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April 30, 2008
The CRP: Keep It, Plant It, Or What?
Grain prices are telling Cornbelt farmers to plant every acre possible; whether that is corn, beans, wheat, hay, or whatever, there will be a good market for it. It seems increased demand for corn has squeezed acreage for other crops while global demand is increasing. So where do we find more land to plant? Well, at one time, about 35 million more acres were planted, but they are now in the CRP. What are the options here?
Despite a doubling of grain prices in the past year, planted acreage is only going to increase about 1% in 2008, and only 2.5% compared to 2006 planted acreage, when prices were well below current values. Iowa State University economists Bruce Babcock and Chad Hart say the lack of an acreage response to the higher prices indicates why biofuels have had the significant impact on commodity prices. And those higher prices will not fall until planted acreage increases.
With global food prices up, planted acreage will increase in many countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Africa, and Eastern Europe, where land has been idled until now. In the US, over 35 million acres of land remains idled in the Conservation Reserve. But Babcock and Hart content that as CRP contracts expire, the land will return to production because revenue will exceed CRP contracts. That is a bit of the opposite when the CRP was created in 1986 and it was a secondary land retirement program designed to stabilize grain and land prices in the mid-1980’s recession.
As CRP contracts expire yearly, some will be renewed but Babcock and Hart suggest that owners will not opt for renewal to return the land into crops. And they surmise that might be as many as 20 million acres returned to cropland. Other owners will pay the penalty to break their CRP contracts, however penalties are stiff for the original CRP contracts, but minimal for CRP contracts just signed. Among the recently signed CRP contracts, the length of the contract related to the environmental sensitivity of the land. Ironically, the most environmentally sensitive land which received the longest contracts, would make the most sense for an early breaking of the contracts to allow planting.
Perennially, USDA receives pressure from livestock owners and the grain handling industry to phase out the CRP so more grain will be produced and grain prices can fall. That will likely recur this year, while environmental groups continue to lobby for CRP expansion. But Babcock and Hart contend that high grain prices will cause many CRP landowners to suffer the financial penalty and plant their land. If that is the inevitability, Babcock and Hart suggest:
1) USDA should reduce penalties for breaking contracts on the land that will expire in the next three years, which will not be as environmentally sensitive.
2) Some CRP landowners who just re-enrolled environmentally sensitive land will probably break their contracts to allow planting.
3) If USDA sees it is losing control of environmentally sensitive land, it could take new bids on the land, to enable that land to remain out of production, but at a higher cost that more closely parallels current land prices.
4) Re-bidding the land would also allow control over the environmentally sensitive land while opening up less sensitive land to grain production that satisfies the livestock industry.
Babcock and Hart acknowledge that re-bidding the CRP would draw criticism, but it would also address the needs of agriculture to provide both food and fuel at the same time. It would also keep expanded production in the US, rather than have it default to other countries.
Summary:
The Conservation Reserve has locked up 35 million acres that were once in production and could be returned to production to meet the food and fuel needs of the nation. However a systematic approach would be a re-bidding of the CRP contracts to return land to production that is less environmentally sensitive, but keep the most environmentally sensitive land in the CRP at contract prices parallel to current land values. Such a system would increase planted acreage more than 6% at a time when greater production is needed.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:15 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink
April 29, 2008
Will Your Nitrogen Application Be Wasted Or Will Your Crop Be Starved?
You have probably decided on your cropping pattern and crop rotation for the year, but some of those follow up issues need some attention. Such as fertility and nitrogen issues. With the high cost, your decision needs to either pay in more yield or save unneeded expense. The fact that many producers have opted out of a 50-50 corn and soybean rotation means more problems to solve.
Scott Murrell Northcentral Director of the International Plant Nutrient Institute at West Lafayette, IN, says many nitrogen issues arise when switching between a corn-corn rotation and a corn-soybean rotation. His presentation at the 2008 University of Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference indicated several factors to consider:
1) Agronomists in most Cornbelt states use a constant figure of 30 to 45 lbs of nitrogen per acre left from the prior year soybean crop. Other states use a credit of one-half pound to one pound per bushel of yield. And without a prior soybean crop the credit is lost.
2) Since soybeans scavenge nitrogen from the soil, the absence of a soybean crop means a corn-corn rotation will have some residual nitrogen to use, and the drier the year the more that is present. A soil test can confirm the amount and save money on over application.
3) University research indicates a corn-corn rotation will yield less than a corn-soybean rotation with similar management. And if yields have decreased, nitrogen rates will need to be adjusted downward if yield is used as the factor to determine application rates.
4) Tests can be conducted on the corn crop to determine nitrogen use, such as a chlorophyll meter to test for nutrition problems, and a stalk nitrate test at the end of the season to assess appropriateness of the nitrogen rates used.
Shifting rotations can also impact soil pH levels, since nitrogen has a long term acidifying effect on the soil. (The initial reaction is alkaline, but eventually switches.)
1) In nitrification, ammonium-N converts to nitrate-N, and the source of the ammonium, which is usually anhydrous ammonia, is more acidic.
2) The leaching of nitrates leaves more acidic cations in the surface of the soil.
3) The volatilization of anhydrous ammonia creates an acid.
Murrell says the soil will determine whether acidification will occur when rotational shifts are made. Some Iowa tests found no change after 23 and 48 years. Nebraska tests found a change after 14 years. So the lesson is to closely monitor soil pH after shifts are made in rotations. Another consideration is the balance of other soil nutrients. Murrell says, “A CC sequence removes more phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg), and sulfur (S) than a CS sequence but less N and potassium (K). Just how large such differences are depends on the yield levels of each crop.”
Summary:
With soybeans supplying nitrogen and corn using nitrogen, Cornbelt farmers who are shifting cropping patterns due to market prices need to monitor nitrogen more closely than in their normal cropping pattern. Shifts in the amount of nitrogen used will possibly chance the soil pH and change the balance of other soil nutrients. However, the major factor is to avoid an over-application of nitrogen that is unneeded, or to ensure enough nitrogen is being applied to maintain optimum economic yields.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:37 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 28, 2008
Sinks, Cycles, and Laughing Gas
The Cornbelt is ready for Mother Nature to warm up and dry out in the short term so corn can be planted. But in the long term, warming up and drying out would not be your preferred forecast. The idea of global warming has become a lightning rod issue that has polarized many people, including some in agriculture. Whether you believe that mankind is responsible for rising temperatures or they are part of a periodic change in climate is your own decision. But any change in the climate will have an impact on agriculture and that is where we are going today.
For millions of years the Earth has been warming up, then cooling off, then warming up again. The average cycle fluctuates about 18-22 degrees Fahrenheit, which typically happens over thousands of years and is not noticeable without scientific data. A collector of that is Eugene Takle, meteorology researcher at Iowa State University. He and ag economist Don Hofstrand have created a series of report in the Ag Decision Maker.
In the February newsletter they report global warming over the past 15,000 years and expect a gradual decline over the next 70-80,000 years and they say carbon dioxide and methane concentrations go up and down with the temperature. Based on the concentrations of those gases as found where nature collects them, temperatures had been declining over the past 1,000 years, but began a rapid climb upward about 100 years ago. Solar sunspot activity has contributed to warming and volcanic activity has contributed to cooling; but concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have added to the warming since 1960. Takle and Hofstrand say, “By themselves the natural factors do not account for the rise in global temperatures since 1960. Only when they are combined with the (human origins) of greenhouse gases and sulfate does the model predict relatively accurately the actual temperature levels. This leads us to believe that (human origin) factors have a significant role in the recent increase in global temperature.”
Takle and Hofstrand say in the March newsletter that warmer global temperatures “will have a profound impact on global agriculture.” But they are unsure of the impact on the Midwest. Their focus is on role of greenhouse gases, which include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and water vapor being the most prevalent. Recalling your high school science class on the carbon cycle, keep in mind that it fluctuates over time from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to carbon locked in the ground from growing plants that absorb it. As the plant dies, microbes break it down, combine the carbon with oxygen and it is returned to the atmosphere. The use of coal and oil for energy production also returns carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
Each of the greenhouse gases stays in the atmosphere varying amounts of time and also has a varying ability to warm the atmosphere. Takle says levels of the gases in the atmosphere are increasing, and he believes the atmosphere contains more carbon dioxide than at any time in the past 420,000 years. If the current trend continues, which began at 310 parts per million in 1960, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere will be about 950 parts per million by the end of this century. Based on its ability to cause higher temperatures, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will cause temperatures to rise as well. Takle estimates it will rise as much as 4 degrees by 2030, and as much as 18 degrees over the next 100 years. But he says the increase will not be distributed evenly around the Earth, and the warming tends to be concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, interspersed with ocean regions that cooled somewhat.
The April newsletter says the electric power industry creates over 33% of greenhouse gas emissions, followed by 28% for transportation, 19% for industry, and 8% for agriculture. But how does agriculture emit greenhouse gas? Takle and Hofstrand point to several sources:
1) Nitrous oxide makes up about 60% of the greenhouse gases originating from agricultural sources. And you probably are thinking, “Where does laughing gas used by my dentist originate on my farm?” Nitrous oxide is produced by soil microbes which break down nitrogen fertilizers into a form usable by your corn crop. While nitrogen is required for profitable corn production, more efficient management of application practices can reduce the nitrous oxide that is emitted into the atmosphere.
2) Methane is produced as part of the normal digestive process of livestock. Microbes ferment the feed and methane is released in the rumen of cattle. Iowa State says generally, lower quality feed and higher feed intake lead to higher methane emissions.
3) Methane is also produced during the decomposition of manure in lagoons, tanks, or pits where there is no oxygen present. On a field, the manure will decompose with oxygen and methane is not produced. With improved application technology, manure can be spread on fields with reduced methane production. Or the alternative is to capture the methane produced by manure pits, and burned as an energy source.
4) The use of diesel fuel and gasoline in tractors, combines, trucks, and other farm power equipment burns fossil fuel, and releases carbon. An increased reliance on alternative fuels will reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
5) The flooding of rice paddies restricts underwater decomposition to the anaerobic system described in the section on manure. That decomposition at the bottom of a flooded rice paddy will produce methane.
A carbon sink is the storage of carbon in another form. Underground coal veins and crude oil deposits are carbon sinks formed when plant material was buried, and the decomposition did not allow carbon to be emitted into the air. Carbon sinks can be formed with the development of forests, since the wood in the tree contains carbon. Burning the wood or letting it decompose puts the carbon back in the air, but using the wood for building material converts the carbon into the structure for a home.
