop residues; 12 silages; and 9 supplements. And you can include your own farm-produced feeds.

USDA’s price estimates of a $3.30 average price for 2009 corn and $275 per ton for soybean meal will help livestock producers say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. But they say the resulting $3-4 per cwt reduction in production cost is not enough to erase the red ink of the past year. They say the breeding herd needs to be cut substantially more than what the September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report projected.

The Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program was created in the 2008 Farm Bill to help farm owners and operators manage revenue risk and move away from subsidies based entirely on production. The ACRE program was not a guaranteed payment, since revenue loss thresholds, based on price and yield, had to be reached at both the state level and the farm level. Despite the extended sign-up period for ACRE, only 7.7% of eligible farms signed up and they accounted for only 13% of eligible program crop acres.

USDA’s announcement of the enrollment provided little surprise about the location of those signing up for the program. “Of the 22 different crops eligible for enrollment, corn had the highest number of base acres enrolled, followed by wheat and soybeans, and producers mainly planted these three crops. The states with the largest number of base acres enrolled are Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota.” Nationwide, 128,620 farms will be in the program.

Around the Cornbelt, that includes:
IL: 16.71% of farms, 22.98% of base acres
IN: 9.49% of farms, 15.46% of base acres
IA: 11.81% of farms, 16.34% of base acres
KS: 1.61% of farms, 2.82% of base acres
MI: 6.52% of farms, 12.55% of base acres
MN: 6.14% of farms, 10.02% of base acres
MO: 4.39% of farms, 8.07% of base acres
NE: 19.61% of farms, 24.82% of base acres
ND: 10.03% of farms, 15.45% of base acres
OH: 6.28% of farms, 10% of base acres
SD: 18.36% of farms, 26.34% of base acres
WI: 3.46% of farms, 7.16% of base acres

During the weeks and months prior to the sign-up period, nearly all farm management specialists and agricultural economists at Cornbelt Land Grant Universities strongly encouraged farmers to sign up for the program. Many of them who personally owned farmland publically indicated they had enrolled their farmland into the ACRE program. However, many farmers did not follow their lead, and were reluctant to step into the new farm program.
Was farmer reluctance to enroll in the program based on:
1) The complexity of the ACRE formula that would determine a payment?
2) The requirement for a four year commitment to the program without being able to opt out?
3) Revenue-based crop insurance being a better risk management tool?
4) Difficulty in getting absentee land owners to understand and buy into the program?
5) Not getting a payment from the program until 14 months after sign-up?
6) Lack of acceptable records to prove yields?
Your thoughts are welcome and encouraged. Enter your opinion, and do not worry about being identified.

Summary:
Initial results of the enrollment in the ACRE program have been released by USDA, and less than 8% of farms and less than 13% of eligible acreage was enrolled prior to the August 14 deadline. Cornbelt participation varied widely from nearly 20% of Nebraska farms to less than 2% of Kansas farms. The largest acreage enrolled came from IL, IA, NE, and the Dakotas. Farmer reluctance to participate could be rooted in a wide variety of concerns.

Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report indicated September feedlot placements were up 5% while marketings were down 4%. The difference shows a 1% increase in the feedlot inventory. Looking back at history, that is the first month in the past 16 that inventories have increased. They have all decreased since the spring of 2008. With the reports of a good corn crop and adequate supplies of feed, cattle feeders apparently see the potential for profits next summer.

At Iowa State, livestock economist John Lawrence puts it in terms of a “crush margin” and says that is the return remaining after accounting for the feeder steer and corn that is used to cover the other more constant expenses. His crush margin for feeder steers put on feed now and sold in March provide a crush margin of $178. That increases to $219 for November placements marketed in April, and $204 for December placements marketed in May. While his calculations decline, the crush margin remains between $100 and $160 for the next 12 months.

