Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators. UPDATED WITH NEW USDA MAY SUPPLY-DEMAND NUMBERS

USDA’s May supply-demand report reduced corn use for the new crop by 2% as the result of lower feed use and export demand, even though ethanol production will continue to rise. Feed use will be down 14%, but replaced in part by DDGS, and exports will be down 16% due to increased world competition. Ethanol will be up 33% from current year levels, although refinery construction has slowed. The new crop was estimated at 12.1 bil. bu., hurt by the slow spring planting rate. Carryout was estimated at 763 mil. bu. with farmgate prices from $5 to $6 /bu.

USDA estimates new crop soybean production at 3.1 bil. bu., helped by increased acreage. The crush is expected to rise 1%, and soybean oil consumption will see a shift from lower food use to higher bio-diesel use. Soybean exports are expected to fall slightly, and ending stocks for the new crop will only be at 185 mil. bu. The season average price is estimated to range from $10.50 to $12.

USDA’s supply-demand expectations for new crop wheat are for 2.4 bil. bu. production, helped by 17% more acres, and a higher yield. Usage is projected to drop 5% from lower exports, but offset slightly from higher domestic consumption. The 24% decline in exports results from larger world production. The national average price is forecast at $6.60 to $8.10 per bushel.

The market has been buying more corn acres since the Planting Intentions report, but IL Extension economist Darrel Good wonders if there will really be the demand that the market expects. He says pork producers are reducing their inventory; corn exports may decline if the dollar rebounds and wheat stocks are available; and China’s corn needs are uncertain. Read more.

Another question mark on corn demand is the ethanol market. Policy makers are debating the biofuels mandates and the tax credit received by blenders, in light of higher domestic food prices which critical consumers have erroneously blamed on ethanol. Good says, “At current prices for corn and ethanol, however, corn based ethanol production would remain profitable even with a modestly lower blender’s tax credit.”

Darrel Good says if the market needs 13 bil. bu. for the year beginning in Sept., then the 2008 crop has to reach 12.7 bil. bu., and that would require a nearly 161 bu. average yield from nearly perfect weather. He’s expecting planted acreage to exceed the March USDA estimates. Knowing the grain trade closely follows the weekly crop reports, Good says the market believes planting will speed up because farmers can plant more acres per day.

Research shows most of the time that trendline-adjusted corn crop yields are below average in La Nina years with a less chance for wheat and more likely average or above average yields on soybeans, says Jim Noel at Ohio State. “The data still supports a trend to drier than average for late May and June, but it does looks like at least average rain the next 2 weeks with small areas of above average rainfall mainly in the north.”

The western two-thirds of the Cornbelt are getting the most rainfall, says OSU weather specialist Jim Noel, “The western Cornbelt out towards Iowa, Wisconsin, So. Minnesota and NW. Illinois have been much, much wetter than Ohio and are being impacted even more. It appears the wettest areas will remain west of Ohio the next few weeks.”

How were 2007 yields? IL Extension economists report state averages were higher than trendline. Find the county details.
1) IL: 175 bu., 16 bu. above 2007 trend, with exceptional yields in nor. & cen. IL.
2) IN: 155 bu., 2 bu. above 2007 trend, with above average yields in eastern IN.
3) IA: 171 bu., 7 bu. above 2007 trend, eastern IA was above trend yield.
4) MN: 146 bu., 12 bu. below 2007 trend, with poor yields in central MN.
5) NE: 160 bu., 5 bu. above 2007 trend, no counties were very high or very low.
6) OH: 150 bu., 3 bu. above 2007 trend, good county yields except western OH.

Watch the growing degree days, not the calendar, says Extension’s Emerson Nafziger, who says it is too early to switch to an earlier-maturing corn hybrid, “Corn planted later also requires fewer growing degree days to reach maturity than the same hybrid planted early, which adds to the cushion. In general, then, hybrids on hand for planting should not be switched out for earlier ones unless planting goes into very late May.”