A different carbon sink is the organic matter in the topsoil created from prairie grasses. Conventional tillage allows the carbon to oxidize and be released into the air. However, increased conservation tillage has allowed equilibrium to be reached between release of carbon and depositing the carbon from crop residue. This practice allows farmers to obtain payments from carbon credits that are sold to emitters of carbon such as power plants.
Summary:
The release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has the potential to increase the atmospheric temperature over time. While agriculture is a relatively low emitter of greenhouse gases, there are a number of practices that can be undertaken to reduce those emissions, and even convert agriculture into a carbon storage industry which could generate revenue for farms.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:43 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink
April 25, 2008
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
Price relationships have changed between corn and beans since the USDA intentions report, says marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Mich. St., and he says it favors corn now, but weather is still a threat for a reversal. He says producers need to keep more in corn than the USDA forecast, because the US will have less carryout at the end of the year.
Hilker says make some forward contracts if you can to lock in prices for your 2008 corn. Recognizing the fact some elevators will not offer forward pricing, he says farmers may have to use the options market. He knows put options are expensive, but offer downside protection from deep drops. He also says selling a call option reduces the cost of the put.
Regarding soybeans, Hilker says, “If you look at new crop soybean prices only being twice new crop corn prices, versus a more normal 2.3-2.5, even with the high fertilizer prices, that means higher returns to corn per acre for most producers.” And he adds, “It is hard for me to explain soybean prices given the projected world stocks. Does the market know something we don't?” Read more.
Cowboys still have a long trail ahead of them when you consider the observations of Purdue economist Chris Hurt. He expects slaughter cattle prices to remain in the $90 range for the balance of the year, and doubts fundamentals can support the late 2008 futures prices that are above $100. Production was up 3% in the first quarter and is up 7% in April, a rise due to higher feedlot placements last fall when corn was cheaper.
Chris’s crystal ball says the beef herd is getting smaller, with cow and heifer slaughter rates up and an increased number of heifers in feedlots. He thinks the trend will continue because of poor returns. However, an easing of the drought in the southeast will make some producers re-think downsizing plans. But he says there is dryness in the west. Read his newsletter.
Hog producers lost $39/hd on March hogs, the most since the $36 loses of June 2002, but not as much as the $68 losses in late 1998. Since the $47/hd profits of June 2006, hogs have recorded an $87/hd reversal in 21 months. Iowa State calculated the numbers and attributed the losses to rising feed costs and record high market volumes.
What is the summer outlook? Iowa State livestock economists say, “April projections suggest a slight reduction in losses as the hog market enters the seasonally stronger summer market. However, feed inputs continue to become more expensive, suggesting more significant losses after the summer months when hog prices turn seasonally lower.”
Celebrate! 2008 will be the 17th consecutive year of record pork exports. Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain at MO Extension say Feb. exports were 57% higher, helped by Canada being up 37%, Russia up 163%, China up 361%. 17% of US production was exported in February, explaining most of the larger live hog demand growth in recent months.
Canadian economics. MO pork economists report hundreds of thousands of weanling pigs in Canada are being killed because there will not be a US market for them under terms of US Country of Origin Labeling. Intended US feeders are breaking contracts to buy the pigs, so they are being destroyed as a result of having too little value in Canada.
You may not have any corn planted, but take solace in the view of IL Extension specialist Emerson Nafziger, who says, “Corn that has been planted early into cool soils has not benefited much from that up to now.” He provides a launch day check list:
1) Check your fields, there are a few spots you might say “Its drier than I thought.”
2) Your planter and other equipment should be in shape, but it probably already is.
3) Tilling wet soil produces clods and a poor seedbed. Tillage will not help soil dry deep.
4) When the soil is dry, planting is a higher priority than applying pre-plant fertilizer.
5) You are probably not going to plant too fast to reduce yield from poor seed placement.
6) It takes 110-120 GGD from planting to emergence, but that is not always uniform.
7) Even by planting in early May, yield loss will only be 5-10 bu. compared to mid-April.
Planning your Bt refuge should be a priority. Purdue researchers say, “Striping the refuge within the field better mixes the emerging beetle populations, potentially delaying insect resistance.” And they say using your neighbor’s field is not acceptable.
Protecting your Bt refuge from attack by corn rootworm is another priority.
1) New John Deere planters have eliminated granular insecticide boxes, but can be retrofitted for liquid soil insecticides, or SmartBox® systems that are light enough.
2) Splitting the planter with Cruiser Rootworm or Poncho 1250 seed-applied insecticides is possible with row seed boxes, but may not be possible with bulk seed boxes.
3) Low rates of the seed-applied insecticides do not control rootworms. Rootworm product efficacy should be considered depending on the anticipated risk to damage.
4) Liquid soil insecticides and seed-applied insecticides frequently perform poorly under high rootworm pressure. Granular insecticides are preferred in fields under high pressure.
Scout your corn fields intensely between May 12 and 20. You’ll be seeing black cutworms, based on the recent captures of adults from the southern tip of Illinois to the Wisconsin border. Entomologists predicted the date range based on egg laying and hatch
schedules. Also, armyworm adults have been trapped in the southern half of Illinois. Even though you may be focused on corn planting, take a moment to scout for damage.
“The difference between killing weeds and managing weeds is $$$ at the end of the year,” says Mike Owen at Iowa State. Despite the mad rush to plant, Owen says give serious consideration to applying a pre-emergent herbicide to provide early season and residual control in fields were weeds germinate first and have heavy populations.
A delayed herbicide application with glyphosate can be effective, but Owen says timing is critically important, and if it is done too late, money is lost because crop yield is suppressed. And he says such a treatment is unlikely successful as a 1-pass treatment.
Can you calculate Growing Degree Days? With the onset of the growing season, crop and insect development will depend on GDD’s, and you’ll need to know how to total them.
1) Average the high temp and 50 F. then subtract 50 for the GGD total for that day.
2) If the low is under 50 F., use 50, since no growth occurs under 50 F.
3) If the low temperature is above 50 F., use that, but still subtract 50 F.
4) Total the daily increments, as the Growing Degree Days accumulate during the year.
Flea beetles should be on your checklist. After your corn is emerged, look for the black specks that not only resemble fleas, but spread Stewart’s Wilt to susceptible varieties, including inbreds and sweet corn. Their prevalence is based on average winter temperatures, and anything above 30 F, could have moderate to severe disease problems.
You’ve paid a lot of money for a herbicide pre-mix, but the label only gives one rate and you want the flexibility to adjust that rate. How do you calculate the rate? IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager has calculated the active ingredients for 38 corn herbicide premixes and 19 for beans. He makes it easy, but it is also some good mental exercise for that math student at home.
Are you reducing soybean production costs by cutting back on the seeding rate? MN agronomist Seth Naeve reminds that population does not create yield, but soybean stands must be large enough to intercept the maximum amount of light, and maximum yields require sufficient population to create more nodes for pod growth. “More plants allow more potential places for seed to set and mature. For this reason, the minimum plant stand at harvest to maximize yield is the critical number to strive for.”
If you are planting no-till beans will there be the required 7 days between your burndown application and the planting date? That is the concern of Ohio St. agronomist Mark Loux, who says the short time usually means the elimination of the 2,4-D ester combination with glyphosate. But he says it is too effective to pass up. He offers extensive advice on 2,4-D and no-till corn and beans.
The window for topdressing wheat may be closing within days, say agronomists in IN and OH, since the wheat crop may be further along than it would appear to be. Node inspection indicates the stage of growth, and they say failure to check may lead to poor timing of applications which can violate labels, give poor weed control, or injure crops.
A tax-deductible trip to Florida? Check with your tax advisor, then plan to attend an Aug. 12 & 13 seminar at the Univ. of FL research center to get hands-on ID training for Asian soybean rust. And there is bio-security to prevent it from going home. Register.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:05 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 24, 2008
True or False: Ethanol Can Be Credited For The Current Price Of Corn?
There are some people who like ethanol and there are others who do not like ethanol. While it is wrapped in the American flag, it has its detractors, and there are an increasing number who blame ethanol for higher food prices. That is a jump over a sizable chasm, since the price of corn is in the middle of that leap. While higher corn prices may or may not have lead to higher food prices, ethanol demand has lead to higher corn prices. But by how much?
Ethanol production has grown exponentially in the past several years, and thanks to higher oil prices, ethanol refineries can remain profitable despite $6 corn prices. The 20% share of the US corn crop that went into ethanol last year will reach 30% in the coming year. However, the demand for corn to feed ethanol plants has created hardships for other users of corn. An estimate of the impact of ethanol on corn prices has been calculated by University of Wisconsin economists T. Randall Fortenbery and Hwanil Park.
Quite a few recent economic estimates have been offered:
1) 154,000 acres of North Dakota corn could be obtained for ethanol with an 11¢ premium.
2) 4.67 billion gallons of ethanol production by 2010 would raise corn prices by 18%.
3) Corn prices are 12.5¢ higher at ethanol plant sites.
4) Corn prices might increase 5¢ as much as 150 miles from an ethanol plant.
5) Corn prices would average $3 per bushel in 2014 if 14 billion gallons are produced.
Nevertheless, the Wisconsin economists look at the supply and demand factors in the corn market to develop the ethanol impact, by identify how each of the demand factors such as feed, seed, and exports individually affected the corn price. They determined that a 1% increase in ethanol production causes a 0.16% increase in the corn price in the short run. Applied to current prices, they said, “Since ethanol production capacity essentially doubled between the first two quarters of the last and current marketing years, the model results above suggest that ethanol’s contribution to the price rise was about 41¢ per bushel. This would have resulted in an average 2007/2008 first quarter price of $2.95 per bushel had nothing else changed.”
While $2.95 is much lower than corn prices actually were last fall, the economists believe that a competing demand from a hot export industry also contributed to the higher prices of last winter and spring. During that period, corn exports grew 15% over the prior year as USDA had to continually raise its estimates, and that added another 10¢. But that still does not account for the entire price.
The Wisconsin economists suggest that speculative traders, who increased their long positions, helped push up the prices of corn to levels seen today. Some farmers may not be surprised at that, but critics of rising food prices may be surprised.
Summary:
Rising corn prices in the past year have been attributed, in part, to the increasing demand for ethanol. Looking at the impact that all uses of corn have on its price, ethanol can take credit (or blame) for about 41¢ per bushel, raising the price to nearly $3.00 per bushel. However, other factors, including a strong export demand has added only 10¢ to the price, leaving the increased price of corn to the credit of speculators who take long positions in the market and push up prices as they buy futures contracts.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:35 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 23, 2008
And Where Did Your Farm Score Financially In 2008?
