Grain originating in the Cornbelt destined for livestock feedlots may be trucked down the road or railed to the Southwest. Grain destined for the export market is loaded on barges on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers, towed to the Gulf and loaded on Panamax ships for overseas destinations. But grain produced for the biofuels industry has a different future that spills into the region around the farm and the nearby ethanol refinery.

The federal policy initiatives that sparked biofuel production has not only set targets in future years for production of ethanol and biodiesel, but have caused some dominoes to fall in the meantime, say USDA economists Scott Malcolm and Marcel Aillery writing in the current issue of Amber Waves electronic magazine. The 36 billion gallon goal by 2022 and the 15 billion gallon goal for ethanol by 2015 results from the Congressional attempt to make energy resources more secure. By 2016 that means ethanol will consume 35% of US corn production, but also that year the mandate requires 4.25 billion gallons of ethanol made from cellulose-based feed stocks. Subsequently, the growing demand for corn and other biomass will change the agricultural landscape as cropping patterns adjust and production practices change. The USDA economists say that may lead to conversion of land, more intense cultivation practices, and increasing the potential for environmental degradation.

The increased amount of corn shipped to ethanol plants has increased the net cost of feed for livestock producers, but softened the hardship with added supplies of DDGS at lower prices. Other biomass crops, such as forestry waste, municipal solid waste, and algae, would not compete for farmland like corn. As crop prices rise, cultivation expands, and it will do so the most in the Northern Plains and the Cornbelt, which USDA calculates will supply two-thirds of the 90+ million acres of corn anticipated by 2016.

The expansion of corn production anticipated by the USDA will raise nitrogen use by 2% and pesticides by nearly 3% over prior estimates, with additional nitrogen running off into waterways and down the rivers. USDA is not predicting changes in water quality, but is estimating increased nitrogen runoff along with the higher biofuel target. Additionally, 2% more erosion is anticipated with sheet erosion from more corn acreage.

The USDA economists also expect the added corn acres will involve added emissions of greenhouse gases, from a combination of increased tillage, more fertilizer usage, and more reduction of stored carbon in the soil. More corn acres will also increase the demand for water, including for irrigated areas. They also expect idled land converted to corn production will also strain wildlife resources and reduce wildlife habitats.

The economic study predicts 170 bushel average corn yields by 2016, resulting from planting on good soils, higher yielding seed, use of irrigation, and planting less ground that is of average production. Some of the poorer land will also be planted to switchgrass, relieving better land for food grains and providing another income source, as would harvesting of corn stover. Such actions also have an environmental impact with soil erosion, loss of soil nutrients, reduced soil carbon, and reduced soil moisture.

The economists say conservation programs such as EQIP can mitigate some of the environmental impact of producing biomass for ethanol production. Nutrient and soil management programs could offset potential soil loss and leaching of nitrates, and the use of no-till systems will further reduce soil loss. They say CRP could be part of a larger program for biofuel production, as could riparian buffers that could produce forage to replace higher priced livestock feeds. And the economists say USDA must manage conservation compliance rules and the allowance of CRP grazing as part of the change.

Summary:
The demand for biofuels will increase the demand for corn as well as biomass feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol. But along with that change will come application of more nitrogen and pesticides, the potential for more soil loss through erosion, and some changes in water quality as a result. Most of the change will occur in the Cornbelt and Great Plains where the production increases will occur. The additional harvesting of biomass such as corn stover adds new issues for consideration, such as soil loss, loss of soil nutrients, reduced moisture, and reduced soil carbon.