Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators. (UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE SEPTEMBER CROP REPORT.)

USDA’s September Crop Report was released this morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The crop estimates are posted at:
1) Supply and demand balance sheet
2) NASS Crop Estimates

Projected corn yields diminished somewhat in USDA's Sept Crop Report released Friday morning compared to the August forecast. With a national average yield estimated at 152.3 bu. total production was calculated at 12.072 bil. bu. Yields were lowered 3 bu. in IA, 2 bu. in IN, 6 bu. in NE, 2 bu. in MN, and kept steady in IL. OH dropped 8 bu. per acre. USDA says the national yield would be second behind 2004, and production would be second behind 2007.

The market had expected an average of 153.3 bu. for corn, down from the 155 bu. estimate in Aug. Also anticipated for corn was total production at 12.152 bil. bu. and ending stocks for next Aug. at 1.056 bil. bu. down from USDA’s 1.133 bil. in Aug.

USDA's corn balance sheet estimates total consumption of 12.645 bil. bu., which will lower ending stocks to 1.018 bil. Feed use estimates declined from 5.3 to 5.2 bil. and both export and ethanol use estimates remained unchanged from August. The national average price was raised 10 cents to a range of $5 to $6.

Soybean production was estimated at 2.933 bil. bu. from a national average yield of 40.0 bu. per acre, and that was down from 40.5 estimated in August. IL, MN & IA soybean yields remained steady, but yields declined 3 bu. in IN & OH. USDA said the impact of Hurricane Gustav was too late to be reflected in the September Crop Report.

USDA's soybean balance sheet lowered the crush by 30 mil. bu., but retained exports at 1.0 bil. from the August forecast, along with the 135 mil. bu. carryout. The national average price was raised 10 cents to a range of $11.60 to $13.10.

The market had expected a 40.2 bu. per acre average yield for soybeans, compared to the 40.5 bu. average forecast by USDA in Aug. Also expected by the market was a 2.95 bil. bu. crop, with a 146 mil. bu. carryout next August, up from USDA’s 135 mil. in Aug.

Crop size for corn and beans tends to grow in the September Crop Report says Marketing Specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. Corn production climbs 1% and bean production climbs 1.4%. He says the bigger swings have been in years with unusual weather, lead by 1988 and 1993 for corn and 2003 and 2004 for soybeans. He says, “Based on the 1993 and 2003 crop years, downward revisions in corn and soybean production are more likely given the late planting and flooding.” See his charts.

Grain exports are headed south says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, compared to the 2007-8 marketing year that may have recorded corn exports at 2.425 bil. bu. But USDA projects exports for the new corn crop at 2 bil. bu. for these reasons:
1) Foreign grain production will be at record highs, resulting in fewer imports needed.
2) The stronger dollar means US grain is more expensive in a slower global economy.

Darrel Good also expects soybean exports to taper off this year for several reasons:
1) Soybean exports of 1.145 bil. bu. this year will be 13% less or 1 bil. bu. in 2008-9.
2) Chinese soybean imports that grew 23% last year will only grow 1.5% for 2008-9.
3) Total world soybean trade will slow, and South American will export more.
Read more.

Grain stocks will be estimated by USDA at the end of the month, advises Jim Hilker at Michigan State. For corn he’s expecting the Sept. 1 stocks to be 1.576 bil. or 12% of use. Hilker says exports and feed have been on target and he says carryout should be kept steady in the Sept. 12 Crop Report. Read his newsletter.

Compare your state to NE, where ag economist Bruce Johnson says the build up of cash receipts has been “phenomenal.” He says historically, livestock sales had been 60% of cash receipts, but with 2008 crop receipts double that of 2005, cash receipts from crops will surpass livestock. Read his newsletter.

Johnson projects NE farm income to be 21% more than 2007 and 90% higher than the previous 10 year average. But he says that is not the case for everyone, since there is a great disparity between crop and livestock producers. He calculates, “The crop sector is staged to reap an additional $1.5 billion of net farm income in 2008, while the livestock sector may well experience a $750 million reduction in net earnings compared to 2007.”

“Markets don’t like profits,” says MO economist Ray Massey, and ethanol has not only resulted in corn profits, but has caused market volatility and price risk. Massey says profits will go to zero because of increases for crop input prices. “Profits will go toward zero first for ethanol producers, then for crop producers, and eventually for input suppliers and landowners, says Massey, who predicted “a painful transition.”