Neither you nor your ancestors had a year quite like 2007. High yields and high prices offset high production costs, and as a result returns to labor and management were higher for farmers in almost all soil types. This comes as no surprise to your corner of the Cornbelt, but your neighbors were having the same type of year and the statistics are there to show it.
Taking a slice out of the middle of the Cornbelt, economist Dale Lattz at the University of Illinois examined the farm records of 2,748 grain and livestock operations. In addition to the grain operations, hog returns were lower because of feed costs, but dairy returns were higher despite high feed costs, and that resulted from higher milk prices.
Farm wages, formally known as return to operator labor and management, averaged $171,507. Find yours by taking your net farm income, then subtracting a fair return to your equity in machinery and land. The statewide average was nearly $100,000 higher than 2006 and about $88,000 above the five year average. The labor and management return statistic has fluctuated as low as $38,707 in 2005, up to the $171,507 of 2007.
So what contributed to your farm wage:
1) The average corn yield was the highest on record, and the average soybean yield was the fourth highest. The year end inventory price of corn was $3.75 and soybeans were $10.00. However, average sales prices were above those inventory prices. Crop returns average $657 per acres, and were an all time high.
2) Grain farms averaged a return to labor and management above $183,000, compared to dairy farms at $117,000, beef farms at $55,000, and hog farms at $52,000.
3) Government farm program payments contributed very little, and were the least since 1996; and totaled 3-4% of gross farm income. Compare that to 20% for 2005.
And what reduced your farm wage:
1) Per acre crop costs averaged $144.87, about $20 more than 2006. That was due to higher costs for fertilizer, seed, and pesticides. Fertilizer prices are up 70% from 2003, seed up 53%, but pesticides were down 1%. Fuel and oil averaged $21.03 per acre, twice the amount in 2003.
2) Costs per bushel increased for both corn and soybeans, and the statewide average was $542 and $416 respectively. Farms producing 190 bushels per acre averaged $2.85 cost per bushel and $8.14 for soybeans on farms averaging 51 bushels per acre. Over the past five years, the average cost is $2.66 for corn and $7.34 for beans.
3) All livestock enterprises experience substantially higher feed costs than previously, and were the main reason for hog returns that were lower than 2006. Farrow to finish producers averaged $7-8 per head below breakeven levels. Dairy returns were $2,360 above feed costs per cow, helped by milk prices that were 38% higher than 2006. Slaughter cattle prices received were $18 per CWT lower than the price paid for replacement cattle, and returns were the least for the past five years.
And what are the prospects for 2008:
1) Grain prices continue to be high into the fall delivery period.
2) With high yields, earnings should continue to be good.
3) Significant cost increases, particularly for fertilizer, will occur.
4) Increased cash rent payments will cut into operator revenue.
5) High feed costs will continue to challenge feeding operations.
6) Accurate financial planning will be required, along with risk management tools.
Summary:
With high yields and high prices, 2007 brought the highest farm income ever with an average return to labor and management about $100,000 more than 2006. However a trend toward higher grain production costs and livestock feeds can easily shift the record revenue to lower levels. Economists are warning about higher production cost for 2008, along with higher cash rents and higher feed costs. They urge farmers to closely monitor cash flow and use risk management tools.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:27 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 22, 2008
Treat Your Seed Beans Like Grandma's Crystal
When you fill your planter this spring with seed beans, will you be planting a $12-$15 crop, or will you be burying seed, never to be seen again? That is a frightful thought, given the investment you are making in planting soybeans, and particularly if you have your crop booked at the premium prices being offered earlier this year. But this is the year that soybeans could face a serious production challenge.
A few years back movie goers were entertained, thrilled, and terrified by “The Perfect Storm.” That is the label being applied to the 2008 soybean crop by agronomist Palle Pedersen and plant pathologist Alison Robertson of Iowa State University. Their concern: soybean seedling disease. Your concern: soybean seedling disease, also.
The whole issue really begins last year in soybean seed production fields managed by many different seed companies. Environmental issues reduced the vitality of the seed coat, and through the conditioning process over the winter, seed beans are not in the best of shape. The Iowa State specialists warn that the lower quality seed results from a variety of factors that all converged on 2008:
1) Increased demand for seed beans because of more acres to be planted.
2) Fewer quality seeds because of increased rejection of seed last fall.
3) High prevalence of seedborne fungal infections
4) Lower germination rate due to the thin seed coat cracking during conditioning.
They are quick to say that if the germination rate is low due to fungus, that can be addressed with a seed treatment. The damaged seed coat cannot be glued back together.
The diseases your soybean crop faces are the common ones that you see every year:
1) Phytophthora, Pythium, Rhizoctonia, and Fusarium all come from the soil.
2) Phytophthora and Pythium like wet soils.
3) Rhizoctonia and Fusarium like dry soils.
4) Pythium likes cool soils
5) Phytophthora likes warm soils.
6) Rhizoctonia likes warmer, still, soils.
Iowa State specialists say if the germination is less than 90%, then the seeding rate needs to be adjust upward to compensate. Unfortunately, the amount of adjustment is difficult to gauge because of all of the other factors, such as the soil borne diseases.
Since you have booked your beans for a premium price, you have a larger margin in your production costs possibly, so you might consider a fungicide seed treatment. But what should be used? They all do a job, but are not all equal, and do not fight the same fungal problems:
1) If you have Pythium and Phytophthora, then use metalaxyl or mefenoxam.
2) If you have Fusarium, Phomopsis or Rhuzoctonia, then use azoxystrobin, captan, carboxin, fludioxonil, PCNB, thiram or thiabendazaole.
3) If you don’t know what fungal problems you have had in the past, use a combination treatment.
Pederson and Robertson want you remember, “Fungicide seed treatments will not improve germination of seed that has poor quality and lower germination as a result of mechanical damage because of a thin seed coat, cracked seed coat and other physiological factors.” They are unaware of any data that shows germination rates are lowered as a result of pre-treatment, but warn that fragile seed can be further damaged during treatment.
Finally, they offer a checklist that will help you work toward success:
1) Get a good stand and avoid having to replant, since that lowers yield potential.
2) Know the condition of the seed, particularly the germination of your seed lot.
3) Be patient and do not plant into cold, wet soils.
4) Consider a fungicide seed treatment and avoid “the perfect storm.”
Summary:
There is an increased risk to the vigor of the soybean crop because of poor seed coats that might have been damaged, as well as the increased chance for soil borne fungal diseases. Knowing the fungus that has been in your soybean field in the past will help choose a fungicide seed treatment, which is recommended, due to the fragile nature of the seed.
Be patient in planting, and avoid cold wet soils, which may foster fungal problems.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:29 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 21, 2008
Retirement? Now? Really, I Never Gave It A Thought. But, Hmmm?
Michael Jordan retired at the top of his game. A good friend in his 50’s also says it may be that time. More revenue has been earned than ever before. All debts have been repaid. Land values are quite high. Some farmers may think the fun is just starting. Others may think this is a good time to hang it up before something goes terribly wrong. If you are in that latter category, transition planning is your next step.
Always looking out for the Cornbelt farmer, the farm gate blog fell into a wealth of material about farm organizational planning, farm business development resources, and farm transition planning all neatly packaged by the Ohio State Ag Manager. Let’s focus on the issue at hand, and that is to think about the questions that need answers if you are at the departure gate waiting for the next flight to retirement.
If your retirement shifts the operational responsibilities to the next generation, then you probably need to have a family meeting. But what does that entail? It is not to discuss seed, machinery, or the next family picnic, but to determine long term plans for operation and management of the business. “Son, your mother and I plan to retire at the end of the year, and I know this will come as no surprise to you since we have discussed this timetable twice a year for the past 5 years.” With that regular item on the agenda, there should be few unanswered questions. Family meetings need to be honest, open, and involving everyone so even youngsters can see how strong the family business is planned.
Estate planning is one of those things that is difficult to start, but never too late to start. On the other hand, it is never too early to start, and can become a typical conversation element once everyone is comfortable discussing “the inevitable.” Estate planning is different for every family, but the main elements are the same for all, and they include wills, life insurance, disposal of property, and even such significant matters as nursing home expense, and possibly trusts.
If retirement is looming, and you are uncertain about your readiness, a retirement estimator for farm families will help gauge expenses and your overall preparedness. Of course, in retirement your needs in certain areas may be less (work clothes, tools, equipment), but your needs may be more (medical costs) after retirement. Farm families which may be far from retirement should always begin planning for that day, such as saving more for retirement. Planning guides are always helpful.
Summary:
Retirement is a big step in life, and can either be as fun or traumatic as going to first grade. But it is a step that requires a significant amount of homework, and probably the type of homework that involves a committee of your family, and those who will be taking over the farming operation. Current economic factors in agriculture can either push farmers into planning to stay in farming longer, or transitioning out faster than they once thought. However, retirement planning is necessary, regardless of your current age, family situation, financial affairs, or lifelong intentions.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:27 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 18, 2008
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
Even with Dec futures over $6.25, corn remains a commodity in demand. The latest export projection is for 2.5 bil. bu. and that is 18% larger than the last marketing year when prices were lower. IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good says the extra demand results from Chinese corn being unavailable to the Orient. But high prices have slowed demand from the ethanol industry, as the rate has slowed for new plants coming on line.
The demand for corn by the livestock industry remains strong, but Darrel Good said actual numbers are hard to reconcile because of possible errors in determining the size of the 2007 crop, and the shift to feed wheat and distillers dried grain when corn prices rose.
2008 corn acreage is still a question mark with the shift in prices before and after the USDA Prospective Planting Report. Good says some farmers may have rethought their plans, but now cold, wet conditions may reduce corn and increase bean acreage. Read his newsletter.
Diesel fuel costs continue to rise, and the NYMEX crude oil futures give an indication of what you’ll have to pay in coming months. Kansas St. economist Kevin Dhuyvetter says there is very little break in sight. This fall, count on prices 30-40% higher than last fall. Find his chart and graph.
Live hog weights are down 1.8 lbs, but dressed weights are up 1 lb., compared to a year ago says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes. “There have been trade reports that producers are making an effort to lower slaughter weights. It is difficult to pull weights down when hogs are gaining well. The seasonal pattern is for weights to top out near the end of a year or beginning of a year and reach a low in weight in July-August.”
