farmgate: Extension Updates Archives

November 20, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Cornbelt Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Corn price strength is due to harvest delays and ethanol according to the calculations of IL marketing specialist Darrel Good, who says favorable blending margins for ethanol and reduced Brazilian imports have allowed prices to move sharply higher. He says, “The EPA ruling on increasing the limit on blending from 10% up to 15% will be important for determining domestic market size moving forward.” The US EPA had wanted to finalize its decision by December 1, but Good doubts that date will hold.

Corn exports have faded, and are below the volume needed to meet USDA’s forecast of 2.1 bil. bu. for the marketing year. However, the rate of feed use is uncertain. Darrel Good says higher rates of feeding may occur due to the poor crop quality, but on the other hand, the poor corn quality may push livestock feeders to use alternative feeds. Read more.

Soybean prices have been supported by strong export business, and nearly 70% of the USDA forecast for the year was reached earlier this month. However, they will fade quickly when South American soybeans come to market early in 2010. The domestic crush has increased and may exceed USDA expectations says Darrel Good. But he says the crush reflects the poor crop quality and lower yield of protein meal and soybean oil.

If you are selling, Good says thank the low value of the dollar and the strength in the US financial markets. While the low dollar allows importers to purchase more, Good says, “There is no historical statistical relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and the volume of marketing year exports. He expects stronger prices from harvest delays.

Sell the corn carry, recommends MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. He says, “The carrying charges from the nearby December futures contract to the deferred March, May and July contracts are very large – the market is sending a very strong signal to store grain and sell the carry.” Read his thoughts.

How do you sell the carry? Usset suggests a hedge-to-arrive contract. “Selling the carry with a hedge-to-arrive or a futures contract has several advantages including (1) a solid hedge against lower prices in the months ahead, (2) the opportunity to earn a return to storage equal to the size of the carry and a stronger basis next year and, (3) the ability to defer income to next year.” He’s expecting improvement in the basis in the spring.

Late and drawn out harvests mean the basis will be stronger than usual during the harvest period and less likely to appreciate when harvest is completed, compared to a typical year. Purdue’s Chris Hurt says that is a reduced incentive to store the crop, and producers should use pricing alternatives that establish the basis, such as selling cash out of the field, a basis contract, or a minimum price contract.

What are your storage costs for grain? IA grain marketing specialist Bob Wisner says, “The proper use of storage will increase a producer’s income. However, maximum storage income results from selective rather than continuous use of storage facilities.” Calculate your cost.

What is the discount schedule at your local elevator? Purdue economist Corrine Alexander says it may be different from the one down the road, and you should inquire. She asked 6 Midwestern elevators about drying charges and found they ranged from 32¢ to 55¢ per bushel. Additionally, discounts for mold and other quality issues have a wide discount range. Discounts on 10% damaged corn ranged from 5¢ per bushel to 15¢.

But what about low test weight? That issue and others will require a sample taken by a specified professional and tests run by certified labs before the grain is stored. Purdue’s George Patrick says limited discounts on corn are unlikely to result in indemnities, unless your production yield met the requirements specified for your insurance coverage.

Ear rots and other quality issues will trigger insurance payments if claims are filed properly. Purdue economist George Patrick says, “Insurance based on individual farm performance (APH, CRC, RA, and IP) does provide coverage. County‐based insurance (GRP and GRIP) do not cover losses due to quality on individual farms. If the county average yield (GRP) or revenue (GRIP) falls below the guarantee level of a producer, then an indemnity may result.” High levels of mycotoxins are insurable losses also.

If your stored corn is moldy, Purdue’s Linda Mason has several concerns for you. She says the mold in your bin will create more problems if you are unable to dry it down.
1) The hairy fungus beetle and foreign grain beetle feed on mold, not the corn itself.
2) Bins with mold growing are above 55ºF and will allow insects to breed and multiply.
3) Insect issues in the spring can be addressed with a top-dress insecticide or fumigation.
4) Moldy grain should be dried to 12-14% moisture at a lower heat and for a longer time.
5) Sample corn more often than usual, especially if you have warm spots in the bins.

If you are storing moldy corn, MO ag engineer Charles Ellis says moisture migration can exacerbate mold problems in winter. As temperatures drop, warm air can rise in the center of the bin, cooling when it reaches the cold grain near the surface. This results in moisture condensation, leading to rapid spoilage when spring brings higher temperatures.

If your corn is lodging, find out why, and MN specialist Ken Ostlie says it may be rootworms, corn borer, or stalk rots and each produces a different lodging pattern. Read more.
1) Stalk rots weaken the stalk internally and plants break at different heights.
2) Corn borer tunnels weaken the stalk and plants bend over above ground.
3) Rootworm feeding on roots reduces standability and plants will lodge at the roots.

Lodged corn can be a pain to harvest and every field is unique. Ostlie’s offerings:
1) Harvest the worst first to reduce harvest losses and don’t postpone aggravation.
2) Plastic snouts work better than metal, and waxing them may even help.
3) Combine against the direction of lodging, or at worst, crossways of the field.
4) Expect higher moisture levels and extra drying costs. Lodged corn dries little.
5) Post harvest repairs may be higher from plugged headers, rocks, and more wear.

Field losses accelerate after mid-November, and can range from 0.5% to 2% per week of harvest delay, although loses may be higher or lower in individual fields based on a variety of other conditions. Losing 1 ear per 100 feet equals the loss of 1 bushel per acre.

If diplodia was an issue this year, rotate to another crop next year. MO plant pathologist Laura Sweets says the fungus will survive in the corncob and stover and be ready to perform in 2010. She said crop rotation will help prevent repeat problems.

For livestock feeding, moldy corn can be diluted with good corn, soybean hulls, hay, and other feed sources. DDGS is a good feed source, but if it was made from moldy corn, the ethanol fermentation destroys the mold but multiplies any existing toxins threefold.

Large amounts of BCFM are causing some loads of corn to be rejected, and WI ag engineers say adjust your combine to ignore it. Part of that is selecting a ground speed that does not overload the combine. Minimize the material entering the header and set your concave to the approximate diameter of a shelled corn cob.

Have you hired an extra combine and operator to help you get caught up? The cost may have you thinking about the costs of combines versus custom harvesting and thousands of dollars may be involved to your benefit or detriment. IA economist William Edwards has a calculator to help.

Your fall tillage may not happen if soils remain saturated. MN specialists are concerned about compaction and smearing, and those will delay a quick dry out next spring for timely planting. They recommend filling in ruts and keeping your tillage shallow. Read more.
1) “Frost tillage” is for slightly frozen soil. Equipment is supported on a 1” frost layer.
2) Avoid compaction with proper tire air pressure and axle loads under 10 tons.
3) On wet soils, use the lightest tractor that can still get the job accomplished.
4) Spring fields with heavy residue may be good candidates for soybeans or spring wheat.

How much crop residue exists when you plant in the spring? A new IA State website calculates it for you based on the prior crop, types of tillage tools used, and your planter. Just with a field cultivator with 12-20” sweeps and a planter with a furrow opener, only 33% of your bean stubble from the prior crop remains for spring planting. Find the website.

Weedy wheat fields may appreciate your attention. OH weed specialists report, “Herbicides are most consistently effective on winter annuals and dandelion when applied in fall. For most of the herbicides with activity on winter annual grasses, labels specify that control is maximized through application in fall. A dense population of winter annuals may have already suppressed wheat growth by the time a spring treatment can be applied, especially if the spring application is delayed into April.”

Dairy and other livestock producers have been losing money for months, but prospects for turnaround are delayed to 2010. If you have been losing $1,000 per month on a dairy cow or have other losses, IL specialist Dave Fischer says go back to production basics:
1) Maintain working capital, compute a cash flow, and don’t surprise your lender.
2) Maximize income over feed cost, which means keep your efficiency with good feed.
3) Don’t cut costs which will negatively affect livestock performance and health.
4) Liquidate any unused assets which may help provide cash flow for coming months.
5) Care for yourself and your family by maintaining communication and social network.
6) Strategize for the future while looking for opportunities to strengthen the present.

The downturn in meat demand has lasted more than a year say IA livestock economists and the demand for high quality whole cut beef has taken the biggest hit. From Jan. to Sept., spending on restaurants is down 2.6% and home cooked beef is down .5%.

Friday, Nov. 13th was a red letter day for pork producers. MO livestock economist Ron Plain says as of last week, pork producers lost more money in the recent downturn than they did in the price collapse a decade ago. He says for the past 24 months, the average hog lost $19.18 per head, which is a $4.6 bil. loss for the pork industry in those 2 years.

For the next year, Ron Plain of the Univ. of Missouri offers little optimism for pork profitability. He thinks live hog prices will average $43-47, which is up $3-6 from this year, but production cost is now $52, even if it is down from $62 this past summer. The anchors holding back profitability are the references to “swine” flu, weak domestic consumer demand, and a 15% oversupply of hogs, compared to the current demand.

Land values in the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank district rose 2% for the third quarter of 2009, based on a survey of local bankers. But currently, the price of “good” farmland is 4% less than it was at this time last year, and that makes the third successive quarter that land values were less than they were 12 months earlier. Land values in the northern 2/3 of IL dropped 4% from 2009 and IA land values are 7% less than they were in 2009.

Farmland prices will stabilize, 69% of bankers told the Chicago Fed, but 27% expect a decline, and most bankers believe farmers generally will back away from land purchases. The reason for the trend was a diminished earnings stream because of grain markets, lower net cash earnings, and high input costs that will reduce profitability.

The Chicago Fed survey did not find much change in credit conditions from 3 months ago, but 25% of local bankers say there is an increase for non-land loans compared to a year ago. 21% of bankers said repayment rates were lower and 24% of bankers reported an increase in loan renewals and loan extensions compared to late summer of 2008.

Bankers are telling the Fed to expect a surge in forced farm sales and liquidation of assets among financially stressed farmers and particularly livestock producers this fall and winter. Also, IN and IA bankers forecast increases in grain storage construction. Read more.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:50 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

November 13, 2009

Cornbelt Update

USDA fine tuned its yield estimates earlier this week, but most market watchers are waiting for the 2009 Final Report to be issued in January. With the monthly estimates now in place, IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says the market will be watching the pace of harvest, crop progress in South America, and how the market perceives the demand. Read more.

There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 corn crop:
1) The average yield dropped 1.3 bu. to 162.9 bu. per acre
2) State average yields dropped 5 bu. per acre in IL, IA, and MS.
3) State average yields increased in CO, KY, MN, TN, and WA.
4) Brazilian corn acres, yield, and production estimates were reduced by USDA.
5) USDA estimates were cut 50 mil. for exports and carryout dropped to 1.625 bil.
6) The estimated price range for the marketing year was raised 20¢ to $3.25 to $3.85.

There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 soybean crop:
1) The average yield was raised 0.9 bu. to 43.3 bu. per acre.
2) USDA increased its state estimates by 3 bu. per acre for IN and KS.
3) Average yield estimates were lowered by AR, GA, MS, TX, and IA.
4) The So. American soybean crop estimate was raised 80 mil. bu to 4.623 bil.
5) So. American crops began with early dryness, but will be helped by El Nino.
6) USDA raised export estimates slightly due to more imports by China and the EU.
7) USDA raised ending stocks to 270 mil. bu. and the national average price to $9.20.

There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 wheat crop:
1) the 2009 wheat harvest was adjusted down 4 mil. bu. to 2.216 bil. bu.
2) More wheat in the Russia region will mean US exports will drop by 25 mil. bu.
3) USDA raised its estimate for wheat carryout by 21 mil. bu. to 885 mil. bu.

Corn demand remains high says IA St. economist Chad Hart, with 4.2 bil. bu. headed to ethanol plants. “Crude oil prices have risen to the upper $70s per barrel range and this has helped ethanol margins remain positive over the past few months.” He says based on production so far this year, 2009 ethanol production should reach 10.8 bil. gal. Read more.

Soybean demand is export-focused says Chad Hart at IA St. Currently, USDA is expecting soybean exports from the new crop at 1.305 bil. bu., which would surpass the 2008 record, and Hart says the sales pace has been strong. China has already booked over 500 mil. bu. of US beans, equal to the amount that would be produced in Iowa.

Update your marketing plan. MI St. economist Jim Hilker reports:
1) Mar corn has an 80% probability of being $3.10 to $5.19, with midpoint at $4.01.
2) Jul corn has an 80% probability of being $2.86 to $5.92, with midpoint at $4.11.
3) Dec corn has an 80% probability of being $2.64 to $6.57, with midpoint at $4.16.
4) Mar beans has an 80% probability of being $7.99 to $11.75, with midpoint at $9.68.
5) Jul beans has an 80% probability of being $7.22 to $12.91, with midpoint at $9.65.
6) Nov beans has an 80% probability of being $6.59 to $13.63, with midpoint at $9.47.

“My post-harvest strategy for soybeans this year is straightforward; sell every bushel at harvest,” says MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. He says there is no carry in the market and no incentive to store. He says the harvest basis is good, and a $1 premium is too expensive for at-the-money July call options. Read more.

However, there is carry in the corn market, says MN economist Usset. “The current carrying charge of 32½ cents from December to July will cover interest costs of holding grain in storage nearly four times over. According to my records, the current corn carry of 370% of interest costs at harvest time is the fourth largest since 1990 (2001, 2004, and 2005 were slightly larger). To him a “large” carry is 140%, and that is exceeded now.

Grain marketing tip#1. OSU’s Steve Prochaska says “Grain marketing should be based upon probabilities. This may seem like gambling, but a farmer who plants a crop in the spring is using a probabilistic approach. A farmer believes that there is a good chance a crop will be produced to market in the fall. This type of thinking is based on probability.”

Grain marketing tip#2. OSU economist Steve Prochaska says, “Farmers cannot consistently predict major market moves and therefore should not speculate excessively.” And he adds, “Grain marketing should be based on your risk bearing ability. If you have many debts to service, you should not allow marketing opportunities to pass when the total costs of production can be paid and therefore debt be serviced.”

Four weeks remain before the end of the insurance period for Cornbelt row crops such as corn and beans, and IA St. ag economist William Edwards suggests a call to your crop insurance agent with a harvest update. Additional time for harvesting must be requested before Dec. 10. USDA will not cover damage to the crop after that time, but will allow extra time to complete harvest so insurable damage can be evaluated.

Financial pressure is increasing on farmers, and ag economists in MN say there has been a 55% increase in the number of notices filed by lenders that are eligible for farmer-lender mediation services. In the past year there have been nearly 1,200 requests for mediation, which is an 86% increase over 2008. MN Extension reports that $322 million in farm loans are now in mediation, which is more than double the amount in 2088.

Large changes in feed costs and market values are causing the financial stress, says MN economist Brian Buhr, and he says, “Many well-managed operations are experiencing financial stress.” MN law requires mediation be offered before foreclosure proceedings.

Wet corn is a problem for everyone and KS St. specialist Dirk Maier says don’t worry about getting it to 15% moisture right now. He says use a 2-stage method to drop the moisture to 19-20%, transfer it to another bin and let the moisture even out through the grain. After 6-12 hours, turn on the air, remove 2 points of moisture and it can be stored through the winter. Use a warm spring day to drop the moisture to 15% for the summer.

Corn kernels can be damaged with high heat says Maier. Heat over 200ºF can be used on corn over 18% without damage. But if that level of heat is used to drop moisture levels to 15%, then kernels are damaged. He also says don’t remove more than 5 points of moisture per hour, or the quality of the corn will deteriorate. Frost damaged corn that has test weight at 50# or less should not be stored long and sold by springtime.

Harvest wet, or let it dry? If you are in a quandary over whether to harvest and pay for drying or let it field dry, OSU agronomists retrieved a study they made several years ago:
1) Results showed that nearly 90% of the yield loss associated with delayed corn harvest occurred when delays extended beyond mid-November.
2) Grain moisture decreased nearly 6% between harvest dates in Oct. and Nov. Delaying harvest after early to mid Nov. achieved almost no additional grain drying.
3) Higher plant populations resulted in increased grain yields when harvest occurred in early to mid-October. Only when harvest was delayed until mid-November or later did yields decline at plant populations above 30,000/acre.
4) Hybrids with lower stalk strength ratings exhibited greater stalk rot, lodging and yield loss when harvest was delayed. Early harvest of these hybrids eliminated this effect.
5) The greatest increase in stalk rot incidence came between harvest dates in October and November. In contrast, stalk lodging increased most after early-mid November.
6) Harvest delays had little or no effect on grain quality characteristics such as oil, protein, starch, and kernel breakage.
7) In this study, yields averaged across experiments, populations and hybrids decreased about 13% between the Oct. and Dec. harvest dates. Most of the yield loss, about 11%, occurred after the early-mid Nov. harvest date.

If you are greeted by ruts when harvest is over, consider fall repairs if the ground is dry enough. IL crop specialist Dennis Epplin says ruts will hold water and crop residue will not be spread evenly. He says level, non-HEL ground can be tilled with some difficulty, but HEL ground may require special repair treatments when the soil is dry enough. He says consider seeding a temporary cover crop if conditions permit and consult NRCS.

Let weeds in wet fields go until spring. That’s the recommendation of MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley, who says attempts to spray will tear up fields, and the spray used this fall can be used early in the spring. And he says that will address any problems with winter annuals and will have some impact on early summer annual weeds. Bradley says colder temperature inhibits the effectiveness of glyphosate and other herbicides.

Spread your fertilizer this fall or next spring, but OSU agronomists say avoid spreading it on frozen ground, “Applications made to fields with any appreciable slope can result in significant fertilizer losses. Not only do these losses represent an environmental concern, but they also represent an economic loss for your operation.” They also recommend that P & K be brought up to critical levels, even if you had good yields this year at low levels.

Soybean aphids were counted in high densities in August and September, but when they arrived on their winter homes on buckthorn, they unexpectedly died, apparently from a fungal infection. OSU entomologists admit they do not know what that means for 2010, since there was a large mortality and lack of egg deposition, and they say remain alert.

2010 budget #1. NE economists say, “The price of diesel fuel used in the 2009 budgets was $4.00 per gallon, compared to $2.00 per gallon for the 2010 budgets. While this price for fuel may be a little low for 2010, using a round number such as $2.00 allows for easy adjustments should prices change.” They say adjust to your own situation.

2010 budget #2. NE economists say from 2009 to 2010, fertilizer prices have changed even more than fuel. “The largest negative price change has been for 10-34-0, which went from an estimated price of $6.84 per gallon in 2009, to $1.90 per gallon in 2010. While changes in other fertilizer prices have not been as dramatic, the average of fertilizer prices used for the 2010 budgets is about 37% of the 2009 budget prices.”

2010 budget #3. NE economists looked at herbicide prices and report, “The change in herbicide prices are a mixed bag. The price of glyphosate dropped from $0.35 per ounce in 2009 to $0.16 (46 percent of 2009) in 2010, while AAtrex 4L® increased from $4.75 per pint in 2009 to $6.00 (126 percent of 2009) in 2010.”

2010 budget #4. “The price of seed utilizing new GMO technology appears to be higher than for those numbers available in past years. However, since fewer refuge acres are required and projected yields are greater using these new hybrids, the extra price for seed may be wholly or partially offset. The 2010 estimated crop budgets show similar cost per unit of production, using the new GMO technology verses the technology of prior years.”

Stability in land prices is being forecast by IL ag economist Gary Schnitkey based on a survey of farm managers and farmland appraisers. He says half expect land prices to decline slightly and 32% expect stable prices. Based on that, Schnitkey says cash rents that rose nearly 30% in the last four years should stabilize between 2009 and 2010 levels. He says cash rent rarely falls, and it would take 2 years of low returns to drop rents down.

Livestock producers concerned about corn quality, molds, and values of damaged grain will want to connect with a webinar being presented Nov. 18 and Dec. 1. Both will be held from 12 noon to 1 p.m. over the Internet. Topics to be covered include molds and mycotoxins, storage alternatives and use of proprionic acid, value of wet corn, feed value of immature corn. Find registration details here.

With problems of moldy corn, “Farms that feed their own corn absolutely need to test this year to avoid these problems,” says MO swine specialist Marcia Shannon. She says if corn has more than 5ppm of vomitoxin pigs will start vomiting, and will refuse to eat if the corn has more than 10 ppm. Breeding disruptions will occur in the breeding herd.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:08 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

November 6, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Fair weather allowed harvest progress to be made this week, but the market will be wondering just how much when it is announced Monday afternoon. Combines were slow to get into the field because soils had to dry as well as grain. With elevators removing 10 points of moisture or more from the corn, instead of 5 points or less, the volume of grain to be dried caused many elevators to observer shorter hours of dumping grain.

The most rapid weekly corn harvest rate in recent years was 16% says IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, who says fast harvest paces usually occur in the middle of harvest. He says if 25% of the crop had been harvested by Nov. 1, another 16% this week would mean it will take 5 more weeks to complete the corn harvest. But he is quick to say that cannot be sustained, because of weather, storage, and shipping dynamics.

The most rapid weekly bean harvest rate in recent years has been 20 to 24% of the crop says Darrel Good. And he says if 50% of the soybeans were harvested by Nov. 1, then it still appears to him that soybean harvest could still extend into December. Read his newsletter.

The Nov. 10 USDA Crop Report will be important in determining the impact of harvest conditions, says Good, who notes that crop diseases, low test weights, above average field losses, and quality deterioration have all become potential problems. And he says extreme weather in some areas may result in increased acreage that is abandoned.

Don’t wait for corn to dry very much says IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger. He says, “Expect on average for grain moisture to change very slowly in November. Expecting it to drop by as much as a point per week is optimistic.” While the weather has been damp since maturity, upright ears have trapped water and cobs are holding onto water. He also says test weights will rise 2-4 lbs. when they are taken after the corn has dried down.

As corn weathers in the field, expect yield losses says Nafziger. He says kernel weight will drop if mold is growing on and in kernels. Ears that are vertical will capture water and base kernels will begin to sprout in warmer temperatures. But he says two big threats are stalk failure that will allow ears to fall to the ground and a quick dry down in good weather that will weaken cobs to the point of losing kernels at the combine header.

Many elevators are reporting low test weights on corn, and some loads have been discounted. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says there is little research that correlates test weight with yield, and there is no indication that low test weight corn is an inferior livestock feed. Nielsen says test weight and moisture content go in opposite directions, since the dry matter in the corn is heavier than water. Drier corn has higher test weight.

Why is test weight low this year? Purdue’s Bob Nielsen says there are several reasons:
1) Late season foliar disease and cool Sept. temperatures reduced photosynthetic activity.
2) The October freeze damaged late developing and immature corn and stopped grain fill.
3) Ear rots damaged kernels, causing light weight and chaffy grain with low test weight.

Do you harvest or wait for dry down? IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if the crop is standing well, then waiting for the loss of a few more points of moisture may pay, even though it is risky. He says 200 bu. corn at $3.50 with drying and shrink valued at 4¢ per bushel will save you $8 per acre for each point of moisture that is removed naturally.

Harvest it or leave it for the winter? Northern Cornbelt producers may weigh that thought, but WI specialists say the real question is: “Will the revenue lost by winter crop damage be less than the cost of drying this fall?” Their table demonstrates that a 20% to 37% yield loss that could be expected will not offset drying charges after harvest. Read more.

The drying process will also help maintain quality, according to MN ag engineer Bill Wilcke, who prefers the use of high temperature drying over low temp systems. He says, “Higher temperature dryers aren’t likely to run hot enough to kill the molds, but they do slow mold growth by reducing the grain’s moisture content. The agitation of the grain during high-temperature drying is also likely to rub off some kinds of molds.”

On-farm drying equipment may require more than the normal amount of maintenance because it is being used around the clock. Ontario ag engineer Helmut Spieser suggests checking interior drier screens daily to prevent material buildup. He says that prevent airflow and that will reduce throughput. And that buildup also causes dryer fires.

What is your drying temperature? Your initial thought is to raise the temperature on high moisture corn to maintain dryer capacity. But if corn is not increasing in test weight after it has passed through the dryer, then the drying temperature is too high. Spieser says drop the plenum temperature in increments to gain test weight. He says since every kernel has a different moisture content, each pass through the dryer will reduce the moisture by the same amount, but since each was starting at a different moisture they will not all be uniform after drying. Spieser says manage that with adequate aeration.

Here is Spieser’s checklist for successful grain drying practices:
1) Higher drying temperatures usually result in lower grain quality
2) Reduce drying temperatures to maintain or increase test weight
3) Monitor immature corn for caramelization (if the milk line remained)
4) Kernel to kernel moisture content will vary both before and after drying
5) Storage aeration should bring wetter and drier kernels to nearly the same moisture
6) Keep kernel temperatures below 120oF to 140oF
7) Consider two-stage drying: 18% in the field and 15% in the bin
8) Two stage drying will allow the drying season to proceed

New corn to be fed to livestock may need to be tested for mycotoxins, which could cause critical health issues for cattle. Those come from a variety of molds, which have reduced test weight, and degraded both the quality and nutrient content. However, to test the grain, the critical issue is obtaining a sample that is representative of the corn destined to be fed. Small amounts can be taken periodically from a combine or grain card until a sufficient amount is collected. Have it tested within a week at a reputable laboratory.

Both molds and mycotoxins in corn can cause herd health issues. MN livestock specialist Jim Linn said certain animals are more susceptible, “At heightened risk for mold and mycotoxin health and disease problems are young animals, breeding animals and lactating dairy cows, with swine and poultry species more susceptible to these problems than ruminants. Mycotoxins in large doses can cause acute health, reproduction and production problems. However, the most likely scenario with feeding of moldy and/or mycotoxin containing feeds is a higher incidence of general, chronic health problems, poor reproduction and overall poor animal growth or milk production.”

But how much can be fed? That varies according to age and specie of the animal says MO specialist Marcia Shannon, who first recommends buying clean grain for your livestock. “Thus, some moldy feed may be fed to beef cattle. Feeder cattle should be able to safely consume levels five to 10 times higher than swine and dairy. Thus, ruminants older than 4 months can withstand 10 to 20 ppm of vomitoxin. Signs of toxicity with vomitoxin/ deoxynivalenol (DON) are usually feed refusal or feed intake reduction. At concentrations of 5 to 10 ppm vomitoxin vomiting is observed in swine. Read her newsletter.

Once more around with corn molds. Many farmers are continuing to find molds in corn which can be summarized.
1) Diplodia ear rot (white) has been widespread, but does not produce mycotoxins.
2) Giberella ear rot (pink) is also present and creates vomitoxin or DON and zearalenone.
3) Fusarium is less prevalent (white starburst) and produces fumonisin toxins.
4) Penicillium (blue-green) affects the kernel embryo and produces mycotoxin.
5) Cladosporium (blue-eye mold) grows when kernels killed early and harvest is delayed.
6) When combining moldy corn adjust for minimum damage and maximum cleaning.
7) Moldy grain should be dried below 15% for long term storage.
8) Moldy grain should always be tested for mycotoxins before being fed to animals.
9) Adding a mycotoxin binder to feed can reduce the impact of toxins in digestion.
10) DDGS can also contain mycotoxins, but are much more concentrated than in corn.

Crop insurance policies protect you against grain quality problems, in case your grain is low grade, low test weight, excessive kernel damage, musty, or have mycotoxins that reduce its use as a livestock feed. MO economist Ray Massey recommends contacting your crop insurance agent for help in documenting your problem with samples collected by an adjustor. Those samples need to be obtained while the grain is still in the field. Read more.

Regardless where you are in the Cornbelt, you may have issues related to the late maturity of crops and challenges in harvesting because of inclement weather. MN Extension specialists have assembled a wide variety of resources from numerous universities to address those problems at a special website.

Crop specialists in MN, where immature crops are a significant issue, are telling farmers to put their priority on soybeans, regardless of moisture levels. And they say store them with a high volume of air continuously for several months, and closely monitor any low temperature drying to ensure against further deterioration of soybean quality. They say the alternative is leaving them in the field and watching the pods shatter.

Combine adjustments can reduce many problems in harvesting immature corn that has a low test weight with kernels prone to breakage. Many of those are provided by ag engineer Helmut Spieser of the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture. Read those here.
1) Reduce cylinder speed and open concaves.
2) Leave fines in the field, rather than in the bin where they enable mold growth
3) Not much field drying occurs at this time of the year with cooler temperatures.

If frost killed soybeans before maturity, they may still have a green color from the chlorophyll that did not degrade with maturity says MO’s Bill Wiebold. And he says some of it will remain even through long term storage, coloring the oil when the soybeans are processed. He says frost damaged beans will store, but will have a higher moisture content and should be aerated. Over time they will shrink and become more oblong, and that should be considered when adjusting a combine to harvest immature soybeans.

The saga of soybean aphids has a new chapter. Densities were impressive when they left soybean fields to find buckthorn, leading entomologists to expect significant egg- laying and a large 2010 population. But a survey in MI and IN found dead aphids, apparently the victims of a fungal disease. The aphid specialists believe that if that is the same in other parts of the Midwest, there may not be large numbers of aphids next spring.

Wet weather may bolster winter annual weeds, but MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley says your inability to apply a fall herbicide will not be that important. He says, “Our research indicates that applications of residual herbicides made in the early spring can provide similar levels of winter annual weed control as applications of these same herbicides in the fall. In addition, our data indicate that early spring applications of residual herbicides provide better control of emerging summer annual weed seedlings than fall herbicide applications.” He adds that many winter annuals germinate twice.

Unharvested seed may soon prepare itself for planting due to the wet weather, if it is warm enough. MO specialist Bill Wiebold says it only takes temperatures over 50º for corn to sprout in the husk, damaging its quality. “During germination, seeds release enzymes that break down carbohydrates, proteins and fats. This breakdown releases free sugars, amino acids, and fatty acids. These simple compounds spoil easily in storage.” Read more.

October was the second wettest and fifth coolest in Missouri, says state climatologist Pat Guinan. Looking ahead, he says, “The latest winter outlook for Missouri calls for above normal temperatures for the northwestern half of the state and equal chances for above, below and near normal temperatures for the rest of Missouri. Below normal precipitation is anticipated across far southeastern sections with equal chances of above, below and near normal precipitation for the rest of the state.”

With wet weather on both ends of the growing season, did corn rootworm create havoc? The preliminary results from corn root ratings collected by IL entomologists indicated that about all of the efforts to control rootworm were successful when compared against the untreated test plots. Read more.

What were some of the lessons learned about controlling corn rootworms?
1) Low densities could be the result of saturated soils or more acres planted with Bt corn.
2) Wet weather did not seem to reduce the effectiveness of soil insecticides.
3) Bt hybrids generally performed well, but not always better than soil insecticides.
4) Bt hybrids combined with soil insecticides resulted in very low root damage.
5) Data is still being tallied on which options provided the best economic sense.
6) Planting Bt hybrids in 2010 is a field by field decision, based on 2009 scouting.

Your priority on harvesting may sacrifice soil compaction, and that will be a long term problem says MO specialist Kent Shannon. He says shallow compaction of 12 inches or less can be corrected with tillage, but heavy loads on combines, trucks, or grain carts will compact soil to depths unreachable by tillage, and will remain wet late into next spring. Shannon says tire inflation pressure is one solution, and with selecting the proper tire, a 200 HP tractor may cause no more surface compaction than a 50 HP tractor.

Just because you had a good crop this year does not mean you can save money by avoiding P & K application before the 2010 crop according to OH fertility specialist Robert Mullen. He said many producers skipped P & K when P cost $1,200 per ton and K was over $1,000. Mullen says P has dropped to under $400 per ton and K is about $500, but both will be needed in 2010, especially if they were skipped earlier this year. He says if input costs are still a budget problem for you, look at the results of a soil test.

Fall or spring, your P & K application will produce the same yield. That is the opinion of MO soil fertility specialist Peter Scharf who also warns that if you did not get a P & K application prior to the 2009 crop, there is a potential for yield loss in your 2010 crop. But he says in the case of wheat, fall is the time when P nutrition makes the difference. Read more.

Consumer demand for pork is strong, but just how strong is an enigma to MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They quote USDA as saying there has been a 4% increase in demand for Jan-Sept compared to last year. Grimes and Plain doubt that degree of strength, but say consumer demand is as strong or stronger than 2008. They also challenge USDA’s way of measuring demand. They argue that credit should be given to the tonnage sold at lower prices, not just tonnage sold at regular prices.

Over 208,000 head have been removed from the US dairy herd so far this year, but OH dairy specialist Cameron Thraen says another 200,000 needs to be removed, so the national herd can drop under 9 million head. He says, “That will put farmers in a more stable position of balancing the domestic use market with only a small international component." He says the current $12.20 cwt price should rise to $15.00 in 2010.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:22 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

October 30, 2009

Cornbelt Update

At the outset of the week, 43 million acres of soybeans remained in the field and 63.5 million acres of corn were still standing. KS State marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says that is causing the market to talk about yield losses and quality problems. But he says there is no way to judge the impact until enough is harvested to give a good picture.

Despite the delayed harvest and its related problems, Woolverton says prices fell as farmers sold to capture the previously high prices, overseas buyers pulled back because of high prices, and “the anemic dollar gained in value.” But he says the market really turned down because of the longterm weather forecast for better harvest weather ahead. Woolverton says the dollar has been on a downward trajectory, and when that happens oil prices move back toward the $80 range and grain and oilseed prices follow the oil lead.

Woolverton says crop analysts have lowered private yield projections for corn and beans. He says if the national average corn yield is 160 bu., ending stocks will be 10% of usage, but he says if ending stocks drop below 10% of use, the supply tightens and prices rise. Read more.

Think about these issues, which Woolverton discusses in his newsletter:
1) 10-12 days of good weather will be needed for crops and fields to dry out, then soybean harvest will move faster than corn, which will slow from a drying bottleneck.
2) Market analysts say harvest lows are in when at least half the crop is harvested, which will be soon for soybeans but will take another week and a half for corn.

Don’t wait for “Indian summer,” says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, if your standing corn is too wet to harvest. He says stalk health and grain quality continue to deteriorate due to the processes of weathering and disease. Nielsen says grain moisture typically decreases not much more than ¼ to ½ a percentage point per day at normal temperatures.

Nielsen cites the average daily temperature in IN as 53º for October, but that drops to 42º for November. He says that explains why the rate of grain moisture loss in the field drops quickly in October and “flat lines” through November. He says if you factor in the cooler than normal October temperatures this year it is no surprise why grain moisture has not changed very significantly in recent weeks. He says don’t expect much more. Read more.

You may have moldy corn, but is it a real problem? OH State specialists say before abandoning a cornfield, make several determinations. They say ear mold may not be widespread within a field, and it may not be the variety that causes mycotoxins. Read: more about ear rots.
1) Walk you fields, and examine multiple ears for signs of ear rot.
2) If you have an ear rot, determine its variety and whether it produces mycotoxins.
3) If the mold is a hazard, determine how widespread it in throughout the field.
4) Examine 50 to 100 ears at multiple locations spread out throughout the field.
5) In the case of aflatoxin, a black light test should be checked if it fluoresces.
6) A positive black light test does not prove the toxins are present with the aflatoxin.

Moldy corn is being reported in MN, but plant pathologist Dean Malvick says identify it before taking action. He says most of the problem is superficial growth on kernels, and it may stop growing once the corn is harvested and dried. He says the more severe molds inside the kernel may produce mycotoxins and that restricts the potential use of the corn. Read more.

Gibberella ear rot has reached levels not seen in IN for decades, say Purdue plant pathologists. And the presence of gibberella has lead to reports of high levels of the mycotoxin DON, or vomitoxin. That poses a concern if the grain becomes livestock feed. Gibberella also produces zearalenone which can lead to livestock infertility.

The Purdue specialists say corn growers should scout remaining fields of corn and take note of areas and hybrids with ear rot problems. If gibberella is present with its pinkish discoloration of kernels, contact your crop insurance agent before harvest for instructions on whether to harvest the field, or leave a strip of corn for adjusters to examine.

Test your corn before feeding it to livestock, or even putting it in livestock feeders, say Purdue livestock specialists, who are concerned about the presence of mold and toxins:
1) Pigs will reduce feed intake if DON levels are above 2 parts per million.
2) Pigs will have complete feed refusal if DON levels exceed 10 parts per million.
3) Poultry is not as sensitive as hogs to the toxins produced by gibberella molds.
4) DON or vomitoxin under 7.5 parts per mil. will suppress the immune system in poultry
5) Lower test weights from diplodia changes the germ and endosperm proportions in a kernel of corn, shifting amino acid and energy balances of the livestock ration.

Wet corn? Depending on moisture above 15%, drying time with natural air could take up to 27 days at 60ºF, 36 days at 50ºF, or 40 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 21%. Consult this chart.

Wet beans? Depending on moisture above 13%, drying time with natural air could take up to 29 days at 60ºF, 38 days at 50ºF, or 42 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 19%. Consult this chart.

Dry soybeans with caution, says Purdue grain quality specialist Matt Roberts, since high temperature drying of 160-180º can lead to excessive cracking of the seed coat. He says there will be less cracking and fewer splits if the humidity is above 40%. He says, “For example, if outside air is 60°F with a relative humidity of 80%, it should not be heated above 80°F because when heated to that temperature air relative humidity will be 40%.” Read more.

Medium temperature soybean drying can be accomplished if beans have high levels of moisture and the drying occurs in a continuous flow dryer or a drying bin. Roberts says if seed quality is not a concern, beans may be dried at 120-140º, but limit exposure to not more than a half hour depending on how high the original moisture level was. He says when heat is added to the bin, make it intermittent, to avoid extended exposure.

Low temperature soybean drying can be done with natural air drying, and Roberts says that will allow 2-3 points of moisture to be removed if ambient air temperatures are adequate and humidity is low. But he says this process may take several weeks. He says the process can be speeded up if one layer is dried before more beans are added to the bin, or if the bin is equipped with stirrers that thoroughly mix the beans during drying.

If your combine is creating ruts in wet soils, that is no surprise, say IA State specialists who estimate a loaded grain tank and a 12-row header put 18-20 tons of pressure on the front axle of a combine. But they say those ruts will interfere with your 2010 crop, particularly in getting proper seed depth, as well as crop rooting and development.

Ruts from heavy equipment on wet soil will not be erased with deep tillage, if the soil is still wet, since it will not properly shatter. They say it will take freezing and thawing action to loosen the soil. They recommend waiting until spring to make a light tillage pass, and then only work those areas of the field where ruts remain. If the 2010 growing season shows the impact of ruts, consider deep tillage after next year’s harvest.

New IRS regulations have lengthened the time for farmland estates to be settled. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says in cases where environmental questions are unresolved, estates must remain open and assets cannot be distributed. He says those are new challenges for executors.

Hog prices are higher, but MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain wonder why. They report, “Slaughter in recent weeks has run 5-7% above mid-Aug. Therefore, these higher prices are not supply driven. The best guess is there is some improvement in exports since August and the increased spending on pork for October Pork month. Whatever the reason, it is appreciated.” But they warn, “The $70-plus summer 2010 futures for lean hogs may be influencing producers to slow or stop the decline in the breeding herd. The latest data show both sow and gilt slaughter below a year earlier.”

Improve your pasture productivity by increasing the livestock species that are grazing, says IL animal systems specialist Dean Oswald. Horses, cattle, goats, and sheep all graze at different heights and eat different plants. Therefore, rotating them all in the same pasture will allow better management of your forage, including weed control. Read more.

Managed grazing, says Oswald, allows several positive impacts for your forage:
1) Balance pressure on vegetation, protect natural resources, and reduce erosion.
2) Improve feed quality and quantity through proper forage management techniques.
3) Produce more pounds of livestock per acre, and diversify livestock sales.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:28 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

October 23, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Mark mid-November on your calendar. That is when MI State grain marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the size of the 2009 crop may be known. He says the October USDA report was based on Oct. 1 conditions, but a lot of crop damage happened after then. “The November 1 USDA crop production survey, to be released November 10 will give us a good update, but I suspect a lot of this corn will have to be harvested before we really know the condition.” Read more.

Hilker believes the crop estimate will decline when released in November, “For those that have to deliver at harvest, consider taking some of these prices even before delivery, and don't plan on paying commercial storage, the market is still saying it will not pay. Consider a basis contract if you want to stay in the market. For those with on-farm storage, the market is saying it will pay for using it. Your decision is: do you just wait to price, or lock in some of it now, i.e., hedge or H-T-A. You could do some of both, especially if corn prices have stayed the same or continued to go up after October 20.

The soybean crop estimate will also drop, thinks Hilker, because of crop damage. But he says the market will still not pay you to store beans, “While a few may be able to take advantage of some basis tightening right after harvest, everybody ought to be considering basis contracts, where you delivery the beans and get 80% of the price to start, or sell cash and buy futures if you want to stay in the market for the longer haul.”

Hilker’s bearishness on beans is due to South American production. He says Argentine production will be up 64% after the spring 2009 drought and Brazilian production up 9%; “And this is on top of US production expected to be up 9% this year. So play the market at your own risk, it may be that selling some $9.50 soybeans at harvest turns out to be pretty good. Or South American soybean production could bomb out.”

Wheat producers, says MI State’s Jim Hilker, have two problems if their 2009 crop remains stored and unpriced. He says, “The very low market price says the market doesn't want your wheat. And the spreads in the futures contract prices says the market does not want to pay commercial storage. The market says it will pay on-farm stored wheat about the net return of corn through March. But if you have on-farm storage space, greater than your need for corn, consider keeping your on-farm stored wheat.”

Wet harvests are costly. Costs may reach $100 per acre for drying and shrink says IL Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey due to high moisture levels in corn. He is concerned that your 2009 farm budget did not include that expense. Read his newsletter.

Your 190 bu. yield coming out of the field at 25% moisture may be 216 bu. in the truck but you are only selling 186 bu. at 15% moisture when 1.4% shrink is applied. The shrink loss of $15, plus $76 drying cost per acre mean a $91 revenue loss per acre.

Waiting for Mother Nature to dry your corn, will save money, but many farmers are reporting their corn is drying too slowly or not at all when left in the field. Schnitkey says field drying from 32% moisture down to 31% will save $13 per acre in drying costs. But he says consider the potential for field losses if corn remains standing.

Call several elevators and ask about their policies and calculations for drying and shrink. Schnitkey says you may find several variations, some of which may be more appealing than your nearby elevator, particularly if the corn is to be sold or stored. And he says some elevators base drying charges on wet bushels and others on dry bushels.

Immature corn will have trouble drying down, says ND ag engineer Ken Hellevang, and it will have low test weights and potential ear molds. He says the only way to stop those is either drying or ensiling. Hellvang has a newsletter with several grain drying tips.

Drying #1. Standing corn will only dry 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points per day, even with a warm temperature and a dry breeze, but that rate quickly declines with the calendar. Field drying is more economical until mid to late October and mechanical high temperature drying is more economical after that point says Hellevang.

Drying #2. Corn above 21 percent moisture should not be dried using natural air and low-temperature drying to minimize corn spoilage during drying. Hellevang recommends an airflow rate of 1.25 cubic feet per minute per bushel (cfm/bu) to reduce drying time. Adding heat does not permit drying wetter corn and only slightly increases drying speed.