At Purdue, livestock economist Chris Hurt says he sees “a host of economic indicators suggest the recession has ended and the economy has more positive signs than negative.” In his latest newsletter Hurt lists those indicators as “the rise in the average length of work week, rising building permits, falling numbers of new claims for unemployment, and of course the rising stock market.” While he thinks inflationary investing has underpriced cattle, he says the fundamentals are positive for the beef industry.

Hurt saw the same numbers as Lawrence and projects a rise for Nebraska finished steers through the end of this year with cattle moving into the mid to higher $80s early next year. He does not expect the typical summer softening of the market and says summer 2010 should bring prices in the low to mid $90 range.

Hurt looked back on the impact of the recession, which took cattle prices from an average of $92 in 2008 to $83 this year. With a $10 climb anticipated, Hurt says cattle producers can “ride the recovery” as the US climbs out of the recession. But he is quick to suggest the need to grab a strong hold on reality and manage your potential risks. He says the recovery could be an anemic recovery, or there may be a second recessionary dip.

Hurt suggests cow-calf operators “stay long cattle at least for now.” He says retain ownership of calves for a longer period and consider feeding them out rather than selling them this fall. For feedlot operators, Hurt suggests, “waiting a bit to forward price the finished cattle in order to give inflation investors a little time to locate the cattle futures trading pit.”

Summary:
The beef industry is beginning to see the opportunity for an economic recovery with higher cattle prices in the coming year and changes in the cattle inventory. Feedlot placements are up more than marketings, and there is more money to be made with cattle placed in feedlots in the next several months than any time in the past 16 months. Livestock economists suggest that risks be managed to avoid unseen economic challenges, but they may be able to benefit from the recovery of the US economy.

Purdue’s Corn King, agronomist Bob Nielsen, says test weight is one of the 10 favorite discussion topics anytime farmers gather with a coffee mug in their hand, particularly on a rainy day during harvest season. His comments on test weight will help many producers understand the significance of what the grain elevator staff is trying to determine when it weighs and measures a sample of your corn.

The definition of #2 yellow corn requires that a volumetric bushel be 54 lbs. in weight. The 56 lbs that most farmers cite is for #1 yellow corn, which is the grade that usually originates on a Cornbelt farm in the fall. And Nielsen adds that US corn is marketed on the basis of a 56 lb. bushel regardless of test weight. Of course the elevator need not take an entire bushel to weigh, but will take a smaller sample that will be measured by its electronic moisture tester. Nielsen says, “These test weight estimates are reasonably accurate but are not accepted for official grain trading purposes.” While US grain standards include test weight, the moisture content has been removed, however the standard dry bushel cannot have moisture more than 15.5% or the buyer will impose a discount.

Test weight may be on the ticket, but it will show up primarily on the settlement sheet, because payment will be on the basis of 56 lb. corn. If kernel damage from diplodia or any other problem reduces the test weight, that 1,000 bushel truckload of corn quickly became 929 bushels of corn, since the test weight was 52 lbs. per bushel and not 56. Regardless of the volume of grain in the truck, its net weight will be divided by 56 lbs. for sale purposes. If your corn was more dense than the 56 lb. bushel standard, and a volumetric bushel weighed 60 lbs. then you would be paid for 1071 bushels, although the load was only 1,000 bushels by volume.

The density of the kernel is a function of many factors, one of which is the hybrid, but yield does not appear on that list of factors. And one hybrid can have one test weight in one field and a different test weight in another field. And it will vary from year to year as well, but its yield will not correlate with test weight, says Neilsen.

The test weight is an important factor for processors, since they will benefit from high test weight corn and their starch or oil output will be less efficient from a low test weigh corn. At least that is the conventional wisdom, whether or not research supports it, says Neilsen. One significant factor is that the quality of the lower test weight corn may be due to other factors that caused the reduction in test weight.