Will higher seeding rates payoff, even with hybrid corn that costs over $200 per bag. IA State agronomists analyzed current corn prices versus seed costs and populations:
1) Regardless of price, 36,000 population give maximum yield and net income.
2) The 30,000 rate gave a slightly lower return, if producers have to cut seed costs.
3) 42,000 and 48,000 rates have lower net returns for both 180 and 220 bu. yields.
4) A 24,000 rate lowers returns, but not as much as the 48,000 seeding rate.

If your soybean seeding rate exceeds 150,000 per acre, don’t expect much yield increase. IL Specialist Nafziger says 100,000 may be the population that produces the maximum yields under most conditions. He says the canopy is the key and with late planting reducing vegetative growth, narrower rows will grow a better canopy. Read Nafziger’s newsletter.

Wheat growers may not get much of a chance to plant doublecrop soybeans after taking out their wheat. The wheat crop is delayed along with everything else, so an early wheat harvest and longer growing period for soybeans has less likelihood. Nafziger says that will only happen if the temperature warms up, and he said that will hurt the wheat yield.

Which is first: planting or weed control? Mike Owen at IA State knows your concern, but says a pre-emergent weed control before planting is a priority, or at least apply it immediately after planting. He adds that winter annual weeds are a problem, and “Do not think you can eliminate the burndown herbicide treatments in pre-emergence applications unless tillage has been conducted very close to the planting and spraying operations.”

Many farmers want to wait and apply Roundup after the crop and most weeds emerge. But Owen grits his teeth at that. “There are concerns that these treatments are being marketed as a 1-pass treatment that will provide season-long weed control. This is unlikely and plan on a timely second application of something postemergence.”

Shake up your herbicide program, says Mich. State agronomist Wes Everman, “Plan to use herbicide programs that account for deficiencies in last year’s weed control program. Weed escapes the prior year can leave hundreds or thousands of weed seeds in the soil seed bank. Using the same herbicide program 2 years in a row can potentially compound the problem creating greater weed populations and weed control issues in the future.”

Armyworms are on the march out of KY into southern IN & IL and have found forage and wheatfields to their liking. It has been about 7 years since the last invasion, and IL Extension entomologists are urging producers not to depend on rescue recommendations from 2001, but get news ones. They say the cold wet weather may even enhance fungus that will control armyworms.

Many spring insect pests may be starving without fresh corn and beans. Entomologist Mike Gray says every specie is different and life cycles must be considered separately.
1) Rootworms may starve if corn planting is delayed until late May.
2) Corn borers may not be a problem, but late planting helps the second generation.
3) Cutworms can thrive on weeds in untilled fields until corn begins to emerge.
4) Annual white grub injury should be limited, but their development could be delayed.
5) Wireworms may remain in the upper (warmer) soil layer and damage seedlings.
6) Seedcorn maggot injury may be magnified by late planting in cool, wet soils.

Is soybean rust a non-issue for you? If so, IL Extension crop specialist Robert Bellm says it is a bit early for that attitude. He says all soybeans are suitable hosts along with the Cornbelt environment, but weather patterns the past 3 years have not been conducive. He says field scouting pays off, and the protective management tools are accessible. Keep up to date by monitoring the official USDA rust site.

It is the grilling season, and pork and beef producers know that because of the typical 10-20% rise in prices in late April. Shane Ellis at Iowa State says it is unfortunate that hog prices are still $10 below breakeven levels. He believes beef prices will stay below $100 because price-conscious consumers are buying cheaper pork and poultry.

And Iowa State’s Ellis says producers need to be aware of dynamics. “In general, consumers are looking for cheaper products as the cost of food and fuel escalates. This means lower demand for higher priced well finished beef and sustained strong demand for pork. For producers even the best forecasted prices of the spring and summer will still not be enough to offset the impact that feed costs have made to the bottom line.”

While watching consumer demand, don’t forget exports, which MO livestock experts say is up. “Demand for live hogs for the first 3 months of 2008 was up a whopping 8% from the same months in 2007. For these 3 months, the demand for live fed cattle was up 0.2% from a year earlier. The large increase in live hog demand was due to the sharply higher pork exports in 2008 than in 2007. The stronger cattle market and consumer demand for beef was also largely a result of larger exports and smaller imports.”