Drying #3. Shelled corn can be stored in a grain bin at moisture contents up to about 25 percent if it is kept below 30 degrees using aeration. Corn kernels above about 25 percent moisture may freeze into a clump that causes unloading problems.

Drying #4. Use the maximum allowable drying temperature in a high-temperature dryer to increase dryer capacity and energy efficiency. Be aware that high drying temperatures result in a lower final test weight and increased breakage susceptibility in the corn.

Drying #5. Dryeration will increase the dryer capacity about 50 percent to 75 percent, reduce energy used by about 25 percent and remove about 2 to 2.5 points of moisture (0.25 percent for each 10 degrees the corn is cooled). Hellevang says with dryeration, hot corn from the dryer is placed in a dryeration bin with a perforated floor, allowed to steep for four to six hours without airflow, cooled and then moved to a storage bin.

Drying #6. Using the maximum drying temperature that will not damage the corn also can reduce energy consumption. The amount of energy required to remove a pound of water is about 20 percent less using a drying air temperature of 200 F than 150 F.

Drying #7. The estimated quantity of propane needed to dry is 0.02 gallon per bushel per point of moisture removed. Propane will cost about $53 to remove 10 percentage points of moisture from 120 bushels of corn using $2 propane.

1974 may have been the last time that diplodia, giberella, and other corn fungal rots were seen to this extent, says Purdue ag engineer Richard Stroshine. He says farmers are going to have to take extra precaution in storing and drying down grain this year. He says if your corn is moldy, remove as much of the broken kernels and fines as possible before storage, then dry it to 14% moisture and don’t expect it to store as well as usual.

You have a field of moldy corn. Do you blend it with good corn when putting it in the bin? Not now, says Stroshine, “Farmers may want to mix their corn with high levels of mold with their good corn, but my recommendation would be to segregate the good corn from the bad. It should be handled separately. Then if need be, it can be blended later."

Within fields, significant variation in grain moisture may exist among plants that died prematurely and those that matured more normally, say OH State agronomists. “In such fields, growers should be prepared for stalk lodging problems (associated with drought stress) that may slow harvest and contribute to yield losses. The loss of one "normal" sized ear per 100 feet of row translates into a loss of more than one bushel/acre.”

What is your soybean component content? IA State soybean agronomist Palle Pedersen says the September heat pushed soybeans to maturity, without completing pod fill. As a result protein values are a low 31-34%, and oil content is above average at 19+%. High protein meals will be 45-47%, but essential amino acids will not decline as much as protein, so the beanmeal will be potentially good for swine and poultry nutrition.

Soybeans that were frost damaged will have less extractable oil, and it will carry a green color, which must be removed with a high cost bleaching process. But for farmers green soybeans will carry pod pieces with them which are hard to separate. In the bin green or immature soybeans will spoil faster and the oil becomes rancid and value drops.

The late and immature beans will likely be wet, says IA State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh. He says, “Soybeans dry more easily than corn so air alone, or heat no more than 120F will be adequate. Monitor drying frequently to prevent overdrying. And he adds, wet soybeans should not be held in bunkers, piles, flat storages, sheds or other structures where airflow is not well distributed. Read his and Pedersen’s newsletter.

If you are frustrated over frost-damaged beans, Hurburgh says, “The best strategy is to aerate and store for 40-60 days before selling. The greenness may subside enough to be below the color threshold of the Grades. In cases of dispute over grading, submit the sample to a USDA licensed grading agency for resolution. Protein levels are likely to be below average; oil levels above average in Iowa soybeans.”

Your haste to harvest may have caused you to operate in fields with wet soils, and that may result in compaction with yield loss in future years. You may view that as the lesser of the evils, but there are some measures you can take to minimize compaction damage.
1) Restrict heavy equipment or truck traffic in fields to specific tracks or lanes.
2) Drive grain carts in prior combine tracks and avoid diagonal field crossings.
3) Keep trucks on the road, if possible, but if not, restrict them to the end rows.
4) Compaction is only reversed by wetting and drying, freezing and thawing over time.

If liming is on your to-do list, ensure that you are applying the correct amount. Two soils, both with a 5.5 pH, may need two different amounts of lime says IL agronomist Matt Montgomery. He says it all depends on whether the hydrogen ions are floating or attached to soil particles, and if floating, the soil may need twice as much lime. Consult with a fertility supplier or Extension specialist and ask about the Cation Exchange.

It’s pretty, but you probably would rather enjoy your spring without a healthy crop of butterweed in your fields. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says it will soon be emerging in your fields, particularly no-till fields, and his herbicide performance chart says fall applications do better.

Adverse harvest weather has been adverse to cow-calf producers says UT State livestock economist Dillon Feuz, “The result has been the corn price has increased about $0.50 per bu. That certainly has pressured feeder cattle prices lower. The other on-going and worsening situation is there continues to be no money in feeding cattle. While it appeared back in the spring that feedlots were poised to finally start making a little money feeding cattle, that hope disappeared through the summer and early fall.”

Feuz has a stern warning to cow-calf producers about their relationship with feedlots, some of which have become bankrupt. He says, “Certainly, those who remain in business have limited ability to bid up feeder cattle prices. While cow-calf producers never want to sell their calves too cheap to feedlots, they may actually want to this year, or there may be no feedlots left to buy their calves next year.”

What is the most economical feed for your livestock? (And don’t forget to factor in the moisture content of the corn or distillers’ grain). At that point it just got complicated, so you need the “Cost of Feedstuffs Calculator.” Find and download the calculator. The feedstuffs library includes 120 different feedstuffs comprising: 22 company co-products; 25 by-products; 5 new generation co-products; 27 forages; 11 grains; 9 crop residues; 12 silages; and 9 supplements. And you can include your own farm-produced feeds.

USDA’s price estimates of a $3.30 average price for 2009 corn and $275 per ton for soybean meal will help livestock producers say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. But they say the resulting $3-4 per cwt reduction in production cost is not enough to erase the red ink of the past year. They say the breeding herd needs to be cut substantially more than what the September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report projected.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:55 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

October 16, 2009

Cornbelt Update

USDA’s corn yield forecast is on track with growing season weather and crop condition ratings says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good. But he says the USDA forecast bean yield is a bit below the crop condition ratings and his estimates based on growing season weather. He says typically, yield forecasts increase in Nov., but 2009 is not a typical year. Read more.

2009 is not typical, says Good, because the growing season for late maturing crops was ended early by freezing temperature. He says that may have reduced yield, along with widespread incidents of disease in both corn and beans, causing quality issues. Good believes that USDA’s November crop report may very well show a decline in yields.

Darrel Good says corn prices have climbed 65¢ and beans have risen over $1.00 per bushel while USDA has continued to push upward its crop estimates. That is because of strong demand. He says the ethanol industry has recovered substantially, and there are higher estimates for corn being used for livestock feed than in earlier estimates.

Darrel Good says soybean prices have been held up by the strength of exports, which are now at a predicted record of 1.305 bil. bu. for the new marketing year. Currently, exports and unshipped commitments are at 758 mil. bu., up 350 mil. bu. from last year.

If you are concerned about pricing, Good says the crop size and quality concerns will keep corn and bean prices strong. He suggests that higher prices should lead producers toward pricing strategies that have less storage and more harvest time pricing.

Looking back at the USDA World Supply-Demand Report, KS marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says the estimate for Chinese corn production was cut by 200 mil. bu., and global corn stocks were also lowered. He concludes that lower global stocks could put upward pressure on US corn prices, and China may be in the market for corn.

Woolverton found nothing to be bullish about in the wheat market. He says US stocks are at a 9 year high after raising production and lowering use. Exports will be down because of competition from Russia, Canada, and Australia. He says despite global production being down 2% this year, global stocks will be up 12% this year. He is hoping wheat prices will follow corn and bean prices higher during the year.

If you are putting price targets on your grain, Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker provides some price probabilities, based on futures as of October 14:
1) Dec corn: 80% probability between $4.52 & $3.19, with the midpoint at $3.79.
2) Mar corn: 80% probability between $5.10 & $2.93, with the midpoint at $3.86.
3) Jul corn: 80% probability between $5.65 & $2.77, with the midpoint at $3.95.
4) Jan beans: 80% probability between $11.84 & $8.26, with the midpoint at $9.88.
5) Mar beans: 80% probability between $12.50 & $7.72, with the midpoint at $9.82.
6) Jul beans: 80% probability between $13.33 & $6.92, with the midpoint at $9.59.
7) Dec wheat: 80% probability between $6.03 & $4.30, with the midpoint at $5.09.
8) Mar wheat: 80% probability between $6.81 & $3.99, with the midpoint at $5.21.
9) Jul wheat: 80% probability between $7.66 & $3.74, with the midpoint at $5.35.

Farm program sign-up may be last on your priority list, but it has begun for the 2010 crop, and farmers who are eligible for Direct Payments may request advanced payments. Those payments would equal 22% of the applicable payment and will be made on Dec. 1. The deadline for sign-up for Direct, Counter-cyclical payments and ACRE is June 1.

“Striking” is the description used by IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger to describe the departure of 2009 growing degree days from normal. He says generally, the GDD predictions of maturity have held up fairly well this year, meaning that it took all of September in many fields for the crop to reach maturity. Late planting did not help. Read his newsletter. Nafziger also says frost started the dry-down process earlier and may reduce drying costs.

What is your kernel size? Emerson Nafziger says kernel size this year seems to be unusually large, even in later planted fields, which he terms “a positive development.” He says where kernels were still immature when frost killed the plant, some of the grain size will be lost, but since kernels were larger than usual, the yield will still be good.

What will stalk quality be? Nafziger does not anticipate much of a problem with stalk quality in connection with an early freeze. He says many stalks strengthened over the past month by increasing the presence of lignin; therefore stalk sugar content is not as important this fall for stalk strength. He says very immature corn could have problems.

When kernels get to the dryer Nafziger says high temperature drying may caramelize some of the sugars at the tip of the kernel. That may darken and may change the shape of the kernel. Those kernels may also have a lower test weight, and the combination of weight and discoloration may result in pricing discounts at the elevator. He says there is no difference in feed quality, however there is less starch needed by ethanol refiners.

Natural drying may stop at 17% to 18% moisture at this time, says IA agronomist Roger Elmore, and without many chances for field drying, he says attention needs to be given to stalk health. That means producers may have to harvest wetter corn first if it is lodging.

IA State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh says expect drying cost to be 5¢ per point of moisture removed, and 23% moisture corn will cost 40¢ per bushel, plus the loss from shrink. He says that means you may have an incentive to hold corn at higher moisture, and await better drying conditions in the spring, or blending opportunities, or sale of the grain to buyers of high moisture grain, but that could create high risks.

Shrink is an issue for high moisture grain, which is 1.17% per point for corn and 1.15% for beans. Hurburgh says any additional deduction in the market shrink calculation is an allowance for material handling losses. That would be a 0.22% handling loss if the elevator calculates shrink at 1.4% per point of moisture. He says an elevator experiences 1% overall handling loss and a good farm system would have about 0.5% loss. But both of those exclude any weight loss from spoilage if the grain goes out of condition.

Tests weights under 54 lbs. should be dried to under 15% moisture if they are going to be stored for any length of time. And breakage of kernels is a potential problem. Hurburgh says low test weight corn, which has been dried, should not be stored into warm weather next year. As moisture is removed, corn will gain test weight, and there will be more gain with low temperature drying compared to temperatures over 150ºF.

Soybean harvest, storage, and handling tips are handy given current weather conditions:
1) Grain storage tips, and formulas for crop drying storage and handling.
2) Soybean drying, handling, and storage.
3) “Harvest soybeans as early as possible.”

MN and WI farmers may have suffered significantly when the freezing temperatures halted the growth and maturity of substantial corn and soybean acres. If frost damaged less mature crops, MN agronomists say different management would be required, and they have created a website for that.

Grain drying fans are humming throughout the country. If yours is not, your grain shelf life may be shortened, according to NE ag engineer Tom Dorn’s rules of thumb:
1) When corn over 17% moisture is held at a constant temperature, the shelf life is cut in half for every 2% increase in moisture content.
2) When corn over 17% moisture is held at a constant temperature, the shelf life is cut in half for every 10ºF rise in temperature.
3) Grain stored without aeration will heat from microbial respiration and will have a shelf life about one-third as long because heat increases that activity, causing more heat.

Do a favor for yourself and your neighbors. Clean the buckthorn out of fencerows, waste areas, and along creek banks. It’s not that you don’t already have a lot to do, but the less buckthorn, the less of a problem with soybean aphids next year. Buckthorn will not resprout from underground roots, but stumps that are cut off will regrow. Pictures and detailed instructions.

If you don’t believe that eradicating some buckthorn bushes will help, think again. Those swarms of soybean aphids in September were all traveling to their winter quarters on buckthorn growing on your property and that of your neighbors. Researchers have found buckthorn leaves totally covered with soybean aphids, meaning management issues for 2010. Unbelievable pictures.

There is an 11 year trend in the population of European corn borer says IL entomologist Mike Gray, and the trend is downward, due to the introduction of Bt hybrid corn. He says the widespread use of Bt corn has significantly suppressed corn borer populations. Gray says that trend may lead to a decision that his annual survey can be discontinued.

The widespread use of Bt corn has also lead to questions about the populations of corn root worms says Mike Gray. He says the wet 2009 spring suppressed some, but the use of Bt corn and increased use of soil insecticides may show a downward rootworm trend.

I have diplodia in my corn. Your test weight may be light. If the cob is rotted, it may spread through the grain. Pieces of cob may result in discounts for foreign material. The elevator may also levy a dockage for the presence of kernels damaged by diplodia.

I don’t want diplodia next year. Choose hybrids with better resistance. Avoid planting corn into fields in 2010 that had high rates of diplodia in 2009. Bury corn residue as much as possible in fields with heavy infestation. Foliar fungicides have little effect.

Your fall to-do list may include control of winter annual weeds, and if you need some quick guidelines to save time, IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says consider these:
1) the warmer the winter weather, the more weed growth, compared to northern Cornbelt.
2) If soil residual activity is needed, apply early, if not, wait for weeds to begin growing.
3) Ensure that you know what weeds are growing and use effective herbicides for them.
4) Even with a soil residual herbicide applied now, the field may not be clean next spring.
5) When winter annuals are eliminated, some summer annuals emerge sooner than usual.
6) Do not expect to prevent waterhemp next spring by using a fall applied herbicide.
7) Fall applications allow higher rates which may control glyphosate tolerant weeds.

Kill a chickweed, kill a cutworm. That’s the essence of recommendations of OH entomologists, who say a weed free seedbed in the spring will reduce the locations for moths to lay cutworm eggs, particularly on chickweed. They are urging a fall application of herbicides to eradicate weeds and the potential for early spring homes for cutworms.

Your combine is your friend, but sometimes friends spread things we don’t appreciate and combines will spread weed seeds and fungal molds, says IL plant pathologist Vince Davis. He says, “if at all possible,” combine weedy patches last to quarantine seeds, and the same with moldy areas of soybean fields. If it is not possible, ensure the combine is as clean as possible before moving onto fields that have not been impacted by problems.

Conditions are ripe for Phomopsis seed rot in soybeans, particularly because of harvest delays from wet weather. It is a fungal disease resulting in chalky white, shriveled, shrunken soybeans. OH plant pathologist Anne Dorrance says seed may be infected and not show symptoms, but will die when put through germination tests now. However some of the fungi will die during storage and germination rates may be higher later. She says seed with levels of infection less than 20-25% can be managed with Fludioxonil.

Pork is popular, believe MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say, “The demand for pork at the consumer level was up 3.9% for January-August. For this period consumer demand for beef was down 2%, broiler down 3.4% and turkey was up 5.6% compared to the same period in 2008.” Feeder pig prices are spiraling upward.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:25 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink

October 9, 2009

Cornbelt Update--UPDATED WITH OCTOBER CROP REPORT

USDA pushed up its forecast for 2009 corn production to 13.018 bil. bu., slightly above the 12.955 bil. forecast in Sept. and within the range expected by the market, but well above the 12.986 bil. bu. average of trade guesses. The October Crop report also adjusted acreage expectations to 79.294 mil. acres, down slightly from Sept. The corn crop will be 8% higher than 2008, helped by a more than 10 bushel per acre jump in the national average yield. USDA kept yield forecast steady or raised them across the Cornbelt because of favorable Sept. weather.

USDA also pushed up its forecast for 2009 soybean production to 3.250 bil. bu., up slightly from the 3.245 bil. forecast in September. The projection was within the range the market was expecting. USDA also added 0.1 bu. to the average yield and reset it to 42.4 bu. per acre and cut the expected harvested area slightly from the September estimate.

USDA's Supply and Demand Report for corn made some minor adjustments in use. Feed use was raised 50 mil. bu. to 5.4 bil. Exports were lowered 50 mil. bu. to 2.150 bil. Ending stocks were raised to 1.672 bil. but the price range of $3.05 to $3.65 was retained.

USDA's Supply and Demand Report for beans retained crush estimates at 1.690 bil. bu., but raised export estimates by 25 mil. bu. to 1.305 bil. The carryout was raised to 230 mil. bu., and the season average price range was dropped ten cents to $8 to $10 per bu.

Ahead of the Monday freeze, crop forecasters said the corn is immature and vulnerable for 60% of ND, 50% of WI, 40% of MI, 40% of MN, 35% of IL, 30% of IN, 30% of OH, 20% of SD, 20% of NE, 10% of IA, and 10% of MO. Another forecaster with similar estimates computed the damage would affect more than 232 mil. bu. of immature corn.

The combination of freezing temperature halting corn maturity and the resulting light test weights leads MI St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker to doubt the accuracy of either the Oct. or Nov. USDA crop reports. He says, “This is not a criticism of USDA, but rather the fact of a very late maturing corn crop.” He’s waiting for the final report in Jan.

Hilker says the market is willing to pay for on-farm corn storage with the monthly spread of 4¢+ per month. However that is not enough to cover commercial storage plus lost interest. His advice is, “Those who need off-farm storage and are pretty sure the market is going up should consider basis contracts, sell cash-buy futures, sell cash-buy call options, a minimum price contract, or sell cash and an appropriate call spread.”

Hilker’s probability for Dec corn: “There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $4.03 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $2.89. This indicates an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices. There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $3.41.”

Hilker’s probability for Nov beans: “There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $10.20 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $8.38. This indicates an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices. There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $9.24.”

US corn exports will increase, thanks to smaller corn crops in Canada, South Africa, and China, which are competitors says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good, pushing the US share of world corn trade to 65% from 60% last year. He says global demand will grow 9% because of smaller European and Mexican crops and more Chinese demand. Read his newsletter.

US soybean exports will remain steady with fewer purchases by Europe and China being offset by more purchases from Japan and Mexico. Good says that is happening at the same time Argentine and Brazilian exports are increasing. Production was down 31% in Argentina and 7% in Brazil last year, but planting will increase in both nations this year. Good says Argentina will raise 700 mil. more bu. and 185 mil. more in Brazil.

Soybean rust spread with a vengeance in the past several weeks, being found in every county in AL, all but 1 county in MS, nearly all of AR and LA, and spreading up the Mississippi River to southern MO and southern IL. It now has been found in 370 counties in 16 states as of Oct. 8. The most northern county is McDonough Co. in Illinois, near the Mississippi River at the latitude where the states of IA and MO meet.

Soybean rust reached the MO bootheel with the help of a weather system on Sept. 10. MO plant pathologist Allen Wrather says the recent infections were fresh, extensive, but would cause little damage because of the maturity of most soybeans, which were in stage R6. However, some July planted beans which were in stages R3 to R5 will be susceptible to damage and Wrather says farmers will need to make a decision on treatment.

Discolored soybeans, if you have them, are the result of many weather-related fungi that found this year to be perfect to work overtime. MO plant pathologist Laura Sweets identifies many types. Sweets says many of the pathogens causing discoloration will survive on seed beans, and heavily infected seed, if planted next year will produce diseased seedlings and poor stands.

Immature soybeans will not mature in the bin says MO crop specialist Bill Wiebold, “If death occurs late in the seed-filling, the green color is confined to the seed coat. If death occurs during early to mid fill, the green color remains throughout the interior of the seed." Green soybeans produce green soybean oil and processors will charge dockage because consumers do not want to cook or fry with vegetable oil with a green color.

If your soybeans did not mature before the freeze, Wiebold says split them with a knife and if only the coat is green, the soybeans should be classified as yellow beans and not docked. He says if less than 90% of the seed interior is yellow they will be graded as “soybeans of other color.” A load with 10% “other color” will be graded as standard and could receive substantial dockage, and a lesser quality will be graded “total damage.”

Kernels sprouting on the ear are being reported by KY agronomist Chad Lee, who says they are base kernels and are kept moist by the husk structure. And he adds, “Sprouting kernels are not a direct hazard to livestock. However, molds are sometimes associated with sprouting and some molds can produce mycotoxins. If corn is being used for livestock feed, have it checked for mycotoxins. Sprouting kernels will reduce test weight and yield, slightly.” He says it is just a symptom of the cool, wet fall.

Various molds and ear rots may be hiding in your fields, and may necessitate some fields being harvested before others while they are still standing, says IA plant pathologist Alison Robertson. Test at least 100 plants in a field looking for stalk firmness and if lower nodes are weak, which will threaten standability. Harvest weaker corn first.

Diplodia ear rot is a dense white mold between kernels, making them light weight and reducing nutritional value. Toxins are not produced. Diplodia usually spreads in the field but can be a problem in storage if the grain moisture exceeds 20%.

Giberella ear rot begins at the tip of the ear with a pink to red colored mold and can be found on ears damaged by hail. It will produce DON also known as vomitoxin.

Fusarium ear rot is indicated by a white, pink, or salmon colored mold anywhere on the ear. It is usually found where insects have damaged kernels or the ear has been damaged by hail and kernels turn brown. Fusarium produces a mycotoxin called fumonisin.

Giberella stalk rot causes a pink to reddish discoloration of the pith inside a corn stalk, but on the outside will be small, round, bluish-black bodies near the nodes of the stalk.

Anthracnose stalk rot will have black shiny lesions on the outside of the stalk and on the inside, the pith of affected corn plants will be discolored and shredded.

For some good news….corn will be able to break the 300 to 350 bu. barrier says Purdue agronomist Tony Vyn, as long as each plant has every opportunity to compete with other plants in the row, and inputs such as nitrogen and population are not limiting factors.

What corn hybrids are you planting next year? MN corn specialist Jeff Coulter says the steadily increasing yield is a result of picking hybrids that closely approximates the growing degree days in your area. He says pick them to mature 10 days prior to frost.
1) Plant multiple hybrids to spread risk and widen out the harvest interval.
2) Yield varies more within a relative maturity rating than between maturity groups.
3) Select hybrids that are top performers in multiple test sites and in different weather.
4) Select hybrids on standability, disease tolerance, and need of transgenic resistance.

Livestock producers grazing sudangrass or sorghum sundangrass should move animals away from those forages for several days following a frost that would produce prussic acid. Sudangrass 18+ inches or sorghum sudangrass that is 30+ in will recover in 3-4 days. Hold livestock away for 10 days to 2 weeks if the grass was shorter. New shoots on partially frosted plants can be toxic as well, and should be avoided for 2 weeks.

Alfalfa, clover, and other perennial forages do not produce toxins and can be grazed or baled and fed to livestock after a killing frost. If the forage is not needed, IA forage specialist Stephen Barnhart says it is best for the plants to be uncut and left for the winter. Alfalfa cut after a partial freeze will re-grow and use up energy needed for next spring.

What is your soil pH? If you don’t know, you need a soil test; and if it is too acidic because of your regular nitrogen applications (hint), you may need a good dose of lime. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison says there are many reasons to consider some limestone:
1) Lime lowers the soil concentration of aluminum and manganese, which can be toxic.
2) An increase in soil microbial activity is noted as soil acidity is decreased.
3) Liming enhances nitrogen fixation and may improve soil structure and tilth.

Sample for soybean SCN in the fall, but don’t look for corn nematodes. IA plant pathologist Greg Tylka says their numbers decrease in the latter part of the growing season, and if you find some, it is not possible to work backward and estimate how many you may have had. Needle and sting nematodes can be found in lower soil levels.

Soybean cyst nematodes are best found in the fall, and Tylka says look in your soybean fields if you detect yield loss from SCN. Sample soil at 6-8 inches down, with 15-20 samples taken and blended for a composite sample. A testing lab needs 1 cup of soil.

Late harvest means late wheat planting for many farmers and OH agronomists say there may be inadequate tiller development before winter dormancy. If planting late, boost the seeding rate to 1.6 to 2.0 million per acre, and recalibrate your drill based on seeds per pound. Plants may be smaller, with shallower roots, and susceptible to heaving. That means plant no-till with a 1.0 to 1.5 inch planting depth to reduce heaving by 95%.

It is a record-setter. Slaughter steer carcass weights for the 5-state marketing area topped 900# for a weekly average. But livestock economist Dillon Feuz at Utah St. questions any pride. Read his analysis.
1) In 2001, the average steer carcass weight for the same area was only 803#.
2) Prior to 1980 the same steer at the same markets averaged less than 700#.
3) To get consumers to eat more beef, the price must be lowered.
4) Each producer is doing what is best for him: adding more weight.
5) More total weight means a lower general market level price.

Did you always intend, but never got around, to learn the differences among various financial reports that could identify success or potential problems with your farming operation? If so, MN farm finance specialist James Kurtz offers a series of fact sheets on such reports as Balance Sheets, Income Statement, Statement of Owner Equity, Statement of Cash flows, and a fact sheet on various financial ratios. Find the fact sheets here.

Did you always intend, but never got around, to planning out your estate and transferring your tangible assets? If so, several MN farm finance specialists have created a series of fact sheets on what to think about, what to do, and how to go about the process of estate planning. To save time and money before going to an attorney, find fact sheets here.

Did you always intend, but never got around, to developing a process to transfer your farming operation to the next generation. If so, several MN farm finance specialists have developed a roadmap for Cornbelt farmers to consider and discuss among family members about ways to financially benefit and protect all parties in that process. Find the fact sheets here.

Are you spending more or less than Brazilian farmers on crop protectants for soybeans? The Oct. 5 newsletter of CropSpotters asked several Brazilian farmers about their soybean chemical costs. Don’t worry about the need to equate reals and dollars or hectares and acres. Their answers are already in terms of “bushels per acre” and their costs range in value from 2.7 to 6.9 bushels of soybeans per acre.

Stu Ellis

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October 2, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Both the US corn and soybean markets are impacted by South American crop production, and IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says their size will influence prices in the US. Currently, corn acres in both Brazil and Argentina are expected to decline and soybean acreage in both countries is expected to increase. Read his analysis.

Despite fewer corn acres, total production is expected to increase because of better yields following droughty conditions in the 2008-09 growing season. The total crop is expected to be 2.6 bil. bu., compared to 2.46 bil. bu. last season. However, with more bean acres, production should reach 4.15 bil. bu., up 880 mil. bu. from the 2008-09 crop. 2010 South American crops are expected to benefit from an El Nino.

Good says those crops will compete with US corn and beans in the export market, but currently, USDA anticipates record US soybean exports of 1.28 bil. bu., and for US corn exports to reach 2.2 bil. in 2010. The latest USDA estimate of global grain exports says Brazil and Argentina will export 100 mil. bu. more corn and bean exports will be steady.

China is the soybean story according to marketing specialist Chad Hart at IA. He says most soybean importers have faded away, but not China, “At this point last year, China had purchased nearly 190 mil. bu. of soybeans from the US. This year the Chinese have purchased over 420 mil. bu. and we are only a few weeks into the marketing year.”

The latest USDA stocks report indicated year to year shifts in stored grain, says Hart. He notes, “On-farm storage of corn is up 22% from last year, while on-farm storage of soybeans is down 25%. Given the growth in on-farm stocks and the large corn and soybean crops being harvested, storage could be a major issue this year.” Read more.

Hart also says the moisture and quality issues will impact storage and marketing decisions. “As like last year, these crops will likely come out of the fields with more moisture than usual. Also, with the hail storms in north central and northeast Iowa this summer, we could see mold be more of a problem this year.” And Hart says farmers who cannot handle high moisture grain or quality issues will be selling, softening the basis.

Rethink grain price ranges says Hart at IA State, because USDA’s range of $3.05 to $3.65 for corn and $8.10 to $10.10 for soybeans takes into account grain that was forward contracted at higher prices, which raises the average. Hart says farmers need to look at the average futures prices, which currently forecast $3.20 for corn and $8.76 for beans.

Many marketing specialists have suggested storing corn to capture the carry and basis improvement and selling beans because of the lack of carry. MN marketing specialist Ed Usset agrees, but for farmers wanting more control of soybeans, he says re-ownership with a July call option has paid out profits in 7 of the past 8 years, but “an at-the-money July 2010 call will cost more than 80¢ per bu., and that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Read his rationale.

Cold air is pouring into the Cornbelt says IA meteorologist Elwynn Taylor, so expect development of patchy frost. He says the location depends on where there are clouds and wind, since clear skies will foster frost development. Taylor says recent fall rains have been welcome because the subsoil has been depleted of moisture and recharge is needed.

Heat units are needed for corn maturity, and without those, the corn plant will not go through the normal maturing process and it will dry up and die before it matures, says IA corn specialist Roger Elmore. He says some fields have not matured, but have dried down before the black layer was formed in the kernel, indicating normal maturity.

Some corn has also been pressured into an early maturity by diseases, such as northern corn leaf blight and GLS, as well as some droughty spots around the Cornbelt, says Elmore. He says those factors will reduce kernel weight and reduce quality. Many fungi will cause corn kernels to become “fluffy” and their test weight will be less. Elmore expects NASS statisticians could reduce the 187 bu. yield potential for IA this month.

If your corn is just not drying down, Purdue corn specialist Bob Nielsen says the issue could be the result of temperature, humidity, sunshine or rain conditions, as well as whether the hybrid was set to mature in August or September. He says it is not unheard of for grain moisture to decline more than 1 point per day when days are warm, sunny, windy and dry. But he says there may be zero drydown on cool, cloudy, and rainy days.

Corn drydown is a also a function of the hybrid’s physiological characteristics, says Purdue’s Nielsen:
1) Faster drydown comes with kernels that have a thinner pericarp or outer wall.
2) Faster drydown comes with ears that have fewer husk leaves.
3) Faster drydown comes with ears that have thinner husk leaves.
4) Faster drydown comes with ears have husk leaves that senesce or die sooner.
5) Faster drydown comes with ears whose husk leaves do completely cover the ear tip.
6) Faster drydown comes with ears whose husk leaves are looser.
7) Faster drydown comes with ears which drop down more quickly.

Your crop insurance may cover corn damaged from ear rots and other quality issues. IA ag economist William Edwards says you may be indemnified against low test weight, grade discounts, odors and other factors that reduce its quality from #2 yellow corn at 15% moisture. Alert your insurance agent and review Edwards’ value calculations.

If you have corn damaged by hail, mold, or other factors, call your crop insurance agent to determine the process of leaving field samples before harvest. IA ag engineer Charles Hurburgh and plant pathologist Alison Robertson suggest several steps for you to follow:
1) Scout fields for corn damaged by molds and call agent about quality loss procedures.
2) Take a composite sample from the field, test for toxins, and avoid long term storage.
3) Take load samples, ask for official test weight, grade them daily for inventory purpose.
4) Corn less than 50# is a storage risk and should be marketed first, but cool and dry it.
5) Moldy corn should be stored at moisture levels of 1-2% points below sound corn.
6) Clean any corn known to have toxins, remove center cores of bins to remove fines.

Do you have stalk rot problems? Scouting will help with the determination, but the 2009 weather was conducive to fungi that attack stalk integrity say NE specialist Tamra Jackson. She says, “On average, stalk rot diseases reduce yield by about 5% each year, although losses can be as high as 10% to 20%, and on rare occasion 100%. She says if more than 10% of plants exhibit stalk rot symptoms harvest that field first. And she adds, “Under severe stalk rot conditions, harvest early and pay the drying cost.”

Late planted soybeans should be scouted for soybean aphids. Midwestern crop specialists are finding significant numbers of aphids on soybeans that have not yet reached the R6 stage, which is full seed. Late planted and double cropped soybeans that still have substantial green vegetation would be attractive to soybean aphid colonies. Before spraying, assess the predator population and potential yield benefits.

The large number of soybean aphids heading from fields to their wintering grounds on buckthorn is telling OH insect specialists to expect soybean aphid problems next year and the end to alternating cycle of years of the extent of problems. They say that soybean growers should keep alert for an aphid issue in 2010 because of the current phenomenon.

Weeds interfering with harvest may be candidates for pre-harvest herbicide application to affect their seed production. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says 2,4-D, Rage D-Tech, Glyphosate, and Gramoxone can be applied to nearly mature corn, with the proper interval prior to harvest, which is usually 7 days. Glyphosate, Gramoxone Inteon, Clarity, and Aim EW can be applied to soybeans with the labeled pre-harvest interval. Hager says pre-harvest herbicides may not do much to limit weed seed production.

Weed specialist Mark Loux at OH St. says another solution is to wait for a hard freeze and for the weeds to dessicate or become more brittle. He also suggests:
1) The greener the weed, the greater the likelihood of reducing seed viability.
2) Herbicides will be most effective when applied under warm sunny conditions.
3) Glyphosate can control perennials if they are in the appropriate growth stage.
4) Herbicides or a freeze will not force a loss of fruit on black nightshade.

Wheat being planted after corn or beans should have a good start in a weed free field says Purdue weed specialist Bill Johnson, who is concerned about weeds depleting moisture in a seed bed for wheat. He says there are only 2 broad spectrum herbicides labeled for planting wheat, glyphosate and gramoxone. He says if you have dandelions, or other perennials, use glyphosate, but both can be used for winter annuals. Johnson says 2,4-D is not labeled for fall use and can result in poor pollination and head fill. He also recommends suppression of henbit, purple deadnettle, chickweed, and dandelion.

USDA will update its small grains estimates for some northern states because harvest was delayed over a significant area of the northern Plains states. The last survey found unharvested acreage for durum wheat in ID, MN, MT, and ND. NASS will contact farmers who had unharvested acreage, and if changes are justified, the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary of yields and stocks will be updated in the Nov. 10 Crop Report.

Is $60 per acre a good price for selling corn stalks, or will you leave financial benefits in the field? NE specialists say 1 ton of crop residue is created from 40 bu. of corn, 30 bu. of soybeans, or 20 bu. of wheat. Typical crop residue has 17 lbs. of N, 4 lbs of P, and 50 lbs of K per ton. At current prices that is $36 per ton. With stover removal, there is a loss of 4.3 in. of moisture, worth $17 per acre. There is also a drop of 25 bu. in corn yield or a 10 bu. drop in wheat yield. That means the loss is more than the selling price.

Have you noticed an increase in Northern Corn Leaf Blight? OH corn production specialists report a steady increase since 2001 in its occurrence. They attribute it to an increase in acres planted to hybrids that are susceptible, but say its late appearance this year was probably due to favorable weather conditions late in the growing season.

If more corn is grown to meet various demands, Purdue specialists say any effort to move toward continuous corn will result in more nitrogen, fungicides, and phosphorous showing up in streams and lakes than with a typical corn and soybean rotation. Purdue ag engineers studied water sources near continuous corn and rotational fields.

Statistically, we are in the last month in which diesel fuel prices will be less than they were 12 months earlier. Currently, they are about 16% less than a year ago, but prices in Nov. will be above the levels recorded when the oil market collapsed. Dec. should bring diesel prices 24% above Dec. of 2008, and spring tillage time will have diesel fuel 50% to 60% above spring 2009 levels, says economist Kevin Dhuyvetter at KS State. For budgeting 2010 fuel prices, read more.

Pork profitability may be reached next summer when the IA State “crush margin” for hogs reaches the $50 mark. That would be based on hogs placed in feeding barns in February and marketed in July of 2010. Review the IA calculations.

The IA State pork profitability model expects prices to exceed variable costs in March of 2010 and total costs in May of 2010. Economists John Lawrence and Shane Ellis say the accumulated losses over the past 2 years have exceeded the 27 months of losses that ended in Jan. 2000. Since there are more hogs now than then, losses per farm are more.

The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report did not include some substantial cutbacks in the breeding herd. MO economist Glenn Grimes says in the past 4 weeks sow slaughter is up 1.9% and gilt slaughter is up substantially. He says the Sept. 25 Hogs and Pigs Report was based on Sept. 1 numbers, and the cutback trend has increased since then.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:24 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

September 25, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Frost premiums are bid in and out of the market daily says Mike Woolverton at KS State, since the last crop progress report showed 60% of the beans vulnerable and only 21% of the corn mature. And he says the greatest lags in development are in states most likely to experience the early freezing temperatures. The next potential frost date is about Oct. 8, and more acreage will be mature. However, he says even if a killing frost does not arrive until late Oct. some corn and soybeans will be damaged. Read his latest newsletter.

Markets have not really responded to the potential for damage, says Woolverton, because energy, currency, and other markets are dominating the commodities market. However, he says while the US will have an adequate supply of corn available to meet demand, there will not be a surplus, and the freeze cushion is not large.

Woolverton is watching the bean market because of short supplies from the old crop and large demand for the new crop. He says if old crop use is raised by USDA in Oct. that would lower ending stocks further. Any yield loss from frost hurting the new crop will cause stocks to tighten further, and he says there is no freeze cushion for beans.

The wheat market could be impacted by a freeze, but not in the US. Woolverton says weather in Argentina and Australia has been dry and planted acreage is down 40% in Argentina where “intense frost” is a threat. The same is true for Australian wheat which is threatened by a frost that could support global wheat prices if they happen.

How wide is your basis for soft red winter wheat? After trying to improve the convergence between futures and cash prices, the administrative efforts of the CBOT have not resolved the wide basis problems, at least for southern IL wheat growers, where spot bids range from $1.61 to $2.07 under the December futures contract. IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says this magnitude of basis has been common for a long time.

Darrel Good says the basis for hard red winter wheat is weak, but not to the extent of the SRW contracts. He says the small SRW crop and large carry would normally tell farmers to store, but there is a “fundamental disconnect between the value of SRW to end users and the value established by the futures market.” Read more of his weekly newsletter.

The SRW price issue may discourage producers from planting wheat this fall, as well as the lateness in getting corn and soybeans out of the field. Good says the CBOT continues to work on the problem by revising contract specifications, and wanting to avoid forced convergence, which would be cash settlement or forced load out of deliveries.

The wheat market is in a funk according to Alan May at SD State because, “carryover supplies of wheat are expected to be the largest since 2001 when wheat prices were struggling to exceed the $3.00 per bushel mark.” He says wheat production is down, but so is demand and with a 65 mil bu. drop in exports the surplus will grow by 70 mil. bu. Read more of his newsletter.

Alan May says, “Wheat supplies have already experienced a significant buildup in 2008 and 2009 so wheat also faces the risk of further buildup of supplies if current demand projections remain constant or weaken. The length of the recovery from the recession will influence demand in the export market as well as in the domestic market.”

Nuances from the September Crop Report are being detected by MI State marketing specialist Jim Hilker, who says there were some encouraging signs of more corn use than previously expected. His newsletter is here.
1) USDA raised estimates for corn used for ethanol by 25 mil. bu., lowering carryout.
2) Feed use was raised 50 mil. bu., since cheaper feed raises livestock weights.
3) Exports were raised 100 mil. bu., along with lowering global corn production.
4) Despite 193 mil. bu. more production, carryout was only raised 14 mil. bu. from Aug.

Sept. 30 brings the Quarterly Stocks Report. Jim Hilker says the Sept. 1 corn stocks report becomes the old crop carry-out and new crop carry-in number. Subsequently, that will change the new ending stocks number for the 2009-2010 marketing year.

We’ve covered fungal rots in corn previously, but as more farmers head to the field, more of them are finding ears of corn that are moldy. IL plant pathologist Suzanne Bissonnette says most of the problems will either be fusarium or diplodia ear rot.

Diplodia ear rot will cause a bleached husk and white fluffy fungus around the kernels. However, diplodia will not produce toxins, like the fumonisin produced by fusarium, but the kernels affected by diplodia will be light in weight, shriveled, and poor in quality. Diplodia will thrive in corn stored above 18%. Bissonnette says if the corn can dry in the field, that is beneficial, but once harvested, dry it below 18% for short term storage, or 15% for long term storage. Read more.

Soybean aphids invaded soybean fields in scattered areas of the Cornbelt, but their presence was really made known when the winged individuals recently began their migration from soybeans to buckthorn. Infestations, with high populations, drew attention of the non-farm media when the public began complaining about flying pests.

Combines are like pick-up trucks, they carry a lot of things around, and in some cases things you don’t want, such as fungus from one soybean field to another. OSU plant pathologist Anne Dorrance says sclerotina fungus is being frequently transferred:
1) Harvest problem fields first, clean the combine, then move to fungus-free fields.
2) Harvest problem fields last, then clean the combine before storing for the season.

If you have white mold in soybeans, do yourself a favor and reduce its spread next year by the way you combine your beans. IA State specialist X.B. Yang suggests combining the infested areas last, so the combine does not contribute to the spread of the fungus.

Soybean rust is closing in on the Cornbelt following confirmation that it had spread to the Missouri bootheel thanks to weather perfect for Asian rust. MO plant pathologist Allen Wrather said the infections were extensive with pustules emitting spores. Wrather said most soybeans in that part of the state are in the R6 stage and will not be impacted by rust. But he said soybeans that are R5 or less should be treated with a fungicide. For the latest information about soybean rust consult the USDA website: www.sbrusa.net .

Harvest may be your priority, but add fall herbicide treatment to your list, says OSU weed specialist Mark Loux, who says schedule that around weed life cycles.
1) Before first frost treat warm season perennials including johnsongrass, pokeweed, milkweeds, hemp dogbane and horsenettle which shut down after the first frost.
2) Even after a hard freeze consider control of winter annuals and biennials, such as chickweed, deadnettle, mustards, cressleaf groundsel and others which emerge in fall.
3) Follow suggestions for cool season weed control.

If drought forced you to sell livestock and tax penalties require replacement of the herd, livestock producers in dozens of Cornbelt counties now have a longer time to do just that. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says the 4 year replacement period has been lengthened to “the first tax year after the first drought-free year.” But that door is now closing for many counties on this list.

Profitable cattle feeding? IA State’s John Lawrence says it is possible for a 650# calf to be purchased and fed with $3 corn and make a profit with basis adjusted $88 per cwt April and May futures. Lawrence provides a cost-price matrix to prove his point.

Every little bit helps, say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They calculate that the Sept. Crop Report’s new price estimates of $3.35 for corn and $280 for soybean meal will reduce the cost of producing 100# of pork by 50¢ per live cwt. They are looking for a counter-seasonal rally. Read more.