The winter survival of corn rootworms depends on the temperature, and Purdue bug gurus say they probably did well this winter. “One common misconception is that a single “hard freeze” will wipe out many of the insects or eggs during the winter season. In fact, it often takes much more than this to make a difference to insect populations. For example, our key corn pest, the Western corn rootworm, which overwinters in the egg stage, requires a total of 35 days at or below 14ºF for large-scale egg mortality to occur.”
The winter survival of flea beetles also depends on cold temperatures, and Iowa State entomologists say the risk is negligible for them this year. The opinion is based on average temperatures December through February. Although flea beetles cause minimal crop damage themselves, they carry Stewart’s Wilt, which can devastate corn seedlings.
We are not to the point yet of losing yield on either corn or soybeans because of the late date. However, NE Extension provides an economic comparison to determine whether corn or beans should be planted first, if the planting season gets seriously delayed.
1) In NE corn yields drop 0.75% for each day after May 10. For 200 bu/ac corn this is 1.5 bu/day. With $5.00 corn that amounts to $7.50/ac/day; on 1000 acres this is $7500.
2) Soybean yields decrease from 1/4 to 5/8 bu/ac/day (average of 0.44 bu/ac/day or $5.28/ac/day for $12.00 soybeans) when planting after May 1 in eastern Nebraska.
So, what happens if planting is really delayed? OSU agronomists share their ideas:
1) Avoid tillage and planting is soils are wet, because of compaction penalties.
2) Planting date is only one of many factors that determine optimum corn yields.
3) Shift from pre-plant fertilizer and herbicide application to a post plant operation.
4) Keep tillage and other seedbed preparations to a minimum and hasten planting.
5) Don’t worry about switching hybrid maturities until late May.
6) With no or reduced tillage, increase seeding rate 10% for maximum population.
“Patience is important when it comes to planting corn in April!” That is the advice of Iowa State agronomists, who say 6% is the most corn ever planted in Iowa before mid April and that was in 2006. (But that jumped to 25% by the third week of April.) They believe there is plenty of time, and seed should not sit in cold, wet soils without a short term promise that better days lie ahead. After all, corn can be planted faster than ever.
With delayed corn planting, IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says black cutworms will be waiting, “Black cutworms could be a more widespread issue this year than in the past few years. People will have to sharpen their scouting skills and prepare for frequent scouting trips to keep up with rapidly developing cutworm larvae.”
If you are still worried about nitrogen loss before your corn gets planted, John Lory of MO Extension says soils are still too cold to have denitrification. “If nitrogen is not leaching, there is little chance for nitrogen loss right now. It's when soil temperatures are in the 60 to 70 degree range when rapid nitrogen loss happens. A late spring saturation event lasting 3-4 days is really when we see nitrogen loss from denitrification take off." Bone up on this.
If field crop insects have been bugging you, some answers to your questions will be available at: www.ipm.uiuc.edu/ontarget . The IL Extension website provides details of management trials for corn rootworm, black cutworm, and soybean aphids. Previews of insects moving into the Cornbelt can be found at two Extension websites:
1) University of Kentucky
2) University of Missouri
Whether you call them horseweeds or marestail, a growing number are becoming resistant to glyphosate. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager suggests solving that problem early, “Ideally, all horseweed should be controlled before planting, especially before planting beans.” Read more.
Depending on the weeds growing in your fields, some burndown herbicides will work and others will not. Regardless where you farm in the Cornbelt, find an efficacy rating for a wide range of chemicals.
If you are chewing nails over glyphosate prices, consider the philosophy of WI weed specialist Chris Boerboom, who says, “The goal of a weed management program is to protect yield. The old saying about being penny wise and pound foolish certainly applies to weed management. Herbicides are a wise investment. This investment may now include more than just glyphosate.” He says consider alternatives for good weed control.
There may be no escaping Asian rust, since spores were found last year as far north as Minnesota. Rust was detected in Iowa, but with no impact on crop production. While no rust was found in Minnesota, the spores did arrive, but did not get the chance to affect the crop, even though they arrived as early as June 22. Conditions were just not favorable for development of the disease says MN Extension pathologist Dean Malvick. In Iowa, the early warning system is being changed, to speed up the identification process for Asian rust. The 700 First Detectors will not have to identify it, just deliver it to Iowa State.
Wheat is breaking dormancy, and it is time to make a stand count. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison suggests checking the crown to see if it is in good condition. “Dig shovelful "plugs" of soil and wheat. Put them in a sunny, cool area (unheated enclosed porch) and check the crowns in about a week.” Live crowns produce new leaves.
You probably carry hail insurance and MO climatologist Pat Guinan says property and crop losses from hail exceed $2 bil. annually and represent 1-2% of crop value. But, that amount rises to 5-6% of the crop value produced in the High Plains. Learn about the biggest hailstone.
Illinois may soon join other states that have experienced significant downsizing in their Extension staff. Personnel layoffs are scheduled to begin after May 1 that will impact 450 county-level educators, program and support staff. Expected state funding of more than $12 mil. has been used to expand state-funded health programs and isn’t available. IL agriculture will be losing a wealth of institutional knowledge and dedicated educators.
Illinois state budget cuts also will eliminate county-level SWCD offices, which begin closing May 2. Also being terminated is the AgrAbility program that provides services to disabled farmers, the Council on Food and Agricultural Research, and the Grape and Wine Resources Council. The Governor had earlier vetoed funds for 29 4-H educators.
Hit several birds with one stone by implementing the idea of an OSU Extension specialist, which addresses crop production expense, environmental issues and others.
1) Capture ammonia emissions from livestock manure pits to prevent unintended release.
2) Convert the ammonia into nitrogen fertilizer for crops and reduce production expense.
3) Try to figure out why this simple idea has not been implemented previously.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:03 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 17, 2008
Is The Rest Of The Cornbelt Still In The Machine Shed With You?
How are the ponds in your field? Are you wet or dry, or is that a silly question. USDA began the week with the first weekly crop update, but it did not say much because of the moisture throughout the Cornbelt that has kept most farmers out of the field. From a bird’s eye view, we’ll tour the Cornbelt and check on soil moisture and get a crop report.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service keeps track of progress throughout the growing season.
ILLINOIS: Not much was accomplished last week, since the state averaged about one hour suitable for any fieldwork. Topsoil moisture is 72% surplus. Oat planting is 13%, but the 5 year average is 60% by this time. 87% of the winter wheat is fair to good. Wet fields, flooding, and above average rainfall has been the norm so far.
INDIANA: Only 6 hours reported suitable for fieldwork last week for a statewide average, with 74% of the topsoil having surplus moisture. 82% of the winter wheat is fair to good. Some nitrogen has been applied to wheat where possible, but some producers have used aerial equipment.
IOWA: Last week provided less than a half day suitable for fieldwork across Iowa. Topsoil moisture is 53% surplus and 47% adequate, with 62% of the subsoil having adequate moisture. 55% of fertilizer applications are complete, but windy, wet conditions have kept producers out of the fields. Rural roads are becoming a problem for grain trucks because of poor weather and surface conditions.
KANSAS: Farmers had 2.2 days suitable for fieldwork last week, because of drier soils, which are reported 66% adequate moisture and only 24% surplus. 23% of the wheat is jointed, compared to 75% last year, and 72% of it is in fair to good condition. So far very little of the wheat has not suffered any wind or freeze damage. Some corn planting has begun. 92% of the oats are planted and 73% of the pasture is fair to good condition, with forage supplies rated 79% adequate.
MICHIGAN: 1 day was suitable for fieldwork in the past week, since 65% of the topsoil has surplus moisture. Subsoil moisture is 98% adequate to surplus. The weather has been overly wet and cool and saturated fields have hindered any field operations. Pasture conditions are 70% fair to good, but soggy.
MINNESOTA: Only a couple hours were suitable for fieldwork last week. Topsoil moisture is rated 63% adequate and 31% surplus, with the subsoil moisture about the same. 2% of corn ground and 1% of bean has been worked, which is about average. A 10+ inch snow has set fieldwork back a bit, with 30 inches in some northern locations last Friday.
MISSOURI: Nearly a day was suitable for fieldwork last week, in part because of cold, rainy conditions and soil moisture that is 54% surplus and 46% adequate. Tillage is 16% complete compared to a 54% five year average. Pastures are 68% fair to good. The only progress being made in fieldwork is in western MO, but southeastern MO reports flooding conditions that have destroyed wheat.
NEBRASKA: A strong 2 days were available for fieldwork last week due to drier soils than the eastern Cornbelt. 65% of the soil reportedly has adequate moisture and only 20% has surplus moisture. The subsoil is a bit drier. 38% of the oats have been planted; and 86% of the wheat is fair to good. The past week brought some heavy rains and up to a foot of snow in some locations. But cold soils have prevented planting, germination, and good plant growth. Livestock conditions are generally good.
NORTH DAKOTA: Over 60% of the state reports soil moisture that is more than 60% short, and about the same for subsoil moisture. This has kept pasture in dormancy, but forage supplies remain adequate. 3% of the durum wheat has been planted, which is about average. Planting activity has been slowed by dry soil in the western part of the state and snow cover in the eastern part of the state. Livestock conditions were reported as being satisfactory.
OHIO: About 2 days were available for field work, despite wet soils that have 64% surplus moisture. Some oat planting has occurred, but most of the state is too wet for fieldwork and tillage. Some of the wheat has been top-dressed, and alfalfa has been seeded. Only 7% of the oats have been planted, compared to a 21% five year average. 6% of the wheat is jointed, on track with last year. 71% of the pastures are fair to good and livestock are satisfactory.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Less than a full day was suitable for fieldwork last week, due to a major winter storm, which left heavy snows, complicating calving and lambing last week.. 71% of the topsoil has adequate moisture, and 19% is in a surplus condition. 72% of the winter wheat has broken dormancy, slightly behind the average. Spring seeded barley and wheat have yet to emerge. About 80% of the pasture is in fair to good condition.
WISCONSIN: Soils are wet in Wisconsin with 48% having surplus moisture and the rest has adequate moisture, but no fieldwork was underway last week due to continued snow, rain, and muddy conditions. A few oats are in the ground, but not enough to reach 1% for the state.
HAWAII: (Just for comparison purposes) There were 7 days available for fieldwork, soil moisture is adequate, and all crops are in perfect condition, but field work will be coming to a halt due to volcanic emissions and smoke that have necessitated evacuation.