With high market volatility, vigilant risk management is crucial says Missouri’s Massey, and farmers need to keep watch of their financial strength. He says your current ratio of assets to debt should be 1.5 to 2.0 or better. That is $1 of debt for $2 of assets. He also recommended doubling your cash reserves, since production cost has doubled.

Warm and sunny weather will speed corn dry down and cut your drying costs, although the late planting may mean you’ll have drying charges. Peter Thomison at Ohio State says corn will dry 3/4 to 1% per day from mid to late September, but that slows to a rate of 1/2 to 3/4% per day going into October, and is negligible by late November.

Thomison says count your growing degree days. “Generally, it takes 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25 to 20% requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture. In September we average about 10 to15 GDDs per day. In October (as weather cools) the rate drops to 5 to 10 GDDs per day.”

If you are harvesting corn for dry grain storage, OSU’s Thomison says that should begin at 23% to 25% moisture, since waiting until 20% can mean yield losses from stalk lodging, ear rots, and insect feeding damage. The loss of one normal-sized ear every 100 feet of row means a loss of one bushel per acre, which is also two kernels per square foot.

Use harvest to predict your 2009 weed crop suggests Iowa State’s Michael Owen who says use of a single herbicide will quickly allow development of resistant weeds. Also:
1) Weeds follow tillage patterns and the presence of live weeds indicates resistance.
2) Once a weed problem is recognized it is usually too late to resolve the problem.
3) Field ponds that produced only a crop of weeds will have major weeds in 2009.
4) Field ponds may also warrant additional weed control tactics and separate management
5) Plan to use an early pre-plant herbicide next year on 2008 problem areas.

What are your soybean plans for 2009, Roundup Ready beans or conventional beans? MO agronomist Grover Shannon says the tripling of glyphosate prices are causing more farmers to return to a conventional system, using comparatively yielding soybeans, but with a cheaper cost of weed control, and less likelihood of glyphosate resistance. And Shannon says the going price for non-GMO soybeans is about $1 over CBOT prices.

Scout soybeans for pod damage by bean leaf beetles. Holes will allow disease entry that will cause discolored, moldy, shriveled, or disease beans that otherwise look healthy.

Compare your state to OH, where OSU agronomists say nearly every farm in Ohio has a field or two that could benefit from planting wheat by reducing problems associated with the continuous production of corn and soybeans. Find more.
1) Select the highest yielding variety, with resistance to multiple diseases and fungi.
2) Plant in the first 10 days after the fly free date and avoid aphid-borne BYDV.
3) Use the optimum seeding rate between 1.2 and 1.6 mil. seeds per acre.
4) Plant seeds 1.5 in. deep, which is critical for tiller development and winter survival.
5) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre at planting to enhance tiller development.

High corn prices mean changes in cattle feeding. Nebraska’s Darrel Mark says as the feeding cost of gain has doubled in the past two years, there is more incentive to background calves during the winter and following summer on forages and delay placing the cattle on feed until they are long yearlings at the end of the summer grazing season. But he says heavy calves weaned in the fall may have overweight carcasses.

If you are evaluating retained ownership in the fall calf crop, Mark says decide whether to put them on feed then or wait until they are yearlings next fall. He says yearlings could generate a $69 return per head, compared to $2 return for calves that are fed to be sold in May 2009. Read more.

Overseas demand for pork, combined with the low value of the dollar, had been keeping the pork market active, but MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says the information won’t surface until another month or two, but the action of the market in the past 30 days suggests a slowdown in the phenomenal growth in pork exports.

Farm Safety Week begins Sept. 21, and is designed to call attention to the hundreds of Cornbelt accidents involving slow moving farm equipment, particularly during the harvest season. Many states have requirements for highly reflective SMV placards, along with strong headlights and plenty of red lights that indicate the width of the equipment.

Farmers should also take steps toward safer operations on their own farm, says IL safety specialist Bob Aherin, since a harvest mishap can mean a $300/day loss. Read more:
1) Your pre-harvest checklist should include all safety lights and clean placards.
2) Ensure ladders and steps are sturdy, and the header is blocked if working underneath.
3) Keep combines free of dust, check for leaky fuel lines and hoses, have an extinguisher.
4) Take breaks every two hours or so, to stretch and avoid injury, and drink water.
5) Keep in radio or telephone communication with family members.