International trade in pork has changed dramatically from 2008, say Grimes and Plain. Their weekly newsletter reports Jan-July pork exports were down 19.3% from 12 mos. earlier, and pork imports were down 3.6% from year earlier numbers. Pork exports as a share of production were nearly 18% in 2008, and that has declined to 14% for 2009. Live hog imports from Canada were down 32% from the same period of 2008.

So you want to produce biomass? Your crop year will be focused on pre-harvest crop monitoring (scouting), harvesting, transportation, storage, and analysis of the information you collect. And IL ag engineer K. C. Ting says each of those has many steps as he and colleagues try to prepare farmers to produce the next generation of ethanol. And leave it to an ag engineer to build a small unmanned helicopter to help with his crop scouting.

Stu Ellis

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September 18, 2009

Cornbelt Update

2009 is a mirror image of 2008 says IA State marketing specialist Chad Hart with growing season parallels. Read more.
1) Delayed planting concerns gave way to mild growing season weather.
2) Crop conditions are holding, production is up and prices are working downward.
3) Demand for livestock feed is declining, but the decline should halt this year.
4) Demand for ethanol stocks is slow, but the biofuels industry continues to grow.
5) Export demand for 2008 beans set a record, and that will continue for 2009 beans.
6) Lower corn and bean prices imply increased demand helping livestock & biofuels.
7) Markets are concentrating on the supply, but seasonal pricing is returning.
9) Current weather and crop patterns are supporting seasonal pricing trends.
10) For those with storage, higher prices can be found a few months after harvest.
11) Recovery of the economy will point to more demand and possible higher prices.

Mike Woolverton at KS State agrees with Hart. He says, “Absent a faster than expected global economic recovery or an unexpected shock to the system, commodity prices are likely to follow the pattern for big crops. Low harvest-time prices will stimulate demand. Supplies will be reduced as the marketing year progresses, to put upward pressure on prices.” He says soybean supplies will be tight until spring.

The big crop gets bigger adage is true this year, says MO economist Melvin Brees, “However, demand is expected to be at record levels as well. The longer term downside price risks may lie in these use numbers. Continued improvement in the economy and especially improved conditions for livestock producers are likely needed to meet corn use expectations. The risk for soybean prices may be in increased 2010 South American production and stronger competition for exports next spring and summer.”

Operators and landowners are both beginning to think about leases for the 2010 crop year. While most discussions deal with calculation of a fair cash rent, ag law specialists at OH State say there are many other issues that need some serious consideration:
1) What is the resolution process to settle any leasing term disagreements?
2) Does a written or verbal agreement imply a partnership?
3) Does the agreement increase the liability for the action of the other party?
4) Who has access to production records and how does that impact FSA programs?

Wheat growers in the Cornbelt and Great Plains will need to make crop insurance selections soon and those choices are aided by a Crop Insurance Decision Tool, provided by IL ag economists. It calculates premiums, evaluates insurance payments, and provides historical data useful when making crop insurance decisions for wheat harvested in 2010. Find it here.

ACRE decisions were made in August, but Sept. 30 is the deadline for prioritizing a crop. For example, if corn is picked as the first priority and soybeans the second priority, ACRE payments will be received on the maximum number of planted corn acres and the remainder of eligible acres will be allocated to soybeans. That only matters if you have more than one crop and 83.3% of your total acres exceeds your base acres. Read more here.

If your farm is eligible for an ACRE priority, what crop would you select? IL ag economists say their analysis “appears that choosing corn as the first priority, wheat as the second (if wheat is grown), and soybeans as the third will maximize ACRE payments from a farm.” But they also say factors could change that ranking. They recommend checking historical yields in relation to state yields since ACRE payments could change.

The sign-up deadline is Sept. 30 for the Conservation Security Program, and that date will determine payment eligibility. The CSP program is new in the 2008 Farm Bill and IA State economist Mike Duffy says it pays operators based on additional conservation measures they adopt for at least 5 years. Payments will be between $12 and $22 per acre and practices include: injecting or incorporating manure, dust control on unpaved roads, extending existing filter strips, recycling farm lubricants, and going to no-till, and many others. Read more.

Is your corn safe from frost? Maturity is the point at which kernels have maximum dry weight and the plant is safe from yield loss, and that is indicated by the formation of the black layer which is visible on the inward tip of the kernel.
1) Kernels at the butt end of the ear will develop the black layer first.
2) At maturity, weight no longer increases, and a gradual loss of moisture begins.
3) The black layer will form when the grain moisture is around 30 to 35%.
4) Frost about 10 days to 2 weeks prior to black layer will reduce yield 4-5%.
5) Frost about 3 weeks before black layer will reduce yield 10-20%.
6) Frost one month prior to maturity will result in potentially unmarketable grain.

Crop maturity may be a serious concern for you in the wake of frost threats in the offing and crops that are far from maturity. OSU agronomists assembled their observations:
1) When silking occurred by late July, kernel black layer formation occurred Sept. 21.
2) When silking occurred in early Aug., kernel black layer occurred by Oct. 11.
3) When silking occurred in mid-Aug., kernel black layer was formed by Oct. 27.
4) Corn planted as late as mid-June could mature even when GDD was below average.

Crop maturity for soybeans is also a concern for many, even if soybeans planted three weeks late only suffer a one week delay in maturity, says Purdue’s Shaun Casteel. The majority of beans are between R5 and R6 and will reach full maturity in 33 and 18 days respectively. But cool temperatures could prolong that timetable. Casteel says harvest should be well underway in October, and that timetable will challenge wheat planting.

Stressed corn during the growing season may result in stalk rots about harvest time according to MO plant pathologist Laura Sweets, who says scout and be prepared:
1) Fusarium and Gibberella cause a pink discoloration of diseased stalk tissue.
2) Anthracnose will appear as shiny black lesions at the corn stalk nodes.
3) Diplodia causes spongy stalks with mats of white fungal growth.
4) Charcoal rot begins in the roots and plants will break at the crown.

Stalk rots may cause yield losses of 10% to 20% on susceptible hybrids. If more than 10-15% of stalks are rotted, Sweets says the field should be harvested as soon as possible. In preparation for the 2010 crop, management of stalk rots include: 1) select hybrids with good stalk strength and lodging characteristics, 2) plant at recommended populations for that hybrid, 3) follow proper fertility practices, 4) harvest in a timely manner.

Scouting for stalk rots should include the push test, where plants are pushed 45 degrees from vertical at ear level. MN agronomists say plants that break following the push test are at risk for stalk lodging. Stalk strength can also be evaluated by pinching the lower stalk at the first internode above the brace roots. Hollow stalks will collapse from that.

How much field loss will your combine emit? Your goal should be one bushel per acre or less, which is 2 corn kernels or 4 soybeans on the ground per square foot. Without adjusting your combine since last year’s harvest, you may have the same amount of volunteer corn that you saw in your fields this past spring. Here are IA State resources:
1) Combine settings for corn
2) Combine settings for beans
3) Profitable corn harvesting
4) Profitable bean harvesting
5) Harvest safety

“Luck, art, and skill” are the keys to harvesting soybeans says NE ag engineer Tom Dorn, but if you can harvest them at 13% moisture instead of 10%, the additional profit is more than $11 per acre. The benefit is from heavier beans and reduced harvest loses. Read more.

Manage your soybean harvest to cut drying costs and prevent shatter loss, says Dorn:
1) When harvesting tough stems, make combine adjustments and use slower speeds.
2) Begin harvesting at 14% moisture, and even when some leaves remain on the stem.
3) Spread out maturity and harvest by adjusting planting dates and variety selection.
4) Overnight dew and afternoon winds can both change bean moistures.
5) Avoid harvest when beans are driest to maintain moisture and cut shatter losses.
6) If storing beans in a drying bin, begin harvest at 16% moisture and dry to 13%.

Trochanter mealybug. That is a new soybean pest in the Midwest that you will have to learn about, but experts are learning right along with you. Ohio entomologists say they may reduce soybean yields, but there is no data that indicates economic impact. The trochanter mealybug is a root feeder, much like the soybean cyst nematode, and exhibits sap-sucking traits, like the soybean aphid. Symptoms of its presence appear to be a potassium deficiency in soybeans, but OSU specialists say they do not know if there is a relationship with those symptoms and the mealybugs, “Things right now are a bit up in the air in terms of their distribution and if it’s something we need to be concerned about.”

Blank ear tips may cause concern, and certainly cut yield. OSU agronomist Peter Thomison says those kernels are the last to be pollinated and the plant may have run out of pollen, or silks could have suffered from drought stress. Pollen feeding and silk clipping by insects may also contribute to the problem with poorly filled ear tips. He also says those kernels cannot compete as well for nutrients and may have been aborted.

Cellulosic ethanol production may depend, in part, on the availability of corn stover. But IA State researchers are concerned that stover removal has unintended consequences:
1) Soil productivity requires organic matter, and corn stover replaces lost carbon.
2) Crops depend on recycled nutrients, and stover removal impacts decomposition.
3) Stover removal changes greenhouse gas interactions at ground level.

FSA has made grain bin loans, and now it will also help finance construction of barns for storing hay or other types of biomass. The terms of the loan include 85% of the cost of new facilities for up to two years worth of production, and it can be financed at the fixed FSA interest rate for either 7, 10, or 12 years depending on the loan amount. Read more.

Drip irrigation, coming from a network of pipes underground, reduced crop needs for water by 25% and still produced a 200 bu. per acre corn yield in western KS. KS researchers say the reduction in irrigation water compares to sprinkler irrigation at 85% efficiency, and furrow irrigation, which is only 65% efficient.

The swine breeding herd is shrinking says MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, due to increased sow slaughter, which was a little below 2008, but “When adjusted for the shrinkage in the sow herd it was 2.5% above a year earlier. This is the third consecutive week with sow slaughter above a year earlier. Gilt and sow slaughter for the last few weeks suggest producers may have sped up the reduction in herd size.”

Despite 5 weight classes and two genders, the price of cattle in NE is driven by the price of 4-500 lb. steers say NE economists. That contrasts to a similar TX study which found the TX beef market to be driven by 6-700 lb. heifers. The industries are quite different it seems. The TX climate is milder, breeding and feedlot operations are year-round and the heifer can go either to a feedlot or be bred. In NE the primary buyer looks for lightweight steers for feedlots, and his longer time there determines profitability. Read more.

Cattle feeders using DDGS are frequently frustrated with different nutritional values, which change from one ethanol plant to another and from one process to another. A Purdue researcher has developed a process to predict the nutritional value based on the process, and says if a large cattle feeder wants a particular nutrient profile, it is possible.

Happy birthday, today to FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, which celebrates its 25th anniversary. Its economists have provided commodity price projections and policy analysis to Congress, farm groups, and international trade negotiators. Founder Abner Womack said the strength of FAPRI is to give unbiased facts based on numbers to policy makers, and to not recommend policy.

Stu Ellis

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September 11, 2009

Cornbelt Update--UPDATED With September Crop Report

USDA raised the ante by projecting a 12.955 bil. bu. corn crop in its September Crop Report, helped by boosting the average yield from 159.5 bu. in the August report to 161.9 bu. per acre. That would be a record yield and 8 bu. above the 2008 crop. The larger crop prospects came from the western half of the Cornbelt, since a dry August held steady the yields in the eastern part of the Cornbelt.

The Supply-Demand report for corn projects 13.025 bil. in usage, nearly a billion more than last year, helped by higher feed use and higher export demand. Ending stocks were raised slightly and the season average price was tightened to a range of $3.05 to $3.65.

Estimated corn yields in Cornbelt states were: IL 179; IN 163; IA 187; KS 144; MI 146; MN 167; MO 151; NE 169; ND 120; OH 165; SD 147; WI 137.

Soybean production was pushed up to a record of 3.25 bil. bu., a 10% increase from 2008. The average yield was estimated at 42.3 bu. raised slightly with the help of higher yields in all states except IN. The 76.8 mil. acreage estimate was raised slightly from the June estimate.

The Supply-Demand report for soybeans forecasts a record 1.28 bil. bu. in exports because of strong shipments in late August. Increased biodiesel production and meal exports will also be positive, leaving the new crop carryout at 220 mil. bu. The season average price slid 30¢ to a range of $8.10 to $10.10.

Estimated soybean yields in Cornbelt states were: IL 44; IN 43; IA 52; KS 40; MI 38; MN 40; MO 42; NE 51; ND 30; OH 47; SD 39; WI 39.

Ahead of the USDA September Crop Report, the market was looking for:
1) The August estimate for corn was 12.761 bil. bu. from a 159.5 bu. yield.
2) Trade estimates range from 12.697 to 13.127 bil. bu., averaging 12.932 bil. bu.
3) The August estimate for beans was 3.199 bil. bu. from a 41.7 bu. yield.
4) Trade estimates range from 3.186 to 3.309 bil. bu. averaging 3.256 bil. bu.
5) The August estimate for corn carryout was 1.720 bil. bu. for the old crop.
6) Trade estimates range from 1.690 to 1.720 bil bu., averaging 1.712 bil. bu.
7) The August estimate for bean carryout was 110 mil. bu. for the old crop.
8) Trade estimates range from 80 to 110 mil bu., averaging 102 mil. bu.
9) The August estimate for corn carryout was 1.621 bil. bu. in August 2010.
10) Trade estimates range from 1.557 to 1.989 bil. bu. averaging 1.768 bil. bu.
11) The August estimate for bean carryout was 210 mil. bu. in August 2010.
12) Trade estimates range from 178 to 304 mil. bu., averaging 226 mil. bu.

Purdue marketing specialist Chris Hurt says it was “bold” for the USDA to project a 159.5 bu. national yield estimate in the August Crop Report, but he now thinks the national average yield may end up closer to 161.5 bu. per acre. Hurt says not everyone may agree, but he says moderate weather conditions may repeat the 2004 mammoth crop.

If the crop is that large, Hurt says there may be new contract low prices on corn, and that means vulnerability on the downside of prices. Hurt says the market is probably not thinking about a number quite that high at this point; but the economist expects the crop to continue to look good and even improve a little unless there is a frost. “We're likely to see good returns for corn storage -- depressed prices at harvest time and above normal price appreciation going into next spring and summer," he said.

Hurt is also bullish on soybean yields and with the crop rating at its highest in recent years, he thinks the prior record of 43 bu. per acre can be surpassed. “This means there is going to be a lot of soybeans, and prices are going to decrease to get end users to come in and buy more of this crop,” says Hurt. He says South American could add more beans to the supply and $9 beans out of the field this fall will drop under $9 next spring. “However, he said a lot will depend on world demand, the value of the dollar and the ultimate size of the US and South American crops.”

The September production estimate will change believes Mich. State’s Jim Hilker and he adds the market is liable to remain very volatile given remaining production concerns about the corn crop. He says the US corn yield could be anywhere from 8 bu. per acre higher than the August estimate to 159.5 bu. to 6 bu. per acre lower than that. Read more of Hilker’s August newsletter.

Hilker provides some advice on evaluating a decision on storing your corn. He says Dec. futures are 32¢ under July futures, meaning the market is offering 4.6¢ per month to store, which would cover on-farm costs plus interest, but not cover commercial storage.

Hilker says the basis also helps makes the storage decision. He says the expected improvement of the December to July basis would be 20¢, on top of the 32¢ futures carry in the market. That is a total of 52¢ which would more than cover storage costs for on-farm storage, but the market is questioning the 45¢ value of commercial storage.

To achieve that return to storage, Hilker says the grain must be sold either with a forward contract which locks in the price or use a hedge to arrive contract or a futures hedge. He says if you think the market will rise or you have to use commercial storage, use a basis contract. If you think the market will drop, use a hedge to arrive or forward contract for farm-stored corn, or sell any corn that would have to be sent to the elevator.

Production risks remain with the soybean crop also, says Hilker, but a storage decision is not as clear cut. He says there is only an 8¢ spread from November to July futures and storage costs more than 8¢. Hilker adds that the basis may tighten about 20¢ between harvest and June, so the return to storage would total 28¢. Since storage costs and interest are more, Hilker says the market will not pay for storing soybeans. For marketing he says use a basis contract if you think the market will rise, or sell at harvest if you think the market will fall. Regardless, there is no return to storage for beans.

Crop insurance indemnity payments are great, but will require tax planning say MN farm business specialists. For a physical crop loss, the payment can be deferred for taxes until next year, if you are a cash basis taxpayer and typically market your crop the following year from production. However, indemnity payments received because revenue declined must be reported in the year the payment was received. Read more.

Farmland values across the Chicago Federal Reserve District are down 3% compared to year ago levels, caused by drops of 5% in IA & MI, and drops of 2% in IL & WI. IN values were slightly stronger than year ago levels. Fed economist David Oppedahl says corn and bean prices have become a drag on land values, and he adds that plentiful supplies and softer demand will keep downward pressure on farmland values.

The Chicago Fed reports credit conditions “worsened” April through June, with a drop in repayment rates on non-real estate loans. The rate would have been flat were it not for the dairy impact of Wisconsin, where 55% of lenders reported lower repayment rates.

The financial outlook reported by economist Oppedahl was stark: “The tone of comments by (lenders) communicated deep concerns for agricultural producers, especially if livestock and dairy prices do not increase soon and losses continue to mount.” Read more.

The late August hailstorm which shredded crops in a swath 10 miles wide and 200 miles long across northern Iowa is being blamed for a deterioration of crop quality and potential toxic molds in corn. But Iowa State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh believes recent weather enhancing crop drydown will minimize the problems. But still:
1) Kernels bruised by hail will shrivel, be moldy, and pass out of the combine.
2) Undeveloped corn will have free sugars, and have test weights as low as 40 lbs.
3) Aflatoxin risk may have been averted, but feed corn should first be tested.
4) Stalk strength will be weak, and corn should be dried in small batches.
5) Expect discounts for moisture, damage, test weight, and foreign material.

How should damaged corn be handled? Hurburgh says carefully dry and store it.
1) Do not mix any leftover 2008 corn with the less moisture stable 2009 crop.
2) Grain must be cooled when stored, then cyclically lower temperature to 30º’s.
3) Remove bin center cores to eliminate trash, possibly twice in larger bins.
4) Move light corn to the market as soon as possible, and store heavier test weights.

“Train” your yield monitor by calibrating it against a weigh wagon or commercial scale so it will provide a reliable record of your yield, particularly if it is connected to a GPS unit. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says the process reconciles the grain flow rate and the flow sensor signal strength to electronically estimate low, medium, and high yields. He says the owner’s manual may only suggest one load, but more may be needed to fine tune the accuracy. That additional effort is the reason many monitors are not calibrated. Read more.

Visitors at the Farm Progress Show saw one combine in a field demonstration leaving about 100 kernels of corn per square foot, but another combine leaving no grain on the ground. Proper setting of your combine will have a major impact on your revenue for the year. Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna has numerous recommendations about that.
1) Scout your field to look for new erosion gullies and determine stalk strength.
2) Fields with wetter corn will have a delayed harvest, but weak stalks may change that.
3) A 1 bu. per acre loss equals 2-4 kernels per square ft. or 1 ear per 1/100th acre.
4) Start with a low cylinder speed and raise it only to minimize threshing losses.
5) Start with wide concave clearance and reduce it to minimize threshing losses.

Wheat planting is approaching and OH agronomists say 2009 seed is larger and more pounds of seed will have to be used per acre to get enough plants for a good stand. That is 1.2 to 1.6 million seeds per acre in 7.5 in. rows immediately following the fly-free date. If planting more than 2 weeks after the fly free date use 1.6 to 2.0 million seeds per acre.

When wheat is planted on time, the seeding rate has little effect on yield, but if planting more than 30 seeds per foot of row, there is a tendency to increase lodging, and you are spending more money on seed than necessary. Plant at the drill’s calibrated speed.

Unexplained damage to ears of corn may be the result of flocks of birds says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, who says ears will have missing or damaged kernels and husks may be shredded, which can give rise to ear molds and rots, and potential mycotoxins. He says they are attracted to a field because of either the hybrid or the stage of maturity.

Does purple or reddish corn have your curiosity aroused? Those are pigments associated with stresses in the plants that limit their ability to use the products of photosynthesis created during the day. The tendency toward the purple color varies with hybrids which may not have any genes or many genes that trigger the production of the pigment that will turn the plant reddish or purple. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says the color is not a problem, but is an indication of problems with ear size or kernel set.

Cattle slaughter is down says Iowa St. economist Shane Ellis because of lower supplies and weaker demand. He says fewer cattle are being fed and the supply of cull cows is down. While beef cattle slaughter has been down, dairy cow slaughter has been up with little impact on the retail meat market because consumers are opting for hamburger.

The reduced slaughter is due to more timely rain through cattle country say MO economists Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes. They say lower domestic and foreign demand contributed to the weak demand, and they add, “We are likely to see stronger fed cattle prices seasonally but stay below a year earlier. However, prices higher than a year earlier for fed cattle are expected this winter due to smaller production.”

If you sell cull cows, doing so immediately after weaning may not be the best time, says MO livestock specialist David Hoffman. He says cull cow prices are the lowest in the early fall and winter and highest in the late winter and early spring. He recommends adding some weight to them if you have high quality fall forage. He says carcass grade can improve on younger cows and that may mean a $5-8 premium per hundredweight.

Hog slaughter has been consistent says Shane Ellis at Iowa State, who adds that is not good news for producers who need a break in hog prices. He says most price forecasters suggest the low prices will continue into the fourth quarter of the year with steady volume going to market. He says instead of cutting the breeding herd, the industry will need more demand or lower feed costs to return to profitability. Read more.

The average loss per hog from Oct. 2007 through July 2009 is $16.98 for independent pork producers, say MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say that means a $3.6 billion loss for the pork industry, compared to $4.4 billion in 1998 and 1999. But they say the record will be set, because losses will continue for another 10-11 months.

But Grimes and Plain say not every producer has lost that much. They say the average loss was $6.10 per head for the 9% of hogs sold using the packer marketing formula that is based on the futures market. And they say total losses have been reduced for the 13% of hogs sold with purchase agreement contracts tied to feed prices.

While milk cow numbers are dropping, milk production per cow is increasing according to economist Robert Tigner of Nebraska. The dairy herd was 115,000 less in July of 2009 than in July of 2008, and 34,000 less than in June of 2009. However, milk production was up 0.1% or 34 mil. pounds, which shifted from low to high production.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 4:34 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

September 4, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Export business will be a key indicator of new crop corn demand says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good. USDA is predicting 2.1 bil. bu. export trade, 337 mil. less than the 2007 crop, but 250 mil. more than the 2008 crop. So far 284 mil. bu. have been booked for export from new crop stocks, compared to 334 mil. at this time last year. Good says the difference is the lack of sales to Japan, which he says will be made up.

Export business will also be a key indicator of the soybean market says Darrel Good. USDA’s forecast is for1.265 bil. bu., and currently 477 mil. bu. have been booked for export, well above the 271 mil. sold at this time in the record setting pace last year. Read more.

Good believes the consumption of US corn and beans will reach a record level for the current marketing year, but he says prices will depend on how much users are willing to pay in the wake of global economic challenges. He says if a recovery does occur a modest increase in prices would be expected following the harvest of large crops.

Feed demand for corn is 5.3 bil. bu., but Iowa St. specialist Chad Hart says that includes a residual which captures crop loss beyond the field, and with the larger and later crop, he says USDA expects higher corn losses beyond the field. He says the true feed demand is still under pressure given current livestock economics, in which numbers are declining.

Large corn and soybean crops are forecast, but marketing specialist Chad Hart at Iowa St. says there are still significant weather concerns. He says only 18% of the corn is in the dent stage versus the five year average of 43% and pod setting for soybeans is behind as well, with delays in both crops increasing the concern for potential frost damage.

The grain market is pointing to an average $3.10 corn price and $9.60 for soybeans, says Hart, who adds that tight bean stocks have caused an inversion in the market with Sept. having a $1 premium over Nov. He says concerns about the weather, advance export strength, and Argentine farm strikes are helping support prices. Read more.

The corn price is languishing says Mike Woolverton at Kansas St., because of the crop size potential. He says last year’s long fall was beneficial to the crop, and this year’s has a greater yield potential of 12.8 bil. bu. if the first freeze holds off long enough.

Soybeans have the potential to kick-start the commodity complex says Woolverton, because global buyers bought up the supply. He says domestic crushers offered larger premiums over the summer and still complained about the tight supply. Woolverton says, “Every bean in every pod is needed this year. Anything that knocks the top off of the yield projection will cause soybean price to move up; perhaps sharply.”

Early grain sales have paid off for MN marketing specialist Ed Usset who was selling spring wheat for $8.71 or $3.50 higher than Sept. futures at harvest. His philosophy:
1) I do NOT make early sales because my “outlook” calls for lower prices by harvest.
2) I do NOT make early sales because of the value of the dollar, the size of the Canadian wheat crop or my general expectations concerning the economy, etc.
3) I do NOT make early sales because of advice from a market advisor or broker.
4) I make sales because I understand my own operation and my own cost of production, and these are sale prices that work for me.

Conflicting reports of land value trends confuse buyers say IL economists Bruce Sherrick and Paul Ellinger, who list some buffers that keep prices from falling. Read more.
1) Farmers with cash and recent high incomes are supporting local farmland markets.
2) It is not as costly to secure financing because of low interest rates.
3) Returns are less attractive on alternative investments.
4) Land markets seem to move slowly.
5) Long term institutional investors have increased interest in land holdings.
6) There are low debt levels on land, unlike the situation in the 1980’s.

Will cool temperatures impact grain fill in corn? That’s a good question says Purdue’s Bob Nielsen, “Unfortunately, the effects of such an unusually cool grain filling period on corn maturity dates and yield in the central Cornbelt are not well known, partly because the historical occurrence of such unusually cool grain filling periods is so infrequent.” But he says the plant slowly shuts down in cool temperatures, even without frost.

Corn fields with loss of leaf color, firing and premature loss of photosynthesis should not be a reason to change nitrogen management next year says IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger. While there have been two successive years of those problems, those losses are unusual, and he says do not make large changes in rate, form, or timing. He says it should not happen next year, but consider ways to manage N to reduce loss potential.

Weeds may be maturing in many fields, ready to spread seed back into the soil at harvest time. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says there are several herbicides that have a relative short time restriction between application and harvest and could be applied. Read more. However, he says given the current development stage of weeds, preharvest herbicides may not do much to limit weed seeds.

Fungal ear rots have enjoyed the weather, and may be prevalent in your field, but you need to identify which you have to determine how it should be handled at harvest time. Fusarium will produce fumonisin, aspergillus will produce aflatoxin, but diplodia should not be considered a serious problem unless it contributes to stalk rot and standability.

Ear rot fungi will develop while moisture is above 18%, whether in storage or in the field. Long term storage requires moisture below 14% if aspergillus is developing. Diplodia is not a big worry for storage says IL specialist Suzanne Bissonnette, in her newsletter.

If ear rots are present, it is important to harvest the field in a timely manner and to store the grain under the best possible conditions says Laura Sweets at Univ. of MO. Adjust harvest equipment for minimum kernel damage and maximum cleaning. Grain should be thoroughly cleaned to remove lightweight, damaged or broken and moldy kernels.

You probably have time to clean out bins and prepare them for new crop storage, and that will reduce the potential for problems with insects in grain. That includes cleaning the inside and outside of the bin along with all grain handling equipment and filling any holes or cracks. Treat the walls and floors with a residual insecticide. Read more.

A late harvest creates problems for fall fertilizer applications, and IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez suggests the possibility of a biennial P & K application before a corn crop, but he says either fall or spring applications can be made. He says a fall application may allow a loss of the nitrogen accompanying P in MAP and DAP. Read his newsletter.

One in five pounds of pork was exported in 2008, helping support pork prices, says livestock economist Shane Ellis at Iowa St., but this year pork exports have been down nearly 40% during the summer. He says that is part of the reason price forecasts suggest that the painfully low hog prices will continue into the fourth quarter of 2009. He says the solution is not to cut a half million sows, but more demand and lower feed costs.

“Our problem in the hog industry is not demand relative to the past but high costs of production because of ethanol,” say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. “However, the only way to solve the problem is to reduce production because feed costs are going to stay high relative to history.” They say consumer demand is up 4%.

Farmer-lender mediation cases in Minnesota have tripled in the past year from 133 in 2008 to 433 in 2009. MN specialist Rob Holcomb says the steady increase in the number of farm loans in trouble is expected to increase because of low livestock prices and ripple effects of the general economy. The number of cases began to increase in January.

Production costs will be lower in 2010 believes Purdue economist Bruce Erickson. He says fall ammonia will be $400-$500 per ton, but K is still averaging over $600. He does not believe seed prices will rise in 2010 so budget $100 per acre for corn. And Erickson says lower prices are likely for herbicides, including glyphosate.

As we enter the hurricane season, IN climatologist Dev Niyogi says if any sweep into the Cornbelt, note the soil moisture ahead of the storm. He says, “If the ground is wet, the storm is likely to sustain, while dry conditions should calm the storm.”

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 2:29 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

August 28, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Despite a big 12.7 bil. bu. corn crop, demand is strong and both USDA and FAPRI are projecting a nearly 12.9 bil. bu. demand. MO marketing specialist Melvin Brees says carryover may well be 1.6 bil. bu., which is large, but he says not excessive, and with the large demand the ratio of ending stocks to usage will be below average. Read more.

There are positives and negative “ifs” which impact the grain market says Brees,
1) Corn use could be limited by increased DDGS feeding if ethanol refining increases.
2) USDA’s corn export projections will be met, if world demand consumes its stocks.
3) Soybean exports should remain strong, if China’s appetite for soybeans remains.

Don’t be mislead by USDA price estimates of $3.50 for corn and $9.40 for beans for the marketing year. Melvin Brees says those estimates include grain that had been forward contracted at higher price levels earlier in the year and they do not suggest that cash prices will return to higher levels. He says that is a corn/soy price ratio of 2.7 to 1 and current new crop futures are suggesting almost 3 to 1. Since the market indicates it wants more soybeans, South American farmers will respond to that message first.

Store or sell? Brees says that decision may be depend, in part, on the ability of the crop to mature. He says if it matures without damage, then watch for market signals for storage. He says new crop corn is breakeven at best and March corn has a 13¢ premium over December, but that won’t cover storage costs, unless the corn/soy ratio changes.

The downside risk for soybean prices could increase says Melvin Brees. He says the November to March spread is 10¢ which offers no return to storage and if the US crop escapes the frost only to see production increases in South America, that downside risk will increase. He is not yet ruling out an improvement for post harvest basis gains. He’s looking at selling beans at profitable prices and storing corn, if a decision has to be made.

Soybean exports would be helped if China keeps buying says SD marketing specialist Alan May. He says USDA may have to increase its export projection if that happens, “The challenge for soybeans however, is that the projections for world production and supplies are higher for this coming marketing year and while demand for US soybeans remains strong, the balance of world supplies will determine where US exports settle.”

Most corn should have silked by now, which OH agronomists say means maturity is 7 to 8 weeks away, and with temperatures averaging 60º lows and 80º highs, that 20 GDD credit should get corn from the blister stage to maturity in 52 days, from the early dough stage to maturity in 39 days, from the early dent stage in 25 days, and full dent in 12 days. If temperature averages drop to 55º and 75º, then GDD accumulate at 15 per day.

If your corn is in the early dent stage today it needs 510 Growing Degree Days to reach black layer and be safe from frost, despite potential 30%+ moisture. The potential for accumulating that many GDD’s depends on your latitude. If you are north of the OH-MI border, your average frost date of Oct 10-20 will provide 538-622 more GDD’s.

If your corn is in the early dough stage today it needs 775 more GDD’s to reach the black layer safety threshold. While you may not have that much heat remaining in the season, Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says late planted corn has the ability to adjust its maturity requirements and reach black layer 200-300 GDD earlier than expected.

Do you have Blunt Ear Syndrome? It is also known as “beer can” ears, and makes corn ears about that size, but no one knows why. Purdue’s Nielsen says he’s leaning toward the effect of a cold shock during ear size determination that either injures the ear shoot or changes the hormonal balance within the developing ear shoot. If you find BES, fill out his questionnaire.

September temperatures should parallel the prior segments of the growing season in the mind of OH meteorologist Jim Noel. He says, “Temperatures should return toward normal or even slightly above this week and then resume the below normal tendency by this weekend into next week followed by normal the week of Sept. 6-12. Also, note that after a very cool weekend, indications are this coming weekend into early next week will be quite cool too with some lows in the 40s by early next week!”

July had record cool temperatures, but what happened to yields in parallel crop years? That is what IA meteorologist Elwynn Taylor has been studying and he reports:
1) Seasonal heat accumulation trends in 1992, 2003 and 2004 through mid-August all experienced significantly colder weather than average, similar to the current season.
2) Crops have a yield advantage with early heat and late season cool temperatures.
3) In 1992 crops were immature when it frosted early and grain quality was an issue.
4) In 2004 Sept was dry with above average GDD and yields were highly variable.

Elwynn Taylor says, “The delay in reaching silk and setting pods is an issue and although we are filling kernels and pods now, we are racing the season to get to maturity. Barring an early frost, things should be OK, but dry-down may be an issue as it was in 1992. The difference is that August 2009 has been more favorable for grain fill.” Read more.

The world’s farmers will converge on the Farm Progress Show Sept. 1-3 at Decatur, IL. The all-weather Progress City site has been expanded to accommodate more companies with bigger exhibits. BASF and Bayer have exhibits for the first time, joining Monsanto and Dow which have substantial biotech layouts. Attend marketing seminars, get a free health check-up, and watch livestock and horse handling demonstrations. Yes, there will be harvest and tillage demos, since an early planted corn field is ready to combine. Find maps, ticket details, exhibitor lists and more.

Equity losses for pork producers may be exceeding those from 1998-99, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt, who says the current downturn is longer and more severe. Part of the reason is the slower reaction to cut the breeding herd, which has only dropped 3%, compared to 10% a decade ago. But why has the industry reacted slowly:
1) High feed prices are the current problem, and they have not declined as expected.
2) The export surge by China was a one-time event, and demand has diminished.
3) The current pork producers have not had to make such a large adjustment downward.
4) The industry has enjoyed profitability and built equity and decided to live off of it.

Pork production will remain in the red this fall and winter with prices in the $40-42 range and production costs near $45. Chris Hurt says if prices rise to the upper $40 range next spring with costs just below that level, then profit opportunities may appear early in 2010. For the balance of next year, Hurt expects $2 to $5 profits per head.

Regarding pork exports, they were 14% of production for Jan to June, compared to 17.8% for the same period last year. Most of the decline in pork exports is attributed to the H1N1 flu, falsely called “swine flu,” says MO economist Glenn Grimes. During that time frame, imports from Canada were down 33% compared to year ago levels.

Although meat prices are stronger they are not being passed onto the producer. Grimes and his colleague Ron Plain say processors and retailers are the only segment of the industry benefitting. For the first 7 months of the year the processor and retailer margin for beef was up 9.6% from 2008, and up 15.4% for pork processors and retailers.

Lower commodity prices are holding down inflation in the grocery store says Purdue economist Corrine Alexander. She says 2010 food prices would increase 2.5% to 3.5%, not the 5.5% increase seen in 2008 when corn approached $8 and wheat was $13. She says restaurant prices rose 3.2% in July 2009 over 2008, much less than normal. Regarding meat, she says meat prices can’t rise with domestic supplies so high.

If alternatives are needed for 2010 credit sources, FSA has a variety of lending options for farmers who cannot obtain credit from commercial banks or the Farm Credit System. Details are here.
1) Direct loans finance land & buildings up to $300,000, with 50% coming elsewhere.
2) Operating loans finance input purchases & living expenses up to $300,000,
3) Emergency loans help recover from disaster, restore property, and pay living costs.
4) Beginning farmers can get direct and guaranteed loans to start up an operation.
5) FSA loans will help socially disadvantaged farmers buy and operate family farms.
6) Youth loans of up to $5,000 help age’s 10-20 finance income producing enterprises.

Farm Storage Loans are also now available from FSA which will cover grain storage. The loan limits have been raised to $500,000 and the loan term has been extended from 7 to a 12 year payoff period. Funds will able be available for the construction stage.

Were you able to cover your production costs for old crop wheat? USDA thinks 90% of farmers were able to, based on the $6.80 average marketing year price. A global wheat shortage and adverse weather bolstered the US wheat market. USDA says that 25% of producers had production costs of $3.20 per bu. or less, and 75% had production costs of $5.17 per bu. or less. Costs did not include labor and land, but read more.

What is your debt load per acre? You may never have figured it, but that is a tool used by South American farmers, who say the average Mato Grosso farmer has $50 per acre in debt servicing, on top of his $65 per acre production cost for soybeans. Because of the heavy debt cost, policy initiatives may be developed to reduce Brazilian interest rates.

Soybean rust has been on the move in the early part of August, but remains in AR & MS as its most northern reaches. Confirmed infestations are only a few counties south of the major parts of the Midwestern soybean belt, meaning soybean growers should monitor the alert system: www.sbrusa.net . It will help make decisions on rescue treatments.

More disease problems are showing up. MN plant pathologist Dean Malvick is warning soybean growers that yields may decline from Sudden Death Syndrome, Brown Stem Rot, downy mildew, and white mold. He says the weather is favoring those fungi and there is no effective treatment that can be applied at this time in the growing season.

In NE the problem is grasshoppers which are decimating newly emerged wheat. Specialists are warning farmers to plant high risk fields as late as possible with the hope populations will decline after a frost. Seeding rates are also being recommended along field margins to compensate from a partial stand. Foliar insecticides are alternatives.

Another NE problem is Goss’s Wilt in corn, particularly in the western counties where high winds, hail, sandblasting, and other issues occurred to create tissue wounds that allowed bacteria to enter. Severe yield losses are associated with the disease. The problem cannot be controlled with foliar fungicides, but use resistant hybrids next year. Compare the symptoms with your own crop.

If you are concerned about soybeans being delayed and not maturing before a frost, agronomist Mike Staton is telling MI farmers that the vast majority of MI soybeans should mature before a killing frost. His rule of thumb is that for every 3 days of planting delay, physiological maturity is delayed by only one day. He says with shorter days, soybean plants are moving through reproductive stages more quickly than normal.

Soybean aphid thresholds are causing OH entomologists to scratch their heads, if the aphids arrive in the late reproductive stage. They do not yet have a good handle on economic injury level, and say the 250 aphid per plant threshold earlier in the season is likely too low for late season infestations. They say monitor the population trends.

Check your calendar and geography for the optimum date for seeding alfalfa, to ensure it has 6-8 weeks of growth before a killing frost, says IL crop specialist Jim Morrison. Cool-season perennial grasses can be seeded 1-2 weeks later. Warm-season perennial grasses should not be seeded until the spring. Review all of his recommendations. Morrison suggests you create a forage replay checklist which would include:
1) Ensure there is no residue carryover from previously applied herbicides.
2) Have perennial weed problems been adequately controlled?
3) Corrective limestone and fertilizer should have been applied.
4) No-till forage seedings can be successful, and plant at the spring seeding rate.
5) Use high quality seed and fresh Rhizobium innoculant.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:35 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

August 21, 2009

Cornbelt Update

“Big crops get bigger,” is the likely mindset of the grain market with USDA’s forecast of 12.761 bil. bu. of corn which is 4.6 bu. above the trend yield for 2009 corn, and IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says there is evidence that large yield forecasts in August are followed by larger forecasts in following months. Read his weekly newsletter.

However, the crop will be challenged with the severe hail damage in Iowa, dry weather in other growing areas, and the modest deterioration in crop conditions that peaked in late June at 72% good to excellent and have recently faded to 68% good to excellent. Based on those conditions, Good’s team forecast is now at 158.2 bu. national yield. But he says crop estimates may still grow and will put pressure on harvest prices.

USDA’s forecast of 3.199 bil. bu. of soybeans is not considered large by Darrel Good, and is a half bushel below the trend line yield. He says August weather has not been perfect and his crop weather model points to a 44.1 bu. national yield. But he says while the crop is at more risk to late season weather, there is still an opportunity for larger yield and production forecasts, which would likely cause more price weakness into harvest.

New crop corn carryover will be 12.6% of use, compared to the 14.3% for the old crop. Marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Mich. St. says he believes the futures market price average of $3.20 more than the USDA weighted price estimate of $3.50, unless the crop shrinks, the demand grows, and/or oil prices spike; with few marketing opportunities.

If new crop soybean carryover is only 6.8% of use, why is the USDA average price at only $9.40? Jim Hilker says part of the reason is a projected 15% increase in the size of the world soybean crop, and projected world ending stocks of beans up 25% from last year. That is the result of larger crops in the US, Brazil, and also in Argentina.

If you want to estimate your corn yields, there are some important rules to follow:
1) Count the number of harvestable ears in 1/1000 of an acre. (17.5 ft. for 30 in. rows)
2) On every 5th ear, count the number of kernel rows per ear and determine the average.
3) On each of those, count the number of good kernels per row and average.
4) Yield equals ear # times ave. row # times ave. kernel #, then divide by 90.
5) Repeat the process at four sites across the field, and average the results.

Any ACRE payments are 14 months away for the 2009 crops. But based on current price and yield trends, KS economist Art Barnaby has been estimating potential payments.
1) Wheat: MO-$41.02, IL-$47.55, SD-$30.40, MI-$39.12, WI-$35.89, MN-$26.59,
IN-$33.12, OH-$18.73, ND-$1.83, KS-$0, NE-$0.
2) Corn: WI-$76.70, ND-$53.10, MI-$59.94, IL-$74.60, MN-$57.22, IN-$53.62,
MO-$41.75, KS Dry-$26.84, KS IR-$51.85, NE IR-$49.90, IA-$36.51, OH-$23.02
3) Soybeans: ND-$13.47, IN-$13.93, IL-$11.43, MI-$2.66, MN-$1.44, Others-$0
4) Sorghum: IL-$41.85, MO-$40.33, KS-$24.56, NE-$21.44, SD-$0.

FAPRI has revised its price forecasts for commodities over the next few years as University of MO economists updated their 10 year economic baseline:
1) Recovery of meat and dairy prices depends on the economy and supply reduction.
2) Petroleum prices will be down with demand, taking down the demand for biofuels.
3) When the economy recovers, commodity demand and prices will rise with oil.
4) Oil prices are projected to average $61.31 in 2009/10 and $94 by 2015.
5) Omaha ethanol will climb from $1.65 in 2009 to $1.76 in 2011 and $2.09 in 2015.
6) Corn prices will average $3.47 this year and $3.98 by 2014.
7) Corn plantings will be 88.5 mil. acres in 2010 and 90.4 mil. acres in 2014.
8) Soybean plantings will be 77.9 mil. acres in 2010 and 78 mil. acres in 2014.
9) Soybean prices will be $9.44 in 2009, $9.12 in 2010, and $9.74 in 2014.
10) Fed cattle will be $85 in 2009, $93 in 2010, and $98 in 2011.
11) Feeder steers will be $103 in 2009, $115 in 2010, and $123 in 2011.
12) Hogs will average $57.59 in 2011, up from $42.82 in 2009.
13) The all-milk average of $12.47 in 2009 will be $16.37 by 2011.