Summary:
Cornbelt agriculture has a slow start this spring because of cold, wet soils, above normal rains, and some snow cover. Not enough corn has been planted to move the scale. In the northern Cornbelt spring seeded small grains have not emerged, while in the southern stretch, wheat has begun to joint. Apparently, the 2008 growing season will begin with a plentiful supply of topsoil and subsoil moisture.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:55 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 16, 2008
Inside Scoop: Crop Insurance Revealed
Is crop insurance a risk management tool, or a dependable source of revenue for your farm? That depends on where you live, and farmers in some states will be quite upset with this report and farmers in other states will be upset their secret is out in the open. Nevertheless, there are some distinctive inequities to be discussed.
Someone with an idea for a crop insurance program may likely consult with agricultural economist Bruce Babcock at Iowa State University. That is one of his specialties, and he knows the process inside and out. In the Spring edition of the Iowa Ag Review, Babcock reveals how the Cornbelt farmer is more of a contributor than beneficiary to the crop insurance program, in addition to the financial benefits received by crop insurers that administer the program for USDA’s Risk Management Agency.
In 2007:
1) Farmers paid in $6.5 billion in premiums.
2) $3.2 billion was paid out in losses to farmers.
3) $2.8 billion (Babcock’s estimate) will be paid to insurers by taxpayers.
Since 2000:
1) $11.3 billion in net payments to farmers (indemnities received minus farmer-paid premiums)
2) $22 billion paid by taxpayers to deliver $11 billion in net payments to farmers.
Babcock is critical of the inefficiency of the program and alleges that campaign contributions from insurance companies to Congress have maintained the status quo. He also says the benefits to farmers in certain geographical regions have been excessive and their Congressional representatives have kept the program from being overhauled. Babcock says the funding for the program comes from Cornbelt farmers who use crop insurance for risk management, and if that diminished, the program would falter.
Typically, insurance companies offer auto, health, life, and homeowners insurance that is “actuarially sound.” The premiums paid in must cover losses, plus return a profit to the company, but premiums must be competitive within the industry. In crop insurance, the USDA subsidizes the program, which means farmer premiums are not as high as they would be to be actuarially sound. But just focusing on the premiums paid by farmers, Babcock says farmers in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa have paid in more dollars in premiums than have been returned in indemnity payments.
His research indicates Minnesota and Nebraska farmers have received about $1.25 for each $1 paid in premiums. Dakota, Kansas, and Texas farmers receive $2.25 to $2.75 back for each $1 paid in premiums. Montana and Oklahoma farmers pay $1 in premiums and receive $3 in indemnity checks. Those are averages from 2000 to 2007 that Babcock has calculated. As a result of the computations, Babcock says, “Clearly, the recent experience in crop insurance suggests that Corn Belt farmers are paying too much in premiums, and Great Plains farmers are paying too little.”
In addition to his criticism about the administrative rules of the crop insurance program benefiting insurance companies, Babcock says the profits recorded indicate that Cornbelt farmers are paying premiums that are too high. He says the insurance rates are based on a rolling 25 year average of losses within each state, and excluding some regional droughts in 2002 and 2005, there has not been a serious drought since 1988. Therefore, he says the Cornbelt farmer should receive lower premiums. But in conjunction with that, production risks are falling because of technology advances, and crop insurance premiums have not responded. He does point to the Biotech Yield Endorsement available to farmers planting certain biotech seeds.
As a result of the apparent inequities, Babcock rhetorically asks:
1) Why should (Cornbelt farmers) be asked year after year to generate large underwriting gains so that the industry will be willing to offer insurance in other states?
2) Why should (Cornbelt farmers) keep generating excessive annual (crop insurance companies) agent commissions when they rarely receive payments that exceed their premiums?
Babcock assisted the National Corn Growers Association in the development of its farm policy proposal for the 2007 Farm Bill, which was based on a county-level revenue program, but it was not adopted by either the House or Senate because of opposition by the crop insurance industry and commodity groups in the Great Plains states.
Summary:
Cornbelt farmers have paid more into crop insurance than they have received in indemnity payments for losses, but just the opposite is true for Great Plains farmers who have received more than paid in. While this is not the typical practice of an insurance industry which follows actuarial tables, it has been maintained by politically strong crop insurance companies which have benefited from the way the Congress has kept the program designed.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:51 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 15, 2008
Soyeans: Raising Their Value To Producers And Consumers
What special traits are contained in your bags of seed beans? Glyphosate resistance, probably, but what about consumer-oriented traits that have the potential to raise their market value? Being Roundup Ready may help with production expense, but profitability is increased more with added market value. Whether you are growing a special traited bean this year or in the future, let’s explore what the options may be.
Most of the options deal with the chemistry of the soybean oil, as plant breeders have manipulated genes to make soybean oil more appealing to health conscious consumers. But there are also improvements in the chemistry of soybean meal for livestock producers wanting a better nutritional balance for livestock rations. At the 2008 University of Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference, Vice president Dennis Byron, of Pioneer Hi-Bred Crop Product Development Department, outlined some of the improvements that will provide additional profits.
Low Linolenic Soybeans
The typical 6% linolenic acid content in soybeans is what creates undesirable rancid odors, reduces shelf life, and requires hydrogenization to overcome those characteristics. By hydrogenizing soybean oil the problems are solved, but trans-fats are created and they have become lightening rods for criticism. The genetic manipulation to reduce the content of linolenic acid down to the 1-3% range has averted the need for hydrogenization and the creation of trans-fats. In 2007 about 1.5 million acres of soybeans were low linolenic, and that is expected to increase to 2 million in 2008. Premiums for producers are estimated at 60¢ per bushel.
Higher Oleic Soybeans
Oleic acid is a sister to linolenic, but it is a desirable component, therefore soybean breeders have increased the oleic content. It provides more flavor stability, and its quality will remain stable during extensive use in commercial food fryers, where high heat breaks down other cooking oils. Typically present varieties have about 20% oleic acid, but for 2009 some seed beans will be released by Iowa State that will have 50% oleic acid content. Additionally, their linolenic acid content will be about 1%. Byron said Pioneer is manipulating the genetics so the oleic acid content can reach 80%, as is Monsanto, with some seed available in 2009. Premiums have not been established.
Low Saturated Fat Soybeans
Although soybeans have only 7% saturated fat, that is twice the level of canola oil, and causes soybean oil to lose market share with the new food labeling laws that require identification of saturated fat content. Iowa State and Pioneer produced a low saturated fat soybean about 12 years ago and was distributed to schools to create healthier meals for children. The demand was limited and the seed is no longer in production. However, about 2010, soybean varieties will be available that will have the optimum combination of fatty acid content.
Omega-3 soybeans
The current popularity of foods with Omega-3 fatty acids result from its ability to fight inflammation and provide cardio-protective benefits. Other than fish oil, soybeans are one of the few sources of Omega-3. Monsanto is developing soybean varieties with increased Omega-3 content, and seed is expected to be available about 2012.
Soybean Meal
In addition to the protein content, soybean meal is about 25% carbohydrate that is not digestible by most livestock and poultry. Researchers are developing varieties with a digestible carbohydrate that will result in more usable energy for livestock. Other meal researchers are addressing the problem of phosphorus that is not digestible and creates problems in spreading livestock waste. The effort is directed at making the phosphorous in the meal digestible. The soybeans with these improvements are expected to be available about 2010.
Additionally, efforts are underway to improve the amino acid structure, to raise the sulfur content in methionine and cysteine and make the product more nutritional for livestock and poultry. The research is expected to produce seed beans for 2012.
Summary:
Consumer demand for soybean oil that will provide a wide variety of desirable traits is pushing soybean breeders to provide seed that will be available in the next 3 to 5 years. Those traits will be in demand by certain markets that will be willing to pay a premium for the identity preserved soybeans. Those include shifts in the blend of fatty acids in soybean oil that will make it healthier, more stable, and will contain fewer objectionable qualities. Additionally, researchers are manipulating the genetics of soybeans to adjust the components of soybean meal to make it more digestible for livestock and produce less phosphorus that can create environmental problems.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:06 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 14, 2008
Your Marketing Seat Belt Protects You During The "Tractor Seat Bounce."
Did you tell USDA a month ago that you were going to plant more soybeans because beans provided a price advantage over corn? If so, look again, because corn now has an advantage over beans. Some of your neighbors have decided to make the shift since the Prospective Plantings Report two weeks ago, hoping to cash in on the rising corn market and fading bean market. Before our total focus turns to planting, let’s make sure our marketing plan is current.
With the help of Extension Marketing Specialist Chris Hurt at Purdue, we’ll review his April 12 corn newsletter.
The market will be watching the same thing Cornbelt farmers are watching and that is the weather. Ethanol plants are also watching the margin between production costs and corn prices, and Hurt says there is a 30¢ cushion for refiner profitability. Futures prices may push toward $6.40, but cash price increases will need acreage shifts away from corn because of weather delays.
Old crop corn has been costing you storage and interest and may be wearing out its welcome in the next few weeks. Hurt suggests a marketing plan that allows you to keep some old crop for sale in the typical volatile market around pollination time. For the rest of it, determine if a June delivery premium will cover storage costs, plus interest of 8¢ per bushel. If it won’t cover commercial storage, move your elevator-stored corn first.
New crop corn may give you the opportunity to sell at a record price of $6.50. Hurt is recommending about one-third of your new crop being priced by mid-May. Your elevator may be one of many not offering a cash contract. If so, you can probably get a basis contract, then use a commodity broker for a hedge. If 2008 corn acreage is relatively small, then ending stocks will decline and the basis will strengthen. If 2008 corn acreage is relatively large, then Hurt believes harvest cash prices may be in the high $4 to low $5 range.
Advanced marketers may want to consider using the options market to set a floor and a ceiling above the market. Buying a $5.70 put option establishes a floor price if the market falls. Selling a $7 call option establishes a ceiling well above the expected market, but the income from the call reduces the total cost to 10¢ per bushel. Keep in mid there will be commission charges and a margin fee for the call option, and before using this plan, ensure you know all of the financial risk.
In his April 12 soybean newsletter, Chris Hurt suggests:
The market has fallen substantially since July futures peaked at $15.96 on March 3 and boosted many farmers plans for increased soybean acreage. The great expense of meeting margin calls caused many speculators to liquidate their long positions and prices fell. Also with higher ending stocks estimated by USDA and good production in South America, the domestic and global supply of soybeans is higher than earlier thought.
