Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

USDA crop statisticians are now in the Cornbelt taking data for the next crop report due on Friday, Sept. 12. Michigan State’s Jim Hilker says it may not be much different than the August Crop Report because the weather has been similar. Hilker quotes NASS officials as saying the crop may be late this year, but it was late several years ago with satisfactory results. And he says the NASS weather models don’t expect an early frost.

Jim Hilker says if you have already priced a lot of corn, watch the market. If you have not priced as much as you want, consider selling into rallies or at $6 cash. He believes the wild card will be the oil market that will push up ethanol and corn prices, and currently the oil market is increasingly nervous about Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf.

The August Crop Report which estimated the soybean crop below market expectations was the result of poor soybean plant per acre population, says Michigan State’s Hilker. He says germination and survival was hurt with the heavy June rains restricting yields. Hilker says sell beans if need be, but the soybean market is paying for on-farm storage.

Is the corn market weak because of ethanol, or vice versa? That is the question of Ohio State marketing specialist Matt Roberts who says USDA’s increased estimate of corn used for ethanol is somewhat suspect. He says USDA believes more corn will be refined because corn prices are low and ethanol margins will be higher. Roberts says, “Those lower corn prices have been largely offset by lower ethanol prices, leaving ethanol processing margins only slightly improved from this spring.” He questions expansion. Read more.

Roberts’ recommendations are to sell old crop corn when December futures move above $6. For the new crop, which Roberts thinks will be bolstered by another acreage bidding war with soybeans, he says $5 is the downside, and there should be selling opportunities above $6.50 later in the winter. He says watch the ethanol plant basis.

The soybean market is controlled by the tight carryover stocks again, says Roberts, but exports are a question mark for many. He questions whether South America will be taking away US soybean export business without increased production. He looks for a December to February rally in the soybean market pushing prices above $14.50.

“Dysfunctional” is what Matt Roberts calls the wheat basis, because of the $1.50 basis at Toledo when the July contract expired. “This indicates to me that the wheat futures market does not currently reflect the cash market, and should not be taken as any sort of a guide to planting decisions.” He says base planting decisions on your elevator bids.

You already know that 2009 crop input costs are rising. Gary Schnitkey at Illinois says add $141 for corn and $82 for soybeans over 2008 costs. Mike Duffy at Iowa State says he has calculated corn inputs at $120 to $140 more and soybeans at $65 higher. William Edwards at Iowa State says energy costs for manufacturing and transportation are up.

The bottom line on higher input costs will be at the top of the agenda when talking with your lender. Your operating line credit limits from last year will not be sufficient to cover 2009 input costs says Edwards, but your profits from the past two years should have allowed debt to be paid down and credit could be easier to obtain as a result.

Cash rent discussions will soon be underway. Iowa State’s Edwards had earlier suggested settling on a base rent now, with a premium paid later if prices rise before planting. He also says another concept for a flexible cash lease is, “Start sharing revenue after the tenant has earned enough to cover all non-land costs plus the base rent.”

How much acreage or livestock does it take for you to earn a living on the farm? One farm business management group in MN offered its calculations based on its members:
1) 890 acres of corn, based on a net return of $84.03 per acre over a 5 year average.
2) 970 acres of beans, based on a net return of $77.15 per acre over a 5 year average.
3) 369 acres of hay, based on a net return of $202.77 per acre over a 5 year average.
4) 4,380 head of farrow to finish hogs, with $17.08 per head over a 5 year average.
5) 15,568 head of finish hogs, with a $4.51 net return per head over a 5 year average.
6) 831 head of feedlot calves, with a $89.98 net return per head over a 5 year average.
7) 127 head of dairy cows, with a $509.96 return per head over a 5 year average.

Do the tops of your soybeans looked to be “singed?” Iowa State pathologists call it “soybean dieback” for lack of a better term, and they are just as uncertain about its cause. Top leaves turn yellow, then turn brown, and then nodes begin to discolor. Plants die prematurely, and symptoms are more severe if the plants are stressed by SCN. Compare your field.

Frost and forage #1. When pricing standing corn that has been killed by frost, weigh the dry matter and agree on a price for constant moisture, without paying more for water. Harvested immature corn silage at 30-34% dry matter should be stored in bags, bunkers or piles. Have it tested for nutritional value to balance rations says Mike Hutjens at IL.

Frost and forage #2. Immature corn is ideal for dairy and beef cattle since drying cost is avoided. It can be stored in a silo, bag, or bunkers, and feeding six inches from the surface can maintain quality and avoid mold and yeast formation. Dairy Specialist Hutjens recommends using inoculants for wet corn to improve fermentation.

Frost and forage #3. Immature soybeans can be harvested similar to alfalfa/legume forage and stored in bags, a bunker or vertical silo. Harvest at pod formation will optimize dry matter content and quality. Earlier harvesting will lose leaves and protein content. Hutjens also recommends inoculating soybean silage to improve fermentation.

Temperature may tell you if grain in a bin is going out of condition. But USDA researchers have found that measuring carbon dioxide, along with the temperature and moisture of the grain, can help detect problems that are brewing. The presence of carbon dioxide indicates the growth of molds within the grain that will cause deterioration.

Dry weather in the eastern Cornbelt not only has reduced the girth of corn ears, but has deteriorated the quality of corn stalks, and Ohio State agronomists say that will cause potential stalk rot and corn lodging prior to harvest. They say the plant is not making enough carbohydrates to keep cells alive, and the plant begins to feed on itself to make the kernels in the ear. Stalk rots can also be caused by various fungi, aided by borers.

Corn stressed by drought will contain unusually high levels of nitrates, and may make it too toxic as a livestock feed. OSU agronomist Peter Thomison says nitrates are usually incorporated into various plant tissues as proteins. But without sufficient water, plant functions stop and the nitrates accumulate. Thomison makes suggestions before use:
1) Delay harvest 1-2 weeks after a heavy rainfall to allow nitrates to disperse in the plant.
2) If harvesting corn as silage, delay that enough to maximize grain fill in the ear.
3) Consult factsheets on feeding droughty corn.

Grasshoppers, bean leaf beetles, and stink bugs are looking for some juicy soybean pods to attack, and when they do your soybean quality suffers. Pod damage allows fungi to enter and attack seed quality, frequently with discoloration and resultant dockage. OSU entomologists say leaf feeding is not an issue, but if insect populations are high and pod damage has reached 10%, then a rescue treatment is warranted. However, one of the issues of concern is the length of time between treatment and harvest of the field.

NE wheat growers are being warned about a collision with grasshoppers if they plant seed wheat too early, and it begins to emerge before the first frost can reduce the grasshopper population. 11-20 per square yard of planted field can cause significant losses. Suggestions for control include delaying the planting date or using Furadan 4F along field borders under a Special Local Needs label. The danger is applicator safety.

Japanese hop is a weed you may soon come to know because of its spread into the Cornbelt. It is an invasive specie that grows well in shade or sun. Japanese hop is an annual vine that has five lobed leaves and prickly stems. Glyphosate can control it, but read more.

Last week’s Cattle on Feed report indicated feedlots had 4% less than last year and 9% less than 2006. Placements were up 2% from July but were down 15% from 2006. USDA reported marketings were 2% more than 2008 and 5% more than 2006. Livestock economist Dillon Feuz at Utah State says, “Northern cattle are enjoying better grass conditions and remaining outside the feedlots, while hot dry weather in Texas likely contributed to heavier placements there.” Dec live cattle are the lowest price since May.