Economists at University of Missouri’s Food and Ag Policy Research Institute have tried to quantify the impact of the Cap and Trade climate legislation on MO farms. Their preliminary study adds operating costs of $30,000 by 2050 on a 1,900 acre diversified farm, assuming fertilizer costs were exempted from rising until 2025.

Cutting a half million sows from the breeding herd is not the answer to pork profitability says John Lawrence at Iowa State. He says the pork industry needs more demand, lower feed costs, or lower supplies to be profitable. He suggests there are some short term solutions that might be better than cutting sows to reduce the pork supply.
1) Remove the incentive for heavy carcasses and run packing plants more efficiently.
2) Finishers must be willing to sell at lower weights pursuant to market signals.
3) Cull pigs should not be passed on to the next level for inefficient feeding.
4) Adjusting carcass weights and slaughter numbers will be faster than culling sows.

Pork profitability may key upon the relationship between fixed and feed costs. Iowa State’s Lawrence says fixed costs are now smaller than feed costs, so increasing pigs or pounds out the door is not as important as reducing feed costs per pig. “Fewer, but more efficient, pigs in the barn will increase profits compared to more pigs at less efficiency.”

A red flag alert is being issued by MO agronomists about saving wheat seed to plant the 2010 crop. They are concerned about the extent of fusarium head blight or scab that was severe in some fields in 2009, and are finding germination rates at only 50% to 60%. They say if infected seed is planted, it will infect the stand of the new crop.

You may have heard your state had record cold temperatures in July. That includes: IA, IL, IN, OH, PA, and WV. The entire eastern half of the nation was much below normal, except for FL, LA, & TX which were above normal and OK that was near normal. That comes from OSU meteorologist Jim Noel, who says expect an early September that has temperatures that are slightly below normal and rainfall that is at or below normal.

Hail damaged corn will not only cut quantity, but quality as well, say IA plant pathologists Alison Robertson and Gary Munkvold, who fear a risk of mycotoxin contamination in hail damaged corn, particularly from fusarium and aspergillus fungi. They say ear rots may lead to toxins, but not always; however inspect fields before harvest and delivery of the corn to avoid surprising dock or complete rejection. Read more.

If aspergillus mold affects your corn, and aflatoxin is produced, it will be rejected at levels above 20 parts per billion due to FDA regulations. MO specialist Allen Wrather says the mold can grow quickly in the field and in storage if the corn is at 18-20% moisture. He says to cut the risk, dry corn to 15% within 24 hours of harvest.

There will be fewer aflatoxin problems in Bt corn says Wrather, because they will be more resistant to ear worm damage in the kernel. He says Bt varieties do not resist ear worms, but there will be less feeding injury from ear worms.

White mold remains an issue in soybeans, where a cool wet summer has been the perfect environment. Fungicides are not an option, and the damage you see began a month ago within the soybean plant. For future management, IA specialists say consider no-till if rotating soybeans with corn, or use Contan after harvest to control it for 2010. Planting seed that is tolerant to white mold is a prime recommendation from them.

Ohio farmers are in a garden spot says OSU agronomist Jim Beuerline, due to good growing weather. Wheat yields averaged 71 bu., 1 bu. shy of the record. He says corn yields are estimated at 165 bu., which would break the record by 6 bu. One of the reasons is increasing final corn populations to over 30,000 on 34% of the acreage. And despite some white mold, soybean yields are expected at a record tying 47 bu.

Ensure your calendar is marked for the Farm Progress Show on Sept. 1, 2, & 3 at Decatur, IL. The Show site is at Exit 144 on I-72 on the northeast corner of the city. Access to the all-weather site and ease of parking are unsurpassed.

Cornbelt Update circulates in Brazil and Argentina, and a parallel newsletter published at: www.cropspotters.com this week carries several interesting articles, including:
1) Gov. Blairo Maggi says Mato Grosso can double food production without clearing land, but by switching pasture to cropland, since 8% is cropped and 25% is in pasture.
2) Brazilian biodiesel has increased its soy content from 3% to 4%, with production increasing from 322 mil. gal. in 2008 to nearly 500 mil. gal. in 2009.
3) Japanese investors are financing a 600 mi. ethanol pipeline from Brasilia to Sao Paulo.
4) Current prices: gas (25% ethanol) $5.37, ethanol $3.52, diesel (4% biodiesel) $4.12.

By the way, join the farm gate blog on Twitter http://twitter.com/stusAgNews

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:21 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

August 14, 2009

Cornbelt Update

August 14 is the ACRE sign-up deadline if 2009 crops are to be enrolled in the USDA’s new risk management program. Records are not required at sign-up, only the signatures of operators and owners, or operators with power of attorney for owners. The program is designed to compensate if farm revenue fails to match state revenues.

Based on Wednesday’s crop report, Purdue marketing specialist Chris Hurt expects ACRE to provide a payment for 2009 IN corn. “With current information, and assuming the 163 bushel yield will hold, this means if the US average farm price for the 2009 crop is below $3.58/bushel the state ACRE payment would be triggered. USDA estimated on August 12 that the US farm price would be between $3.10 and $3.90. The midpoint of that range is $3.50. At $3.10, the average Indiana corn ACRE payment would be $65/acre of corn planted in 2009. At $3.20 it would be $51/acre; at $3.30 $37/acre and at $3.50-the midpoint of their estimate, 2009 corn ACRE payments would be $10/acre.”

Chris Hurt thinks soybeans will also earn an ACRE payment. “USDA on August 12 estimated that IN soybean yields would be 45 bu. per acre. With current information, and assuming the 45 bushel yield will hold, this means if the US average farm price for the 2009 crop is below $9.71 per bu. the state ACRE payment would be triggered. USDA estimated on August 12 that the US farm price would be between $8.40 and $10.40. The midpoint of that range is $9.40. At $8.40, the average Indiana soybean ACRE payment would be $49/acre of soybeans planted in 2009. At $9.00 it would be $27 per acre; at $9.40-the midpoint of their estimate, 2009 soybean ACRE payments would be $12/acre.”

The biggest surprise in the USDA crop report this week was the fact USDA did not lower planted corn acres, after announcing that 7 states would be resurveyed for planted acreage. KS marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says harvested acres were cut by 100,000, but USDA stayed with the June 30th estimate of 87 million acres planted.

Yields are the biggest questions now, says Woolverton at KS State. He says USDA raised the projected yield to 159.5 bu. compared to the 153.9 bu. yield of 2008. Woolverton says corn was planted late in the eastern Cornbelt, which normally cuts yield. And he says 1/3 of the Cornbelt has been dry for several weeks, and the late August forecasts which call for cooler temperatures will slow crop development.

The USDA Supply-Demand report held bullish news for soybeans in the mind of Woolverton. With USDA adjusting estimates for planted and harvested acres, plus the crush and export demand for 2010, as well as the residual category, Woolverton says USDA was trying to keep new beans above the bare minimum pipeline supply. He says any cut in soybean yield in future reports will tighten stocks and ration the supply.

A large corn crop and a drop in prices may stimulate the ethanol industry, says Purdue’s Chris Hurt, “The big question that will determine whether we can turn some of those ethanol plants back on is the blending wall with E10," Hurt said, "Whether the EPA does or does not allow us to go to E15 is going to be critical in this market."

Corn yield prospects continue to improve, say IL crop forecasters basing their numbers on weather data and crop conditions. The trend yield is 154.9 bu. for corn, but depending on August weather they say they national yield could range from 158.5 to 171.1 bu. Read more.
1) Illinois corn yields could range from a low of 164.2 to 180.6 for a high.
2) Indiana corn yields could range from a low of 160.0 to 174.1 for a high.
3) Iowa corn yields could range from a low of 188.1 to 201.1 for a high.
4) Based on current conditions, US corn production could reach 12.9 bil. bu.

Soybean yield prospects are improving say IL ag economists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin, and meteorologist Mike Tannura. The trend yield is 42.2 bu., but depending on August weather they say they national yield could range from 41.4 bu. to 45.6 bu. Read more.
1) Illinois bean yields could range from a low of 44.7 to 49.6 for a high.
2) Indiana bean yields could range from a low of 46.4 to 49.9 for a high.
3) Iowa bean yields could range from a low of 51.8 to 57.4 for a high.
4) Based on current conditions, US soybean production could reach 3.37 bil. bu.

Wheat exports will have to hustle to make USDA’s target, based on shipments since the marketing year began on June 1. The target is 925 mil. bu. and the total export inspections to date are 130.7 mil. bu., which are already nearly 100 mil. behind the pace of last year. However, IL economist Darrel Good says 2008 was a fast paced year.

Wheat futures were near $7 in early June, but spot cash prices for soft red winter wheat are in the low $3 range, which is a function of the weak basis. Darrel Good says there is a poor export demand for US wheat, but it could pick up if a strong El Nino dries out the Australian wheat crop or if low prices curtail US wheat plantings this fall. Read his weekly newsletter.

Good wheat crops around the world are offsetting a reduction in planted acreage says KS State marketing specialist Mike Woolverton, who adds global production will be down only 3%. US production will be down 13% due to smaller total area planted. He says USDA’s marketing year average farm wheat price will be $4.70 to $5.70 per bu.

Are you hedging or speculating? IL ag law specialist Gary Hoff says 1,700 more auditors have been hired by the IRS to increase audits, and hedging transactions will be among their points of interest. Hoff says hedging losses must be accompanied by a transaction to deliver the grain to fulfill the contract. Farmers without sufficient grain storage, who “store on the board,” are engaging in speculation and deductions change.

Soybean aphids #1. IL researchers have found soybean genetics that allow soybeans to resist a threat by aphids—2 US public varieties and a Japanese variety. The US varieties were not adaptable to the Midwest, so breeding programs have expanded the seed supply and a commercial variety with glyphosate tolerance should be on the market in 2010.

Soybean aphids #2. The IL soybean breeders however found a new aphid specie that is not impaired by the US varieties, but the Japanese variety still has resistance to this new aphid. Researchers say the Japanese variety will be released commercially as a non-GMO bean to help organic soybean growers avert serious problems with aphids.

Soybean aphids #3. Aphid densities for 2009 throughout most of the Cornbelt are well below economic thresholds of 250 aphids per plant with 80% of plants infested, says IL crop specialist Jim Morrison who adds, “I urge growers not to treat soybean fields that are below the economic threshold because of the questionable yield benefit and the certain negative effects an insecticide application will have on natural enemies.”

Soybean aphids #4. OH State entomologists want you to, “Remember that the threshold for treatment is an average of 250 aphids per plant with the population rising. Economic damage will not occur until you reach 700-800 aphids per plant. The level of 250 aphids per plant is a very conservative threshold.” That threshold was established to give a grower time to arrange for the crop to be sprayed before the large threshold was reached.

Soybean aphids #5. Winged aphids are reported by IA entomologist Erin Hodgson to be moving, and she urges continued scouting because fields that might have been clean last week could have aphids this week. Hodgson says as plants mature they become less attractive to aphids, but they will feed on plants that are at the R7 stage.

Soybean aphids #6. Is there an economic advantage for treatment to late stage soybeans that have aphid infestations? Hodgson says treatments pay to the R5.5 stage, and research on aphid treatment at R6 yielded mixed results. She says soybean plants at R6 may be able to tolerate more aphids without experiencing a yield loss.

Don’t try to order them for 2010, but soybeans with a Bt gene to protect them from soybean aphids and Japanese beetles may be available in future years. That is the prediction of IL entomologist Mike Gray following successful research in Georgia to develop Bt beans that fight insects indigenous to Southern states.

Volunteer Bt corn may be creating monsters in your soil say entomologists. Purdue’s Christian Krupke has found numerous fields with volunteer corn, which had rootworm Bt genes and other traits, which he said was an unforeseen consequence of gene stacking. At IL Mike Gray says that escalates the evolution of resistance for rootworms to Bt genes, since they are feeding on plants that have reduced levels of the Bt toxins.

Volunteer corn not only is a threat to create resistant rootworms, but creates weed control issues as well, says IL agronomist Vince Davis, in his latest newsletter. Davis cites two issues:
1) You may be spending too much money for a second herbicide to control herbicide resistant weeds, since the cost is the result of planting the first herbicide resistant crop.
2) Concerns are becoming more prevalent that the inability to control volunteer corn that is glyphosate tolerant will help convey Bt resistance to corn rootworms.

Volunteer corn cuts soybean yields according to a variety of researchers quoted by NE specialists. 5,000 volunteer stalks per acre will reduce bean yields by 20%. Also bean yields are cut by 1% for every 75-115 clumps of corn per acre. The NE specialists say any delay in controlling volunteer corn requires higher rates and higher costs.

After vacationing on the Gulf Coast, soybean rust is venturing northward, and has returned to work with jobsites in southeastern Arkansas and central Mississippi. Those states were added to the USDA Asian rust website. Since the Aug. 10 finding in those states, more counties in Florida and Georgia were added.

An early harvest of 19% moisture corn with a 75ºF starting temperature is fraught with peril if your drying system fails. NE specialist Tom Dorn says a full market grade can be lost in only 5 days if the grain is allowed to heat and deteriorate. Dorn also says:
1) Stored grain insects cannot live on extremely dry grain of less than 10% moisture.
2) It is impractical to dry grain below the mold threshold of 15% winter, 14% summer.
3) Insects are generally inactive below 55ºF and will not reproduce.
4) Incrementally warm grain in the spring or moisture will condense in the bin middle.

Park your herbicide sprayer, say Purdue specialists who say soybeans are setting pods and it is too late for both Liberty Link and Roundup. They say leaf burn on mature plants is worse than on young plants, which grow out of that problem. And they add that most weeds are going to be too tall for any effective control at this time in the season.

Western bean cutworms may be cutting into your corn ears, but unless you have a high value food grade corn Purdue specialists say a rescue treatment may not pay:
1) Control, in corn that has already pollinated, will likely be less than 50%.
2) 1 larva/ear at dent stage corn is approximately equal to a 4 bushel/acre loss.
3) Ear damage opens the door for molds, a concern in food grade corn.
4) Larvae in the ear will NOT be controlled, larvae exposed or that exit the ear can be.
5) Larvae become less mobile as temperatures increase.
6) Increased carrier volume will improve the canopy penetration into the ear zone.
7) Insecticides will provide about a week of efficacy, depending on the environment.
8) Pre-Harvest intervals for insecticides must be followed (most are 21 to 30 days).
9) YieldGard® does not prevent or control western bean cutworm, Herculex® does.

How long did your corn silks grow? They typically emerge a couple days after tassel emergence, but Purdue’s Bob Nielsen says the cool weather brought some out early and he’s measure silks up to 9 inches long. Nielsen says many farmers have expressed concern about the long silks impeding fertilization, and he says if they began emerging before the tassel and began to deteriorate, their kernel may not develop. Read his comments.

Pork producers should buckle their seat belt. That is the advice of MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes who says marketings are not current, there is extra tonnage, and the number of hogs backed up for fall and winter marketing “will be brutal for hog producers. Prices in the lower $30’s for 51-52% lean hogs are likely. There is a relative high probability that losses in 2009 will exceed 1998 losses.”

Stu Ellis

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August 7, 2009

Cornbelt Update

One week is left before the 2009 sign-up deadline for ACRE, the Average Crop Revenue Election farm program. August 14 is the final day to enroll your farm, and signatures of operators and owners are all that is needed at this time. Your historical yield records data will be needed July 15 to qualify for any payments that might be earned from the 2009 crop. Find help here.

155 bu./A with the corn crop at 12.403 bil. bu. is the forecast of Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker when the August Crop Report is released August 12. He adds, “If the report varies much from expectations, you could see some significant price swings. If they shoot up, have some price targets in place, if they shoot down, I really hope you are signed up for the ACRE program.” Read more.

Hilker’s soybean forecast calls for a below trend yield of 42.2 bu./A and a total crop of 3.234 bi. bu. And he says that could drop, “given how last year’s late soybean crop did. But I also think we may find a few more soybean acres.” And he adds, “My pricing suggestion are the same as with corn, have pricing targets in place if the report is price positive, and consider waiting to price if the report is price negative.”

The futures market has again offered $10 for Nov beans, and MN marketing specialist Ed Usset reminds soybean growers that this is the third chance to sell $10 soybeans from the 2009 crop. He says, “We greeted the new year with prices above $10 for nearly a week. We enjoyed a second rally above the $10 mark in mid-May, an opportunity that stuck around for nearly 6 weeks. And now this week – back above the $10 mark. I’m a baseball fan and I can’t help but remind you that it’s three strikes and you’re out.”

The crop could expand says Iowa State’s Chad Hart, “The outlook indicates more seasonal weather will return in the fall. Currently, corn production is projected at over 12 bil. bu. and soybean production is targeted at nearly 3.3 bil. bu. But conditions have been improving over the summer, with the crop ratings both for the US exceeding last year.”

Hart says most of the long range forecasts point to a continuation of the relatively mild summer conditions, and “Given the improving crop conditions, there is significant anticipation that USDA will increase their yield projections in the August reports.” He says feed and ethanol demand is less than prior years, but export projections are high.”

Lower crop prices should spur a reversal in the weaker demand trend, according to Hart. He says the 25% decline in prices is providing buying opportunities for end users. While feed projections remain below 2008, the rate of decline has slowed for the livestock industry. And since the fall in ethanol prices has slowed, blending is more profitable. Hart adds that gasoline prices have climbed, but ethanol prices are stable. Read more.

Fibonacci numbers help identify sell signals in Dec corn says Iowa St. ag economist Stephen Johnson. He says between the June 8 high of $4.73 and the July 20 low of $3.15 there are important retracement points at $3.75, $3.94, and $4.13. Read his marketing letter.

Johnson says, “These different levels serve as good indicators of where the December 2009 corn chart may find technical resistance. Placing sell orders, buying puts or forward pricing when the market reaches these levels can help with market discipline.” He says the technical Fibonacci chart points can be used to show resistance and support levels.

Watch the weekly crop conditions, says Iowa St. meteorologist Elwynn Taylor to see if current corn crop conditions total above 50% for the good and excellent categories. Currently, it is at 68% for the 18 primary corn states. He says if the number remains above 50% at the end of August, there is a consistent record of yields above trend line.

Based on similar weather years Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen thinks the corn crop may be doing reasonably well at this point, although “the fat lady has not yet sung.”
1) Late planting and uneven stands are not good, but the crop has escaped heat stress.
2) Moderate temperatures are favorable for kernel set and kernel weight development.
3) The crop needs to avoid drought stress into September and a frost into October.

Regarding the killing frost potential, Nielsen says premature leaf death results in yield losses because photosynthesis stops, and while the plant may be able to shift some of its carbohydrates to the ears, yield potential will still be lost. If the stalk survives, frost at the dough stage will cut yield by 36%. Frost at the full dent stage will cut yield by 31%. And Nielsen says if frost occurs at the half milkline stage it will cut yield by 7%.

Soybean yields depend on flowers, but IL agronomist Vince Davis says yields could go in two directions because of the weather. Davis’ newsletter says he wants to be optimistic that yields will be good. Read more.
1) Early canopy closure (not this year) means a longer time for pod set and pod fill.
2) Cool July weather was less stressful and fewer flowers and pods were aborted.

The days of waterhemp may be numbered due to a new genetic identification process at the University of Illinois which can help researchers determine which herbicides may be effective on populations in fields that are showing resistance. The evolution of waterhemp genes has been unusually rapid and weed scientist Pat Tranel says taking a weed’s genetic fingerprints will help farm operators better control waterhemp.

If weeds are growing above the soybean canopy it may be too late for a shower of glyphosate because of the lateness of the growth stage of the beans. Labels allow glyphosate to be used throughout flowering which is the R2 stage. But the R3, which is too late, begins when there is a 3/16 in. pod showing on the uppermost stem nodes.

What is your weed attitude? Extension weed specialists around the Cornbelt surveyed farmers to determine if glyphosate resistance was becoming a problem on their farms.
1) Awareness of potential resistance ranged 75-88% depending on farm size.
2) No more than 30% believed glyphosate resistant weeds were a serious issue.
3) Less than 20% had experienced a resistance problem on their farm.
4) 43% -65% (depending on farm size) had taken action to minimize resistance.

If you bought SCN resistant seed beans, check your soybean roots for performance. That is the recommendation of IA plant pathologist Greg Tylka, who says look for SCN females on the roots, which are small, white, and round, and about the size of the period at the end of this sentence. If you have numerous females, he says the SCN strain should be tested. Learn how.

Your volunteer Bt corn from last year has a small amount of the Bt toxin, but just enough for your corn rootworms to potentially build up some resistance. That is the thought of Purdue entomologist Christian Krupke who says the volunteer Bt corn was emitting a sublethal dose, but had substantial root damage from corn rootworms.

Some OH entomologists are about to pull the trigger on spraying for soybean aphids based on some fields in the northeastern part of the state having nearly 100% infestation. They say populations are not very high, but all plants have aphid colonies. And they say since aphid colonies can double in size rapidly, spray thresholds may soon be reached.

Dry areas of Wisconsin are becoming stressed from spider mites, which may be near or at economic thresholds for soybeans. The WI Crop Manager newsletter tells farmers:
1) Drought stress pushes mites to soybean fields as alfalfa fields as they are being cut.
2) Drought stress improves the food quality of the soybean plant for spider mites.
3) Drought halts the pathogens that normally suppress spider mite populations.
4) Hot temperatures hasten mite reproduction faster than predators can keep up.

It is rejuvenation time for pastures and forage crops says OH agronomist Mark Sulc who suggests a soil test to dictate lime and fertilizer needs, and a firm seedbed with shallow planting. He says seedlings need 6 to 8 weeks of growth after emergence to have sufficient vigor to survive the winter. But don’t harvest any of it this year.

Meat markets are not passing on the savings to consumers like auto dealers are promoting the clunker discount says Purdue economist Chris Hurt. He says finished cattle prices are down 10%, but retailers have charged higher prices in the past 6 months, and not until June were they reflecting the lower wholesale prices that began in 2008.

Hurt says the cattle herd is slowly shrinking, and is down 4% over the past 3 years. And “help is on the way.” Read more.
1) Finished cattle prices rise toward late summer when the weather cools down.
2) Lower retail prices will encourage more consumption.
3) Slaughter rates will moderate with small supplies coming from feedlots this fall.
4) Competitive poultry and pork supplies will decline 3% in the last half of this year.
5) Domestic beef demand will increase as consumers sense a stronger economy.

The worst may be over says Hurt, but profits may be elusive until next spring. He’s looking for finished steers in the mid to high $80’s in late summer. Hurt believes calf and feeder cattle prices will be higher also, but with feed price uncertainty.

For 20 of the last 22 months, hog margins have been below breakeven prices according to calculations by Iowa St. economist John Lawrence. And the bad news is their projections are for 6 more months of red ink before variable costs will be covered and 3 additional months before breakeven prices will be reached. Read his newsletter.

Lawrence says domestic and export demand can be boosted by organizational initiatives, but producers determine supply, and the only reason supply has dropped 1.5% this year is due to fewer hogs coming from Canada. He says sow slaughter rates have decreased and “US producers appear to be pushing on the accelerator rather than the brake.” His newsletter strongly urges sow liquidation to avoid the loss of 50% more equity by 2010.

To help pork producers improve profitability Iowa St. economists have created a decision making tool to track hog finishing gross margins, based on 2010 futures prices. Find it here.

What is the outlook for the livestock producer? Ag economists from across the country gathered last week to compare notes. Livestock economist Dillon Feuz of Utah State summed up the consensus, saying, “The reality is that the dairy industry, swine industry, and cattle feeding sector of the beef industry have lost a tremendous amount of equity in the last year. Domestic demand and export demand probably are going to remain week for much of this year and maybe most of 2010. Uncertainty is not likely to be reduced either. Therefore, all of the factors that got us in the present condition are still with us. Without some fairly significant reductions in supply (number of sows, number of milk cows, number and weight of fed steers) the losses will continue and equity will continue to dissipate. We may be reaching a time when many lenders will cease to finance these struggling operations and they will be forced to liquidate.”

Based on the latest estimates, MO economist Glenn Grimes says sow slaughter remains low and he sees no sign the breeding herd is being reduced very much. “It now looks like it will require bankruptcy by a substantial number of producers to get the sow herd reduced enough to get back in a profitable situation for the average cost producer.”

Cornbelt farmers are invited to IL Agronomy Day on August 13 from 7 am to 12 noon. Details are here. Urbana, IL, field tours address:
1) Waterhemp, mechanical weed control, balancing P & K, spring N for wheat.
2) Sweet corn, soybean pathogens, tomato diseases, aerial fungicides for corn.
3) Switchgrass, biomass markets, biofuel crop pests, input price volatility.
4) Soybean aphids, corn nematodes, Japanese beetle injury, corn rootworm control.

Stu Ellis

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July 31, 2009

Cornbelt Update

14 days until the ACRE sign-up deadline and barely 1% of eligible farms have enrolled according to FSA. August 14 is the deadline for operators and owners to sign CCC-509 ACRE (Power of Attorney is accepted.) Production data will not be needed until July 15, 2010, and third party evidence will only have to be provided at that time if spot checked.

Farm operators and owners needing more information about the ACRE program can visit the farm gate website. Land Grant University economists and specialists detail the program and give their recommendations. Remember that any payment will not be made until Oct. 2010, if 2009 crops are eligible.

August 12 is the date for the August Crop Report, and IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says corn prices are still reflecting a large crop. He says the consensus of the market seems to be for a modest reduction of the acreage reported by the USDA in June. His newsletter is here.

The August Crop Report will be closely watched for its estimates of state average yields as many farmers make last minute decisions on enrolling their farms in ACRE. The report will also update the national average cash price, which is expected to increase the prospects to trigger state payments, despite the yield potential, because of the higher price levels of the past two years. Low yields in some states will also trigger a payment.

A large crop with a low price may also trigger crop revenue insurance payments, and especially for producers with low yields, says Good. He notes that sales of 2009 corn are not currently appealing, since prices are below crop revenue insurance guarantees.

Darrel Good says the July Cattle on Feed report indicated feedlot inventory was 5.3% smaller than last year, with liquidation in beef and dairy cows, and a 1.4% decline in the calf crop, which all point to a weak demand for feed corn. However, exports were larger than expected, and the USDA forecast of 1.8 bil. bu. is reachable by the end of August.

A weather or demand shock is what OH St. marketing specialist Matt Roberts is looking for to push corn prices higher, but he says don’t get greedy, “The big rallies that we’ve seen the past few years have been driven by competition for acres and input prices. Neither appears to be that significant going forward.” Read his latest newsletter here.

Matt Roberts says the wheat market still has not adjusted to the new CBOT delivery points designed to promote futures and cash convergence beginning in July. But he says that just did not happen, “I did not expect basis to return to historical levels, but I did expect that basis would tighten noticeably as we moved toward the July delivery.” And he says, “I’m not going to prognosticate what happens from here.”

Farm estates in the Cornbelt will have a 6.50% interest rate for special use valuation elections made on federal estate tax returns for decedents dying in the current calendar year. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says the IRS interest rate assignments ranged from 7.63% to 6.17% across the US divided along Farm Credit District lines.

Cool summers are on a four year cycle on the charts of OH St. meteorologist Jim Noel, who says this summer is even far cooler than 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992. (But stop there because 1988 was hot and dry.) He adds, “This cool year is more a function of the weather pattern combined with such features as coming out of a La Nina, decent soil moisture, longest sunspot minimum in nearly a century per NASA, and a persistent low (pressure area) just north of the Great Lakes in the upper atmosphere.”

Iowa and Nebraska are leading in crop development, but IA St. meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says July brought Iowa half or less of expected rainfall. He says crops have not been hurt because of cooler temperatures. Taylor says even with the coolness, there is no increased risk of early frost. He says there is no great temperature difference with the Yukon and when that has occurred previously frost even comes later than normal.

Are cool temperatures adverse for corn? “Probably not,” says OH St. agronomist Peter Thomison, who says corn yields best with moderate temperatures and adequate moisture. And he defines moderate as 80 to 86ºF, but higher if moisture is available, and night temperatures in the mid-60’s. He quotes IL research that cool night temperatures result in slower GDD accumulation which lengthens grain fill and increases dry matter.

The downside to cool temperatures is a longer time for corn to mature, and Thomison says consider that in estimating fuel costs for grain drying. He warns cool temperatures are also associated with some diseases, limited to specific genetics in some hybrids.

The cold winter and fewer GDD’s this summer have delayed feeding of bean leaf beetles in soybeans to the time that beans are beginning to bloom. IA St. entomologist Erin Hodgson says if they feed on beans during pod-fill, significant damage can result. Scout beans with a drop cloth or net, count the beetles per foot of row and repeat throughout the field. It only takes 6 beetles per row-foot to protect $8 beans at a cost of $12 per acre. Read more.

Japanese beetles have not been the widespread problem they have been in prior years, but producers with corn and soybean fields being damaged, can use a rescue treatment. Rescue treatments are justified if the Japanese beetles reach the economic injury thresholds for:
1) Corn: 3+ beetles per ear, silks clipped to less than1/2 inch, pollination less than 50%.
2) Beans: 30% defoliation prior to blooming, or 20% defoliation prior to pod-fill.

How were most farmers so lucky to escape the perennial onslaught of Japanese beetles? Purdue entomologists say the population is lower than most seasons and they suggest you thank the weather, since winter temperatures and spring rains diminished their numbers.

Soybean aphids have sought employment in Canada this year, with entomologists counting the largest work forces in Quebec and Ontario, but with some itinerants below the US border. WI entomologists suggest continued scouting to detect any rise in the aphid population densities. They urge farmers not to be tempted to tank mix an insecticide with either a soybean fungicide or with a second application of glyphosate.

August and September will show any damage you may have from Western Bean cutworms, but now is the time to scout for masses of purple eggs on corn leaves to determine if you need to prevent the larvae from entering developing corn ears. Read more.

If you are looking for good news, rejoice in the latest corn root ratings, which indicate root worm pressure seemed to be down this year. That is the initial report from several research stations in IL, and combined with low numbers of adults being caught in traps, IL entomologist Mike Gray says that suggests low corn rootworm pressure in 2010. But he says without your own data, plan on using Bt hybrids, insecticides, or both next year.

The low population of corn rootworms in IL was attributed to the larvae hatching in saturated soils, as well as higher use of Bt stacked hybrids. Gray also provides a theory about insecticide resistance.
1) Granules applied in 7 in. bands create an inter-row refuge preventing annual exposure.
2) Broadcast application allowed some rootworms to acquire resistance to insecticides.

If you have corn rootworm beetles, how many does it take to cause damage the following year? That is the question NE entomologists set out to answer, and they have created a guideline based on plant population versus the number of beetles. However, their research indicated different thresholds depending on whether you have continuous corn or rotate corn after beans. Read more.

Drought conditions have moved into MN & WI, and MN entomologists are urging farmers to beware of spider mite infestations in both soybeans and corn. They are seeing activity along field edges, and suggesting that a rescue treatment may be warranted. Read more.

What is the outlook for bean yields if the canopy is not fully closed, flowering is underway, July was the coolest on record, but there is adequate moisture? IL agronomist Vince Davis says it is too early to tell, but history indicates trend yields or better could still be attained. While planting date is a good indicator of yield expectation, “Let's keep hoping for a little more heat through August to maximize crop development.”

Davis at IL quotes KY researcher Chad Lee who says fungicides and fertilizers will not cause soybeans to grow taller, if that is your concern. He says beans were planted late, they are flowering late, and despite what your own “internal clock” says, soybeans do not have to be larger than they are, “Tall plants do not automatically equal high bean yields.” Lee says take the money you plan to spend on fertilizer and take a trip someplace warm.

To avoid your dilemma next year, Lee at KY says the best management practice would have been to plant in 7.5-inch rows. The narrow rows would have improved the chances of getting complete canopy closure by flowering. Foliar fertilizers and fungicides will not make up the difference in temperatures, planting date or row spacing.”

Have corn yields been hurt by the difficulties experienced this year in applying nitrogen? IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says the uneven stands and yellow leaves may be the result of different factors, not necessarily inadequate nitrogen. He says when water limits yields fewer plants are really needed. At that point high rates of N increase leaf area increasing photosynthesis and transpiration and accelerate the onset of drought. Subsequently, when water is short, more plants and more N both contribute to yield loss. Read more of his newsletter.

The weather was good for wheat in Ohio, where agronomist Jim Beuerlein of OH St. said some varieties reached 120 bu./A helped by a cool, moist spring. He suggests giving 2010 wheat a good start on record yields with improved management techniques:
1) Plant after the Hessian fly-safe date to avoid risk from barley yellow dwarf virus.
2) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre before planting.
3) Ensure the phosphorous level is above 25 ppm and soil pH is above 6.5.
4) Plant 18-25 seeds per row-foot for both 7.5 and 15 in. row spacings.
5) Plant at a seeding depth of 1.0 to 1.5 inches deep.
6) Select disease resistant varieties, since disease is the biggest yield drag on wheat.

If it is legal to plant your own wheat seed, Beuerlein says do a quality check on it:
1) Have it tested for its ability to germinate under stressful environment conditions.
2) Clean the grain to remove weed seed, diseased kernels, and foreign matter.
3) Treat the seed with appropriate fungicides to protect against seed & soil borne disease.

The Smithfield liquidation of 27,000 sows in TX and the Tyson liquidation of 20,000 sows in MO & AR will help, but will not be enough to solve the over production problem in the pork industry according to MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They say that is only 0.78% of the breeding herd, and it needs to drop 7-10% from June levels.

The H1N1 virus continues to plague the pork industry, keeping US pork exports well below the period prior to the outbreak of the ill-named “swine flu.” MO economist Glenn Grimes says May exports were down 36% from May 2008, and for the first 5 months of the year, exports were 17% below 2008 levels, but 34% above 2007 levels.

Cowboys are being squeezed more by feed prices than by cattle prices say Grimes and Plain, who look at large crop prospects, and say, “Even though corn and meal prices this next year are likely to be substantially below a year earlier, the odds do not favor going back to $2.00 corn and $180-200 soybean meal. Therefore, we have to reduce the cow herd more than we have so far to get production and cost back in line with cattle prices.”

Beef exports on the other hand were 2.6% higher than year ago levels for the first 5 months of the year. However, beef imports, as a percent of production, were 5% compared to 3.76% in the same months of 2008, according to Glenn Grimes.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

July 24, 2009

Cornbelt Update

USDA is rechecking its corn and sorghum acres in IL, IN, KY, MO, ND, OH, & PA to ensure the Aug 1 crop report is as accurate as possible. NASS will be asking farmers to update acreage to reflect any changes in planted acreage since the June Acreage report. Any changes the USDA makes will be factored into the report released on Aug. 12.

The recent $1.30 loss in corn and $2.20 loss in beans are due to large acreage, but also weakness in financial and energy markets, all of which outweighed prospects for larger exports and tight soybean stocks. That is the opinion of IL marketing specialist Darrel Good who says price and yield prospects will soon show if a low has been established.

Good says the market expects relatively large crops, but there is still room for yield and price uncertainty. Nov bean futures are 20¢ above revenue insurance guarantees, which allows some additional pricing, but Dec corn futures are well below those guarantees. Read more.

Darrel Good says if crop conditions remain as they are and there is no early frost or freeze, then IL weather models point to a nearly 162 bu. corn crop and a 44.7 bu. bean yield. Those weather models are based on the weekly crop condition report that has 71% of the corn crop and 65% of the bean crop in good to excellent condition.

The August crop report will replace USDA’s statistical models with actual field counts, says Mike Woolverton at KS State, and he says early trade guesses would put the crop at record high levels. The records are 160.4 bu. for 2004 corn and 43 bu. for 2005 beans.

But Woolverton is concerned about the weather. He says crops typically maturing in Sept. will not be ready until Oct., and currently the record low day and night temperatures in the Cornbelt are complicating the situation. He says it may take 125 days for 110 day corn to mature. Woolverton thinks the cold summer means frost will come early. Read his newsletter.

At Purdue, marketing specialist Chris Hurt believes the 25 mil. acres of beans planted after May will pull the national average yield down to 41.8 bu. compared to the 42.6 bu. yield projected so far by USDA. Hurt suggests the tight stocks will push August futures toward $11.50, and cash toward $12.00, but he’s quick to say it is risky to expect that.

Storage returns for beans will be positive into January, says Hurt, but not much beyond that because of the anticipation of the South American crop. So for farmers with limited storage, that suggests storing corn over soybeans, and he says an improving economy will help provide a more positive market after the fall harvest. Read more of his newsletter.

Store corn? That’s also the recommendation of MN specialist Ed Usset, who calculates the Dec ‘09 to Jul ‘10 carrying charge at 32¢ or 4.57¢ per month, which is the largest going back to 1990. He says that is four times larger than the interest costs incurred on storing corn, and the market is sending early signals to get ready to store corn at harvest. Read more of Ed’s July 16th blog.

What about ACRE payments? At this point, Purdue’s Chris Hurt says the national soybean price of $9.30 would not allow an IN payment to be triggered, but the futures market average price of $8.70 would trigger a soybean payment about $15 higher than conventional payments. Hurt says if your yields are above average that would tell you to stay out of ACRE. If they are below average, sign up by the August 14 deadline.

2009 could be a high payment year for ACRE say IL ag economists Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson, because projections of commodity prices are below benchmark prices. Based on history, an ACRE payment for corn would have been triggered in IL in 32% of years since 1977, but, “Because of higher price variability, it is likely that the payment percentage will be higher in the future than in the past,” say the economists. Read more.

An analysis of IL yields since 1977 found that ACRE payments would have been made:
1) For corn in 1977, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1997, 1998, 1999, & 2005.
2) For beans in 1982, 1984, 1998, 1999, & 2000.
3) For wheat in 1977, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1996, & 1998.

IA meteorologist Elwyn Taylor believes this season has a lot in common with 1992 and 2004. “Both summers were warm on the West Coast and cold in the Corn Belt. Both had record high corn yields in the Midwest. 2009, even with the shaky start, is set up to have a record high yield. Too early to call this a forecast, but it is worth watching,” he says.

July will be one of the coolest on record believes MO climatologist Pat Guinan. He says the first 22 days averaged 72.2ºF, tying the record with 1924 as the coolest in 121 years of weather records. Guinan says the northwesterly airflow brings cool and dry air intrusions into the Cornbelt. But he says, “July's below-normal temperatures in the region are not an indicator one way or another on trends in average global temperatures.”

Are cool temperatures good or bad for corn? Purdue’s Bob Nielsen says cooler temperatures are preferable to heat when it comes to pollination and grain fill, and GLS development will slow down. On the other hand, fewer heat units means slower corn development, which will further delay the crop that is already behind schedule. He also says cooler temperatures will cause silks to halt the elongation process and result in a mass of scrambled silks at the end of the husk interfering with kernel set. Read more.

“Short corn” is more a psychological issue for you than a production issue, since OH agronomist Peter Thomison says yields will not be adversely affected, unless the canopy allows more sun to reach the ground than the leaves which enhances weed presssure. He says short plants of one hybrid will produce the same as tall plants of the same hybrid.

SmartStaxCorn is the latest headline, following EPA and Canadian approval for the Monsanto and Dow AgroSciences product for next spring. Hybrids with that name will have four different toxins against rootworms, corn borers, and other winged insects as well as tolerance to glyphosate and glufosinate. However, the biggest change for anyone planting SmartStaxCorn will be the ability to reduce the 20% refuge to only 5%. The companies report they will have enough seed for 3-4 million acres for 2010.

Evaluate your corn crop before deciding whether to spend money on a fungicide, says IL specialist Carl Bradley, who says applications have increased in the past two years:
1) Fungal risk is increased if there is substantial corn residue left from the prior year.
2) Late planted corn is more at risk for some foliar diseases.
3) Hybrids with a “fair to poor” rating for GLS have a 6 bu. response to fungicides.
4) Hybrids with a “good to excellent” rating for GLS have a 4 bu. fungicide response.
5) Corn leaves that are wet longer in the day are more susceptible to foliar diseases.
6) Diseases that begin to appear before tassel development are not a good sign.

Scout corn for the appearance of disease on the third leaf below the ear and higher on the plant, says Bradley, then check the seed tags if the hybrid is susceptible to disease.
1) If moderately susceptible, consider a fungicide application if the disease is present.
2) If intermediately susceptible, consider a fungicide if conditions are favorable.
3) If resistant to disease, a fungicide is not recommended, but scout anyway.

High fungicide prices and low corn prices complicate the decision whether to apply a fungicide. IA State specialists say $26-$28 fungicide and $3.25 corn make a tough choice, but researchers “reported a mean yield response of 7.5 bu/acre when gray leaf spot disease severity on the ear leaf was greater than 5% at R5 to R6” growth stages. Read more.

Beware of other issues when you are making a decision on corn fungicide application:
1) Foliar disease pressure can result in stalk quality and standability issues at harvest.
2) If the weather dries up, foliar disease progression will slow or stop without rain.
3) Bacterial diseases are present and will not be controlled with a fungicide spray.
4) Corn with a fungicide will be wetter and more costly to dry at harvestime.

Shabby soybeans and potentially diminished yields can result from a zoo-full of defoliators. Consider a rescue treatment when 30% defoliation has occurred before blooming or when 20% defoliation occurs between bloom and pod filling, if you have:
1) Bean leaf beetles are hitting a second time over large areas of a field.
2) Blister beetles will strip foliage between veins in isolated areas of a field.
3) Grasshoppers focus their attention on areas near sod waterways and fence rows.
4) Green cloverworms may be decimated by diseases before they are problems.
5) Thistle caterpillars feed along roadsides and field edges.
6) Woolyworms come in two generations, primarily in drier years
7) Japanese beetles defoliate beans, but may not reduce yields.

The red alert flag is being hoisted by MN entomologists who are warning soybean growers about the potential for an explosion of soybean aphids in northwestern MN and northeastern ND. They expect population expansion with warmer temperatures and urge producers to begin scouting and only when threshold levels are reached.

Any soybean fungicide should be applied at the right time, and IA State specialist X.B. Yang says the critical time is the R3 growth stage, which is when soybeans begin to set pods. He says if you’ve had good results the past 4 years, chances are positive for this year also. In similar rainy years, over 50% of sprays yielded an economic return and over 70% of sprays resulted in a positive yield. But Yang also says fungicides will not control bacterial leaf blight, and R3 is too late to control white mold with fungicides.

With temperatures below 85ºF, your chances increase for white mold about the time soybeans begin blooming. Scout for wilting leaves, bleached stems, and a fuzzy mold on the plant. The soil-borne fungus can survive for years and appears when environmental conditions are perfect. IL specialist Carl Bradley says there are management options:
1) Some varieties have partial resistance, and those can be on your priority list.
2) Fields with perennial problems can be planted in wider rows and lower population.
3) Domark and Topsin M fungicides are available, but apply it at the flowering stage.
4) Since the fungus can be seed-borne also, avoid bin-run seed from other fields.
5) Contans WG is a commercially available parasite of the mold, which has had limited evaluation. Bradley says it is applied to the soil after harvest or before planting.