With the old crop in mind, the forecast 18% increase in soybean acreage will provide a greater supply than expected, so prices will average closer to the $10.50 mark. With a wet forecast that will shift some corn acres to beans, the bean market is facing several bearish factors. However, the low value of the dollar and high oil prices are offsetting a decline in soybean prices. Hurt believes soybean prices might fluctuate over the next couple of months between $12 and $14.50. He also expects the soybean basis to improve because old crop beans are in tight supply and many farmers would rather plant than deliver beans in the next two months. As a result, Hurt recommends being 80% sold for old crop beans by the end of May.
If new crop planted acreage fades as expected and ending stocks increase, normal yields for the 2008 soybean crop would be met with a harvest cash price in the range of $9 to $10. Hurt thinks November beans may trade from $11 to $13 over the next couple months and provide a marketing opportunity if cash prices reach into the $10 to $12 range. However, the basis is 80¢ to $1.20 because elevator operators are being subjected to a wide basis as well because of expected volatility. A normal crop would reduce that volatility and the basis could tighten by as much as 40¢.
Advanced marketers may want to consider a hedge to arrive contract, if offered by an elevator that would allow the futures price to be set and then await the basis to tighten. Or a futures hedge could be established with a commodity broker on 30% to 40% of expected production by the end of May. An option strategy by buying a $12.40 put option and selling a $14 call option would establish a floor and ceiling for just 34¢ per bushel. However, a marketer should be familiar with the risk of selling an option.
Summary:
The planting season usually means a “tractor seat bounce” in the market which would provide pricing opportunities for both corn and soybeans to take advantage of the market. Corn needs to find more acres and if that can be done with higher prices, then the new crop price will fade into harvest. The soybean market is trying to find its level in the midst of more acreage and higher supplies. However, with many elevators backing away from cash contracts, many farmers will have to utilize a futures hedging strategy with a commodity broker and then write a basis contract at the elevator when the basis tightens later this year. Additionally, options strategies can be used, which will lock in profits at a reasonable cost.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:38 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 11, 2008
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
USDA’s Supply Demand Report this week cut corn carryover by 155 mil. bu. from strong feed and export demand, balanced with a 100 mil. bu. decline in ethanol demand. High corn prices have slowed the rate at which new ethanol plants are coming on line.
Conversely, the soybean carryout was raised by 20 mil. bu., but remains at 5% of use. USDA’s soybean demand estimates were all raised for domestic crush and exports, but residual was lowered and that resulted in added carryout. US bean exports remain high because of the Argentine farmer strike and the Brazilian dock workers strike. USDA is estimating that the marketing year average farm price for soybeans will be $10 to $10.50.
Ending stocks for wheat remained at the 62 year low in USDA’s Supply Demand Report. Human consumption was raised, while livestock use was lowered, the latter a result of high wheat prices. USDA says the year’s average price will be $6.55 to $6.75. However, shortages of good milling wheat here and abroad are supporting wheat prices.
So what do you draw from the numbers? Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton suggests:
1) Global demand is strong and the weak dollar continues to boost U.S. exports
2) U.S. and global supplies of the major grains and oilseed crops are tight,
3) Acreage planted, growing conditions, and yields are critical this year, without stocks.
Will pork producers qualify for disaster aid under plans being debated this week by Farm Bill Conferees on Capitol Hill? Purdue economist Chris Hurt rhetorically asks that question in connection with his expectation for $3.5 bil. in industry losses in 2008. Hurt says producers can shoulder the blame for not curtailing production despite warnings.
Hog prices averaged less than $40 for the first quarter of 2008 says Extension’s Hurt, and while he expects some improvement in coming months, he says they will be poor throughout the year: 2nd quarter--$47, 3rd quarter--$48, and 4th quarter--$45. He says a more aggressive sow liquidation is needed—6 to 8%--and the sooner the better.
Pork profitability has been hurt by low market prices, but also high feed costs, and Hurt says prospects for 2008 losses are now near $30 per head. But he says there will be no financial bail out for the pork industry, which must take responsibility for the losses. Read his newsletter.
Farrow to finish producers are losing $24 per head say Iowa State livestock economists who calculate annualized returns. They also used lower corn costs that were based on 2007 production costs. They say, “Hog producers that raised their own corn and have no debt payment on facilities have not covered their short run costs for over five months.”
10% of hogs are sold on a futures market formula and their prices fared better than hogs sold on the spot market, meat market, or long market formulas. That is the analysis of MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes, who calculated monthly price advantages back to September and said the differences ranged from $11.52 in Sept. to $29.00 in Nov.
Yield damaging weather is still in the summer forecast of Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. He believes a winter La Nina has peaked, but summer weather patterns are unclear. He’s expecting a weak to moderate La Nina will dominate summer weather, a Burmuda high, and a drier summer than last year for the Western Corn Belt.
Implement size and fuel consumption can put you in a quandary. NE Extension’s Tom Dorn says, “The fuel use per acre for field operations is independent of implement width. For example, consider two disks, one with a 20-foot width and the other with a 30-foot width. It would take 50% more power to pull the 30-foot disk (assuming the same travel speed, depth, etc.), but since the disk would be tilling 50% more acres per hour, the fuel use per acre would be the same for either scenario.” More.
If your winter wheat seems disappointing, the winter snow and ice took a toll on it and it has been slow to green up. If you are considering replacing it with spring wheat, remember that it is getting late to plant spring wheat and the balance of the growing season needs to be relatively cool with sufficient moisture. IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if the purpose is for straw production, there should be plenty of time. Read his wheat newsletter.
Wheat leaves may look bad, but agronomist Herb Ohm at Purdue says the crown may be doing fine. He says, “Generally, if there are at least 15 plants per square foot, it is worth keeping – there will be a yield loss, but with current prices it should be worth keeping, although one should plan on applying a herbicide.”
Topdressing wheat with nitrogen can still be done say Purdue agronomists, but they say it should occur prior to jointing. But the longer the wait, the more damage that is done to plants as the spreader works through the field. Late applications result in less yield response and more increase in grain protein. They suggest that if the wheat is already jointed, reduce the application rate down by 10-15%. For tips on late N applications, read here.
Soybean seed quality continues to concern Extension specialists, who say seed coats are thin because of conditions late last year, and nearly all seed companies are impacted.
1) Treat all soybean seed with fungicides for protection from root rot to increase stands.
2) Plant the highest quality seed in the most adverse environment.
3) Be gentle with the seed, because 80% germination means that is the maximum.
4) Producers who plant more seed than supposedly needed will end up with a good stand.
5) Slow down the planter to ensure each seed is 1-1.5 inches deep and uniformly spaced.
It is too early in the year to take the attitude that Asian rust will be a non-issue says IL crop specialist Robert Bellm. For the past 3 years, it has not had the proper environment in the Midwest to survive, but he says each year is different and the past should not determine the future. Bellm says the management tools are in place to protect soybeans and reduce yield loss, but he says diligent scouting of soybean fields is needed first.
Will low rates of Poncho and Cruiser be able to control black cutworm larvae? Kevin Steffey of IL Extension says the .25 mg of active ingredient per seed may not control the older larvae, and he stresses the need for early season scouting for black cutworms. He says rescue treatments are usually very effective, if the infestation is found early enough.
If you get bored waiting to plant, try something different and put out some bait stations for wireworms. Scoop out 2-3 inches of soil 6-9 inches across and fill with untreated corn or wheat. Cover it with black plastic, weight it down with soil, and flag it. If you have only one wireworm per bait station in a field, you may have economic infestation.
You may not have focused much on wireworms in the past, warns IL Extension’s Mike Gray, who says his university colleagues are paying more attention to them. One researcher found that an apparently dead wireworm recovered 100 days after insecticide treatment. Gray says that means densities of them could build significantly in a season.
If you have wet soil, you probably have weeds. And if you have weeds, you may soon have moths that will be laying eggs for black cutworms. It seems the longer that corn planting is delayed, the greater the chance for damage from cutworms. Young ones feed on leaf tissue, but the 4th instars begin cutting off corn plants and hauling them away.
Should you add 2,4-D to your pre-plant burndown for no-till fields? That is a smart idea to Jeff Stachler of OH Extension. He says with all of the dandelions and weeds that might be glyphosate resistant, the addition of 2,4-D is important in achieving effective control. He adds, “At this point in the season, it is more important to include 2,4-D in preplant herbicide applications and to delay planting of corn and soybean rather than planting the crops and controlling weeds after planting.” Read more.
The wet spring has probably not caused the loss of much, if any, nitrogen according to IL Extension’s Fabian Fernandez. That is because it requires various bacteria to convert nitrogen and the cold wet soil has not be conducive to bacterial action. If any is missing it may have been lost last fall when the soil stayed warm and dry longer than normal. But Fernandez says the only N lost this spring would have washed out of fields in heavy rain.
Glyphosate prices have confounded soybean producers, but opened the opportunity to look at alternative weed control programs costing the same as a 2-pass glyphosate program which use both a pre-emerge and post glyphosate applications to improve weed control. Read more.
Roundup Ready alfalfa will not be on the market this spring. The re-registration process in lengthy and USDA’s paperwork is expected to be completed in 18-24 months. That means the product cannot be legally marketed until mid-late 2009 at the earliest.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:26 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 10, 2008
These Five Points At Planting Mean High-Fives At Harvest.
It is late May. After a wet spring you have finally mudded in more than 1,500 acres of corn; some for yourself, some under a cropshare lease, and some for a custom farming client. As you clean up the planter to put it away, you notice a problem with one of the major settings. This is not a minor “Oooops!” This is a major “Oh _ _ _ _!”
Peter Thomison of Ohio State reminds us that mistakes during planting season are usually irreversible and the impact is probably a diminished yield potential. In the latest Crop Observation and Recommendation Network newsletter the OSU agronomist makes a number of checklist suggestions to ensure you avoid mistakes in getting your corn crop off to a good start.
1) Tillage. Thomison’s suggestion is to limit tillage to only the necessities and only when the soil conditions will cooperate. Secondary tillage should be limited to only preparation of an adequate seedbed, since it can create yield-reducing compaction. Fracturing compacted layers is sometimes necessary, but limit that activity to the fall.
2) Timetable. Know the optimum planting window for your region (probably sometime from mid April to mid May) and shoot for that target. Early planting in wet soil cut yields, just as late planting will. Thomison says, “If growers have the equipment capability to plant more than half of their corn acres prior to the optimum planting date, then this should allow planting all the corn acres prior to the calendar date when corn yields begin to decline quickly.” Typically the two to three weeks in the optimal planting period will contain one day out of three that fieldwork can reasonably progress. And Thomison says the calendar date is more reliable than soil temperature for planting decisions.