So, why did your corn this year have a low test weight? Neilsen says there were six potential causes of lower test weights for 2009 corn.
1) The wetter the corn, the lower the test weight. Corn weighs more than water, so dry corn weighs more than wet corn, and as corn dried in the field or the dryer it shrank, and picked up weight allowing more kernels to squeeze into that bushel volume. Therefore, when your wetter corn was tested at the scale house, it was destined to have a lower test weight.
2) Drought stress in a few spots around the Cornbelt this year.
3) Gray leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight.
4) Cooler than normal September temperatures that interfered with starch production in the kernel.
5) The early October freeze and frost which damaged immature kernels and halted the grain filling process.
6) Widespread damage from diplodia and other fungal ear rots, which deteriorated the quality of the kernel content desired by ethanol refiners, cattle feeders, and other end users.

Summary:
Test weight is an indicator of the density of the corn kernel and low test weights for many truckloads of corn in 2009 have resulted in farmers being paid less than they expected when delivering a truckload of corn. The same volume that may have measured 1,000 bushels in 2008 may have only measured 925 bushels in 2009 because of environmental factors that interfered with kernel development. Those may have included fungal issues, the early frost damage on immature corn, and the fact that wetter corn was being delivered, since wetter corn weighs less than dry corn.

There will be a solution to the issues, and that is the checks that are written for propane and electricity at your bin site. While those are not user friendly, there will be few alternatives according to grain management specialist Charles Hurburgh at Iowa State University. In a recent newsletter he says, “This would not be a good year to take chances that wetter corn will keep and can be absorbed in the spring/summer.” Hurburgh, an ag engineer, and agronomist Roger Elmore urge farmers to consider the shelf life of the grain, which is a function of the moisture and temperature of the grain. Their chart of maximum shelf life ranges from 150 month shelf life for corn at 13% moisture and 40ºF temperature to a 27 day shelf life for corn that is 18% moisture and has a storage temperature of 80ºF. If you have corn at that temperature and 24% moisture, it may go out of condition while you are eating lunch.

Hurburgh says temperature can be held constant with aeration, and unaerated grain will shorten its own shelf life as it gives off heat and moisture as it spoils. Corn with lower tests weights, such as that which has been impacted by diplodia or other fungi, will spoil about twice as fast as corn with higher test weights. And Hurburgh says shelf life will be used up the longer the corn is held in the bin at high moisture before being dried. He says the shelf life of grain will be determined by everything that is done to the grain from the point of harvest.
• Fines and cracked kernels will spoil faster, so check combine settings.
• Grain that starts to heat has used up its shelf life.
• Cool grain quickly and minimize variations between the field and the dryer.
• Aerate wet corn immediately, since overnight storage in a truck can impact the shelf life.

Three phases of aeration are recommended by Hurburgh:
1) Lower temperature by steps: low 40’s in Oct., high 30’s in Nov., and 28-35º in Dec.
2) Maintain temperature with intermittent aeration, 28-35º in Jan. & Feb.
3) Keep grain cold in the spring, seal fans, and ventilate headspace intermittently.
4) Do not store wet corn in bunkers or flat storage where airflow is restricted.

If your harvest progress exceeds your ability to haul corn to the elevator, Hurburgh suggests a phased approach to drying, despite the extra labor involved. He says dry to 17-19% moisture, then finish your drying after harvest is complete. If you are storing for any length of time, keep the corn with the heaviest test weight for the longer haul, and move your lighter test weight corn out as soon as possible. Hurburgh reminds farmers to not mix corn from two harvests because the old crop may have mold that will spread with the help of the warmer and wetter new crop. He also recommends removal of the center core and use a temperature probe every two weeks.

Summary:
Grain storage will be a significant challenge, because of the potential for mold in the harvested grain, and the fact that short harvest windows are forcing a lot of wet grain to be harvested and put into the bin. Grain needs to be aerated and temperature gradually reduced over the next two months to bring the grain temperature down to where it can be held into the spring without spoilage. Wet grain needs to be dried, but with high moisture grain being harvested, a two phase approach may allow some initial drying to retard spoilage, with final drying after harvest is complete.