If your soybeans look sick, they may have a nutrient deficiency suggests IL specialist Fabian Fernandez in his newsletter. He says soil conditions this year may be magnifying nutrient deficiencies, such as:
1) N deficiency makes older leaves turn pale or yellowish-green.
2) K deficiency is observed as necrosis (death) of the edge of older leaves.
3) Fe deficiency is observed as yellow coloration between leaf veins.

Beans are growing slow because of cool temperatures, but weeds are growing fast because of lots of moisture; and IA weed specialist Bob Hartzler warns you that:
1) Label restrictions are based on growth stage, crop rotation, & harvest interval.
2) Only 2.2 lb. acid equivalent of glyphosate can be applied postemergence yearly.
3) There is a reduced ability of late season treatments to control the weeds.

Check the calendar and count backward from potential harvest to help determine what herbicide you can use on your soybeans. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager provides a list of herbicides with the minimum number of days from spray to harvest, and some have as many as 90 days minimum. Read the list.

IA is catching up with the rest of the Cornbelt. Weed specialist Mike Owen says his research has found, “that Iowa has populations of common waterhemp that are resistant to PPO inhibitor herbicides. We have also identified populations of giant ragweed that appear to have evolved resistance to glyphosate. At this time, we have not documented how widely spread these problems have become or the specific details about the alleged resistance. Research to better describe the weed resistance is underway.”

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:10 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

July 17, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Abundant corn supplies. Helped by a larger estimate of corn production and larger stocks of corn, the market is satisfied there will be ample supplies of corn to meet demand says IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good. He says the futures market expects an average price of $3.25 for new corn, compared to the latest USDA estimate of $3.35 to $4.15. Read more.

Abundant bean supplies. With more acreage, the market is expecting a 3.26 bil. bu. bean crop says Good, which has pushed the futures market projections for the new crop to just under $9 per bu. That compares to USDA’s $8.30 to $10.30 price range. He says old crop bean exports could still grow, pushing carryover to only 70 mil. bu. Good notes the market is not concerned and some rationing of the old crop may be required.

Abundant wheat supplies. With more acreage and a larger yield estimate, the new wheat crop seems to also have ample supplies. Good says the ending stocks should reach an 8 year high of 706 mil. bu. and good weather will bring further price weakness.

So what does that mean for marketing? Darrel Good says the low price of wheat, weak basis, and large futures carry suggests retaining some ownership in the new crop. Additionally, “December 2009 corn futures are well below the price guarantee for crop revenue products which discourages additional new crop sales. November 2009 soybean futures are about $.30 above the crop revenue insurance price guarantee.”

Late planted corn and beans are just getting out of the starting gate, in the words of Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton, who adds that normal first frost dates this year would stunt corn and soybean yields, especially in the Eastern Cornbelt where planting was delayed. Woolverton says, “Extremely tight ending stocks create the potential for the soybean price to explode in the last half of August.” Read more of his newsletter.

The July Supply-Demand report made your ACRE decision for you says Michigan State’s Jim Hilker. He says, “Most of the articles and programs you read and see are going at it backwards. What they should be doing is showing that the market makes the decision to signup, and your job is to figure out how to go about signing up correctly.” Read more of his newsletter.

In Hilker’s calculations, the futures market is predicting a $3.25 national average price, and his chart of low and average yields would result in a payment from the ACRE program. “Even if the state and your farm have an average yield, just the lower prices expected relative to the past two years will trigger ACRE payments of $68.48 per acre if prices do average $3.25 and you have a similar yield to the state yield. If your Olympic average ACRE yield is higher than 138, then you will have even higher payments.”

As a further predictor of prices, Hilker says the options market predicts a 55% chance that 2009-2010 prices will average below $3.25. “There is a 55% chance that to get $68 all you have to give up is $5-6 of direct payments. What I call the breakeven price is $3.65; this is the price where ACRE pays if we are below it and does not pay if we are above with average yields.” Hilker adds, “And $3.15 is at the 50-50 point; the market says there is a 50% chance that you will collect $82.28 or more if the national price is $3.15 or below. At around $2.95, about where new crop bids are, you are reaching maximum payments, and there is at this point a 40% chance that will happen.” Signup deadline is Aug. 14.

Hilker says the odds are even higher that wheat will be eligible for an ACRE payment compared to corn, but things can change. He says there is a 50-50 chance that beans will be eligible for an ACRE payment because current prices are just below the threshold.

Reports of spoiled corn are increasing as bins of 2008 corn are cleaned out. Some of the corn did not reach maturity when harvested and the issues are now resulting in closer grading of samples and increased discount schedules says IA State’s Charles Hurburgh.

Stored corn exceeding 15% moisture should be dried immediately, and moved if showing damage. If blended with #2 corn, Hurburgh said bad kernels can be detected in typical samples and closer scrutiny will be applied by poultry feeders and processors. He says it will take a year or more to move 2008 corn into the market limits of #2 corn.

Hurburgh says 2008 corn will be showing up in the market as 2009 corn is harvested, but he says it is better to move out the old stock and replace it with 2009 corn if you are waiting to price the 2008 crop. He says successful blending will be difficult to achieve because spoilage of the entire lot will quickly occur, creating problems for exporters.

A corn refresher is offered by IL crop specialist Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing for farmers whose vexing problems were addressed earlier this year by her colleagues:
1) If the environment retards corn growth and the plant is older than it appears, any spray application should be keyed on the most restrictive element of plant size or age.
2) If the environment has made corn plants appear to be nutrient deficient, remember that warmer and drier soils may enhance growth and plant appearances may improve.
3) If the weather has prevented either corn or bean planting, planting a cover crop is better than leaving a field fallow to enhance soil microbes and prepare for 2010 crops.

Soybean aphids are off to a slow start this year in the Cornbelt, but entomologists say there is still a long way to go in the growing season. In OH overall densities are low, but some fields are showing signs of infestations. In IA some fields are expected to reach economic thresholds for treatment within the week. Low densities are in IN, NE, & SD.

Corn rootworms are the focus of specialists at IL where roots are being examined for damage. Purdue specialists report low levels of injury, possibly due to the result of very wet soil conditions at the time of larval hatch this spring.

Western bean cutworms are being reported in larger numbers than previously in OH, along with increased numbers in IN. IL corn growers are being urged to begin scouting. If 8% of plants have an egg mass or young larvae, consider a rescue treatment.

Japanese beetles have been reported in various numbers in the Eastern Cornbelt and for the next several weeks, producers are encouraged to scout fields for silk clipping and defoliation of soybean leaves. Japanese beetles concentrate in border rows of both crops and rescue treatments applied to field margins may be sufficient in some cases.

Foliar corn disease and stalk rots could go hand in hand says IL crop specialist Carl Bradley, who says when the disease pressure is severe, the blighted leaves cannot produce enough sugars to fill the ear and then plant robs the stalk of nutrients and that allows other diseases to infect the stalk. He says foliar fungicides may help reduce potential stalk rot, but they will not directly control pathogens that attack corn stalk integrity. Read more of his newsletter.

Eyespot is becoming the fungus of the year in Iowa, because weather began cool and wet, and is a frequent problem in fields of continuous corn. The infected residue allows the fungal spores to move up the corn stalk in the new crop, with yield loss and stalk rot.

Gray leaf spot is become more prevalent in the Cornbelt this year, and much earlier than usual, giving it more time to create problems in corn fields. GLS likes warm and humid weather and can devastate yields if it spreads to leaves above the ear. IA State specialist Alison Robertson says the cornerstone of GLS and eyespot is using resistant seed. Also fungicides can help if applied to fields with disease pressure or hybrid susceptibility.

Dairymen participating in the CWT program will have tax consequences when their bids are accepted for sending their herd to slaughter. WI dairy specialist Phil Harris says there are both deductions and liabilities. Read more.
1) Producers paying the 10¢ per cwt assessment have a deductible expense and it should not be just netted out of milk income reported on Schedule F of IRS form 1040.
2) Slaughter prices received are expected to be less than the value of the cows as reported by USDA, so the first 90% of income is treated as income from the sale of the cows.
3) The final 10% received 12 months later should be treated as ordinary income subject to self employment tax, if it exceeds USDA’s agricultural prices value.

New USDA appointments include administrators of FSA and Risk Management agencies. Jonathan Coppess will be head of FSA, and comes from working on Senate agriculture issues, law school, and an Ohio farm. Bill Murphy will be RMA chief, following a three decade career in federal crop insurance program management.

New appointments in the Univ. of IL College of ACES include Interim Dean Bob Hauser, who replaces Bob Easter who was recently named Interim Provost. Hauser is replaced as Chair of the Ag Econ department by Paul Ellinger, whose appointment is permanent.

Stu Ellis

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July 10, 2009

Cornbelt Update--UPDATED

Report day. USDA’s July Supply-Demand Report raised production to 12.290 bil. bu. in correlation with the increased acreage from the June 30 report. The 355 mil. bu. increase will be felt in higher ending stocks which are projected at 1.550 bil. bu. USDA raised feed use by 50 mil. bu. but lowered food and industrial use by 35 mil. Some 55¢ was clipped from both ends of the national average price range, which is now estimated at $3.35 to $4.15 per bu. Read more.

Overall corn demand will be down, in part from lower demand for gasoline that will cut ethanol demand. USDA reported higher profit margins for ethanol producers, but lower use will help add 170 mil. bu. to carryover stocks. Corn exports were raised 50 mil. bu. to 1.950 bil. bu.

Increased soybean production will provide 3.260 bil. bu. for the coming marketing year, and with increased exports and crush, the carryover is projected at 250 mil. bu. The season average price for beans was cut 70¢ to a range of $8.30 to $10.30. Soybean exports are estimated at 1.275 bil. bu., up slightly from June because of increased demand. For the old crop, carryover was left at 110 mil. bu.

ACRE assistance is being provided from a variety of sources for farmers and landowners who are still a bit foggy about the details of the program and uncertain if it will be beneficial this year. The deadline for signing up for 2009 benefits is August 14.
1) Kansas State—Internet-based seminar scheduled for August 4 at 7 p.m.
2) University of Illinois—Internet-based ACRE presentation
3) Ohio State—series of slides, papers, and examples from economist Carl Zulauf.
4) USDA—series of Internet files and fact sheets on details of the ACRE program.
5) Iowa State—ACRE fact sheet and decision aid that estimates payments.
6) Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) ACRE decision aid.
7) University of Minnesota--ACRE Fact sheet and worksheet decision aid.

Prepayment for inputs used to be a tool for adjusting expenses on your IRS Schedule F, but IL ag lawyer Jerry Quick says it is now becoming a requirement to get access to inputs and guarantee volume needed. Speaking to a farmer conference, Quick warned in the case of bankruptcy of the input supplier, a farmer who has submitted a prepayment would be an unsecured creditor. He said ensure that you have good documentation about the purpose of the prepayment, amount of the input being purchased, and any delivery arrangements, and if the product was found in a warehouse, access might be easier.

With current production costs, you may find yourself making an appointment with a lender well before you ever anticipated. If so, prepare yourself ahead of time. Economist Danny Klinefelter at Texas A & M suggests being prepared to answer these questions:
1) How much money will you need, not just now, but over time?
2) What will the money be used for, and lifestyle or old debt, are not good answers.
3) How will your overall financial position be affected by the proceeds of the loan?
4) What collateral will be used to secure the loan and what will its value be over time?
5) How will alternative outcomes affect your ability to repay the loan as expected?
6) What risk management measures will you implement to protect the loan?

El Nino trade winds have stopped and reversed in the western Pacific, slowing development of that weather maker. IA State climatologist Elwynn Taylor says it is uncertain if the pattern will increase, and he is calling it neutral through August. Taylor says that means there is a 60% chance of drier than usual weather through September and that would not be bad if the temperature remains below the trend line.

Elwynn Taylor says the Cornbelt is generally caught between two frontal systems that have cut off any flow of weather from the Gulf of Mexico, and that leads him to predict only a 20% chance of having to treat for Asian soybean rust. Taylor notes the Drought Monitor shows drought is beginning in MN & WI, but should not spread further.

Wet and cloudy weather give a mixed message to a corn plant says IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger. Read more.
1) Higher kernel numbers result from normal to above-normal rainfall in July.
2) Less photosynthesis and sugars cut the processes of pollination and kernel set.
3) Wetness also can encourage leaf disease development.

Vandals did not use an old ear notcher for hogs to decorate your corn leaves, says Purdue corn specialist Bob Nielsen. But he says the curious notches on some corn leaves seem to be linked by genetics more than anything else. The notches occurred while leaves were growing about the V7 stage, and occurred because of rapid growth, not vandals or insects. The leaves apparently were stuck in the plant and damaged on rapid emergence.

Stressed corn—from lack of moisture—will drop yield after 4 days of stress:
1) 5-10% yield drop at the 12-14 leaf stage when the plant begins to flower.
2) 10-25% yield drop during the period of tassel emergence.
3) 40-50% yield drop during silk emergence when ear is trying to grow rapidly.

Japanese beetles have invaded many fields, defoliating bean leaves and destroying corn tassels and silks. Read more.
1) Spray when defoliation hits 30% before bloom and 20% between bloom and pod fill.
2) Spray when beetles reach 3+ per ear and begin to clip silks during pollination.

Corn rootworm larvae may have been loafing if the analysis by Purdue specialists is correct, since they have registered less root feeding and damage than was expected. They say larval populations are down, for one thing. But they also say the larvae are at peak growth currently, and could be eating more, which will show up later as lodged corn.

Corn rootworm adults are beginning to emerge, which means root feeding is coming to an end, but silk clipping and egg laying will just begin. IL entomologists say rescue treatments are warranted if there are 5+ adults per plant and pollination is incomplete.

The wide variation in corn maturity will keep the corn rootworm beetles well fed, believe the Purdue entomologists. The early beetles only had leaves to feed on and will cause no damage. But areas with large populations will see the later planted fields suffering the most damage from silk clipping, and should be regularly scouted.

Are you applying a foliar fungicide on corn? Extensive research in the Cornbelt has occurred along with increasing applications by farmers, with no definitive data that says either do it or don’t do it. IL specialist Carl Bradley says, “The bottom line is that when disease pressure is high enough to reduce yields, most of the fungicide products available for corn will do a good job of protecting against diseases and yield losses.” Read a summary of the research.

Also weighing in on the fungicide issue are Iowa researchers who warn about potential problems with soybeans that follow corn, which has been treated with a foliar fungicide. They report that corn residue bearing the fungicide takes longer to break down, which can be detrimental to the planting of no-till soybeans the following year.

A cadre of specialists from Iowa State is casting doubt on the benefits of combining insecticide and fungicide, which is a service being offered by some crop protection suppliers. Their complaint is that one of the two may not be needed, leading to a waste of money, or in the case of insecticide, destruction of beneficial insects that eat aphids.

Crazytop develops were soils have been flooded after planting and before the 5-leaf stage, and is a disease caused by a bacteria. Iowa State plant pathologists suggest destroying the plants by hand and reducing the buildup of the bacteria in the field.

Dry regions of the Cornbelt may want to scout for two spotted spider mites in soybean fields. OH agronomists are warning that soybeans under moisture stress can be further damaged by mites, unless fields are scouted, and sprayed with rescue insecticides.

Soybean aphids are scattered sporadically around the Cornbelt with some heavy pockets and nearly unseen in other areas. However, IL entomologist Mike Gray says despite low densities in spots, populations can increase rapidly in the absence of natural enemies. So when scouting for aphids, tally the lady beetles and lacewings in your fields also.

Soybean diseases are showing up in scouting, says MO agronomist Laura Sweets.
1) Fusarium: lower leaves yellowing, stunting, main tap root tends to rot away.
2) Rhizoctonia: lower leaves yellowing, stunting, poor root development.
3) Phytophthora: plant off color, wilted, dark brown discoloration on main stem.
4) Bacterial blight: hail damage, small black lesions with light green halo.
5) SDS: leaves in upper to mid canopy have yellow irregular interveinal blotches.
6) Downy mildew: upper leaf bright yellow, lower leaf has downy mildew fungus.

Grain bin moisture should be regularly monitored for good insect control. It may take a week or more of aeration to move a moisture layer through and out of the grain mass, depending on the volume of air moved, the bin size, and the temperature of the air.

Your stored grain may be teeming with life, particularly Indian meal moth in the top 12 in. of the bin if you discover moist, sour smelling grain with thick webbing. If that describes your bin, remove that grain and treat the bin with an insecticide, including the use of pest strips from the ceiling. If you have other vermin, then either use the grain for feed or fumigate it. That may require a professional who applies poisonous gases.

Sprayer calibration should include careful selection of droplet size to achieve accurate, safe, and efficient application of crop protectants. KS ag engineer Bob Wolf says the droplet size created by a nozzle becomes very important when it comes to coverage or protecting nearby areas from the spray. He says nozzle makers are adding droplet size charts. Read more.

Internet innovation at Purdue will be assisting pesticide applicators more easily find problem areas for inadvertent spray drift. A new website www.driftwatch.org can be checked by IN applicators for sensitive sites, such as beehives, certified organic fields, fruits, fish farms, grapes, floriculture or greenhouse production, organic livestock, nursery crops, pumpkins and melons, and tomatoes and vegetables. Sensitive fields or habitats can be located on the Web site by entering an address, town or ZIP code.

Initial pork profitability may come more from lower feed costs than from higher market prices says Purdue’s Chris Hurt. That is because corn and soybean meal prices are dropping faster than production numbers, which are keeping markets depressed. Although farrowing intentions are down 3% this summer and 2% this fall, they are being offset by increased litter size and higher marketing weights. Read his newsletter.

Chris Hurt doubts there will be much reduction in the pork supply, since sows that are culled are the least productive and with lower feed prices in coming months, higher weights will be put on at a lower cost per pound. He is expecting production to drop only 1% over the coming year, which will keep prices depressed for the balance of 2009.

With lower costs of corn, Hurt calculates production costs about $48 per live cwt for the summer and possibly down to $46 for the fall quarter. He’s projecting 2010 production costs to be in the same neighborhood. Hog prices are expected to average in the upper $40’s for the rest of the year, slowly moving into the $50’s by summer of 2010. Hurt says that means $5-7 losses per head this year, and black ink possibly in late winter.

Livestock producers, who lost livestock due to adverse weather, can apply for USDA benefits beginning July 13. Livestock lost as far back as calendar year 2008 will be eligible for benefits if applications are submitted by Sept. 13. Livestock lost during 2009 will also be eligible for indemnification benefits if the claim is filed by Jan. 30, 2010. Contact FSA offices for details and ask about the Livestock Indemnity Program.

Grandpa told you to listen to the corn grow, and this was a good year to not only hear, but also see it grow. KY corn researchers put a tape measure on a corn plant beginning June 3 and ending July 4. It grew between 1.4 and 5.0 in. per day, and grew an average of 10% of its height each day during the V6 stage. Leaves grew 2.5 to 4.0 in. per day, which the researchers calculated to be at a speed of 2.5 to 3.8 millimeters per hour.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 2:08 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

July 3, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Mark down these USDA estimates for comparison later in the year. These statistics are the essence of the Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports from June 30:
1) 2009 corn acreage is 87.035 mil. with harvested acreage projected to be 80.107 mil.
2) 2009 soybean acreage is 77.483 mil. with 76.547 estimated for harvest.
3) Trend line corn yield is 153.4 bu. and trend line soybean yield is 42.6 bu.
4) On June 1, corn stocks were 4.266 bil. bu. and soybean stocks were 597 mil. bu.

IL ag economist Darrel Good says, “The June USDA reports point to a comfortable supply of corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2009-10 marketing year. The focus in the corn and soybean markets will now turn to summer weather and yield prospects.” Read his newsletter.

Corn yield prospects are improving in IL, IN, & IA say IL economists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin and meteorologist Mike Tannura. Their yield model uses the amount of acres listed good to excellent and depending on various scenarios, they project the national corn yield between 133.3 and 170.2 bu, with a 154.1 bu. average for average weather. Read more.
1) IL corn yield ranges from 138.2 to 172.1 bu. ranging from poor to good weather.
2) IN corn yield ranges from 137.1 to 166.2 bu. ranging from poor to good weather.
3) IA corn yield ranges from 157.1 to 187.0 bu. ranging from poor to good weather.

Early prospects for soybean yields in IL, IN, & IA are difficult to project because of the lateness of planting says the IL group. Their calculations show soybean yields may be:
1) Below trendline in IL, but slightly above the 46.2 bu. three year average.
2) Near trendline in IN, and about the three year average yield of 47 bu.
3) Above trendline in IA, as well as above three year average yield of 49.5 bu.
4) They project a 42.2 bu. national yield on 76.6 mil. acres producing 3.231 bil. bu.
Read more.

Weather will play a major role in the markets says Chad Hart at IA State, given delays in crop development. He adds, “Any weather stress will translate into crop stress quickly and a rebound in crop prices…some have pointed out the similarities to 1983 and the potential for a recovery of La Nina, raising the possibility of a late summer drought.” Read more.

The wheat market fell along with corn and beans following the release of the acreage report because the NASS spring wheat estimate was 675,000 acres more than expected, says Mike Woolverton of KS State. But he says crop development is behind average and only 15% of the crop is headed out, compared to the typical 40% at this time of year.

The 11th Commandment for corn is, “Thou shall not hold unpriced grain in the bin after July 1,” says MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. “Unlike soybeans, your basis risk on unpriced corn held in storage is minimal – the spot market for corn and for new crop delivery are both trading at or near 55 cents under. Your risk in old crop unpriced corn is in the futures price. On 6/26, the Dec’09 corn contract closed at $4.04 per bushel. Since 1990, the December corn contract has traded lower in 2 of 3 years from the first week of July to the second week of October. Even with minimal basis risk, I’m paying attention to the 11th Commandment.” Read more of Ed Usset.

Usset also applies the 11th Commandment to soybeans, and says “The stocks situation in soybeans is tight, and the tightness is reflected in an inverted futures market. The old crop Jul’09 contract is trading at a $2 premium to the new crop Nov’09 contract. The nearby soybean basis in Southern Minnesota is about 55 cents under the Jul’09 contract – or $1.50 over the Nov’09 contract. In about 3 months, when soybean harvest is in full swing, the nearby basis will be about 50 cents under the Nov’09 contract.”

Biotech seed continued its growth into US planters. USDA reported stacked gene varieties comprised 46% of all corn, up from 40% last year. Single genes Bt corn remained at 17%, and herbicide resistant single gene corn declined in market share from 23% last year to 22%. All biotech varieties claim 85% of the US corn acreage, up from 80% for the 2008 corn crop. Herbicide resistant beans make up 91% of the crop.

Hog supplies are starting to decline, says IA State livestock economist Shane Ellis in his analysis of this week’s Hogs and Pigs Report. He says sow inventories are the second lowest on record and the breeding herd is down 2.7% from last June. Third quarter farrowing intentions are down more than 3%, and fourth quarter will drop over 2%. Total pig supplies have not dropped as much because litter sizes are 2.5% higher.

Hopes for improvement in the pork market have been dampened by the H1N1 virus, along with recession-weakened exports. Ellis says, “Eight months ago, there were opportunities to hedge a hog-to-corn margin that would have put a hog producer in the black, but such opportunities do not appear to be available in the near future.” Read more in this newsletter.

Although hog numbers may be declining, weights are still up according to MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes. He says, “Over the last 6 weeks, barrow and gilt carcass weights have averaged 2% higher than a year earlier. Hog slaughter in the second half of 2009 is expected to be down 3% or so. Due largely to fewer Canadian hogs coming south, the June 1 inventory of market hogs weighing less than 60 pounds was down 2.4% even though the March-May pig crop was only down 0.3%.”

Farm diesel fuel prices are 42% under 2008 price levels, according to KS State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter, who tracks fuel prices on the NYMEX Exchange. He says August should be 36% under last year and September about 31% lower. Harvest time prices may approach 2008 levels, only because that was the time oil prices dropped.

Farm operators will be pinched between low commodity revenue and high cash rental rates unless yields or prices or both rise before harvest, says MN farm business specialist David Bau. He says breakeven prices for 165 bushel corn and 48 bushel soybeans are not available, and he is strongly recommending a switch to flexible rental agreements. Read more.

Flexible rent agreements call for a base rent which could be keyed to a variety of indexes. And Bau says, “If you complete a flexible rental agreement with a base cash rent with added payments it will be considered a cash rental agreement with Farm Service Agency in the latest farm bill. But without this base rent you will be share cropping with your landlord who will deserve a portion of the government program payments.”

Many landowners have used the 1031 tax code provision for buying and selling farms and other property, and the middleman which temporarily holds the property in the like-kind exchange is important since he insulates against capital gains taxes. But a recent bankruptcy of a qualified intermediary threw 450 investors and their $420 million into a line of unsecured creditors, since their 1031 documents did not specify “escrow” account. Protect your investment and read more.

Despite the recession, sales of organic certified foods grew nearly 16% last year, with nearly one-third of families spending more on organic food this year compared to 2008. IL ag law specialist Bryan Endres believes the organic industry is poised to flourish based on US-Canadian agreements on June 17 allowing joint certification in each country, which will also allow products to more easily enter the European Union market.

Ponds, which held excess water, may cause disappointing yields for many farmers, who should take the opportunity to mark the pond and seek NRCS help in designing a good drainage system. First, ensure the pond is not going to be determined as a wetland, which will allow drainage work to proceed. IL Natural Resources Specialist Bob Frazee says a good system will drop the water table to 12 in. below the surface in 24 hours.

Soybean aphids have made it all the way to Nebraska where soybean farmers are being urged to scout because of recent optimum temperatures of 70’s to the mid 80’s. NE bug experts say soybeans are more vulnerable to aphids during early reproductive stages.

So how do you fight aphids? A step by step guide.
1) Scout 1-2 times per week, at first checking the tops of 20-30 plants, then downward.
2) During flower and podset, the economic threshold is 250 aphids on 80%+ of plants.
3) Check for natural enemies such as lady beetles which eat aphids voraciously.
4) If the majority of aphids have wings, they may soon leave the field.
5) A honeydew or sooty mold covering of beans means optimum treatment time is past.
6) If a field is treated, leave an untreated test strip as a refuge for beneficial insects.
7) For good treatment coverage, use high water volume (5 gal/A) and high pressure.
8) Pyrethroids have a long residual time, but chlorpyrifos fumes up under the canopy.
9) Alert nearby beekeepers if you spray aphids while soybeans are flowering.
10) Do not add an insecticide to glyphosate just to save a trip through the field.
11) If aphid populations are peaking along with threats of soybean rust, then a tank mix of a fungicide and an insecticide can be effective since both need high water pressure.

Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer is issuing an alert for Indiana farmers to beware of western bean cutworms in cornfields beginning in the next week. Adults are laying eggs, and when they hatch larvae enter the whorl of the corn plant then make their way to the ear and continue eating. Mold will typically form on the corn ear when they leave. Obermeyer says check 20 plants for egg masses and spray if 5-8% are infested. Learn more.

NE may have planted 600,000 more corn acres, but there are increasing fungal problems being reported there. NE agronomists are reporting increased cases of Goss’s bacterial wilt and say farmers “are at increased risk this year because of the abundance of bacterial inoculum that is expected to have overwintered from recent disease outbreaks.” They say rescue treatments for that and several other fungal problems are not available. Read more in the current issue of NE Cropwatch.

Do you use glyphosate or glyphosate? There are dozens of brands and generic herbicides that are glyphosate, and NE weed specialist Stevan Knezevic says they provided more than 90% weed control regardless of the rate, brand name or cost. But he says your challenge is the select the appropriate rate for your weeds, and avoid using it at the highest possible rate. Comparison shop, based on cost per amount of acid equivalent.

Foliar fertilizer has not worked in the past says IA State agronomist John Sawyer, who notes increased interest in applying nitrogen to corn leaves since soil applications have been stymied by the weather and rapid corn growth. He says corn leaves cannot handle 200 lbs of nitrogen per acre, nor substantial applications of phosphorus or potash either.

Foliar fertilizer has not been effective on soybeans either says Sawyer at IA State, when tried both early and late. In fact, leaf burn has diminished yield when used later in the growing season. Early season foliar application increased yields in 15% of trials, by an average of 1 bu. per acre. The most consistent results were from 3-18-18 at 3 gal/A.

Let your voice be heard if the White House “Rural Tour” rolls nearby seeking input from rural Americans about a variety of issues affecting farm families. The rural listening tour began July 1 in Wattsburg, PA with a discussion on rural broadband. Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack will be joined by other cabinet officers familiar with the issues.
1) July 16 at LaCrosse, WI to discuss rural economic development.
2) July 18 at Ringgold, VA to discuss new energy economy & related issues.
3) July 20 at St. John’s Parish, LA to discuss rural healthcare.
4) Aug. 12 at Bethel, AK to discuss rural infrastructure, climate, new energy.
5) Aug. 16 at Zanesville, OH to discuss green jobs and renewable energy.
6) Aug. 17 at Hamlet, NC to discuss rural education.
7) Sept. 28 at Scottsbluff, NE to discuss production agriculture
8) Sept. 30 at Las Cruces, NM to discuss rural infrastructure.
Details are sketchy, but read more.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:19 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

June 26, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Buckle your seatbelt and mark your calendar for June 30 when USDA will release its best estimation of how many acres of corn and soybeans have been really planted. But in the words of Illinois Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, “The June estimates this year may contain more than the usual amount of producer intentions since considerable unplanted acreage still remains in the wettest areas of the eastern Cornbelt.”

Darrel Good says the USDA estimation in past years has changed over time. “For corn, actual planted acreage in the previous 5 years has varied by as little as 40,000 acres to as much as 1.35 mil. acres from the June estimate. For soybeans the difference has ranged from 400,000 to 1.185 mil. acres.” The June 30 report will be released at 7:30 am CDT.

Purdue economist Chris Hurt is concerned about a large loss of corn acres in the eastern Cornbelt. He says 1.5 mil. unplanted acres and a 152 bu. yield provide only 11.6 bil. bu. of corn and that would push Aug. 2010 stocks down to 800 mil. bu. Hurt says that scenario would put Dec futures in the range of $4.60 to $4.80 per bu.

Corn demand remains an uncertainty to Hurt who notes large financial losses in pork and dairy have trimmed herds. He says ethanol demand should increase, not only with the higher target from fuel mandate, but EPA raising the ethanol content above 10%. Read more.

$14 soybeans are still a possibility, believes Purdue’s Chris Hurt. He says the current carryover on Aug. 31 will be a 15 day supply, and new beans will not be yet available. He also says only 7 mil. more bu. have to be sold to overseas buyers in the next 11 weeks to meet USDA’s export projections. Hurt is anticipating beans will retest the $13 high, and if reached, he says $14 becomes more likely. The triggers for such a move include the June 30 stocks report, export sales, and late beans aggravated by summer weather. Read more.

What is your soybean pricing strategy? Hurt says one sales point is if July futures retest $13, then any weather concerns. But for an overall strategy “one might consider pricing more beans in the early part of the marketing year because South American acreage will rise and a return to normal yields there could result in lower priced beans in the last-half of the marketing year from March to September 2009.”

Also on Tuesday, USDA will be issuing its Quarterly Grain Stocks report for the third quarter of the year. Darrel Good’s numbers point to USDA overestimating feed use and underestimating processing use, but total corn use appearing reasonable. He also says the soybean crush might be underestimated and stocks could be smaller than expected. Read his newsletter.

The ACRE sign-up deadline is Aug. 14 and Purdue’s Chris Hurt believes the odds now favor positive returns to elect ACRE. He says there is still some time to make that evaluation as USDA will release its estimates on 2009 state yields and US average price on Aug. 12. Hurt says both of those forecasts are important in the formula to determine whether ACRE payments will be made for the 2009 corn crop.

Corn is growing loudly with the help of ample moisture and heat across the Cornbelt, and in some cases, it is growing faster than herbicides can be applied, which could turn out to be a problem. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says atrazine should not be applied to corn over 12” and glyphosate to corn over 30” tall. Hager says other post-emergent herbicide labels have maturity or corn height restrictions to protect against injury to the corn. Find those here.

Corn lesson #1. After July 1 average summer temperatures will provide 1,900 growing degree days across the northern Cornbelt, 2,100 GDD across the central Cornbelt, and 2,450 GDD across the southern Cornbelt says IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger. Read his latest corn newsletter.

Corn lesson #2. Daytime temperatures have been in the 90ºF range, but remember corn is a tropical plant and its photosynthetic rate will remain steady as long as there is enough water. The photosynthetic rate will not taper off until the temperature approaches 100 ºF.

Corn lesson #3. Heat and moisture have contributed to the corn growth rate, and rapid stem growth is putting out leaves quicker than the typical 50 GDD rate implies. Late planted corn may end up with typical height, but likely smaller stalk diameters.

Corn lesson #4. Current corn growth rates point to lower plant dry weight, lighter weight leaves and perhaps less surface area, and perhaps one to two fewer leaves. That means an incomplete canopy during and after pollination, and possibly lower yields.

Corn lesson #5. A good canopy color in high temperatures means a good N supply, with good root development. Normal temperatures, sufficient sunlight, and a continuation of a good green color indicate good leaf function going into the pollination period.

Hail can make corn look bad, but the serious damage occurs after the 6-leaf stage when the growing point is up and out of the ground, says Roger Elmore at Iowa State, who adds that hail adjusters use different growth stages than corn researchers. Elmore says the V6 or 6 leaf stage is equivalent to the 7 leaf stage used by the hail industry.

Patience is needed in letting corn recover from hail, and it takes 3-5 days after a hail storm to obtain an accurate damage appraisal. Cut the corn plant stem lengthwise and if it has a healthy growing point it will survive. Elmore says a reduction in leaf area less than 50% will not reduce yield if the damage occurs before the V13 stage of growth. Read more.

What if your nitrogen applicator is shorter than your corn? With rapid growth, many cornfields may be beyond conventional application. IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says the best application time is prior to the V8 stage because that begins the heaviest N uptake by the corn plant. Read more.

Nitrogen is best sidedressed by injection or dribbling to avoid volatilization and prevent foliar damage. Urea needs rain in 3-4 days to avoid loss. Dry formulations can be broadcast over the top, but Fernandez says the plant will display small lesions where the N has burned the tissue in the whorl or on leaves, but rarely results in any yield reduction.

Are foliar fungicides of value if there is no evidence of disease? WI researchers say in the trials where disease severity has been at least 5% on the ear leaf, the response has been higher; but they say problems are usually less than 5%. With fungicides and applicator costs about $25-30/A and the lack of consistent research results from using foliar fungicides, foliar fungicides should not be used on corn unless the hybrid was susceptible. Read the research.

If your soils are wet, phytophthora spores may be swimming through your soil to reach soybean plants. That means phytophthora may be more common this year in fields where soybeans do not have resistance to the root and stem rot fungus. IL plant pathologist Carl Bradley says there is no rescue treatment, but be sure to select resistant seed next year:
1) Race resistance prevents outbreaks, but only to the phytophthora races in your field.
2) Field tolerance defends against all races, but does not provide complete control.
3) Mefenoxam and metalaxyl fungicides will provide partial growing season control.

Corn rootworm larvae should be feasting lavishly on corn that was either non transgenic, or untreated with insecticides. But Purdue entomologists also say that some insecticide efficacy is in question. They recommend digging rootballs, break through the soil and look for quarter to half inch long slender larvae, along with root pruning. They say that two larvae per plant signals the need for a rescue cultivation application.

A rescue cultivation application directs the insecticide toward the base of the plant and mounds up the soil around the plant to incorporate the insecticide and promote the establishment of brace roots, since the corn plant’s standability may be compromised. They say application of an insecticide atop the soil in a no-till field will not be of value unless it is watered in by irrigation or a rain of one-half inch or more.

If you are planting single crop soybeans by the double-crop soybean calendar, IL agronomist Vince Davis recommends finding the field with the best planting conditions.
1) Use a full to mid-season variety, since heat and night length will promote flowering.
2) Plant in 7-10 in. rows with a no-till drill to get the highest yields when planted late.
3) Plant at a rate that will target a final stand of 150,000 to 200,000 plants per acre.
4) Schedule timely rains, and hold off any killing frost until as late as possible.

PI567102B. Remember that genetic code number because it may soon be a key to your survival from Asian soybean rust. Soybean researchers report the genes came from a Paraguayan soybean variety that had resistance to soybean rust in the US research labs. They have also identified several soybean cultivars that are “less rusting” and “slow rusting” which may also work their way into commercial soybean varieties. Read more.

Avoiding problems with spray drift may boil down to a trio of precautions:
1) Spray drift increases by 700% 90 ft. downwind when wind speeds double.
2) Spray drift increases 350% 90 ft. downwind when the boom is raised from 18 to 36 in.
3) When the distance downwind is doubled, spray drift decreases five-fold.

File away for future reference a report from an Ohio State University entomologist that lady beetle populations are declining, with some varieties considered rare. The species diminishing do not include the Asian multi-colored lady beetles that are voracious predators of soybean aphids. However, if one specie goes down, what about the others?

Acidic spots can develop in fields with otherwise good pH readings because of issues with the underlying subsoil. Plants growing in spots with a low pH might indicate they were low in phosphorus and magnesium, but high in iron and aluminum. Soils with a pH under 5.5 make aluminum and manganese more available, which become toxic to root systems, and that prevents phosphorus uptake by the plant. Microbial activity is reduced and that causes nitrogen issues. It can all be solved with strategic lime applications.

The June Hogs & Pigs Report to be released later today must show massive cutbacks to provide any financial relief says Michigan St. economist Jim Hilker, “The USDA showed another 1.8% drop in pork production in 2010, I suspect the cut will be larger, but we might not see it until the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. The June numbers were collected around June 1, and we have seen a $10.00 drop /cwt since then.”

Hurting the price of pork is the reduction in exports, say MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They say April exports were 21% below April of 2008, and exports were down 11% for the first 4 months of the year compared last year. Exports still contribute $32.51 to the value of every hog slaughtered, even though that is less than in 2008.

Grimes and Plain say don’t blame demand for low pork prices. May hog slaughter was the same as May of 2008, but weight has added 2% to the supply of pork, “When one considers we have had seven to eight percent more pork recently this year domestically than last year, it indicates our problem as to prices has been supply and not demand.”

Employee turnover costs $2,000 when someone is replaced and a 25% turnover rate is not out of the question for farming operations. But there are ways to reduce that, offered by Ohio St.
1) Take time to hire better qualified employees, you get what you pay for.
2) Establish a training protocol for news employees, manuals and job descriptions.
3) Hold regular meetings to discuss farm issues, goals, and operational strategies.
4) Several farmers could share one or more employees or seasonal labor.
5) Conduct exit interviews to determine why employees seek work elsewhere.

Create incentive and reward programs that cost very little, but show appreciation to employees. A basic “thanks” for a job well done goes a long ways. So do: home cooked meals, extra time off, use of fuel or farm commodities, and training seminars. Staff members will also appreciate being asked for their advice about equipment, safety, personnel conflicts, and unreasonable farm policies or work rules.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:31 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

June 19, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Soybean demand remains strong and there are indications that price rationing has been occurring, says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good. In his weekly newsletter, Good says July futures seem to have peaked at $12.90, and have softened along with the basis, which leads him to believe sufficient rationing of old crop soybeans has occurred. Read his newsletter.

Darrel Good says export business is above the pace to reach the 1.25 bil. bu. that USDA has projected for the year. Additionally, the domestic crush is slightly stronger than expected. USDA recently forecast a 110 mil. bu. carryout at the end of the marketing year in August, which is a 3.6% stocks-to-use ratio, however, Good believes that despite the high demand, stocks will probably not drop below the typical pipeline supply.

The corn market has also weakened slightly, but basis levels have remained steady, and the market is apparently comfortable that the new crop will provide sufficient supplies for the 2010 marketing year. Darrel Good believes the recent decline in prices may be linked to financial and other outside markets. However, he says, “All of the ingredients for volatile corn and soybean prices appear to be in place,” creating market uncertainty.

Jim Hilker at Mich. State expects harvest prices around $4, given the USDA’s current supply-demand projections and $65-70/barrel of oil. “At $4.25 and normal state and your farm yields we would not sign up for ACRE, but could prices be $3.50, the August report will let us know, so let's be ready.” Read more.

Hilker’s recommendation for the ACRE farm program is to fill out the paperwork now, wait for the August 12 Crop Report to indicate the potential supply and fall prices, then file paperwork by the August 14 deadline. “You will have a good idea of the state yields, your yields, and the US price with high odds after the report. That is all the information you need to make the decision. But you need to have everything in place.”

Wheat prices have softened, and Hilker’s rearview mirror says, “Using hindsight, it appears the time to have priced some 2009 wheat was early June. If we get near the previous highs during harvest, certainly consider pricing much of your wheat. It is very unclear to me that there will be any returns to storage, the futures certainly do not suggest any, and the basis is still very unreliable.” He says other crops may pay returns to storage.

Corn or beans? In addition to reduced corn yield, OH agronomist Peter Tomison says there are other considerations when debating whether to switch corn ground to beans:
1) Higher grain moisture that may require artificial drying.
2) Lower test weights that may result in significant dockage.
3) Greater stalk lodging and stalk rots that may slow harvest and reduce yield.
4) Increased injury from silk clipping by corn rootworm beetles and Japanese beetles.
5) Greater injury from foliar diseases, such as gray leaf spot.
6) Less effective nitrogen uptake if the weather turns dry after planting.

Purdue corn king Bob Nielsen recommends just parking your corn planter. After thunderstorms crossed through the Eastern Cornbelt on Thursday too many fields will be too wet to plant and “the agronomic viability of planting corn through the rest of this month in central and northern Indiana is essentially non-existent.” And his comments could reasonably apply to similar latitudes in neighboring states as well.

Nielsen joins other agronomists in saying maturity will be delayed too much. “Even early-maturity hybrids planted this late incur substantial risk of stressful weather conditions during flowering and grain filling prior to physiological maturity. Pollination that occurs in early to mid-August can easily experience some of the hottest and driest periods of the growing season.” Nielsen says plant stress will increase the potential for stalk rot as carbohydrates move from the stalk to the ears, with later risk of lodging.

With nitrogen dissipating in the soil, IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger says the switch from corn to beans is more justified on the basis of economics, “The expenditure to apply N has diminished, and even though it's not pleasant to write off such an expense, it is likely that the value of yield loss from delayed corn planting will exceed the value of the N left in most fields, making the switch to another crop more logical.”

Desperation alternative #1. Sorghum can be planted in late June to July, but needs good late summer weather fill grain, and that process can stop if September is cool. It attracts different insects, and sometimes weed control can be a challenge.

Desperation alternative #2. Buckwheat will produce seed even if planted in mid-July and will set seed until frost. Since it is a cool season crop, it will suffer in a hot dry summer. Contrary to some reports, buckwheat does not fix N and is not a soil builder.

Desperation alternative #3. Sorghum-sudan grass may be an alternative if there is a market for forage. While it is a warm season forage and can be planted late, it does not produce high quality forage. And late planting can compromise its quality.