3) Seed depth. Corn seedlings like frost about as much as your spouse’s tomato plants. But you can’t cover up your corn with sheets and blankets. At this time of year when the soil is moist and the evaporative rate is low, planting depth should be no more than 1.5 inches. Later on, when the soil is more dry, push the seed down to the moisture, but no more than 2 inches deep. Care should be taken to ensure the seed is not so shallow that nodal roots will not properly form and that the seedling does not suffer from a soil-applied herbicide. The impact of irregular planting depths will be obvious when corn is sold next fall.
4) Seeding rate. What will your population be this year? 28,000? 35,000? 42,000? Higher rates should be reserved for fields with high yield potential, as determined by fertility and water holding capacity. Cutting the seeding rate to save on seed cost typically reduces revenue more than cost is saved. If planting into cold soil, some seeds will not properly germinate, so boost the seeding rate above the desired population.
5) Calculate your expected population. Thomison says unless you have a good stand of volunteer corn, your population will probably be less than your seeding rate. That is the target germination rate for seed corn, and the final population is determined by planting date, tillage practices, pest problems, chemical injury, planter performance, and seed quality. With those reducing the final population up to 15%, consider a seeding rate 10-15% above the desired population.
Summary:
Mistakes at planting time will be reflected in lower yields at harvest, so develop a checklist to ensure you have made every effort to achieve maximum yields. That includes soil conditions, planting date, planting depth, seeding rate calculations and seeding rate flexibility per field. Your seed corn needs a good start in life, and the care that is given in the next few weeks will pay off on the settlement sheet.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:28 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 9, 2008
How Will You Protect Your Soybean Crop, And Is That The Best Plan?
In 2008 you will have bugs in your beans. At this time it is too early to tell which ones, and it is too early to determine whether they will create damage that surpasses an economic threshold for a rescue treatment. But you will have bugs in your beans, so do you think now about how to respond or do you wait until your yield begins to fade?
In the 40 years prior to 2000, insect outbreaks that threatened soybeans were few an far between. Certainly memorable is the drought year of 1988 that brought two spotted spider mites to your attention. But for the most part there were few problems, and even then they were quite isolated. And during the latter years of that era, most producers learned that a spray should be something in response to a problem, not something that was applied to prevent a problem.
Since then, soybean entomology has become a dynamic discipline. You have heard about insects transmitting diseases, a new soybean aphid was discovered, and new insecticides have been developed that have changed your perspectives. University of Illinois entomologist Kevin Steffey says those may have focused your attention, but they have not necessarily lead to higher soybean yields. However, commercial product suppliers have caused producers to think that spending money on preventative products will result in improved yields. As you might expect, Steffey is not big on that philosophy. He warns against unintended consequences of pest resistance resulting from overuse of crop protectants, when you opt for the short term cost/benefit ratio that might be easily calculated.
While it may only take 1-2 bushels per acre of higher yield to pay for a pesticide or fungicide, Steffey says the entire cost of soybean production is increasing for 2008 and will cost you in the vicinity of $220 per acre, not counting land costs. That might put beans above $8 to breakeven, so spending more money on production costs will put them even higher.
But he’s concerned about the development of resistance, such as:
1) Putting a neonicotinoid treatment on soybean seeds may control an insect, but continued use will result in resistance development.
2) Controlling weeds with glyphosate is convenient, but it has an undesirable fungicidal impact on some insects.
3) Insecticide sprays may be used to control threats from insects, but repeated use creates resistance problems.
4) Use of fungicides to control a soybean disease is reasonable, but it may also kill a pathogen that had been suppressing the populations of other insects.
Insect management guidelines are a work in progress, particularly with increasing soybean yields and higher soybean values that have changed the dynamics of determining when a treatment should be used based on leaf defoliation. That has changed from amount of loss to the amount of leaf that remains to intercept light. But there are no decision aids yet to make that estimation.
In the near future, soybean resistance to insects will play a significant role in maximizing yield. This is particularly true for beans resistant to soybean aphids. Steffey says several varieties have been developed and should soon be commercialized. Another variety will have a Bt gene that makes soybeans resistant to Lepidoptera insects, but Steffey says that has not been a treat to Midwestern soybeans.
Generally, recent pests have been bean leaf beetles, Japanese beetles, soybean aphids, and spider mites, but there may be a shift occurring that some of those will recede in importance and new insects, such as the whitefly will come to prominence. So far, the species that have been seen have not caused economic damage. But Steffey says other species found in the South may cause damage in the Midwest as they have in southern states. And he says the recurrence of old pests or emergence of new pests may happen if good management principles are disregarded.
Summary:
Soybean producers should carefully consider the use of any crop protectant in an effort to reduce the potential for development of insect resistance. Preventative sprays are the first to reconsider, particularly since soybean production costs are already high. The use of leaf defoliation as an threshold for spray is changing along with higher yields and higher values, and new decision aids have not yet been developed and tested. New pests may appear at anytime, and old pests may recur, particularly if they become resistant to the overuse of chemical protectants.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:39 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 8, 2008
How Much SCN Tax Will You Be Paying This Year?
You are planting more soybeans this year for revenue purposes, but just like sharing some of that revenue with the IRS, you’ll be paying a share of your income to the SCN tax. The SCN tax is widely collected from Cornbelt farmers, and only 26% of Iowa Farmers and 18% of Illinois farmers are exempt from the SCN tax. And for those who have to pay it, the tax rate can be as high as 40% without any indication that you have ever paid the tax.
Of course, the loss of revenue from soybeans is not from an SCN tax, but from Soybean Cyst Nematodes which do deduct revenue, without providing any type of tax deduction. Your job as a producer is to maximize your soybean productivity by managing SCN says Iowa State plant pathologist Greg Tylka in his presentation at the 2008 University of Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference, “For all practical purposes, SCN can never be eliminated from a field once it is present. However, there are things that can be done to manage the nematode in order to maximize soybean yields and minimize reproduction of the nematode.”
Tylka says you have 3 ways to keep money in your pocket, instead of letting SCN rob your bank account.
1) SCN resistant soybean varieties are one alternative, but even they will suffer a 10% yield loss. (That is still better than 30% losses.) And one of the benefits may be in their suppression of SCN reproduction. Tylka offered several test plot examples in which resistant varieties outyielded susceptible varieties by 15 bushels or more; however the number of SCN eggs in soil samples were ten to twelve times greater in the susceptible varieties.
2) A second alternative in SCN management is the use of varieties that have genetics from PI88788, which is the granddaddy for resistant soybean varieties. But, sadly, an increasing number of SCN populations tested around the Cornbelt have shown the ability to reproduce on the PI88788 legacy varieties. For example, 34% of Illinois SCN populations had greater than 10% reproduction. 60% of Missouri populations had greater than 10% reproduction. And a similar story comes from Iowa, but Tylka says, “Most of the resistant varieties usually yielded greater than the susceptible varieties at these locations.”
3) Thirdly, Tylka says SCN management includes the consideration of non-host crops, including corn, small grains, and some other legumes. Their use can cut SCN population as much as 50% in the first year after soybeans. However, the rate of population decline diminishes in successive years.
Summary:
Soybean cyst nematode can have a debilitating impact on soybean yield where producers have not been concerned about obtaining SCN soil tests and taking measures to plant either resistant varieties or non-host crops. While nearly every soybean variety, resistant or not, will allow some degree of SCN reproduction, the resistant varieties will suppress SCN reproduction as much as ten fold. Producers who use good SCN management will rotate resistant varieties with non-host crops.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:20 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink
April 7, 2008
Before Heading To The Field, Take A Swing With A Baseball Bat.
You are chomping at the bit and pawing the ground like an impatient stallion. Normally a good part of your corn is in and up, and here you are biding your time, waiting for windy, warm sunshine to dry out your fields. Everything is greased, fueled, and checked out, except your poly water tank on the truck. Poly water tank? Why does that need to be checked? It just sits there! Oh, but there is a lot to learn about poly water tanks.
Pop it in the truck or on a trailer, tie it down and you have instant water in the field for pesticide and fertilizer applications. Handy thing. Should last forever. But it won’t and you need to have it on your spring checklist along with your son’s baseball bat. And we’ll use that in a little bit.
Fred Whitford coordinates the pesticide programs at Purdue and knows how poly tanks can crack like an egg. His presentation at the University of Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference taught many producers how to select a poly tank, how to ensure it will not rupture, and how to test tanks to make sure they are up for another season. After all, you don’t want to see 500 gallons of chemical gushing out where there is no shut-off valve. The clean up cost may be even greater than the loss of the liquid!
The poly tank may hold a specific number of gallons, but it also has a specific gravity rating and that means it is also limited in how much weight it can contain. A tank that is only rated for water has a 1.0 specific gravity rating, meaning it cannot hold a liquid that weighs any more than the 8.334 pounds that water weighs. Your tank probably has a number that is somewhere between 1.0 and 1.9. If it is 1.5, that means it can safely hold a liquid that is one and a half times the weight of water, or about 12.5 pounds per gallon. As an example, if you haul a liquid fertilizer, it may weigh 10 to 12 pounds per gallon, so your poly tank should have at least a 1.5 specific gravity rating. In other words, know the rating on your tank and know the weight of the liquid that it contains.
Tanks come in a variety of shapes and sizes, and if the tank is used outside of its warranty, then any failure will not be covered. Tanks are designed to flex in places, both inward and outward, but if the weight of the liquid is too much for the flex point, the tank will rupture. When buying a poly tank, compare tanks of the same specific gravity and same style and dimension. Cheaper does not always mean the best deal.
It is impossible to say how long a tank will last, not when it should be taken out of service. Whitford says the only certainty is that at some point the tank will fail. Longevity is determined by the specific gravity of the contained liquids, frequency of filing, exposure to sunlight, amount of transportation, and the reactivity of the liquid. There is a good chance you’ll be filling your tank soon, and this is a good time for an inspection of its soundness.
1) Using a water soluble black marker, rub the marker over a 6 inch square section anyplace where it is exposed to sunlight, then rub off the ink with a paper towel, and any ink that is left has penetrated into the surface where there are cracks. Such cracks indicate radiation damage and the more cracks indicate the potential for failure.