Desperation alternative #4. If there is a forage market, corn can be planted as a forage crop and may even produce some grain, which would increase its feed value. It may have a similar yield to other forage crops without grain production. Late corn may escape corn rootworm, so the use of conventional, non-Bt seed may allow seed costs to drop.

Desperation alternative #5. Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says anecdotal reports indicate that prevented planting payments from crop insurance may exceed the expected profit from a cash crop that might be planted this late in the growing season. Read Nafziger’s planting options.

The double-crop calendar will be used by many soybean growers says IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger, “Full-season" soybeans will have little or no head start on double-crop soybeans in many areas this year. In fact, wheat dries out the soil as long as the wheat plants are still green, so fields following wheat harvest may in some cases be ready to plant sooner than those planned for a "full-season" (soybean) crop.”

What insects are attacking Cornbelt crops? Extension entomologists report:
1) Soybean aphids are near the MSU campus, northern IN, southern MN, & NW Ohio.
2) Sporadic infestations include: white grubs, wireworms, black cutworms, bean leaf beetles, potato leafhoppers in alfalfa, and armyworms in wheat fields.
3) Unusually high populations of corn borers are in NE and IA.
4) Corn rootworms are well into their hatch in central and northern IL.

Regarding soybean aphids in Ohio, Extension entomologist Ron Hammond expected to find high populations in odd-numbered years, “But what is unusual this year is the large number of aphids being found so early in the season. The situation could be that many soybean fields were planted late this year due to persistent wet weather, so early planted fields are receiving the brunt of aphid colonization.” He says scout early soybeans.

Late beans may be lucky! Late-planted soybeans have a lower disease risk than early-planted soybeans in nearly all diseases with the exception of soybean rust. "Late planting in soybeans really doesn't affect the disease situation much. In fact, it probably actually helps it," says Don Hershman, UK Extension plant pathologist. "Usually the only disease where there could be an increased risk is with soybean rust." Read more.

Asian soybean rust has been found in 21 counties in LA, AL, GA, & FL along with Mexico. IL plant pathologist Carl Bradley says when you consider the later planting of some Midwestern soybean fields, the risk of soybean rust may be slightly elevated. Rust has not been a yield problem the past several years because beans are mature by the time it has arrived in the Midwest. For updates, rely on the rust website.

Your first herbicide application may not have performed well, say Purdue weed specialists who say the cool, wet conditions may have interfered with translocation of the herbicide throughout the weed. That means a field check may find that a second herbicide application could be necessary. The specialists also warn that warmer temperatures will enhance weed growth and some could overtake young soybeans.

Should you use a PSNT test to analyze whether to apply nitrogen to corn, where you are concerned that spring weather conditions and Father Time may have diminished the N availability? The Pre-Sidedress Nitrate Test is a tool to help decide. However, WI soil scientist Carrie Laboski says when temperatures are cooler than normal by 1ºF or more, the PSNT test underpredicted the N credits that were due to manure and legumes by 59%. So, a cool PSNT test called for more N than was needed about 60% of the time.

Puny, discolored corn may outgrow its appearance when the soil warms up and dries out and root development is enhanced, says MSU soil scientist Darryl Warncke. Those symptoms include purple corn that appears to have a phosphorous deficiency, yellow striped leaves that appear to be a sulfur deficiency, and yellowish mottling that appears to be a magnesium deficiency. He says slow root growth interfered with nutrient uptake.

Are you applying 28% N in your UAN or only 20%? If you stored it over the winter, a cold spell of 0ºF may have caused the urea and ammonium nitrate to come out of solution and settle as crystals in the bottom of the tank. The N is not lost, but may need a pump to circulate the N back into a 28% solution, and the warmer the temperature, the better.

In the rush to apply anhydrous ammonia, Purdue safety specialist Bill Field says too many chances and shortcuts are taken, but be sure to not forget your safety checklist:
1) Ensure you have enough water to flush ammonia burns for 15 minutes.
2) Check integrity of hitches, because when they break, hoses snap and flail.
3) Goggles will save your sight and rubber gloves will protect your hands.
4) Your cell phone battery should be charged, so you can call for help if burned.

If your crops are burned, some of the blame may be attributed to sprayer tank residue. Kristine Schaefer at Iowa State says water may not always rinse out the residue and crops can be injured when the chemicals return to solution. Those include: Dicamba, 2,4-D, Status, NorthStar, Callisto, Impact, and Laudis. She says glyphosate and glufosinate are good tank cleaners and can rejuvenate older chemicals unexpectedly in the sprayer lines.

If your corn looks goofy, was Lumax part of your herbicide strategy? Purdue weed specialists say the weather and the chemistry may have collided and they have noticed corn injury in the form of bleaching of leaves and the inability of the corn leaves to unfurl. Testing at Purdue indicated potential problems when soils were cool and wet. Read more.

Is it too early for corn earworms and corn borers? No, says IL crop specialist Mike Roegge who has found both of them, despite the calendar. He says high populations can cause economic damage to young corn plants, and scouting should be a priority. Use this treatment decision aid.

Genetically-modified crops have benefited the environment, says IL entomologist Mike Gray, quoting a new study.
1) Since 1996 global farm income improved $21.8 bil. from beans & $7.2 bil. from corn.
2) In 2007, 12 mil. farmers used GMO technology, 90% of them in developing countries.
3) Pesticide use has dropped 8.8% (359 mil. KG of active ingredient) since 1996.
4) Herbicide and insecticide use has dropped a total of 17.2% since 1996.
5) Because of less pesticide use, 2007 tractor fuel savings totaled about 100 mil. gal.

Cow slaughter is up 1.7% for the year; but most of that is dairy cattle, and MO livestock economists say that is not enough, “This data indicates cow-calf producers have slowed or possibly even stopped the decline in the beef cow herd. With only about a 2% cut in the cow herd on Jan. 1, the odds are low that the herd has been reduced enough to get the beef supply in line with demand that will be profitable for producers with $4 corn.”

On the weather map, OSU meteorologist Jim Noel expects normal temperatures and precipitation for the summer. He says normal heat in July and September and a warmer than normal August. Rainfall is expected to be normal in July and September and drier in August. His early prediction is for an El Nino to turn fall and winter into warmer and drier than normal, which is a pattern change from the high moisture in 2008 and 2009.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:23 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

June 12, 2009

Cornbelt Update

USDA cut the soybean carryout to 110 mil. bu. at the end of August, but IL ag economist Darrel Good says price rationing will ensure a pipeline supply. “Prices will stay high or continue to rise until there is convincing evidence that consumption has slowed sufficiently to maintain at least a pipeline supply of old crop soybeans.” He says move old crop beans once the market is satisfied that sufficient rationing has occurred.

We will have enough beans, but Good says China has taken 629 mil. bu. so far and that is 188 mil. more than last year. Total soybean exports are projected to be 1.250 bil. thanks to the droughty Argentine harvest and the slack demand by the domestic crush. But USDA says the crush is picking up and may surpass 2008 stats by 5 mil. bu. Read his newsletter.

Darrel Good wonders if consumption is beginning to slow, saying there is evidence:
1) The pace of exports has dropped for two weeks and sales have been cancelled.
2) Higher prices for DDGS indicate livestock feeders are buying it instead of bean meal.
3) Exports of meal and oil are slightly above the pace projected by USDA.

USDA’s language in the June Supply-Demand report caught the eye of Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton, because the acreage estimates were “highly tentative.” He says USDA used the Planting Intentions report acreage, which will change. “That will certainly raise the level of interest in USDA’s June 30th Acreage report to an all time high. The USDA June domestic corn production projection may turn out to be a best case scenario.”

Woolverton says if planted corn acreage falls by a million acres or more in the June 30th report, carryover would fall below 1 bil. bu. And he adds, “If summer weather phenomena lowers national average yield even more, as some now predict, the corn supply/demand fundamentals will become very tight for this marketing year; and next, unless corn acreage expands dramatically next spring.”

Woolverton is concerned about the 110 mil. bu. soybean carryover this year and USDA’s projected 210 mil. bu. carryover next year, which he says is a 23 day supply. He says higher acreage of 79 million, but lower yield by 39.6 bu., which was last year’s national average, would result in a 100 mil. bu. cut in production and 22 day supply. Read more.

Biofuel demand has also started to rebound with higher fuel prices, says IA Extension’s Chad Hart. “Since the first of the year, corn and ethanol prices are up about 5%, soybean prices are up over 20% and gasoline prices are up over 70%. Gasoline prices have increased enough to overtake ethanol prices and the economics of blending again favor ethanol.” He expects more breathing room for ethanol prices and increased margins.

Your ACRE decision needs to be made by Aug. 14, says OSU economist Carl Zulauf. "Market events can happen between now and August to substantively impact the ACRE decision for corn and soybean producers and landlords. We could see a major increase in crop revenue, possibly due to higher prices resulting from a drought that would clearly reduce the incentive to participate in ACRE. On the other hand, we could see a big decrease in revenue between now and August that would clearly increase the incentive to participate in ACRE." He says prepare paperwork now, and file it just before Aug. 14.

Expect more hoop jumping for farmers needing credit says IL ag economist Bruce Sherrick, “In the end, there will likely be increased public disclosure and improved informational systems supporting loans and other forms of capital transfer, and there will be likely be improved risk-pricing (more responsive loan rates to borrower risk), but there is not likely to be a fundamental rationing of credit in agriculture as there may be in some other worse-hit sectors.” Sherrick says we are not revisiting the 1980’s at this time.

Agriculture entered “the crisis” in good shape, says Sherrick, “Compared to most other sectors, agriculture has exceptionally low leverage. USDA data indicate that the overall ag debt-to-asset ratio was only 9.1% as of 2008. Further, 2008 was a year of record agricultural income, following several other years of relatively high income levels. Further buffering the impacts, land values represent over 85% of the assets in the sector.”

Prices for diesel fuel are 52% less than year ago levels according to Kansas State’s Kevin Dhuyvetter, based on NYMEX futures prices. And he says that will be about the price differential through the balance of the summer. Harvest season will see diesel prices 40% under late 2008 prices, but December prices will be 13% over 2008.

How late can corn be planted? IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says, “Based on accumulated data, corn yield approaches 50% of its maximum yield when planting is delayed to June 15-20. But past data are so variable that such predictions are likely to be inaccurate for any given year. Most fields with stands above 20,000 to 25,000 should probably be kept now, given the severe penalty for planting so late.” Read about seedling losses in his latest newsletter. .

Corn rootworms began hatching in the Central Cornbelt about June 1, and will soon be at the 50% point, based on degree-day accumulations. For the balance of June, IL bug specialist Mike Gray says damage to late planted corn may be more severe, due to the overall smaller root system exposed to corn rootworm feeding. Scout your fields.

European corn borers may have a challenge surviving their first generation, due to delays in corn planting, says IL entomologist Mike Gray, and he says the prevalence of Bt fields will help drive survivors down even further. Gray says Bt refuges could be vulnerable to significant infestations, so scout them for decisions on spraying.

Soybean aphids have appeared in Michigan, but the intensity of the population is not yet determined, nor the density of their primary predators, the seven spotted lady beetle and the multicolored Asian lady beetle. Canadian researchers have found that adult seven spotted lady beetles consumed between 166 and 277 soybean aphids per day. The multicolored Asian lady beetles ate between 73 and 244 aphids per day. Hungry devils!

Wet soils prevented some cornfields from pre-emergent weed control, so the post-emergent herbicides will have to be the weapons of choice for many farmers. However, each has a restriction on the maximum stage and size of corn that it can be used. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager has that list.

Do you need more nitrogen? IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says that depends on soil types, amount of rainfall, and when the rains came in relation to the time that N was applied. He suggests a test strip through the field with a higher rate of nitrogen, then compare. If the higher rate strip looks better, then more nitrogen in the field is needed.

Nitrogen #1. In silt-loam or fine-textured fields with poor drainage, if you had excessive rain, ponding killed the corn, about 2 weeks after applying UAN or 4 or more weeks after applying anhydrous ammonia, you might consider applying 50 to 100 pounds of N per acre for the new corn crop. This situation occurs most often in low areas of a field.

Nitrogen #2. In sandy or light-textured soils, if 7-8 inches of rain soaked in without run-off, 2 weeks after applying UAN or 4 weeks after applying anhydrous ammonia, it is likely that a substantial part of that nitrogen was leached out of the root zone. In this situation you might also consider applying between 50 and 100 pounds of N per acre.

Nitrogen #3. In silt-loam or fine-textured soils with poor drainage where a large rain event caused water to be ponded for 1 to 3 days and UAN was applied at least 2 weeks before or anhydrous ammonia at least 4 weeks before the time of waterlogged conditions, you might consider applying 30 to 50 pounds of N per acre.

Nitrogen #4. In fields where the chance of N loss is less than 30 pounds per acre, there is no need to worry about applying more. This would include fields where excess soil water was present for 1 to 3 days within a week after applying UAN or urea or where anhydrous ammonia was applied less than 3 weeks before soils were waterlogged. Where N loss potential is low in light-textured soils, where infiltrated rain was less than 4 in., and most of the applied nitrogen was not in nitrate form, then you may have enough.

Nitrogen #5. If UAN or urea was sidedressed in sandy soils followed by heavy rain, the amount of additional N needed will depend on rain totals. 7 to 8 in. of rain would leach the N out of the root zone. 4 to 7 in. would leach some out, and you might consider applying 30-50 lbs of N per acre. More N may not be needed for rainfall under 4 in.

Puny, sickly corn may not indicate a shortage of nutrients, says IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez, “It is not unusual for crops in fields or portions of fields to show nutrient deficiencies even though adequate fertility and proper nutrient management plans are followed for phosphorus and potassium.” He says many other factors could be at work in his newsletter.

Sickly, puny corn may also be a victim of nitrogen application. Iowa State agronomist John Sawyer says ammonia injury frequently occurs with shallow placed ammonia, ammonia application near planting time, urea placed near the seed, and dry soils.

Corn injury could result from some the additives that have been placed in tank mixed herbicides. Iowa State weed specialist Bob Hartzler says, “Symptoms associated with additives (surfactants, AMS, etc.) include chlorotic mottling or necrosis of leaves, and are likely to be short-lived with no negative impact on crop development.”

Quality concerns are being expressed about soft red winter wheat because wet weather fostered fusarium head blight, and that creates vomitoxin or DON. Wheat millers will be concerned and high dockage or refusals may greet unsuspecting wheat growers.

If fusarium infection is prevalent in your wheat field, keep in mind those kernels will be lighter in weight. By turning up the air in the combine, the lighter kernels will be blown into the field, and that may reduce the DON level when the wheat is tested at the elevator. High DON wheat can also be cleaned prior to delivery to make it more marketable.

The breeding herd will have to decline 5-10% to get pork supplies in line with demand to push prices up to the cost of production, say Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain at Missouri. They say demand is still down from the H1N1 virus blamed on swine and they add, “How long it will take to recover from this flu situation is not very predictable.”

Cold storage pork stats are unfriendly. IA Extension’s Shane Ellis says, “A year ago robust exports and strong domestic demand utilized a mountain of pork in cold storage. While this year’s volume of pork in cold storage has been less than a year ago, volumes have started to trend higher at the time that last year’s volumes started to decline.”

Shane Ellis says, “Cattle on feed numbers although lower than a year ago are slowly closing the margin of difference. Carcass weights are up from a year ago as feeders hold cattle longer to heavier weights. The tighter supplies of fed cattle will continue through the end of the year. From the latest range condition report it is unlikely that a drought occurrence will incur a mass placement of early wean calves.”

But those pasture conditions will impact the market, according to Ellis. “First, there will be plenty of feed for stockers, lightening the supply of feeder cattle available for feedlot placement. Last year feedlot placements were lighter when corn prices were reaching record highs. Second, with added grazing resources available there will be less pressure to cull cow herds. Although the number of beef cows will be lower, the number of dairy cows entering the slaughter supply is increasing with the dairy retraction.”

The process of crop scouting is methodical, says MO Extension’s Allen Wrather:
1) Determine the variety and the age of the plant.
2) Identify all the symptoms affecting the leaves, stems, roots and fruit.
3) Estimate the percentage of plants damaged in the affected part of the field.
4) Determine the distribution or pattern of the problem in the field.
5) Evaluate whether the crop and weeds in the field share similar symptoms.
6) Determine the history of the problem.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:02 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

June 5, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Delayed planting in IL, IN & OH may push the national corn yield potential down to 152 bu. estimates Purdue marketing specialist Chris Hurt, who says acreages shifts from corn to beans won’t help either. He says the low production means usage cuts by the ethanol and livestock industries which are already in negative margin territory.

But Hurt says the kicker will be the impact on the ethanol industry because the Renewable Fuels Standard requires 12 bil. gal. in 2010 and that means 350 to 400 mil. bu. more corn will have to be produced this year. If that is a hardship, Hurt says the EPA administrator can reduce the requirement, which softens the corn market. Read more.

The soybean market is being fueled by the short supply in Argentina and the long demand in China, according to Purdue’s Chris Hurt. He says US exports could rise 60 to 80 mil. bu. above USDA’s projection of 1.24 bil. bu., pushing carryout below 100 mil. bu. representing only a 12 day supply; and he says that may lead to $14 soybeans. Read more.

New crop soybean prices will be a function of 2009 acreage, more than anything else says Hurt. He says, “If July futures do move to $14, this might only increase November new crop futures by 40¢ to 60¢ per bu. and approach the $11 per bu. mark.

Use a spread to market beans, says Hurt, “Consider pricing new crop futures by selling old crop futures months like the July, August, or September. This is an old crop/new crop spread which is full of risks. Those risks can be lowered sharply by selling the August or September futures rather than the July futures. Generally by late July or early August the old crop shortage situation will be resolved and August and September prices may decline more than the November futures.” He adds, be sure of what you are doing.

If you don’t store soft red wheat, and only 1 in 4 bushels is stored, you may want to rethink that marketing strategy this year. New crop prices are $1.30 higher than in April because the crop size is 68% of last year. IL Extension’s Darrel Good says the harvest delivery basis is 96¢ under July, compared to $1.76 at this time last year. He expects further price strengthening on a deteriorating winter wheat crop and corn crop concerns. Read more.

Wheat has been a problem for the futures market because of the lack of convergence of cash and futures. Good says corrective efforts have resulted in a 50¢ premium for Dec futures, and a 64¢ premium for Mar 2010 futures. And he says a stronger basis will be another benefit for wheat producers who store this year, instead of harvest sales.

Replanting beans? Tough decisions should be based on good data says IL agronomist Vince Davis. Read his newsletter here.
1) You are losing roughly ½ bu. of soybean yield potential per day of delay in June.
2) An evenly spaced seeding rate of 50,000 plants/A will produce 91% of expected yield.
3) 150,000 seeds planted June 1, with 50,000 plants/A has a 90% yield potential.
4) If the low stand is not uniform, one idea is to plant more seeds into an existing stand.
5) The thinner the stand, the more delayed the canopy, and the higher the weed pressure.
6) Buy more time for a thin stand with an extra application of post emergence herbicide.

It may have been entrapment, but Michigan State entomologists have found soybean aphids on early planted soybeans on the campus, reporting 5% of the plants were infested. The aphid population included both winged and non-winged individuals, some of which had arrived via a rainfall, but unseen in the prior week.

Weed competitiveness depends on your cropping system say NE researchers, who found narrow row beans reduce weed competition by 20-50% compared to wider rows, as well as when the weeds emerged relative to the growth stage of the crop. Competitiveness was defined as the amount of dry matter produced by the weeds.

Weed control #1. Post emergent herbicide applications on corn is recommended when weeds are 2-4 in., since grain yield loss will occur as weed competition increases beyond that height. Additionally, smaller weeds are easier to control than larger weeds.

Weed control #2. The prevalent use of glyphosate has diminished the use of tank mixes of broadleaf and grass herbicides, but IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says glyphosate resistance may bring the practice back into popularity. For glyphosate resistant corn, he recommends tank mixing growth regulator herbicides with glyphosate for waterhemp.

Weed control #3. Post emergent herbicides for corn that restrict application to corn maturity, should be applied against the most restrictive, whether that is height, leaves, or other factors. Hager says the same recommendation goes for tank mixed herbicides.

If you have wheat, it probably has a disease of some type, according to an Illinois wheat survey. It found 77 to 100% of wheat had leaf blotch, usually minor problems with leaf rust, 50-92% had glume blotch, and head scab was as low as 17% and high as 100%.

Don’t take an antibiotic if you have a virus, and if your wheat has a virus, don’t try to treat it with a fungicide. Just like the antibiotic, it won’t work, says OH Extension’s Pierce Paul. He’s seen wheat spindle streak mosaic and barley yellow dwarf virus in wheat fields, but he says next year, select wheat varieties that carry resistance.

It is too late this year to cure scabs and blotches in wheat, but next year choose a variety that is resistant to the diseases in your field this year. IL Pathologist Carl Bradley says planting wheat into excess surface corn stubble increases the chance for fusarium.

Crazytop in corn may be a common sight in parts of the Cornbelt this year, because conditions were good for downy mildew fungus which causes it. Infection can set in when young plants are in saturated soils for 24-48 hours between planting and the five leaf stage. Water accumulation in the whorl also is a contributing factor.

Wet soils in the eastern Cornbelt are contributing to early season corn and soybean diseases, stemming from soil borne pathogens that are attracted to plant roots, and cause a deterioration of the root system. OSU specialists recommend several routes to take:
1) Manage the drainage in the field, which are indicated by the replant frequency.
2) Use a seed treatment for both corn and beans that have several active ingredients.
3) Use a seed treatment when the crop has to be replanted.
4) Choose resistant varieties and hybrids, particularly for phytophthora in beans.
5) Plant when the soil is sufficiently dry and conditions favor the seed not the disease.

The active ingredient in Furadan 4F is being banned by the EPA after Aug. 13. The impact is Furadan 4F can be used this year, but not next year. Don’t stockpile it, since you cannot sell a crop that has been treated with Furadan after Jan. 1. If using Furadan 4F to protect Bt refuges, alternatives include granular application units on planters or purchase seed that has been treated with neonicotinoids such as Poncho or Cruiser.

Stalk borers should be on your scouting radar. If you find them on brome and ragweed they will soon migrate to corn. They will tunnel in unfurled leaves at ground level and wilt the upper leaves of corn, and YieldGard corn is not immune. When 8-9% of corn plants are infested at the 3-5 leaf stage with corn at $4, rescue treatment is warranted. Read more.

Wireworms are not always being stopped by Poncho 250, according to Iowa State entomologists. They have caused a stand loss in fields with the treatment and anyone using the product should scout for damage, and consider higher rates next year.

Bean leaf beetles are on the warning list of MO Extension, where numbers have exceeded economic thresholds on early planted beans without insecticides. Flea beetles were also spotted in corn fields where seed did not have insecticide treatments. Find management tips.

Growing season weather should be good, says meteorologist Jim Noel at Ohio State. He’s calling for the summer season to be close to normal rainfall and temperature, with limited heatwaves during the summer. He attributes that to sunspots, and the lack of La Nina and El Nino. But he’s expecting an El Nino to be in the forecast for the fall and winter, which means drier than normal with good fall harvest conditions.

Livestock producers will want to “bookmark” a reference point to obtain accurate information about a wide variety of animal diseases, including hoof and mouth disease, BSE or mad cow disease, anthrax, avian flu, Johne’s, and west nile virus. Links to authoritative sources are here.

Stu Ellis

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May 29, 2009

Cornbelt Update

Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

USDA’s projection of 85 mil. corn acres is in doubt because of planting delays, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State, and that increases the chances of carryover stocks going low enough to initiate price rationing. He says a one mil. acre decline would cut the surplus to 8%, well below the 10-12% of the past 10 years. Read his latest newsletter.

Woolverton says if there is a two mil. acre decline in corn acreage, that would cut the carryover to only 5%, if delayed planting also caused a 3 bu. drop in the national yield. He says the last time that happened was in 1995, when corn futures spiked upward.

With delayed corn planting and delayed wheat planting, how many acres will shift to beans, wonders Woolverton at Kansas St.? He says the market is anticipating anywhere from 2 to 4 mil. more soybean acres than the USDA’s projection of 76 mil. Beans are still the strength of the market, attributed to the short crop in South America, US exports to China, and the prospect for ending stocks to be at critically low levels this year.

Soybean acreage is an uncertainty because of delays in planting corn, says Melvin Brees at Missouri, but delays in planting soybeans could result in lower yields and production. Currently the USDA projected soybean price range is $8.45 to $10.45, and Brees says, “If the uptrend from the early March price low continues, following the trend higher with “trailing stops” is another alternative. However, if prices falter, current new crop bids offer profitable prices within the projected price range and the potential to avoid lower prices.”

Pork producers know the score, and currently they are on the losing end with the game in late innings for some producers, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. He expects some nearly ready to forfeit the rest of the game, unable to wait for the world to return to its 2008 healthy taste for pork, when 20% of US production was exported. Read his newsletter.

Five weeks ago “swine flu” dominated the headlines until the pork industry convinced the media to label it H1N1 virus, but carcass values had lost $10 within a week and farmgate hog prices lost 17%. Hurt says the lower market prices were exacerbated by climbing costs of corn and soybean meal, with current losses around $25 per head.

Purdue’s Chris Hurt expects June to bring prices in the high $40 and low $50 range, not enough to cancel out high production costs that may cause $7 per head losses in the latter half of the year. The 2009 losses are expected to average about $12 per head. That should mean the breeding herd will continue to diminish for the rest of the year.

The US wheat crop is having serious issues. Winter wheat acreage is down 7%. Spring wheat acres were supposed to be down 6%, but two mil. acres remain unplanted in MN and ND. Drought and freeze damage have hurt the Great Plains wheat crop. In OK where drought was a problem, early harvested fields have yields less than forecast.

By the time you see wheat scab, it may be too late to do anything about it says IL Extension’s Jim Morrison. But he’s warning that current moisture and temperatures are perfect for its development. Morrison suggests wheat growers use an early warning system for managing wheat scab at www.wheatscab.psu.edu/ . In addition to seed variety resistance, management includes use of a fungicide in the triazole family.

Got weeds? They are an equal opportunity commodity, but sometimes you just don’t know what one is, and without a name, it is not easy to find an herbicide to control all of your unwanted visitors. Find the weed names with their pictures at these resources.
1) Pest bulletin
2) Spring weeds

Glyphosate guide #1. With at least 30 different formulations on the market, users need to compare alternatives by the number of pounds of acid equivalent per gallon of product. The concentration of the acid is what kills the weed, so compare before buying.

Glyphosate guide #2. Some glyphosate products have surfactants, such as Roundup PowerMax and Touchdown Total. Others do not have a built in adjuvant system, and may perform less satisfactory under extreme conditions. When a surfactant is missing, add a high quality, non-ionic surfactant at 0.25 to 1.0% v/v.

Glyphosate guide #3. Michigan St. weed specialists recommend the addition of ammonium sulfate to all glyphosate products, at the rate of 17 lbs per 100 gallons. AMS minimizes the impact of hard water on glyphosate and helps with velvetleaf control.

Glyphosate guide #4. The optimum time for glyphosate applications is when weeds are 4 inches tall in narrow row beans and 6 inches tall in soybeans planted in 30 inch rows.

You have made the decision to replant, but how do you eliminate the old corn crop?
1) IL Extension’s Aaron Hager is not facetious when he suggests tillage.
2) Glyphosate is effective at controlling corn that is susceptible to glyphosate.
3) Glyphosate resistant corn can be controlled with Poast, Poast-Plus, Fusion,
Fusilade, Select, and Assure II, but there are delays before replanting corn.

No one is certain, but if the weather is “normal” for the balance of the growing season, late planted corn could still perform well, and perform much better than in 1995 when late planting contributed to a 113 bu. average IL corn crop. That is the contention of IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger, who says corn is now more resistant to bugs and stress.
1) Corn may have loss several hundred GDD, but sufficient temperatures should remain.
2) The longest days and most light will arrive before full canopy, so grain will be less.
3) Pollination is moved back, so rainfall will be more critical than normal.
4) Damp soils mean compaction, so corn may have fewer roots and need more rainfall.
5) Stalks will be more spindly and less able to hold larger ears.
6) Grain development will be delayed to a time when leaves may be hurt by fungus.

University of Wisconsin researchers are taking issue with the federal approval of an expanded label for Headline fungicide, and refuting some of the claims made by BASF. The WI staff says Headline was tested at its lab and, “To date, the results from our trials have not shown a consistent response for use of foliar fungicides, except when the level of disease has warranted the application of a fungicide.” Read their response to the Plant Health Label.

Headline fungicide is a multi crop fungicide, but promotional claims were questioned by 46 WI researchers who said they were concerned about the broad statements about the perceived benefits of the product. Those statements included:
1) Increased tolerance to environmental stresses.
2) Improved plant utilization of nitrogen
3) Increased tolerance to bacterial and viral infections
4) Improved straw strength of small grains
5) Improved stalk strength in corn, better hail tolerance, and more uniform seed size.

Congratulations are due, if your soybean seedlings are healthy, but you won’t really know without scouting. Pythium and phytophthora will attack the seedlings under the soil and cause rot, which are seen most frequently in fields with a hard crusty soil. IA State plant pathologist X. B. Yang says identification of those and other fungi are important steps for your 2010 seed selection and choice of fungicidal seed treatments.

Ohio has a “perfect storm” for black cutworms, and some corn fields have densities that exceed recommended thresholds for rescue treatments. Entomologists are advising corn growers to scout for potential problems, and take a break from planting to do that and save what little corn has emerged. The economic threshold is 3-5% cutting. Get a refresher.

Balance the cost of cutworm control with the value of the crop, say Iowa State entomologists. Compared to this year, 2008 corn was more valuable and the treatment thresholds were lower. They have developed a decision aid based on crop values:

Poor growing conditions have been prevalent, and they have aided grubs, wireworms, seedcorn maggots, and cutworms in doing their dirty work. Purdue entomologists have found those larvae are not being controlled by low rates of Cruiser and Poncho applied to the seed, particular when populations are high. The upshot is when the seedling is not growing vigorously, such as this year, then the systemic insecticides work poorly.

Relatively cool spring temperatures have minimized nitrogen losses in the mind of Purdue fertility specialist Jim Camberato. At least he does not believe there has been any more this year than normal. Based on fall application of anhydrous ammonia, he says the average loss would be about 30%, if a nitrification inhibitor was not applied also. Cut that number to 15% if the anhydrous ammonia was applied early this spring.

You’ve probably lost some nitrogen, but it is difficult to say how much is lost. IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez say the conversion of ammonium to nitrate depends on temperature, and recently it would take 1-2 weeks for nitrogen to be lost to leaching or nitrate if it was applied after May 1. Read more.

If you have switched to shorter season corn, how should your fertility program change? Fernandez says that means a reduced yield potential and less need for the N that you typically apply. “For each week that planting is delayed from the optimum for your area, it is recommended that you reduce N rate by 20 pounds per acre down to a minimum of 80 pounds per acre (for very late planting).” Plant first, apply N later.

If your fertility program needs to be more cost-conscious, the reduced rate is a good start, says Fernandez. But he says get the N to where it can be used by the corn roots.
1) Surface applications require rain or irrigation to move N into the root zone.
2) Injected N needs to be between rows to reduce root injury. Roots grow toward it.
3) Apply N to every other row, giving corn some N on at least one side.
4) Aerial application should be under 125 lbs/A and not applied when corn is wet.

Concerns about the carbon footprint of ethanol are addressed by Kurt Thelen of Michigan State, who says the effort to discredit ethanol because it will cause changes in other countries is misleading. He says the bottom line is the fact that burning gasoline emits 19.4 lbs of carbon dioxide per gal., but it takes 1.4 gal. of ethanol to do that.

By growing corn to refine into ethanol, Thelen at Michigan State says all of the crop inputs for an acre would represent 1,250 lbs of carbon dioxide per acre, or 2.9 lbs per gallon of ethanol produced. He says that is a 78% reduction from the process of refining gasoline, and it will be 94% less than gasoline when perennial grasses are used.

June Dairy Month will not be a high point of the year for many dairymen because of huge financial losses resulting from milk dropping from $18 to $12 per cwt in the past 6 months. IL dairy specialist Mike Hutjens says $16 to $18 is the current breakeven price for milk, and a 105 cow operation is losing $10,000 per month. He says much of the problem is due to the stronger dollar that has eliminated the dairy export business.

So what is a dairyman to do? Hutjens says with a new forage year underway, look for any means of improving forage quality and quantity in dairy rations. Grain by-products such as corn gluten feed, wet brewers grain, and DDGS are good ways to replace soy meal and corn when trying to cut the cost of rations, which are 60% of expenses.

Other opportunities in dairy profitability, according to IL Extension’s Hutjens:
1) Target feed costs under 9¢/lb dry matter & raise milk to feed efficiency to 1.6.
2) Silage inoculants, monensin, buffers, yeast products & trace minerals are good.
3) Ration reduction only will reduce milk yield and decrease health and immunity.
4) USDA’s MILC program will provide relief for farms with less than 150 cows.
5) CME milk futures are at $15 for fall prices, but still below production costs.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:48 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

May 22, 2009

Cornbelt Update

The market ought to be more worried about corn planting delays in the Eastern Cornbelt says IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good, who believes a potential 22 bu. per acre shortfall in IL, compared to 2008, could also be the case in Indiana and Ohio. Read his newsletter.

Good says the market may be ignoring planting delays because a similar situation in 2008 was erased with perfect summer weather. As a result he says the market:
1) may be primarily focusing on other supply and demand fundamentals.
2) may expect higher ethanol and export demand, along with Wall St. stability.
3) may not appreciate the yield implications of extremely late planting dates.

An IL weather and yield model developed by IL ag economists predicts:
1) A 175 bu. state average yield with average weather and only 14% planted late.
2) A 157 bu. state average yield with average weather and 75% planted late.
3) A 172 bu. state average yield with cool, wet weather and 75% planted late.
4) A 134 bu. state average yield with hot, dry weather and 75% planted late.

Planting delays will help push prices higher in a strong demand corn market believes Melvin Brees at MO Extension. His May newsletter says lower yields will lead to price strength, “One possible upside price objective is to target prices in December futures near the $4.70 high that occurred in January. Continued planting delays might provide the chance to increase price targets if prices continue to move higher.” Read his newsletter.

June 1 begins the ACRE sign-up, and some farms will either be helped or hurt by ACRE. OSU economist Carl Zulauf says put some in and keep some out.
1) For corn-soybean-wheat farms, the reduction in direct payment per planted acre usually will be smaller, the greater the share of base acres that are soybeans.
2) Compared to the counter-cyclical program, ACRE better matches current production risk because its payment is based on planted acres (up to the farm’s total base acres).
3) The higher a farm’s 5-year Olympic moving average yield, relative to the state’s 5-year Olympic average yield for a crop, the higher the farm’s ACRE revenue payment.
4) The more yield has increased the higher will be a FSA farm’s Olympic average yield. For example, recently tiled fields may have greater yield increases.
5) The closer changes in yield on a FSA farm and state move together, the more similar is changes in farm and state revenue, implying better risk protection from ACRE.

Flipping the switch. If you think that it is too late for corn and you are going to plant soybeans instead, work through a checklist from Vince Davis of IL Extension.
1) Review the economic decisions.
2) Variety selection will be a key, so look for university trial reports in your state.
3) Choose a variety with SCN resistance different that what was planted last year.
4) Warmer soils mean more fungal problems, so find varieties with disease resistance.
5) You will not benefit from any nitrogen application, so check that off as lost.
6) Check the label for issues with any corn pre-emergent herbicide that was applied.
7) With the intense fieldwork in narrow windows, keep rested, alert, and safe.

What little corn that has been planted in some states has been flooded out, and replant decisions are the top priority. IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger knows you are wondering about using a shorter season hybrid. He says, “Early-maturing corn planted late is likely to be hurt even more by weather-related problems than mid-maturity hybrids would be, and both will be damaged by early frost. This suggests that going to earlier hybrids, especially if they are not adapted, may provide little or no benefit when planting is late.” Read more.

There is a similar philosophy from the OSU agronomists, who say, “In Ohio and Indiana, we've observed decreases in required heat units from planting to kernel black layer which average about 6.8 growing degree days (GDDs) per day of delayed planting. Therefore a hybrid rated at 2800 GDDs with normal planting dates (i.e. late April or early May) may require slightly less than 2600 GDDs when planted in late May or early June, i.e. a 30 day delay in planting may result in a hybrid maturing in 204 fewer GDDs (30 days multiplied by 6.8 GDDs per day).” Read more.

Some replant scenarios may have a farmer tearing up a marginal field that would have outyielded a newly planted late maturing field. Nafziger believes, “It is important to make the replant decision based on estimated effects on net income, not on an emotional basis or a need to "make the field look better." At the same time, listening to one's gut isn't always a bad thing,” especially if the numbers make it look like a wash.

The main problem with planting soybeans on drowned out corn is the issue of what pre-emergent herbicide was used. Purdue agronomists report, “The only herbicides labeled for use in corn which would allow replanting soybean immediately are Prowl and Python. All other soil-applied corn herbicides have a several month rotational interval which must elapse before beans can be planted. Most of the post-emergence herbicides have shorter rotational intervals, but would still require a couple of weeks before planting.”

Early planting requires higher planting rates, only because of the cooler soils earlier in the season. Later planting has the benefit of warmer soil temperature and germination improves, which may allow seeding rates to be lowered by 3-5% to reach the desired harvest population, since a higher percentage of seed will germinate.

Even though your planting date is delayed, that is no reason to change your plant population, say OH State agronomists. Regardless of the date, final stands of 30-36,000 population were required for optimal yields. However, they found that the lack of response to higher population was related to increased stalk lodging.

If moving from planting to spraying, IA St. ag engineers have several ideas to cut spray drift. They say a 100 micron drop will blow 96 ft. from a 3 ft. boom height, in a 20 mph wind.
1) Increase droplet size to prevent small droplets from entering air currents.
2) Use larger spray tips and operate them at lower pressures.
3) Keep booms at the lowest height that still allows nozzle overlap.
4) Drive slower near field borders if using spray controller that lowers pressure.

The wet spring may have placed weeds lower on your priority list, but IA State weed specialist Bob Hartzler says act conservatively to minimize the risk of yield loss by letting weeds get out of control. He says if weeds are more concentrated than 10 per square foot, they need to be controlled before reaching 2 inches in height. They will not only take moisture away from an emerging crop, but will steal any applied nitrogen.

Volunteer corn should also be on your priority list to control. Hartzler says one volunteer corn plant per 10 foot row of soybeans will cut yield by 1.3%. If your volunteer corn is glyphosate resistant, he says use paraquat or SelectMax, but if using the latter, there is a 6 day interval between spraying and planting to avoid residue issues.

Weed control #1. In no-till fields which have yet to be planted, failure to control glyphosate resistant weeds before planting could lead to significant challenges in bean fields where few alternatives exist for post emergent weed control. IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says glyphosate tank mix partners will be needed before and after planting.

Weed control #2. While growth regulators can be effective, there must be a time lapse between application and planting. If you do not have that time, eliminate the growth regulator from the burndown or increase the rate of the non-selective herbicide.

Weed control #3. Since larger weeds require a higher rate of herbicide application, delaying a burndown application until after planting may require high rates of application. For glyphosate burndowns, Hager recommends adding the full recommended rate of AMS, and be cautious of products without sufficient AMS.

As weeds escape a particular set of POST herbicides and become increasingly hard to control, PRE herbicides, selected for those weeds, will minimize the selection pressure of the herbicide resistant or tolerant weeds in that field, say Purdue agronomists. “Even if some of the weeds are not totally killed by the PRE treatment, weed growth is reduced allowing the POST application to be made to smaller weeds, ensuring better coverage and increased control. While herbicide resistant crops have allowed for a wider window of application over the past decade, as weeds become more resistant to these herbicides, it is important to change to different modes of action or add an herbicide with a different mode of action to the herbicide program to keep weeds in check and yields high.” Read more.

The loss of nitrogen will be minimal if you applied anhydrous ammonia, say OSU fertility specialists. They report it is “fairly resistant to microbial oxidation and eliminates the bacteria responsible for nitrification. Thus, that material can be in the field for a week or two prior to conversion to nitrate. Additionally, the speed of microbial oxidation is a function of soil temperature.” They say GGD are less than normal.

However, UAN dry or liquid may be more at risk of degradation, particularly if the field was waterlogged for more than a day. And liquid UAN, more so, than dry UAN. Again, temperatures are key to the speed of the nitrification, and coolness slows it down.

“Refuge in a bag,” also known as Pioneer’s AcreMax, has not yet been totally adopted by a government advisory panel. The concept is to reduce the Bt refuge from 20% of acreage to only 5%, but the group said the blended seed did not prove to be either toxic or a repellant. The result is more study, and EPA is expected to soon weigh into the debate.

Have corn rootworms drowned in the Eastern Cornbelt? Their mortality is high in saturated soils and standing water, but IL Extension entomologist Mike Gray asks if they have even hatched yet. Based on degree-days, Gray says we are at the midpoint of the hatch, and some are still in the egg stage and immune to the ponded fields.

Consider the rootworm environment. Cool water and soil will preserve rootworm eggs. Warmer temperatures will decrease the survival rate. Larvae have survival problems, until they can find corn roots, then survival in standing water is improved. Planting delays will jeopardize their survival, since about half will die within 24 hours if they cannot find corn root tissue to enter. 95% will starve in 3 days without corn roots.

Was wheat hurt by the recent cold nights? That is a possibility, but it depends on the variety, the growth stage, how cold it was, and the length of exposure to the cold. Spikes can be trapped, leaves discolored, flowers sterilized, and lower stems damaged. But, OSU agronomists say wheat is a winter crop and can tolerate cold temperatures.

Cattle feeders are still seeing red ink says livestock economist Dillon Feuz, who says “Nebraska feedlots have averaged a $120 per head loss since January 2008.” But he adds, “Cattle prices have strengthen this month to the point of a positive return for some producers. However, it would appear that feeder cattle that were purchased near the average market price and that have average feedlot performance will not break-even this summer. For those cattle to break-even, feeding costs would need to remain at present levels and the fed cattle market would need to regain that $2-3 per cwt that has been lost in the last two weeks.” He thinks $85 would be breakeven for some fed cattle.

Essentially, a catch-22 is what IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen describes with the current federal policy on ethanol. He says the Obama administration wants the average fuel economy to increase to 35.5 mpg by 2016, but the move to increase the ethanol blend from 10 to 15% would cause a further reduction in fuel economy. Read his rather critical observation.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:37 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

May 15, 2009

Extension Update

USDA nibbled away at the corn surplus, cutting it to 1.6 bil. bu. by transferring 50 bil. bu. each to export and ethanol estimates. IL Extension’s Darrel Good says the 12.09 bil. bu. production estimate parallels 2008, while the expected yield rose 1.5 bu. and harvested acreage fell by 800 thousand. Good says the projected 155.4 bu. average yield is a function of the trend line, adjusted for a slight decline due to planting delays.

Corn consumption will climb over 400 mil. bu. going into next year, which USDA estimates will be 12.56 bil. 350 mil. additional bu. will be used for ethanol and 150 mil. for exports, while 100 mil. fewer bu. will be fed, leaving only 1.145 bil. in ending stocks. Read more.

Darrel Good expects a modest shift from corn to beans in the Eastern Cornbelt due to planting delays, which can also reduce yield. That is one reason for USDA’s 1.5 bu. cut in the expected 2009 corn yield. He says without favorable weather like 2008, the slow planting will contribute to additional advances in corn prices.

Weather and planting progress will remain the major driver for crop prices over the short term, says IA Extension’s Chad Hart. “Longer term, the markets will continue to watch the development of biofuel regulations. The recent releases by the California Air Resources Board and the federal Environmental Protection Agency, incorporating indirect land use change and greenhouse gas emissions, were seen as negatives to the biofuel industry. But these policies are being phased in over a few years and are subject to additional review, so biofuel policy uncertainty remains,” according to Hart.

The soybean carryout for the current marketing year already was low, and USDA cut it further to 130 mil. bu. by increasing the crush and exports. Darrel Good says harvested acreage will climb 400 thousand and if the trend line yield of 42.6 bu. is reached, production will be 3.195 bil. bu. 2010 consumption is estimated at 3.107 bil. bu.

USDA may have overestimated grain supplies in the May report says KS Extension’s Mike Woolverton.
1) The 41.4 bu. wheat yield may be too high, given adverse weather and late planting.
2) Unplanted wheat acres will shift to soybeans or other alternative crops.
3) Global crop estimates were cut 4%, but major producers have production problems.
4) Don’t count on good weather to rescue US crops a second year from late planting.
5) An inverse in the bean market indicates price rationing is already occurring.
6) Global bean stocks can’t increase with the poor South American yields.

With oil prices pushing towards $60, gas prices have caught up with ethanol prices, says Jim Hilker at Michigan State. “If oil prices continue up, I would expect gas prices to over take ethanol prices. Up to this point the higher gas prices haven't affected the ethanol price a lot, just like the ethanol prices quit dropping, due to the mandates and blender credits, at prices not way below where they are now. If oil prices continue up, it will help corn prices, if they stay where they are at, it will put a better support under corn prices.”

Soybeans have been in an up trend since the end of February, and recently they have caught up with corn. Or in Hilker’s words, “returns per acre are a tossup for the average farm.” He suspects soybean prices will now move more consistently with corn, if corn plantings are on target, if not, relative corn prices may pull back ahead. Hilker says, “Strongly consider pricing remaining old crop soybeans on this rally.”

Dec corn futures have a price risk premium, says IA Extension’s Steven Johnson, due to the fact much of the Cornbelt is not planted, and that provides a pricing opportunity. He says based on the past 18 years, there is a 79% chance the May corn price will be higher than the October price for Dec corn futures. His newsletter details that logic.

Consider new crop pricing, says Johnson if you have revenue crop insurance that guarantees a $4.04 corn price, the current price exceeds that level by 45¢. He says don’t commit too many pre-harvest bushels, and use forward contracts or hedge-to-arrive. He says hedges or options can complement your cash contracts to manage your futures risk.

Even with a US wheat crop that is 366 mil. bu. less than last year, USDA projects average prices to decline from the $6.85 this year to a range of $4.70 to $5.70 for the new crop. Darrel Good at Illinois says one of the reasons is the larger foreign wheat stocks.

Failed wheat may earn a SURE disaster payment, but the temptation to plant an alternative crop may be a financial disaster. OK Extension’s Rodney Jones says any replacement crop that jeopardizes a SURE payment, must not only make a profit itself, but cover the loss of the SURE payment, and that is not guaranteed. Read more.

Benchmark Farm Yield is the term FSA will be using to determine whether your farm will be eligible for an ACRE payment, should you decide to enroll. OH Extension’s Mike Gastier says BFY may be the only effective way to prove yields in the Farm Bill. He adds, “It's in a producer's best interest to establish a strong Benchmark Farm Yield because the higher the Benchmark Farm Yield the more likely it is that the farm trigger is met and the higher the payment per acre will be should both triggers be met.”

How do you establish a Benchmark Farm Yield? Gastier says it is computed from your 2004-2008 yields, with the high and low years eliminated. Acceptable yield proof will include actual settlements or weight tickets through a commercial grain facility or crop insurance data including NAP or the APH database, but yield monitors will not be acceptable. If the data is not available, the default is 95% of the county average yield.

Corn lesson #1. IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says wet soils restrict the availability of oxygen to the corn seedlings that have germinated. He says the warmer the soil, the more oxygen that is needed because the growth rate is higher than with cooler soils.

Corn lesson #2. Mid-May brings the threshold for yield loss of 1.5 bu. per day that corn is not planted. While some may want to “mud it in” the resulting soil compaction from working soil that is too wet can have a detrimental impact later in the summer if the weather turns hot and dry. Compacted soil will restrict moisture availability to the corn.

Corn lesson #3. Nafziger says poor emergence could be the result of crusted soils:
1) A healthy, but thickened coleoptile means a crust or clod physically interfered.
2) A discolored and mushy seed indicates disease has set in and it will die.
3) Insect larvae may have eaten parts of the seed or seedling, which stopped its growth.
4) Reduced oxygen supply will allow roots to grow, but not the leaf shoot.
5) A seedling that is growing slowly is subject to invasion by soil-borne diseases.

Replanting is a decision some farmers will have to make, based on poor stands from the initial planting. IA State agronomists offer a guide to making that decision easier, comparing the potential yield from the first stand, versus the potential yield from any replanting, but they say actual losses could be greater or less. Find the chart.

Northern Cornbelt farmers who need to plant or replant, face critical decisions on dates, says MN Extension’s Jeff Coulter. He says MN corn planted after mid-May faces a 9% yield loss at a minimum. And he says stick with original hybrid choices until the last week in May before switching to an earlier maturing hybrid. Review his charts and calculations.

Your corn is emerging in a weed field. Now what? IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says:
1) If you planted in wet soil and the seed furrow did not close, the corn seedlings can be exposed to a soil residual herbicide applied after planting, with severe injury resulting.
2) If your corn is within a day or two of emerging, don’t consider applying a pre-emergent herbicide that is not supposed to be applied to post emergent corn.
3) Many, but not all, soil residual herbicide can be applied after corn emergence. However not all of them will control weeds that have emerged along with the corn.
4) Consult his newsletter.

Corn pests #1. Corn planted into pasture or CRP may attract wireworms which can remain in the larval stage for 6 years before becoming an adult beetle. They prefer cool soils, so earlier corn will be at a higher risk. With no rescue treatment for wireworms, the only preventative measure is the use of seed treatments, but they are becoming so commonly used, NE researchers detect that insect resistance is a possibility.

Corn pests #2. White grubs prefer to feed on grasses, which includes corn. Annual grubs will not be a problem, but heavy damage can occur from three-year grubs in the last two years of their larval stage. Damage to corn will not show up until after they are done feeding. There is no rescue treatment, but some fields will require replanting.

Corn pests #3. Cutworms will be at work within 7 days after emergence of corn, and may not be affected by any seed treatments or Bt traits. Cutworms will be heaviest in fields that had a high weed infestation prior to corn planting. Use a rescue treatment if 5% or more of the corn has been cut and worms are one inch or under. If soil is dry or crusted, rotary hoeing immediately before or after Lorsban (chlorpyrifos) application may enhance control. Any insecticides that are Pyrethroids should not be incorporated.

Think ahead about weed control in soybeans with an insecticide strategy. NE Extension’s Stevan Knezevic reports that weeds are more successful in soybeans that have suffered some insect defoliation because the canopy is reduced. He says, “Soybeans with 30%-60% insect damage have a shorter weed control window and potentially fewer weed control options. Early season bean leaf beetle feeding and defoliation can reduce yield two ways: directly, through soybean plant damage, and indirectly, by moving the critical period of weed control forward -- from 20 days after emergence to 10 days.”

As you plant soybeans, think about soybean rust, since it has been found on kudzu in FL, GA, AL & LA. So far it has not been found on soybeans, but this is the earliest it has been found in some locations. The problem this year is the delayed planting of beans will keep them at risk of rust for a longer period of the growing season. Rust has been showing up throughout the Cornbelt, but usually too late to do any serious damage. Keep track of soybean rust.

Most farmers who investigated organic production were concerned about their income in the required transition period. USDA will provide up to $20,000 per farm to ease the conversion process. Program sign-up is underway at local NRCS offices through 5/29. Producers may also qualify under the EQIP program, which has larger funding limits.

Another cropping alternative is switchgrass production for biofuel, grazing, or wildlife/conservation. But how do you grow it? Drill or broadcast the seed, but do not cut or graze it during the establishment year, so its roots can develop. Weed management is an issue, and WI Extension has a factsheet on switchgrass cultivation along with a weed control guide.

The price went down and the weight went up on hogs while the “swine” flu was underway. MO Extension’s Glenn Grimes says producers held hogs back from the market and they gained 3.4 pounds in late April and 5.9 pounds in early May, compared to prior years. He says the ailment cut about a half billion dollars out of the hog market.

Expect more regulations on farming and food processing as the result of increasing globalization of agriculture. That is the forecast of IL Extension economist Bob Spitze who says our food supply now can originate from any field or processor on the planet, and carelessness at a peanut processor affected the whole world almost immediately. The Emeritus professor says those interconnections focus attention on quality and safety.

Farmers who were unpaid after delivering corn to VeraSun Energy, can file a proof of claim, says IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen. He says the deadline is May 25, or 30 days after a contract has been rejected. Follow his instructions, download the forms, and get the address.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:42 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

May 8, 2009

Extension Update

Soybean prices have climbed about $3.50 in the cash market reaching fall 2008 levels, while Chinese purchases of US soybeans outpace those of last year. China has bought more than 600 mil. bu. of US beans, which IL Extension’s Darrel Good says surpasses 2008 purchases by 189 mil. bu. Currently, China has purchased 60% of US bean exports. Read more.

Soybean exports are outpacing the domestic use says Good. USDA had projected 1.21 bil. bu. in soybean exports this year, and the current total is near 1.05 bil. bu. Good says the pace of the crush remains slow, but with the brisk export business, soybean ending stocks could drop below the current estimate of 165 mil. bu. He says that is helping push old crop bean prices above $11 and new crop bean prices toward $10.

On the other hand, the corn market is “anemic” in comparison to beans, says Good. Corn exports have been healthy, and only minimal amounts need to be sold for the balance of the year to reach USDA’s 1.7 bil bu. projection. However, the slower use of corn for livestock feed and ethanol production may keep ending stocks near 1.7 bil. bu. Good says planting delays have not had a substantial impact on corn prices.

If you are pricing grain, Good says use the spring revenue insurance guarantees as your base, which means new crop soybean prices have a $1 premium and new crop corn prices are offering a 25¢ premium over the crop insurance spring guarantees.

Volatility in grain markets is expected by marketing specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. He says weather conditions, biofuels policies, and the H1N1 flu outbreak will contribute to continued market volatility. Regarding biofuels, he says watch ethanol news:
1) CA’s new fuel standard is unfriendly to ethanol due to criticism of corn production.
2) US EPA has proposed a new fuel standard with specific greenhouse gas limits.
3) EPA has accepted input on the proposal to increase ethanol from 10% to 15% blend.

When the lean hog contract caught the H1N1 flu, May contracts fell from over $70 on April 24 to $58 on May 1, and down to $55 when a human infected some Canadian hogs. IA Extension’s Shane Ellis says the basis tightened from $6 to $1 in that time. He expects markets to recover, but the summer rally will be delayed for a few weeks.

If you sign up for ACRE, FSA offices will require historical farm yield information. At this time, USDA has not released the rules on what documents are required, and what happens if you don’t have them, says IL Extension economist Nick Paulson. Those rules may come soon, since the announced sign-up period for ACRE begins on June 1.

Planting delays may shift your preference to soybeans says IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger. Using a $4 corn price and $11 soybean price, he says, “By May 10, gross income from corn is being lost at the rate of $4.93/A for each day of delay, while beans are losing only $1.80 (northern IL) and 16¢/A (southern IL) per day of delay. By May 30, corn is losing about $9.15 per day of planting delay while soybeans lose $4.78 and $3.92 in northern and southern IL, respectively. As expected, the loss in gross income as soybean planting is delayed stays well behind that of corn throughout May, and this difference widens in June.” Read more.

Nafziger says, “While planting delays mean faster loss of yield and gross income from corn compared to soybean, the date at which planting soybeans will be more profitable than planting corn depends on expected net incomes for the two crops.”

If looking for shorter season seed corn, OH Extension agronomists urge you to move slowly on that concept. “Don't worry about switching hybrid maturities unless planting is delayed to late May. If planting is possible before May 20, plant full season hybrids first to allow them to exploit the growing season more fully. Research in Ohio and other Cornbelt states generally indicates that earlier maturity hybrids lose less yield potential with late plantings than the later maturing, full season hybrids.”

If higher soybean seed costs have caused you to consider reducing your seeding rate, keep in mid that soybean plants compensate well to low stands by adjusting pod and seed number per plant and expanding their growth to make a canopy that suppresses weeds, says IL Extension’s Vince Davis. Read more.

Seed beans with many biotech traits will cost between 15¢ and 45¢ per 1,000 seeds for most farmers, says Davis. “Economically optimum seeding rates fluctuated by 26,000 seeds per acre in that seed price range. From this research trial, optimum rates in the range of 25¢ to 45¢ per 1,000 seeds would have been between 100,000 and 129,000 seeds per acre. This is much lower than current recommendations for 30-inch rows in Illinois, and a little lower than I would be comfortable recommending.”

If planting soybeans late, consider your equipment, says OSU agronomist Jim Beuerline. He says the later planting is accomplished, the greater the response to narrow rows and increased seeding rates. And he adds, “If you are tempted to use the corn planter to punch in a lot of acres fast, keep in mind that thirty-inch row beans planted May 10 will produce less yield than drilled beans planted two weeks later. The goal is to attain rapid canopy closure and maximize sunlight collection.”

With corn coming up (in some states), the accumulation of heat units, and the collection of black cutworm moths being recorded, Purdue entomologists are predicting black cutworm larvae will begin cutting seedlings on May 10, if corn is present where they hatch. They say cutworms can be managed effectively with scouting and insecticides.

Young corn looks tasty to black cutworm larvae, so scouting should include looking for pinholes in corn seedlings. IL Extension’s Jim Morrison says, “Cut, missing, or wilted corn plants are typical symptoms of black cutworm larvae damage. Feeding mainly at night, larvae will move up the row as they feed. On average, one larva may cut 3-4 plants in its lifetime.” He says treat when 3-5% of the plants are cut and larvae are present.

Iowa may have escaped a bean leaf beetle problem this year because of winter weather conditions, says entomologist Erin Hodgson. The predicted mortality is due to “an exceptionally harsh winter” and models indicated 99% of the bean leaf beetles bit the dust across the northern third of Iowa and 75% across the southern third of Iowa.

Both bad and good bugs may be in your wheat, and it is your assignment to know the predators from the bad bugs. A good balance could prevent the cost of an insecticide treatment, which would kill both the friends and the foes. Check the economic thresholds before spraying. Read more.

The bugs are not winning, but two noted Extension entomologists have departed from their university research positions to take similar positions in the corporate world. Marlin Edwards at Iowa State University shifted his focus earlier this year to Pioneer and now Kevin Steffey at the University of Illinois will be headed to Dow AgroSciences.

Unplanted fields that are “wooly” with weeds will need pre-plant attention before seeding, and depending on your weed crop, different tactics may be necessary. IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says tillage may not be sufficient to clear the field, if weeds ball up in a cultivator, or some weeds escape being cut off and re-grow. Consider:
1) Glyphosate and other translocation herbicides need time to work before tillage.
2) Don’t till soon after spraying growth regulators or it will impact your seedlings.
3) Contact herbicides may begin impacting weeds quicker than translocators.
4) Burndown herbicides can be mixed with soil-residual herbicides, but any subsequent tillage may not provide the most desirable distribution of the chemical in the soil.

If you do tank mix a burndown and residual herbicide, OH Extension’s Mark Loux says, “Where weeds are large, the inclusion of residual herbicides (or application in 28%) can reduce the activity of glyphosate and the weed control. This can be compensated for somewhat by increasing the glyphosate rate.” Read more.

Planting corn without an herbicide application is possible according to Ohio State agronomists. Instead of delaying the required time after applying the herbicide, Mark Loux says forge ahead and plant. “Reconsider applying pre-emergence herbicides where it’s unlikely to rain before the weeds emerge (you can check by digging down to see what the weeds are doing), and consider switching to an early post-emergence approach. The good news here is that most pre-emergence corn herbicides can be applied to emerged corn, and some of them have enough foliar activity to control small, emerged weeds without the need to include post-emergence herbicides.” Read more.

Weeds of every specie are coming up in many Cornbelt fields where soils have been perfect for weeds, but unwelcoming for tillage, sprayers, and certainly planters. Purdue weed specialists suggest a two-fold approach to clearing fields that are quite weedy.
1) Use glyphosate + 2,4-D or 2,4-D + paraquat + Sencor (beans) or atrazine (corn) if you desire more rapid desiccation of weed biomass. In the glyphosate-based program, use the 1.5 lb ae/A rate with 1 pt/A of 2,4-D. Most labels require you to wait 7 days before planting corn or soybean with this rate of 2,4-D.
2) In the paraquat-based program, use the upper end of the rate range for more effective control of large weeds. But be prepared for re-growth if weather remains wet and cool.

Control thistles in the first of their 2-year life cycle, which can be achieved with a herbicide application. Once the thistles sends up a spike in its second year, it will produce viable seeds, surviving your weed-killing spray. IL Extension’s Robert Bellm says a combination of low ground mowing followed by an herbicide works best.

If you applied nitrogen last fall, is it still there? IL Extension’s Fabian Fernandez says it depends on the time of application, soil temperature, and whether the soil has been saturated, which would reduce bacterial activity. So there is no quick answer. But check his calculations to estimate your loss. Read more.

If you need to apply more nitrogen, Fernandez says, “If the field is already planted, the best way to apply the additional N would be, 1) injected anhydrous ammonia or UAN solutions, 2) broadcast ammoniated products (ammonium nitrate or ammonium sulfate), 3) broadcast urea, 4) UAN solution dribbled between rows, and 5) broadcast UAN solution. If you have not planted your field yet, plant now and apply additional N later.

But what about P & K? Crop requirements for P and K can often be met with starter applications placed in bands two inches to the side and two inches below the seed, say OH agronomists. “Application of P and K is only necessary with the starter if they are deficient in the soil, and the greatest probability of yield response from P and K starter is in a no-till situation.” They say the longer planting is delayed the less benefit received from a P & K starter, because at later planting dates soil temperatures are higher (this is not necessarily true for no-till soils and that is why they are more likely to be responsive).

Diesel prices will continue to be under 2008 prices through November 2009. KS State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter calculates that diesel prices will be about 54% less than they were last year for much of the summer, then the price difference narrows, because of falling prices late in 2008, not because of price increases he expects in 2009.

Four stomachs and at least 22,000 genes. That is what makes a cow a cow, and now researchers have mapped the bovine genome. “"Having the genome sequence is now the window to understanding how (a cow works), how ruminants ended up with four stomachs instead of one, how the cow's immune system operates and how it is able to secrete large amounts of protein in its milk," says IL researcher Harris Lewin.

It is not your 120’ Deere planter, and it is not your great-grandfather’s wooden single seed corn planter he pushed in the ground with his foot. But a new invention by Univ. of IL ag engineering students will allow farmers in Africa and other developing countries to plant corn with a device that jabs into the ground and deposits a seed where farming equipment is completely absent. The hand held corn planters have been tested and will be manufactured and distributed with funds from the Howard Buffet Foundation.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:18 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink

May 1, 2009

Extension Update

Like pork, grain markets have caught swine flu, says IL Extension’s Darrel Good, who blames sharp declines in corn, bean, and wheat markets on false perceptions. He says, “The extent of reported cases of swine flu will be important in determining the depth of demand worries.” Read more.

In his weekly newsletter, Good cites other fundamentals influencing crop prices:
1) The domestic soybean crush is 10% less than last year, right at USDA forecasts.
2) Robust Chinese soybean purchases may push exports beyond USDA forecasts.
3) Corn exports have surpassed 1 bil. bu., and USDA projections may be reachable.
4) California fuel policies are changing, which would restrict ethanol consumption.
5) Despite slow planting and more forecasts for rain, there is little market concern.

Your marketing plan should accommodate another year of price volatility says Darrel Good. He says pricing the new crop “can still be anchored to the spring price guarantees of crop revenue insurance.” And spikes above that level may trigger small sales.

The market is anticipating a switch from corn to soybeans, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. He says low ending stocks, poor South American yields, and Chinese demand has pushed old crop futures above $10, but the new crops remains a dollar less. He says recent higher prices for corn and wheat has encouraged those to be planted if possible.

If switching crops is in your plans IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says the decision is complicated because of recent price moves of both corn and beans. He suggests reading his April 10 newsletter, and basing any decision to switch from corn to beans on costs and expected yields for a given date. If considering staying with corn, but switching to an earlier hybrid, Nafziger discourages that because most hybrids have a Growing Degree Day cushion and can be planted later.

If you tend to mope about planting delayed by the weather, crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says just hope 2009 turns out like 2008. He says IL ag economists say April rains, even slightly above average, have a positive impact on yield. He says it is not the case for dry Aprils to have good yields and wet Aprils to have poor yields from delays. But Nafziger says, “A wet April that turns into a wet May could well be another story.”

Nafziger offers some quick guidance to consider if your planting is delayed by weather:
1) Planting should take priority over operations like N application.
2) Apply N, only if planting is not delayed, and soils are not compacted while doing that.
3) Planting into warm soils means that crops emerge faster and more uniformly.
4) Growing Degree Days are only average, so early planted crops have emerged slowly.

Watch Monday’s crop condition report from USDA for any improvement on the 2009 wheat crop. KS Extension’s Mike Woolverton says 73% of TX wheat is poor to very poor, and only 11% good to excellent. In OK, 64% of the wheat is poor to very poor, 9% was good and 0% excellent. Central KS wheat has been hurt by freezing temperatures.

No-till fields are pretty, but the last thing you want is a flower garden. Effective control depends on identification of the weeds you are cultivating, and these pictures can help.
1) Pest Management Bulletin
2) Early Spring Weeds

Weeds #1. Wet soils in the Cornbelt have hampered planting, but benefited weed growth. While priorities are on planting, IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says, “Existing weed vegetation should be controlled before planting by utilizing tillage, herbicides, or a combination of tactics so the corn can become established under weed-free conditions.”

Weeds #2. Some winter annual weed species are beginning to flower, but others are setting seed. While applying herbicides to species already making seed may not appreciably reduce seed production, species in the early stages of flowering should be controlled soon to prevent seed production and addition to the soil seed bank.

Weeds #3. If using 2,4-D for a burndown application, several ester formulations allow pre-plant applications without a specified interval, but others require 7 days. Some also indicate that tillage should not be performed for at least 7 days after application. Beware.

Weeds #4. Cool temperatures can slow the activity of many herbicides, both contact and translocation varieties. Contact herbicides may not be affected as much by coolness. When the forecast calls for several nights of cool air, symptoms of herbicide activity on weeds may develop sooner with a contact herbicide than with a translocated herbicide.

Rewind back to 2008 to address black cutworm issues. 2009 is a carbon copy with late planting, a heavy infestation, and timing that is perfect for the cutworms. IL Extension’s Kevin Steffey says seed treatments such as Cruiser and Poncho and transgenic traits to control caterpillars will prevent black cutworm injury, but not if infestations are heavy. For late planting advice on insects, read this.

Black cutworm moths arrive at your farm by chance. Purdue entomologists say the moths use their minute energy to fly straight up. “Once in the jetstream, they are often caught up in wind currents in southern regions of the United States and carried to the Midwest. They are then deposited back to ground level by spring storms. Predicting the location and intensity of a spring thunderstorm is difficult,” (and infestations, as well.)

The Purdue bug gurus say, “In predicting insect infestations, timing is everything. There are other variables to consider, but timing of when and how all these factors (migration, food availability, development temps) “collide” ultimately determines the infestation.” They say Mother Nature usually wins out over preventative treatments.

When should cutworm treatment be applied? Iowa State’s Jon Tollefson says, “The economic threshold for black cutworms is: 1) When larvae average less than ¾ inch in length, an insecticide should be considered if 2-3% of the plants are wilted or cut; 2) If cutworms are longer, treatment should be applied if 5% of the plants are cut, and 3) If the field has a poor plant population, (20,000 or less) these thresholds should be lowered.”

Do you apply insecticide for cutworms, while applying herbicide? IA Extension’s Jon Tollefson says no, “If you are planting 1,000 acres of corn and, based on past experience, it is probable that you will have 10% infested with cutworms. If you purchase insecticide at $4 per acre and treat all of the fields, the cost would be $4000. If you scouted the fields and treated the 10% infested, assuming there is a treatment cost for the insecticide and its application of $12 per acre, the cost to you would be only $1200.”

Should seed beans be inoculated? IA Agronomist Palle Pederson says not unless:
1) The field has not been seeded with beans in the last 3-5 years, the soil pH is below 6.0, there is low organic matter in the soil, or the field has been flooded for more than a week.
2) The field was flooded for an extended period in 2008 and soybeans were injured or died. A field with such anaerobic conditions last year may have reduced soil bacteria.

Avoid continuous soybeans, but IA Extension’s Palle Pederson says it is OK to plant them in 2 successive years, if just returning to a normal crop rotation. But ask yourself:
1) What would a soil test say about the K level, since beans remove more than corn?
2) Were there any soybean diseases in 2008 that would require resistant seed in 2009?

Corkscrew corn seedlings indicate an emergence problem. While it usually ends in death of the seedling, Purdue’s Bob Nielsen says it is a rare occurrence, but can be attributed to dense soil, and even from compaction during planting. Read more.

Crusted soils after a heavy rain can be an impediment to corn and bean seedlings trying to emerge. Iowa State soil specialists recommend judicious use of a rotary hoe:
1) Soil surface moisture should allow the soil to crumple in your hand with moisture left.
2) Hoe at speeds 8 to 10 miles per hour unless safety is a concern.
3) Ensure both cotyledons of the soybean seedling are not being broken off by the hoe.
4) A 1-2% stand loss in corn is acceptable, since a crusted soil would have been worse.
5) If the loss rises to 3-5%, then slow the tractor speed to become less aggressive.

Although the public wants protection from hogs they believe created swine flu, pork producers should take precautions to protect their stock from flu spread by the public. MO Extension veterinarian Beth Young provided suggestions for on-farm protection:
1) Use NPPC standards to reduce transmission of virus between pigs and people.
2) Ensure ventilation systems in hog barns are in good working order or upgrade them.
3) Seal facilities to prevent any type of birds from entering which can introduce a virus.
4) Store feed in closed containers to prevent contamination from any bird feces.
5) Vaccinate pigs for swine influenza to reduce animal and human exposure.
6) Vaccinate swine farm workers and their families to protect them and your herd.
7) Provide workers with clothing and boots worn only while working around animals.

Stu Ellis

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April 24, 2009

Extension Update

If you have not noticed, USDA’s adjustments in its soybean use projections will have an impact on the ACRE program. Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the cut in carryout stocks to 165 mil. bu. and USDA’s raising of the average seasonal price to a $9.35 to $9.95 range were important, “This has ACRE implications, the higher the 2008-09 average weighted price, the higher the odds of ACRE paying off, other things equal.” Read his latest newsletter.

Hilker’s analysis of the soybean market includes the declining production in Argentina and Paraguay, leading to a world crop that is 165 mil. bu. smaller and fewer ending stocks. He says, “The disagreement between farmers and the government over several issues, such as an export tax and drought aid, has slowed the pace of exports.” And Hilker says since Argentina has threefold the stocks held by the US, our exports could change, and he adds, “Keep an eye on old crop soybean prices as we go through harvest, i.e., consider being ready to sell on a further rally if you are still holding 2008 soybeans.”

“In spite of poor world economic conditions, the USDA projects increased world use of wheat, corn and other feed grains over previous years,” says marketing specialist Melvin Brees at MO Extension. “The surprisingly strong demand along with reduced corn and wheat acreage intentions for 2009, dry conditions in the southern plains, the extent of freeze damage to wheat, planting delays for spring wheat, and wet Corn Belt conditions with possible planting delays make a case for higher price potential.”

“Managing risk is essential,” says Brees, because high price is hard to define, and farmers should plan to capture profits, rather than hold out for higher prices. Read more.
1) If the bean uptrend is broken, sell, or just below chart support at $9 Nov futures.
2) If the bean trend holds, watch for new crop prices near the Jan. highs of $10.50.
3) If Dec corn prices fall below support at $4, add to sales to protect a small margin.
4) If Dec corn moves above $4.40, delay any sales and raise the sale stop levels.

What marketing tools do you use? Brees says that is a hard question to answer:
1) With a normal growing season, new crop cash contracts offer profit margins.
2) Cash forward contracts will protect profits on crops sold at his suggested levels.
3) Futures hedges would accomplish the same, if you can afford the margins.
4) At-the-money options are expensive and would wipe out profit margins.
5) Lower out-of-the-money options are cheaper, but would not protect price levels.
6) Option spread strategies, such as fences and bear spreads, could be effective.
7) Any futures or option strategy should only be used if you are aware of the risk.

Ethanol plant closures continue, along with reductions in production. Iowa State’s Roger McEowen reports 37 of the 193 US ethanol plants are out of business, 23 of them built since 2005. He says that represents 19% of the plants and 18% of production capacity, totaling 2.2 bil. gal. Read more.

It may surprise you, but the stock market and the finished cattle market are nearly in lock-step with a 90% correlation, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. That is because both are driven by the general economy and macro economic conditions that reflect weak demand. Read more.

Chris Hurt says retail beef prices have not dropped along with producer prices, and that indicates producers are paying more, beef processing margins have increased, and retailer margins are even 13% more than they were early last year. He’s expecting finished cattle prices in the mid-$80 for the second quarter and a couple dollars higher this summer.

Cattle prices will increase over time, as the herd continues to shrink, exports improve, and the world economy grows. Purdue’s Chris Hurt says while beef has suffered, it has the potential to have one of the most dramatic positive responses when normalcy returns.

But the feeder cattle sector is expanding according to the latest USDA Cattle On Feed report. March fed cattle marketings were down 0.8% and placements were up 3.8%. But the April inventory was not down as much as it was in March, so Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the cattle feeding sector is rebuilding inventory. He says with moderating feed prices there are signs the fed cattle market may surpass $90/cwt, with higher futures.

“As seed prices increase, return to seed decreases. The best net returns occur with plant populations between 30,000 and 35,000 ppa,” say Iowa State agronomists. They note that not every seed germinates and 4-7% will fail to survive, so increasing seeding rates by 5% will ensure that proper plant population is achieved, but will sometimes vary. They say maximum grain yields occur between 34,500 and 37,000 per acre. Read more.

Emerging corn greeted with cold rain, melting snow, freezing rain, and any form of cold precipitation could show “imbibitional chilling injury,” say OSU agronomists. They said that was the case in 2005, but 2009 has been mild in comparison, and your corn is OK.

To assess potential freeze damage, check corn plants 5 days after freezing temperatures, if warmer temperatures have occurred. Look for new leaf tissue in the whorl, or look for the growing point just below the soil surface. If it is white, the prognosis is good.

If corn is germinating in cold, wet soil that is a prescription for seedling blights. Under normal conditions plants may continue to grow, but when other injuries occur, new roots cannot develop, and pythium or other fungi can kill corn seedlings that are stressed. Seed treatment and fungicide efficacy can be shortened, if saturated soil conditions persist.

In the sweep net, Extension bug folks are finding quite a few critters to watch:
1) There have been enough degree-days for alfalfa weevil in Cen. IL & IN, & So. IA.
2) Black cutworms will soon be feeding on weeds, awaiting corn seedlings.
3) Several varieties of aphids are in wheat, many of which transmit BYD disease.
4) Legions of armyworm moths are being found in KY & MO laying eggs, especially in thick stands of wheat, so prepare rescue treatments for thick stands before thin stands.

On the issue of alfalfa weevil, entomologists in the 3-I states are discussing them in their weekly newsletters. IN Extension specialists suggest scout fields in an M-shaped pattern, examining 10 stems in each of five areas of the field. Check the stems for problems:
1) Evidence of tip feeding by alfalfa weevil larvae; such as pinholes.
2) Maturity of the stem, i.e. pre-bud, bud and/or flowers;
3) Stem length and the average size of the weevil larvae.
4) Early season weevil problems can be treated with an insecticide with residual action.
5) Late season weevil problems should be addressed with short residual insecticides.

Ohio soybean growers are being warned about a potential aphid onslaught, based on 2008 collections of aphids in traps. OSU entomologists put an asterisk on the warning and said they did not find any colonies or eggs on the few buckthorn plants sampled.

Pay attention to what you are applying in the sprayer. Long days mean errors, and IL Extension’s Aaron Hager says some chemicals with similar names have very dissimilar formulations. He used the example of Balance Pro, which must be applied before corn emergence, and Balance Flexx, is applied after emergence. Consult his list of potential confusion chemicals.

Safety is first and last, says IA Extension’s Mark Hanna, even though wet, cold weather has delayed field work. He says if you feel rushed, you need to still beware of dangers:
1) Mechanically lock or block your planter or tillage equipment before getting under it.
2) Leather gloves prevent cuts and rubber gloves prevent chemical flesh burns.
3) Avoid planting fast to allow seed metering, depth control, and furrow closers to work.
4) While applying ammonia, use rubber gloves, unvented goggles, and water bottle.

Increases in soil compaction are being reported as farm and construction machinery get heavier. WI Extension’s Dick Wolkowski says that pressure impacts bulk density, porosity, aggregation, and drainage, but affects different soils in different ways. He says compaction creates a denser, less porous soil, slowing down gas exchange and keeping oxygen away from root systems. He says saturation only worsens the problem.

How do you address compacted soil? Wisconsin’s Wolkowski ways one suggestion is deep tillage, using a subsoiler with an L-shaped leg to lift the soil. He says the soil will loosen, but will not be restored to the point of having root and earthworm holes. The best advice is to avoid compaction in the first place, and stay off the soil or on one track. He says MN researchers have found compaction remaining from 1880’s covered wagons.

Deep patches of cornstalks may indicate the need for some soil conservation repair in the eyes of IL Extension’s John Church. He says waterways have deep gullies next to them, preventing water from entering the grassed area, and that is only going to worsen. He says check “small breaks in the sod, dead sod, small water channels, tillage damage to edges, flow restrictions, and other problems that could cause a waterway failure.”

With the soil full of moisture, warm temperatures will boost pasture growth, possibly ahead of livestock being able to keep it clipped and prevent seed head formation. MO forage specialist Rob Kallenbach says once a plant sets seeds, it stops growing leaves, and the secret to pasture management is to keep the forage in the vegetative stage. He says divide pastures into paddocks, and use some for hay harvest if you get behind.

Sudden Death Syndrome was prevalent in 2007 and rotated fields will be back in soybean production again this year. IA Extension’s X. B. Yang says soybean seedlings acquire SDS infection at the point of germination, and if the soil is cold and wet, they will be there longer and more likely to contact the SDS pathogens. Yang recommends later planting and says soybeans planted after May 15 rarely exhibit SDS symptoms.

Although it has caused insignificant damage, the “book” on soybean rust has yet to be written says KY Extension’s Don Hershman, and it “could be a big mistake” for farmers to believe that it will never be a serious problem. He says 20 years from now it might have been seen as “a flash in the pan,” but could also be seen as something that was a significant production factor a time or two during that 20-year period.

Soybean rust has successfully overwintered in Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana for the first time since its arrival on US soil, says Don Hershman at the University of Kentucky. He says it can be found on low levels on kudzu, within warm, moist conditions it likes. He says the determining factor will be the weather conditions over the next two months. To keep apprised of soybean rust, watch the official website.

Stu Ellis

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April 17, 2009

Extension Update

Will rationing be required? That is the question rhetorically asked by IL Extension’s Darrel Good in his latest newsletter. “Prospects for small year-ending stocks of soybeans and declining inventories of corn during the 2009-10 marketing year means that a generally favorable 2009 growing season will be needed to avoid rationing of use next year.” Read it here.

Darrel Good says, “For both corn and soybeans, the timing and extent of US and world economic recovery will be important in determining the strength of demand and the level of consumption.” And he adds, “With so much riding on the size of the 2009 crops, prices could well trade in a wide range over the next few months.”

If you feel financially nervous, IL Extension’s Nick Paulson knows why. He says farmers have twice as much money at risk due to higher volatility in the market:
1) The ag economy faces a different set of challenges than the national economy.
2) The national economic challenge is the availability or lack of credit.
3) The ag economy is challenged by higher production costs and commodity prices.
4) Government programs that once were a safety net are undermined by market volatility.
5) Farm programs no longer guarantee breakeven prices, or anything close to breakeven.
6) It will become increasingly important to lock in input costs when they are favorable.
7) With price volatility, it is crucial to control any possible cost of production.

It may be too late for this year, but fertilizer prices have fallen says NE Extension’s Gary Hergert. His data is in the NE Cropwatch newsletter.
1) Natural gas is cheaper and Yara, Mosaic, and Agrium have restarted ammonia plants.
2) World market urea and f.o.b. Gulf prices are now down to $310 per ton.
3) Anhydrous ammonia prices f.o.b. Cornbelt are currently around $550 per ton.
4) International tenders for 32-0-0 (UAN) are under $200 per ton.
5) DAP and MAP has fallen from $1,000 highs to nearly $200 per ton f.o.b. Florida.

You are applying ammonia based on a return to nitrogen, how about basing your corn population on a return to seed? That is the suggestion of IL Extension’s Mike Roegge who says using a seed cost of $2 per thousand or $160 per 80,000 kernel unit, the economic advantage is at 35,000 population when the price of corn is $4 per bu. He says if the seed is $3 per thousand or $240 per bag, the advantage goes to 30,000 population.

If you did not apply P & K last fall because you ran out of time and weather, should you do it now? IL Extension’s Fabian Fernandez says a soil test will be a critical tool in making a decision. He says if the field needs it, but the budget is not there, apply at least a portion instead of none. As an alternative, apply nutrients as a form of starter fertilizer.

Storm fronts blow through, and they drop out of the sky. Not raindrops, but black cutworm moths, ready to lay eggs on winter annuals. IL Extension entomologists say the eggs will hatch when the growing degree days reach 300 with a base temperature of 50. That means mid-May is the primary scouting time for the central part of the Cornbelt.

Corn and soybeans are among the black cutworm’s least favorite foods, say Purdue entomologists, who add, “It just so happens that these are the only plants remaining by the time larvae have emerged and weeds have been killed. Research has shown that cutworm larvae starve if weeds are treated with tillage or herbicide 2-3 weeks before crop emergence – an example of a case when controlling weeds can help manage insect pests.”

Farmer minds are being changed about weed control, as the result of increased weed resistance to glyphosate. Aaron Hager’s IL Extension survey found only 28% of farmers were using only glyphosate for soybeans, compared to 80% during the early days of Roundup Ready beans. Additionally 91% of 877 farmers surveyed believe that weeds becoming glyphosate resistant will change weed management in the next 5 years.

“Mudding in” a crop early to avoid planting late will almost always end up being an unwise decision, says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, and so he says don’t succumb to fear mongering of delayed planting. (He says you have the machinery to catch up.) Nielsen says planting date is one of many “yield influencing factors” (YIF), and he adds, “It is possible for early-planted corn in one year to yield more than, less than, or equal to later-planted corn in another year depending on the exact mix of YIFs for each year.”

Test question: Are compacted soils better resolved with deep tillage or no-till? Ohio Extension’s Randall Reeder says yields will recover better in compacted soils with continuous no-till than deep tillage. Compacted with a 600 bu. grain cart, Reeder said soils had a 15% corn yield reduction when sub-soiled annually for 6 years, versus only a 9% reduction with no-till. For soybeans, the declines were 24% and 13%, respectively.

If seed beans are still on your shopping list, consult the variety testing results conducted by Extension agronomists in your state. The IL specialists report the beans in maturity group 2 had a 33.3 bu. yield span and group 3 had a 27.7 bu. yield span. Agronomist Vince Davis says a few good hours selecting seed is time well spent.

To treat, or not to treat, that is the question about soybean fungicides, and Iowa State Extension’s X. B. Yang says only 3% of seed was treated 10 years ago, but 50% of it is today, and the driving forces may be the cost of soybean seed and early spring planting. He says treatments can be beneficial in fields where there is an increased risk of soybean seedling diseases, particularly for Ohio soybean growers preventing phytophthora.

To make a decision on soybean fungicide, Iowa State’s X. B. Yang says do it when:
1) Seed quality is poor like last year, but this year soybean seed quality is much better.
2) Fields have phythphthora or pythium, the spring is wet and cool, & planting is early.
3) Replanting is one case where fungicide treatments are recommended for a good stand.
4) Early planting is not a reason for treatment, unless planting conditions are poor.

In addition to those recommendations, MO Extension’s Laura Sweets, says use a fungicide treatment if you have a concern the seed is infested with a seed-borne disease, or if the variety being planted is a high yielding variety that is disease-susceptible.

Stewart’s Wilt is caused by a bacteria carried by flea beetles, and can cause havoc in sweet corn fields, while many commercial hybrids carry resistance. The determinant of whether it will be a problem is if temperatures and snow cover allowed the flea beetles to survive. In parts of the Midwest winter temperatures averaged less than 24 degrees, and that indicates reduced survival and fewer problems with Stewart’s Wilt. If your winter was warmer, Gaucho and Cruiser have reduced the problem 50% to 85% in sweetcorn.

Do lower rates of pelletized lime equal higher rates of ag lime? Ohio Extension specialists say the comparison is total neutralizing power, fineness, and moisture, and they add, “Just because you needed twice as much ag-lime as pelletized lime does not necessarily make pelletized lime the best choice based on cost, especially when pelletized lime can cost 5-7 times more per ton than ag lime. More.

Farmers across the northern Cornbelt should be close to planting oats, if they have not already. IL Extension’s Jim Morrison says his colleagues in Iowa report yield drops of 10% per week after April 15, and his colleagues in Wisconsin say yields drop nearly 20% by May 14. IL Extension specialists encourage a fungicide seed treatment for oats.

For oat drilling, seed 2-3 bu. per acre or 30 seeds per square foot. For broadcasting oats, increase the rate by 1/2 to 1 bu. per acre. If the oats are planted with alfalfa, seed only 1 to 1.5 bu. per acre. Your fertility program depends upon your yield, and Morrison says oats remove about .38 lbs. of phosphate per bu. and.20 lbs. of potash per bu.

If you farm in Ohio, there is a 55% chance you are using at least one piece of precision farming equipment. OSU economist Marvin Batte says adoption rates have increased 27% since 1999, but adoption depends on farm size, sales, and types of crops produced. Lime and phosphorous variable rate application netted the greatest benefits.

Pork producers: Are you really reducing the breeding herd? MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say gilt slaughter has been running high, but sow slaughter is 12% less than this time in 2008. They report that breeding stock from Canada is down 16.5% from last year, probably due to the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) law. All in all, they do not believe the breeding herd is changing very much, if any.

Regarding the beef market, Grimes and Plain report, “…a slowdown in the reduction of the dairy herd, which is a result of milk prices substantially less than cost of production. Why the slowdown is occurring is not clear. The beef cow slaughter indicates beef producers have slowed the decline in the herd if not stopped it. Additional reductions in both the dairy and beef industries are required to get prices at profitable levels.”

Stu Ellis

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April 10, 2009

Extension Update

Farm Program sign-up dates have been reset by USDA. Farmers wanting to participate in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program will be able to sign up as early as April 27, but no later than August 14. Participants forego 20% of direct and counter-cyclical payments and 30% of marketing loan benefits. Once a producer signs CCC-509 to enter the ACRE program, that is an irrevocable decision through crop year 2012.

Even though ACRE sign-up begins on April 27, Michigan State marketing specialist Jim Hilker says wait until the deadline to turn in your paperwork. He says fill out all of the necessary documents over the summer, but don’t sign it and turn it in until August 14. Read his rationale at his newsletter.
1) You will know the 2008-2009 average crop price within pennies.
2) The August Crop Report on Aug. 12 will give a good idea of the US crop situation.
3) You will know the likely 2009-2010 US prices and your state yield outlook.

USDA’s Supply-Demand Report bolstered interest in soybeans by reducing projections for the Argentine crop, raising US export forecasts, and lowering the old crop carryover 20 mil. bu. to 165 mil. Additionally, world ending-stocks were reduced from nearly 50 mmt to under 46 mmt. The average seasonal price was adjusted upward to $9.25-$10.05.

Corn usage projections were also moved upward by USDA on Thursday, with 50 mil. more bushels being fed, and a 40 mil. bu. cut in the carryover, which is now at 1.700 bil. An increase in world corn trade was also forecast which is expected to reduce the world corn ending-stocks. The average price range was raised 10 cents to $4.00 to $4.40. Find the full report.

The pork market has pluses and minuses says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt, who says hog prices should exceed costs in the second and third quarters of the year before turning downward next winter and spring. Hurt suggests that the pork industry continue to make cuts in the breeding herd to help the supply meet the demand. Read his newsletter.

The pluses in the pork market will help push market prices into the low $50 range.
1) Hog prices should soon increase into their typical seasonal patterns.
2) The breeding herd and farrowing numbers are smaller than had been expected.
3) Canadian export hogs will drop by 2.3 mil. due to high production costs in Canada.

The minuses in the pork market will push production costs toward $49 by summer.
1) Reduced plantings and grain stocks will result in high prices for corn and bean meal.
2) Pork exports will drop 14% or 700 mil. lbs. compared to 2008, with Chinese cutbacks.

Nitrogen application #1. Nitrogen prices have been fluctuating, and prices may be substantially different from one supplier to another. Based on the price per pound you pay for nitrogen and what you have forward contracted the corn to sell for, use the N rate calculator. The nitrogen rate calculator will accommodate producers in IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, & WI.

Nitrogen application #2. IL Extension specialists caution against applying ammonia under the row shortly before planting as well as applying an N solution close to germinating seeds. If applied in strip till, seedlings can be burned if the soil dries out. They recommend use of GPS or assisted steering to apply N between the rows.

Nitrogen application #3. The most efficient application is when the corn plant is ready to use the nitrogen, which decreases loss. The Extension specialists say, “Claims that some forms of N are "more available" than others, or that the plants "prefer" some forms, are often shaky.” Read more.

If you want uniform corn emergence, OSU Extension provides tips on corn planters:
1. Keep the planting speed within the range specified in the planter's manual.
2. Match the seed grade with the planter plate.
3. Check planters with finger pickups for wear on the back plate and brush.
4. Check for wear on double-disc openers and seed tubes.
5. Make sure the sprocket settings on the planter transmission are correct.
6. Check for worn chains, stiff chain links, and improper tire pressure.
7. Make sure seed drop tubes are clean and clear of any obstructions.
8. Clean seed tube sensors if a planter monitor is being used.
9. Make sure coulters and disc openers are aligned.
10. Match the air pressure to the weight of the seed being planted.
11. Follow lubricant recommendations when using seed-applied insecticides

82% of IL Bt corn was planted in 2008 with a refuge, according to an Extension survey of producers. But entomologists say that means 18% was not, and they are concerned that thousands of corn acres without a refuge will hasten insect resistance, not only to Bt toxins, but also to the accompanying seed treatments for many secondary insects.

Spring weather has not been bad, but less than ideal for corn planting, says Extension’s Emerson Nafziger. However, he says March corn may have suffered from freezing, light snow, and may not have enough reserves to survive. That means potential replanting. Looking at optimum planting dates from 2005-2008, maximum yields resulted from April 9 corn planting in northern and southern IL, and April 19 in central IL.

What about delayed planting? Nafziger says, “Delays in planting until past the end of April, though they cost some yield, do not automatically mean large yield losses. Planting even two or three weeks after the optimum date might well produce higher yields than planting into cool, wet, compacted soils closer to, or before, the optimum date.” Read his weekly newsletter.

Rosettes at this time of year are not state fair ribbons but horseweeds (marestail) popping up in no-till fields, and IA Extension’s Bob Hartzler says the best time to control them and other winter annuals is as soon as you can get into the field. The more mature they are the more expensive they are to control, and may go to seed before a burndown.

Hartzler says adding a residual herbicide with a burndown treatment should give a clean seedbed, and may free you up from having to apply a herbicide at planting. He adds, “It is unrealistic under most situations to expect a pre-emergence herbicide applied several weeks prior to planting to provide full-season control. However, if properly selected for the weeds present in the field, the early application should allow the post-emergence application to be delayed long enough to require only a single post application.”

A timely application of an herbicide to wheat includes weather, according to IL weed specialist Aaron Hager, “Applications made to actively growing weeds and during periods of warm air temperatures generally provide more effective and complete weed control as compared with applications made during cold, cloudy conditions.”

Hager also warns against automatically applying an herbicide with liquid nitrogen. He says read the label, because, “Not all herbicides allow applications with liquid nitrogen as the carrier, and those that do might have specific recommendations with respect to including or excluding other spray additives or their application rates.” Hager provides an application rate chart.

A fungicide treatment comes already applied to RR2Yield varieties from Monsanto, but what about its use on other varieties. IL Extension’s Carl Bradley recommends it for poor quality soybean seed to improve the stand uniformity, but not improve germination. He also says it provides brief protection from pythium, phytophthora, rhizoctonia, and fusarium, particularly if the beans are planted in April or early May or in cool, wet soil.

Soybean producers will want to vote during May on whether or not the Secretary of Agriculture should conduct a referendum on the soybean check-off program. Cast ballots at FSA offices between May 4 and May 29. Ballots can also mailed or faxed or obtained via the Internet. A referendum will be held if 10% of the 589,182 US soybean producers vote yes during May balloting.

“Surprisingly as it may be,” MO livestock economists say their beef demand index for Dec-Feb was up 3.4% from a year earlier. “We do not have the data to accurately separate beef demand for steaks and roasts from hamburger. We believe the strong demand is for hamburger. Cull-cow slaughter was up as well as imported beef for January. Most of the weakness in beef demand is at the white-tablecloth restaurants.”

Mark your calendar for the National Small Farms Conference, Sept. 15-17 in Springfield, IL. Topics include USDA assistance to small farms, alternative enterprises, building community support, sustainable farming systems, business management, energy. Register here.

Stu Ellis

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April 3, 2009

Extension Update

The Prospective Plantings Report was the headline this week, indicating 7.8 mil. fewer crop acres would be planted this year. The largest cutback was a 4.5 mil. acre drop in wheat, 75% of that in winter wheat. Other reductions were nearly 660,000 fewer cotton acres, nearly 450,000 fewer sunflower acres, and a 1.3 mil. acre cut in sorghum.

USDA projected corn acreage at 84.986 mil. which is about 1 mil. acres less than last year, with the bulk of the cutback in marginal corn ground on the fringe of the Cornbelt. IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says that will mean 77.786 mil. harvested acres, and with a 152.8 bu. trend yield, 2009 corn production should reach 11.862 bil. bu. He says that will sharply reduce stocks because ethanol production and exports should increase.

USDA projected soybean acreage at 76.024 mil. acres, which is 306,000 more acres than 2008, and points to 75 mil. harvested acres. Paired with a 41.6 bu. trend yield, the 2009 soybean production should be 3.12 bil. bu., up 160 mil. bu. from last year. Read Good’s analysis.

USDA also released the Quarterly Stocks report, which projected corn stocks at 6.958 bil. bu. Good says exports for the quarter were off 262 mil. bu., domestic use dropped only 31 mil. bu., since ethanol use was larger, and feed use of corn was down slightly. Soybean stocks were 1.302 bil., with crush down 47 mil., and exports up 50 mil. bu.

On-farm stocks of corn climbed 8% compared to last year and off-farm stocks dropped 7% observes IA St. marketing specialist Chad Hart. He said farmers are also holding more soybean stocks which are up 11% compared to year ago levels, and off-farm bean stocks are down 23% versus 2008. On-farm wheat stocks are up 205% from 2008.

Corn and bean acres have been on the increase in recent years, says IA Extension’s Hart, “In fact, the amount of “other” crop acreage, not including corn, soybeans, wheat, and hay, has dropped from 50 million acres in 2002 to less than 40 million acres projected for 2009. Much of that decline has hit the cotton industry. So while the overall crop base has been in decline, corn and soybean area has been able to increase.”

The large cut in crop acres was attributed by Hart to result from higher input costs, “Some can be attributed to weather events, such as lingering drought impacts in Texas and late harvesting of fall crops in the northern Great Plains. Double crop acreage is also likely to decline in 2009. But if weather conditions cooperate, and crop prices look attractive, then some of this lost acreage could be planted in 2009.” He says the trade is now pointing to season average prices of $4.10 for corn and $8.50 for soybeans. Read Chad Hart’s newsletter.

“Soybean surprise” is what Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. called the USDA planting intentions report, since the market was expecting 79.25 mil. acres, and he wonders if enough beans will be produced. He says stocks are 9% under last year, and with exports better than expected, ending stocks will be 6% of usage, below the pipeline supply.

Woolverton says South America will not make up the shortfall. “Southern Hemisphere harvest is just now reaching the drought-damaged areas of Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina where reported yields are running 40% below last year,” Woolverton says. He expects USDA’s next report to show projected global supply low relative to global demand, even though demand has been weakened by the global economic downturn.

Kansas State’s Woolverton was also surprised with the “triple-digit declines in spring wheat planting intentions. Farmers in ND, MT, MN, and SD; the 4 largest spring wheat producing states, expect to plant about 700,000 fewer acres of wheat; and that was before the recent flooding that may prevent spring wheat planting in some areas.” Read his newsletter.

Purdue’s Chris Hurt says we are returning to a normal grain marketing situation, with aggressive bids for the new crop and with basis levels closer to historical levels. But while he says stability is returning, he says grain prices have probably hit bottom.

Pesticides have value says the CropLife Foundation in a report funded by crop protection firms:
1) Each year, approximately 45 mil. acres of US crops are treated with insecticides
2) Farmers annually spend $1.2 bil. on insecticides to prevent crop loss to insects.
3) If untreated, 31 of 50 primary crops would suffer production loss of 40% or more.
4) Seven of the crops would suffer nationwide production losses over 70%.
5) For every $1 spent on insecticides, US farmers gain $19 in production value.

We won’t tattle on you, but your pesticide storage may not be up to standards. IL Extension’s Jim Morrison says, “Pesticides on the farm should also be kept locked and the pesticide storage building should be labeled with a sign stating "Danger – Pesticides – Keep Out". Keep inventory records of pesticides up to date and easily accessible. Have a complete label and a Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for every product on the farm.”

Alfalfa analysis #1. Evaluate your stand by plants in 1 square foot, and you should find: 1) Greater than 12 in the spring of the first production year, 2) Greater than 8 in the spring of the second year, and 3) Greater than 5 in the spring of the third year. Before tearing up the stand, consider forage inventory, cash flow, and available land.

Alfalfa analysis #2. The preferred method of stand evaluation is a stem count per square foot. This approach is a good indicator of potential yield. Stem counts can be taken when the plants are 4 to 6 inches or taller. Count any stem that would be cut at harvest. If there are fewer than 39 robust stems per square foot, consider tearing up the stand.

Wheat analysis. Evaluate your wheat as the soil dries out, particularly if you had little snow cover. Count wheat plants over a 20-foot span in five areas of your field for a period of several weeks to decide whether plants will outgrow injury and to assess any damage that may have occurred. One general guideline is 70 tillers per square foot are considered adequate for optimal yield, says IL Extension’s Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing.

Except for those being caught in traps, black cutworm moths are spreading across the Cornbelt, with females seeking suitable sites to lay eggs. IL Extension entomologists say fields with the greatest risk of black cutworm injury this spring include first-year corn infested with common chickweed and other winter annuals, especially where conservation tillage (including no-till) has been practiced. The annual threat from black cutworms has been reduced by the use of Bt corn, seed treatments and soil insecticides.

Yoo-hoo. Any soybean aphids out there? The every other year schedule no longer is any good, and specialists say the number of aphids they find in the fall no longer gives a good indication of the population the following year. IL Entomologist David Voegtlin says few eggs were found on buckthorn, but they will have overwintered somewhere in the Midwest and will likely expand into treatable populations in those areas. Read his observations.

Your soil type may dictate how you approach spring fieldwork, say IA State ag engineers. Managing corn stubble in continuous corn, which was not worked last fall, depends on soil moisture. They say avoid conventional tillage this spring.
1) Loess soils that are wet in the top 2-3 in. should be no-tilled using row cleaners.
2) In Glacial-till soils, run an empty planter with row cleaners to push residue aside, then
let the soil dry for 2-3 days prior to planting, which will improve corn germination.
3) Strip-till or disking to “dry” the soil will only result in compacted clods at planting.
4) If planting into wet soil, increase seeding rate 2-3,000 to compensate for stand loss.

If you are still juggling corn prices and the cost of anhydrous ammonia, consult the updated version of the corn nitrogen rate calculator, which helps your decision on how much to apply, taking corn prices and nitrogen costs into consideration. Find the calculator.

Increase your corn yield with 10 ideas from Ohio St. agronomist Peter Thomison:
1) Know the yield potential of the field, its yield history, and soil productivity.
2) Use hybrids with high ratings over many trials, using Bt if you have rootworms.
3) Use pest management practices that provide effective, timely pest control.
4) Begin planting before the optimum date if dry, and aim to finish by May 10.
5) Plant 1.5-2 in. deep, at 4.5 to 5 mph, and monitor to prevent uneven emergence.
6) Adjust seeding rate by field, and plant up to 32,000 on highly productive soils.
7) Use the most economical N rate, avoid N loss, and consider using stabilizers.
8) Use soil testing to adjust pH and guide P & K fertilization at optimum rates.
9) Till only when necessary and when soil conditions are right.
10) Take advantage of crop rotation to boost corn yield 10-15% after soybeans.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:34 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

March 27, 2009

Extension Update

Buckle your seatbelt for the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, to be issued that morning by USDA. Statisticians interviewed thousands of farmers earlier this month on their acreage plans. The market is expecting corn acreage at 84.548 mil. acres, the average of an 81.4 to 89 mil. acre range. That compares to 85.982 mil. acres last year.

How many soybean acres will you plant? The market thinks it will be in a range of 75.9 to 81.5 mil. acres, with the average at 79.251 mil. That would be substantially more than the 75.718 mil. acres planted last year. Many observers who are weighing in on the forecast believe soybean acres will rise because of the greater chance for profitability.

Speaking of soybeans, cash prices have swung more than $2 since last December, including a substantial spurt last week. IL Extension’s Darrel Good says that resulted from higher energy prices, a weaker dollar, and a rally in financial futures. Read more of his newsletter.

South America should be dominating the bean market says Good, but with a smaller crop in Brazil and angry farmers in Argentina, export buyers continue to gobble up US supplies. That points to a record level of soybean exports, thanks in major part to China, which has purchased 58% of them. Exports will be pushing toward 1.2 bil. bu. this year.

Darrel Good says the size of the new crop will have a major impact on soybean prices, but there will still be uncertainty about that even after the Prospective Plantings report. The current weather in the upper Plains may throw planting into question in the Dakotas.

The rebound in soybean futures and the stronger basis are providing an opportunity for pricing old crop beans, but Good says it is a harder decision for the new crop, “November futures are slightly above the spring price guarantee for crop revenue insurance so there is some downside risk for unpriced new crop soybeans. That risk is small for the insured portion of the crop, but greater for the uninsured portion,” favoring frequent, small sales.

Marketing recommendations come from Extension’s Mike Roberts at Virginia Tech:
1) Corn: The time to get your old crop corn sold is NOW as this sales window is not expected to last. It is a very good idea to get the ’09 crop priced to 45% if you haven’t done so already. Feed purchasers should wait at least another week or two to buy.
2) Soybeans: It is a good idea to sell all old crop soybeans in the bin and get up to 35% of the ’09 crop priced now. A consensus of sources over the last few days has agreed it is not unreasonable to see loan rate soybeans before this market is done.

In the Quarterly stocks report Tuesday the market expects 7 bil. bu. of corn compared to 6.859 bil. a year ago, and beans at 1.322 bil. bu. compared to 1.434 bil. in 2008.

The Cattle on Feed report indicated feedlot inventory is 5.3% under 2008 levels, with February placements down 2.6% and marketings down 5.3%. Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the numbers should have been bullish, but the weakness in beef demand has sapped the strength in the market and consumers still prefer lower cost protein sources. More.

Cattle price forecasts are more of a function of oil prices than numbers in feedlots, says MO livestock economist Scott Brown, “When oil prices surge, more corn is diverted into ethanol for fuel, raising the cost of corn for feed. In turn, higher feed costs lower feedlot demand for calves. That means less money for cow-calf producers.” Brown also says a lower dollar will spur overseas demand for US beef, and 8% of US beef is exported.

Some beef producers will not survive, says Brown, “Beef producers surviving the economic downturn will be in position to profit in 2010 and beyond.” He adds, "Beef supply is not that plentiful. In a recovery, there won't be enough beef to meet the demand. That applies locally and around the world. Consumers in foreign countries want our beef. It just depends on whether their economies will support buying U.S. beef.”

A valuable commodity produced on many livestock farms and highly desired by gardeners and landscape aficionados now has a central trading point. Not as complex as the Board of Trade, and futures and basis are not involved, a manure exchange has been established by IL Extension livestock management specialist Randy Fonner. You won’t have to pay a brokerage commission here.

Harvesting corn residue may become profitable, but requires nutrient restoration. More.
1) Target corn residue harvest in fields that will be planted to corn next year.
2) Rotate fields so that residue is not removed from the same field every year.
3) Reduce tillage following residue harvest.
4) To restore carbon, use manure instead of or in addition to commercial fertilizer
5) Consider a winter cover crop after residue removal. Roots from winter cover crops are extremely effective at scavenging residual soil nitrate and adding carbon to the soil.

What is your target corn population? MN Extension agronomist Jeff Coulter says IL researchers found, “As yield potential increased from 135 to 225 bushels per acre, the economically optimum plant population increased from about 25,000 to 32,000 plants per acre.” In MN Coulter found, “Yield was maximized at 36,000 plants per acre, and a final stand of 32,000 to 34,000 plants per acre was necessary to maximize economic return. Read more.

What is your soybean planting rate? NE researchers used 30” rows for 3 years and planting rates from 90,000 to 180,000 per acre. “The 120,000, 150,000, and 180,000 yields were statistically the same (only a 0.3-bu. difference between the 120,000 and 150,000 rates) and were significantly better than the 90,000 seed-per-acre plots; however, note that the 90,000 plot yielded only 1.7 bu/ac less than 150,000 plot.” They said it was the ability of soybeans to compensate for reduced population. More.

The final recommendation from the NE research is to reduce populations by 40,000 to 120,000 seeds per acre. “This results in a savings of $10.66 to $18.57 per acre based on seed costs of $40-65 a bag.” They report that a 90% stand has been achieved.

Insect management in your corn and soybeans requires a “Do I need this” answer. That is the position of Ohio State entomologists who share your concern. More.
1) For corn after corn, take preventative action against corn rootworm larvae.
2) Crop rotation is still the preferred action in areas without the rootworm variant.
3) Take preventative action against corn borers if you have a history of borer problems.
4) Transgenic hybrids are recommended against borers if corn is planted after late May.
5) The use of transgenic hybrids requires the planting of a 20% refuge to non-Bt corn.
6) Seed treatments are recommended if the crop is being planted into weeds or alfalfa.
7) Seed treatments will not control black cutworm and are not recommended.
8) Where cutworm damage is common, use a soil insecticide at planting or Herculex.
9) Seed treatments on soybeans will not have any impact on controlling soybean aphids.
10) Unless high populations, seed treatments will not be economical for bean leaf beetles.
11) Seed treatments are warranted on food grade beans to prevent bean pod mottle virus.

If you are growing non-GMO soybeans, weed control should not be a major problem if you follow a 4-step program recommended by Ohio St. agronomists. More.
1) Start weed free at planting with tillage or a preplant herbicide burndown application.
2) Include a broad spectrum residual herbicide in the preplant burndown.
3) Once the beans have emerged, apply a post herbicide to small weeds.
4) Make a second post herbicide application for survivors or late emerging weeds.

Beware of the potential for weed patches in some fields to have developed resistance to PPO inhibitors found in Flexstar and Cobra/Phoenix say the Ohio St. weed specialists. And they say the really bad news is that herbicides being recommended for non-GMO soybeans may be driving more weed populations to become resistant to PPO inhibitors. That is because of the prevalence of weed populations that are also ALS resistant. Their solution is to plant non-GMO beans in a field only once every 3-4 years in a rotation.

If you are considering a foliar fungicide for wheat, WI Extension agronomists want you to first consider what disease resistance is carried by the variety of wheat planted. They say, “Economically, the decision to make a foliar fungicide application is dependent on crop yield potential, commodity prices, pesticide cost including application, and crop yield loss caused by wheel track damage. An adequate yield potential for soft red winter wheat would be in the 55-65 bu/a range. The goal when considering yield and economics is that you want to cover the total cost of the fungicide application.”

Have you been nurturing a young herd, flock, or whatever of soybean cyst nematodes this winter? They may be out of sight and out of mind, but they are hungry and can’t wait for you to plant soybeans. They are temporarily parked in fields with host plants of purple deadnettle, henbit, pennycress, shepherd’s purse, bittercress, & chickweed.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:04 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

March 20, 2009

Extension Update

Will corn production match consumption needs for the 2009-10 marketing year? That is what Darrel Good is wondering in his latest newsletter, since consumption will decide ending stocks and influence your cropping pattern for next year. The IL Extension specialist says recent export demand has been strong enough to exceed USDA estimates.

Corn used for ethanol production in December was at a record level says Good, indicating recovery of the ethanol industry and more favorable margins. While USDA’s ethanol use projection is more optimistic than Good expects, he says the mandate for ethanol production is for 12 bil. gal. in 2010, requiring 500 mil. more bushels of corn.

Darrel Good says total corn consumption could reach 12.5 bil. bu. in the 2009-10 marketing year, so 12.2 bil. bu. will be needed this year. With a 152.8 trend yield, he says that will require 79.8 mil. harvested acres and 87 mil. planted. Good says USDA expects 86 mil. planted and the market is currently expecting less than 87 mil. planted. Read more.

Crude oil prices, the stock market, and the value of the dollar have been the main features in the commodity market in the eyes of South Dakota marketing specialist Alan May, “As long as the current recession remains in place, grain markets will be strongly influenced by those outside factors that may override the more typical supply and demand fundamentals of grain.” He said corn has rallied recently despite those.

Soybeans are tied to the hip of crude oil, believes Alan May at South Dakota St., “When crude falls, beans fall in value. When crude oil rallies, soybean prices have improved.” He says crude oil prices have seen a more consistent stabilization with the more recent trend (the last few weeks) being one of modest price growth.

ACRE answers were provided this week by FSA, along with the reminder that June 1 is the sign-up deadline for 2009 participation, and that all producers on the farm must agree to the ACRE participation. The Q & A provisions indicate there is no crop insurance requirement, and participation is allowed in future years, if you opt out of the program for this year. Read more.

ACRE was a question mark when economists at the Food and Ag Policy Research Institute calculated their 10-year projection for prices and production. There was uncertainty about how many farmers would sign up for the ACRE program or stay with the conventional rates for direct payments and market loans. FAPRI economists say ACRE pricing scenarios show advantages for producers of most crops in the Cornbelt.

The FAPRI 10-year baseline begins with acreage contraction in 2009 due to weak global demands that will not support the additional acreage seen last year. FAPRI expects 4 mil. fewer acres being planted this year to the 12 major crops. The FAPRI report on crops and livestock prices is here.

If you are starting the year behind the curve, save time and expense by eliminating tillage for soybeans after corn. Iowa St. researchers say there is an insignificant soybean yield response from tillage. The cost is $18-25 per acre for conventional tillage compared to no-till, and 6 years of research shows only 1 bu. per acre additional yield.

It must be spring, if black cutworms are being found in traps. Two adult moths were found in Southern IL on Mar. 10. Temperatures are important for larvae hatch, and weather stations have already recorded 200 degree-days just east of St. Louis, MO.

If black cutworms are a concern, Ohio St. entomologists say they do not recommend seed treatments for black cutworm control. They recommend scouting, then application of a rescue treatment if larvae are found. They say if the field has a history of black cutworms or a high population of winter annuals, then a preventative tactic that works can be used, such as using an insecticide at planting or using Herculex XTRA seed.

Is Integrated Pest Management (IPM) a priority? IL entomologists surveyed farmers:
1) 83% believe economic thresholds are still viable for insect pest management.
2) 73% say insect control decisions are based on economic thresholds.
3) 24% say insect control decisions are based on potential yield benefit.
4) 97% planted a Bt hybrid in 2008 seeking a yield benefit.
5) 80% would still plant a Bt hybrid even if corn borer or rootworm levels were low.

Call it horseweed or marestail, it has become a significant headache for many farmers as tillage declines. Capable of both a summer and winter life cycles, patches that are resistant to several herbicide families are becoming more common. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says it should be controlled before planting with tillage help. Find complete advice here.
1) If tillage is not an option, existing plants should be controlled before 6 in. in height.
2) Use glyphosate burndown with tankmix of dicamba, paraquat, and 2,4-D.
3) Ester formulations of 2,4-D are preferable over amine formulations.
4) Glufosinate can be used, and improved with tankmix of atrazine or metribuzin.

What is your weed crop in the field to be planted to non-GMO soybeans? Ohio St. weed specialist Mark Loux expects your weed issues to be difficult to control, since many weeds are becoming ALS-resistant. He says your general weed program may be:
1) Use tillage or a burndown to begin planting from the point of being weed free.
2) Include broad-spectrum residual herbicides in the preplant burndown treatment.
3) Apply a post herbicide to small weeds, and a second post application to late arrivals.

Did your wheat survive the winter? Fields with no ground cover or where plants failed to root adequately before the December cold snap are the ones of most concern to IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger. Fluctuating temperatures can cause the soil to heave the crown out of the soil and expose roots to sun and wind damage, as well as freezing.

Wheat diseases are also a cold weather issue, particularly wheat mosaic virus that lives with a fungal organism that enters wheat roots. Cold spells last fall could have benefited the virus that infected the wheat. Pythium root rot is also a potential fungus if wheat was planted into wheat chaff and straw and wet soils. While a systemic fungicide can help against Pythium, both problems can be helped with using resistant wheat varieties.

Wheat that is greening up deserves a shot of spring nitrogen. Ohio St. agronomists say yields can be improved if the timing of the application came when the first stem node was visible, compared to an application when the wheat was turning green. Yields dropped 10-15% if the nitrogen application was delayed to the early boot stage.

High-yielding, irrigated continuous corn may be short on phosphorus says NE nutrient management specialist Charles Wortmann. He says current recommendations are to not add phosphorus when your soil test indicates it is over 15 parts per million. However his new research recommends applying up to 20 ppm of phosphorus on continuous corn.

But with phosphorus costing $1,000 per ton, is that something you can get along with out? Purdue fertility specialist Jim Camberato says, “Contrary to popular belief, more often than not the corn crop responds to the nitrogen component and not the phosphorous component of starter fertilizer.” He says the crop only benefits from 5-10% of the P.

What is your “footprint” for emitting greenhouse gases? The EPA is contemplating a monitoring program of industrial sources of methane, carbon dioxide and other gases, say MO Extension specialists. Included on the list for monitoring are manure storage facilities, but left off the list are manure composting facilities, tillage, farm burning, and the controversial “cow tax.” The specialists say there is no tax included in the monitoring proposal, but consider it a first step toward limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Read more.

320 acres of energy grass are growing on the largest bio-fuels research farm in the US, located at Urbana, IL, where miscanthus, switchgrass, corn, and restored prairie are under research to compare insect and disease challenges, environmental benefits, economic opportunities and potential energy per acre of each. The biggest challenge is planting the potato-like roots of miscanthus, and researchers are inventing planters and harvesters.

Corn is one of those biomass crops, but is being cultivated for its stover value instead of grain. IL researchers have rearranged the genes to produce a high sugar content grain, sugar in the stalk, and bulky biomass in the stalk. The plant uses very little nitrogen, and researchers say yields, even with low nitrogen, top production records for switchgrass.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 1:52 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

March 13, 2009

Extension Update

The March 31 Prospective Plantings Report will confirm whether USDA’s estimate of fewer planted corn and soybean acres in the recent Outlook Conference was correct. IL Extension’s Darrel Good says the combination of 86 mil. corn and 77 mil. soybean acres appears low, given the 4.2 mil. acre cut in wheat and 2 mil. acre cut in cotton and rice.

Good says USDA believes planted acreage will decline as a result of lower returns, but farmers will have to confirm that in the survey now underway. He says the market will assess the intentions and decide if prices need to change to alter the intended acreage. He says unless acreage is reduced, there may be a potential surplus of one or more crops.

The Quarterly Stocks Report also will be released in two weeks, and Darrel Good says it will be more important for corn than for the bean market. Bean use is well known, and Good says March 1 stocks should be about 1.3 bil. bu. But he says conflicts between USDA and Census Bureau statistics on corn exports make the stocks estimates difficult to predict. He’s estimating 2nd quarter use at 2.6 bil. and March 1 stocks at 7.1 bil. bu. Read his newsletter.

USDA’s March Supply Demand Report forecast a 100 mil. bu. increase in corn demand by ethanol refiners, the result of improved profitability. Carryout dropped to 1.74 bil. bu. Export demand was lowered by 50 mil. bu. and feed demand held stead at 5.3 bil. bu. Corn exports are competing with other nations and feed quality wheat. USDA estimated the season average price at $4.10 from early season forward contracts.

USDA’s March Supply Demand Report forecast a 10 mil bu. drop in the soybean crush to 1.64 bil. which results from weaker demand for oil and meal. With bio-diesel facing low profitability, soy oil demand was reduced by 700 mil. lbs. Soybean exports remain strong, and export projections were raised to 1.185 bil. bu. thanks to Chinese demand. Carryout was dropped to 185 mil. and the season average price was reset to $9.35 per bu.

USDA’s March Supply Demand Report forecast higher carryover for the 2008 wheat crop putting stocks-to-use at 32%. While Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton says the report was bearish for wheat, USDA held the season price range steady at $6.70-$6.90. Woolverton says the global wheat crop grew with larger Australian yields.

Woolverton at Kansas State says the S/D report does not address any “demand destruction,” although exports are down. He says, “This is a more optimistic picture than we have been led to believe, given recent press coverage of bad economic news. If the stock market has indeed found its bottom, look for commodities to decouple from the decline in stock prices and attract more attention from traders in coming weeks.”

Commodity prices may be low now, but they will return to higher levels over the next 10 years say FAPRI economists at MO and IA St. Recovery is projected in 2010, helped by China, India, and Vietnam with 7-8% economic growth. They expect ethanol prices to fall because of lower crude oil prices, but bio-energy mandates ensure demand growth.

The FAPRI economists forecast soft wheat and corn prices into the 2009-10 marketing years, but eventually climb on increased demand. Weaker demand will also soften soybean prices, but world trade will grow by one-third in the coming decade helped by Chinese demand. Meat prices should be strong because of growing global demand.

Farmers considering the biotech endorsement for crop insurance, do not have to make that commitment by the March 16 crop insurance deadline. USDA’s deadline for the BE option is not until June 30th, which is the deadline for FSA planted acreage reporting. Anyone using the BE option must provide the agent with seed and planting records, says Stephen Johnson of IA St., who says hail and wind policies can be added after March 16.

Dryland farmers in the Western Cornbelt are being urged by Kansas St. economist Art Barnaby to obtain a minimum 70% CRC or RA-HPO insurance, or greater coverage for optional units. He’s recommending enterprise units for corn in a single county, which has a discounted premium and a higher USDA subsidy. Barnaby says an 80% coverage on enterprise units increases total guaranteed dollars and gains SURE disaster protection.

Barnaby says his reason for CRC or RA-HPO with the lowest premium cost is because they have no downside price limits, and the upside limit is 2 times the base price on all revenue products. Read more.

Don’t consider any shenanigans says Art Barnaby at Kansas St. if you are thinking about shorting fertilizer applications because your revenue crop insurance guarantee is more than your crop might gross. Barnaby says crop insurance policies require farmers to follow good farming practices, and an adjuster could deny a claim if it isn’t followed. Barnaby also says that will only serve to lower your APH for future years.

ACRE is strongly recommended by Mich. State ag economist Jim Hilker, instead of relying on Direct Payments, “ACRE is more like revenue insurance (although it is not a substitute for crop insurance), what are the odds there will be a payoff? My analysis at this point is that there is over a 50% chance that ACRE for corn will trigger at both the state and farm levels in 2009, and probably more than make up for the lost 20% of direct payments.” Read more of his Outlook.

While Hilker’s vantage point is the state of Michigan, he calculates that expected corn, soybean, and wheat prices would trigger payment from the ACRE program this year:
1) Corn: “It would only take a price a bit lower than the $3.60 estimate to trigger ACRE even with trend yields if the 2008-09 price remains at $3.90 or higher.”
2) Wheat: “If the $5.15 price forecast occurs, it would trigger ACRE for wheat with normal yields. The past two years’ average price is 22% higher.”
3) Soybeans: “The average of the 2007-08 and 2008-09 average annual weighted bean prices is $9.67. The $8.00 projection for 2009-10 is over 20% lower (compared to $9.67). Normal yields or less and we have another ACRE trigger.”

Farmers baffled by varying refuge requirements for BT corn with stacked traits may want to follow NE Extension recommendations, since rootworm BT is more restrictive than corn borer BT traits. Read the latest newsletter.
1) Plant one common refuge, void of Bt traits, instead of planting 2 separate refuges.
2) Plant the refuge in the same field as the Bt traits to help meet distance requirements.
3) Know the minimum required refuge size for a particular geography and Bt trait.

If charcoal rot is one of your soybean headaches, you will want to see how Doug Jardine of Kansas St. recommends identification and management. He’s featured on a free web-based program available until the end of March, and provided by the Plant Management Network, which publishes agricultural resource materials, such as Jardine’s webcast.

Dairymen are urged to tune into a web-based seminar at 12 Noon on March 20 about Feeding Strategies with Current Milk Prices. IL Extension’s Mike Hutjens will focus on feed benchmarks, impact of nutrient reduction, by-product feeds, and monitoring cow performance. Free registration.

Dairy operations with silage need to observe optimum planting dates. MN agronomist Jeff Coulter says milk per ton of silage was within 1% of the maximum when corn was planted April 15 to May 17 in WI, and milk per acre was within 1% of the maximum when planting dates were April 21 and May 6. He says silage dry matter increases with higher plant population, but dry matter yield slows when populations exceed 35,000. Read his newsletter.

Canadian hogs entering the US have slowed say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. In fact feeder pig imports are down over 36%, in part because there are 10% fewer hogs in Canada and the breeding herd is down 7%. They also say the US COOL labeling law makes it less attractive to import live animals instead of meat.

Cattle feeders have suffered huge losses this winter say Grimes and Plain, with many closeouts in the red by over $200/head. The result is feed lots slowing down their rate of marketing to force up prices, but that forced up slaughter weights by 29 lbs this week.

After measuring carbon in the soil of 7 eastern states, OSU agronomists say carbon storage is greatest in the top 8 inches of no-till fields; but if you measure stored carbon down to 12 inches, more will be found in plowed fields than in no-till. Survey leader Rattan Lal says carbon storage is best done based on soil type, rather than by tillage.

Farms are still on the wrong side of the digital divide. The 2007 Ag Census indicates 57% have Internet access, up from 50% in 2002. Of those that have access, 58% have a high-speed connection, which increases farmers’ efficiency in using the Internet.

Stu Ellis

Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:49 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

March 6, 2009

Extension Update

Soybeans may have a record year, says Iowa State’s Chad Hart, particularly if 77 mil. acres are planted to beans, which would be a record amount of land. He says USDA is projecting that level based on lower input costs compared to corn. The resulting 3.24 bil. bu. would also be a record, as would a projected 1.225 bil. bu. of exports. However, Hart says production will exceed use and stocks will increase with an average $8 season price.

Grain markets still have their sights on South American crops and how much production was lost to the dry spell over recent months, says Chad Hart. USDA thinks South American corn production will be down 21% and beans down 6%. With global trade shifting to South America, US weekly corn sales were down 66% and exports down 15% compared to the prior week. Soybean sales were down 69% and exports down 28%.

Corn prices have been hurt by some negative fundamentals says Mike Roberts at VA Tech. He says a drop in crude oil, plunging equity markets, and gains in the US dollar pressured prices, along with the fact Japan bought Romanian corn, “New surveys show that many producers have ’08 corn still in the bin. It would be a very good idea to get it sold at this time. It might be a good idea to price up to 45% of the 2009 crop.”

The soybean market is impacted by the same fundamentals says Roberts, who also says soybean prices are being pressured by the fact “The Argentinean government is interested in taking over their large soybean industry so they may regulate prices to their own buyers.” And Roberts adds, “Cash soybeans are steady to stronger. It might be a good idea to get all old crop beans sold and price up to 25% of the ’09 crop.”

A 50/50 chance. That’s what Iowa State Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor is giving for La Nina-derived weather problems in 2009. He says the current event shows signs of weakening, but there is no clear trend, which usually is apparent by mid-March to mid-April. So he says the chance of a neutral versus La Nina condition by June is 50/50.

What does a La Nina mean? Elwynn Taylor says the trend line corn yield for 2009 is 153.4 bushels per acre, with a Dec futures value of $4.53 at harvest. He says the historical response to the La Nina would give a 144 bu. yield with a Dec harvest value of $5.45. If La Nina shifts to neutral, he expects 155 bu. and a Dec futures price of $4.37.

USDA’s Risk Management Agency earlier this week certified the spring guarantees for revenue-based crop insurance such as Revenue Assurance (RA) and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC). The spring guarantees are $4.04 for corn and $8.80 for soybeans. The sign-up deadline is March 16 for spring planted row crops in the Cornbelt, for anyone signing up for the first time or making substantial changes in a crop insurance program.

Some of the variables remain unknown for the ACRE program, including your farm’s performance and the final tally for state average prices from the current marketing year. However, IL Extension economist Nick Paulson has estimated Illinois guarantees:
1) For corn the yield component will be roughly 164 bu/acre and the price component is projected about $4.05 per bushel, implying a state-level revenue guarantee of $600/A.
2) Similarly, the current projections for the revenue guarantees for soybean and wheat acres for 2009 are approximately $400 and $345 per acre, respectively.

Evaluating several thousand farm records, Paulson estimates ACRE would have been triggered in 10 of the past 31 years for IL corn with average payments of $53. Payments averaging $37 would have been made on IL soybeans in 5 of the last 31 years. Read more.

Choosing ACRE requires awareness. Paulson says, “If farm yields tend to closely follow the (state) average, the farm trigger criteria will have a greater chance of being met in years when ACRE payments are triggered. The timing of payments should be considered. Because of the definition of the price component used by the ACRE program, the revenue guarantee will not be completely established prior to expected sign-up periods in the spring and the actual revenue measure used to determine ACRE payments in a given year will not be finalized until just before harvest of the following crop year.”

Supplemental Revenue Assistance, the permanent disaster aid program known as SURE, has been reopened for 2008 crop problems until May 18 at FSA offices. SURE required producers to have purchased crop insurance for all insurable crops that accounted for 5% or more of their expected gross value of crop production in 2008. The chance to pay a $100 per crop fee has been extended, but the coverage limit is 70% of the proven yield. Producers who enroll to make a 2008 claim must also enroll for 2009.

SURE payments, if a disaster is triggered, are bolstered by a crop insurance policy, says Ohio State Extension’s Chris Bruynis, “If a farmer chooses not to purchase crop insurance, they cannot participate in SURE. Essentially the SURE revenue guarantee will be 115% of the crop insurance coverage level plus 120% of the NAP coverage levels. If a 75% coverage level is purchased the SURE revenue guarantee will be approximately 86%. The SURE revenue guarantee is capped at 90% of expected crop revenue.”

With a wet fall and a possible wet spring, are you considering a switch to no-till to save time on field preparation? Iowa State agronomists suggest several considerations:
1) Check internal field drainage for ponds, plugged tiles, and plugged inlets.
2) Soil temperature is critical and strip tillage is one way to warm, but conserve soil.
3) Poor plant performance could reflect moisture or compaction problems below the seed.
4) N, P, & K needs are the same in no-till, but P & K mineralization is slower.
5) No-till does not change the economic returns for corn following soybeans.

Beware of problems that could spell danger on some newer anhydrous ammonia applicators. Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna says high N prices have lead to flow controllers that can shut off individual knives. But he says it traps pressurized ammonia at locations in the system, requiring the entire applicator to be bled before servicing. Read more.

Have all your decisions been made for your 2009 corn and soybean crops? What about:
1) Corn or beans?
2) Are your soil fertility decisions made?
3) Row width?
4) Seeding rate?
5) Planter maintenance?

It is too early to tell how the wheat crop survived the winter, says Ohio State University agronomist Pierce Paul, “March is always a very stressful time for wheat due to the rapid changes in air temperatures, potential for heaving, and flooding. However, what we've seen thus far is that the wheat seems to be coming out of winter in pretty good shape and that's largely because we had a good planting season and good snow cover.”

What about N for wheat?