2) Hit the tank with a baseball bat where the cracking has occurred. A healthy tank will let the bat bounce off. A sick tank may split open at that point of impact. But it is better for you to create the hole in an empty tank than for the tank to crack open under internal pressure in the field.
Summary:
Poly tanks can be a handy tool during the farming season, but have to be maintained. The tank should not be stressed by filling it with liquid with a specific gravity beyond the tanks rating. It should be recognized that sunlight can deteriorate a tank over time, creating stress cracks that might allow the tank to rupture at an inopportune moment. Poly tanks should be regularly inspected for the cracks, and replaced if cracks are found that might allow a failure of the tank’s integrity.
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:45 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 4, 2008
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
The producer surveys the USDA used to develop its Prospective Plantings Report, were conducted about two weeks ago says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State. “At that time, the relative prices of corn and soybeans favored soybeans, especially when the input costs of planting the two crops were compared. Since then, the price relationship has shifted to favor corn and rumors have been circulating about the availability and germination viability of soybean seed. Some producers are rethinking their planting plans. If the survey were to be administered now, the results might show producer intentions to plant more than 86 million acres of corn and less than 74.8 million acres of soybeans.”
Since the Prospective Plantings Report the market is refining its message to farmers to plant more beans than corn. But marketing specialist Steve Johnson at Iowa State says over the past 4 years, the March acreage number for corn was less than the final planted acreage estimate each year. For soybeans since 2004, the March acreage number was greater than the final soybean planted acreage estimate. Thus, farmers respond to the March Report by planting more corn acres and fewer soybean acres. Read more.
Corn is more profitable than soybeans, say IL farm economists, who looked at 2000 to 2007 and projected profits for 2008. Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz report the historical differences have widened to $98 and $90 the past 2 years, compared to the $27 difference for 2000 to 2005. They project corn being $289 more profitable than beans in 2008. Read more.
Wheat prices will be lower by harvest believes Woolverton at Kansas State, and he’s advising to forward contract wheat that is covered by crop insurance. He does not believe that it will drop as low as the USDA forecast of $6 and has concerns about crop quality. But he says with high input costs, good wheat prices should be locked in.
Fuel costs can be reduced by farming smart, says IL Extension’s Bob Frazee:
1) 1 trip over the field should be sufficient to level the soil and prepare the seedbed.
2) Reduce the depth of your tillage, or change to a no-till planting system.
3) Combine field trips by blending 28% UAN with pre-plant or pre-emerge herbicides.
4) Consider custom applied fertilizer or herbicides if the application cost is less than fuel.
5) Use post emerge herbicides for annual grass and broadleaf weed control.
6) Avoid unnecessary use of the cultivator, if weeds can be controlled with herbicides
7) Match field equipment to the appropriate size tractor to avoid excess horsepower.
8) Properly maintain tractors and reconsider all trips to town in the pickup truck.
While deciding on your target population, IL Extension specialist Emerson Nafziger suggests, “It might be good to raise seed drop rates slightly when planting early to compensate for lower expected emergence, but if soil conditions are good, this may not be necessary. It is normal to drop 5% to 10% more seed than the desired final stand, with the lower end of this range appropriate if seed quality and soil conditions are good.”
So how do you decide planting rates? Production specialist Emerson Nafziger says, (With) “modern hybrids: yields tend to level off, not drop off, at populations above the point of maximum yield. From a risk management standpoint, this means that it tends to be prudent to plant higher populations to take advantage of good conditions, since the only loss under average or poor conditions is the additional seed cost.”
Balancing population with seed cost, Nafziger advises, “When corn is bringing $5 a bushel, the economically optimum population drops by about 1,200 plants per acre when the seed cost doubles from $120 to $240 per unit. In practice, such changes should be moderated somewhat by the point that the economic risk of having populations too low for good conditions tend to be greater than the risk of having them too high, even when seed is expensive.” Read more.
When soils dry out, plant corn as early as possible says IL Extension’s Bob Frazee.
1) Yield potential increases when vegetative development occurs in cool, moist weather.
2) Early planting puts pollination ahead of heat and drought stress.
3) Early planting allows deeper root growth ahead of potentially dry periods.
4) Kernels fill better during periods of the greatest solar energy.
5) Early planted corn is usually shorter, with lower ear height, and less lodging.
6) Early maturity will mean less drying cost.
If you’re hesitant to plant corn, “University agronomists feel that with typical spring weather, preparation for corn planting can begin sometime in the first half of April. Delays due to soil temperature below 50 degrees F. should be considered only if the weather outlook is for continued cold air temperatures. After April 20, soil temperature should be ignored, and corn should be planted as soon as soil conditions allow,” advises Bob Frazee, who also says plant very full season hybrids first when planting in April.
If you purchase Optimum AcreMax1 Insect Protection seed corn from Pioneer, IL bug guru Kevin Steffey reminds you that EPA approval is still pending, and that product is not yet a legal replacement for the refuge requirement for Bt corn borer and Bt corn root worm technology. Steffey says it still has to pass EPA testing and review from experts.
If you had not noticed, soybean seed coats are more thin than usual, making them more susceptible to mechanical damage, both during conditioning and during planting. Carl Bradley of IL Extension says the result is lower germination, and he also says fungicides will not solve that problem, but could prevent disease if seed sits in cool wet soil for long.
Two on-farm fungicide treatments are available if you have concerns about soybeans sitting in cold soil. Ohio State specialists say Enhance is a hopper box treatment containing Vitavax and Captan, which will protect seed against Fusarium, Pythium and some Rihzoctonia but not Phytophthora. For those growers with heavy pressure from Phytophthora additional Apron XL will help. They caution to be gentle to the seed.
Early spring bugs #1. Soil insects are waiting for the soil to dry out and warm up, along with every corn grower, but a lot of the seed purchased has already been treated with Cruiser or Poncho. It is too early to predict the infestation of grubs, wireworms, grape colaspis, and black cutworms, but even heavy infestations can overcome seed treatments.
Early spring bugs #2. Aphids will be the first out of the gate on wheat fields, but there is usually little damage unless populations reach Biblical proportions. The threshold for treatment is 50 per head during grain fill. The other potential problem is armyworms, which will arrive in moth form, but none have been reported or documented this early.
Early spring bugs #3. Alfalfa is currently susceptible to alfalfa weevil, and while it has not been a widespread problem, it is always wise to scout for them. They will soon start to hatch, and the population will indicate their success in surviving the harsh winter.
You’ll be in a pickle, if you allow an invasion by the burcucumber. Extension specialist Dawn Refsell warns of its relatively late emergence, escaping most herbicide programs. It can cut soybean yields nearly in half and its vines in cornfields can interfere with harvest. Its range is being extended from creeks into fields and Refsell says prevention is easier than management. Learn how.
As the cost of glyphosate doubled, the cost of pre-emergent herbicides became more cost competitive says MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley. He says that shifts producers to controlling weeds before they become competitive with soybeans. Bradley says most glyphosate is not applied until weeds are 7-10 inches and yield loss has already begun.
April 22 is the date for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to explore grain market issues of concern. Steve Johnson at Iowa State says questions will be asked about the lack of convergence between the futures and cash prices, higher margin requirements and the impact on market participants, and the role of speculators and commodity index traders. He says index funds currently have upwards of $225 billion invested in commodity markets.
What is the cost of feeding distillers’ dried grains to swine? That is a good question says IL swine specialist Hans Stein, who says the answer differs for every producer. But to help each pork producer find the answer, Stein has developed a spreadsheet that calculates the value of including DDGS in swine rations. Use the spreadsheet.
Finally, some good news. Ohio state specialists who have been looking for evidence of soybean aphids say “We are predicting few if any soybean aphid problems this coming summer. Although there are really no preventive treatments available for aphid anyway, we still think growers can benefit by NOT having to plan on worrying about the aphid.”
Posted by Stu Ellis at 12:19 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
April 3, 2008
Managing Waterhemp With A Devious Nature
As you think ahead a few weeks, and make your herbicide plans, you remember that nagging patch of waterhemp that just won’t go away. You have tried to control it (kill it) with a seemingly toxic shower of glyphosate, but the waterhemp just keeps growing. At some point you have to realize there is a need to manage it (live with it as best you can.) So how do you manage waterhemp that is resistant to glyphosate? (Glad you asked!)
The number of acres of corn and soybeans treated with glyphosate increases annually. And that trend is paralleled with the trend of weeds that are resistant to glyphosate, both in number of species, and in number of patches within that specie. That is not rocket science. And neither is the assembly of a plan to manage waterhemp that is glyphosate resistant. It is offered by weed specialist Aaron Hager at the University of Illinois.
Hager’s plan is based on the need to control waterhemp in Roundup Ready soybeans. He says if you know what types of herbicides your pesky waterhemp will resist, then post-emergent herbicide selection and utilization can be made before planting. Hager knows your waterhemp may be resistant to an ALS-inhibiting herbicide. In addition to your glyphosate resistant waterhemp, there is also waterhemp that is resistant to PPO inhibiting herbicides. He anticipates the near-term discovery of waterhemp that is resistant to both glyphosate and PPO inhibitors, which he says is a “worst case scenario.” That means there are no post emergent herbicides that will kill waterhemp. But there is something that could be done to help your problem and that is any practice that will hasten crop development and early canopy development. Hager’s recommendations are:
1) Apply a full rate (according to label guidelines for soil type and organic matter content) of a soil-residual herbicide no sooner than 7 days before planting or no later than 3 days after planting. This may work to curtail germination of waterhemp seeds, and a full rate will last longer to catch some of the late germinating waterhemp seeds. Any time you can delay waterhemp growth and maturity means the less competition for your soybeans. To minimize potential injury to soybeans, make your application no later than 3 days after planting.
2) The initial postemergence application of glyphosate (alone at 0.75 to 1.0 pound acid equivalent per acre) must be made when waterhemp is 3 to 5 inches tall. Since there is limited data on waterhemp control with a glyphosate and PPO tankmix, and few answers regarding additives, the recommendation is for a singular application. Resistant waterhemp will not be controlled at more than 50% efficiency with the labeled in-crop application rate or maximum labeled rate. However, if resistant waterhemp are under 5 inches, they are sensitive to the 0.75 pound a.e. rate. Closely monitor waterhemp that survive that application rate at that size.
3) Fields must be scouted 7 days after the initial glyphosate application to determine treatment effectiveness. Resistant waterhemp will continue to grow following treatment, but susceptible waterhemp will have wilted in that time period. However, at the end of the growing season it is impossible to tell the difference between waterhemp that germinated after the glyphosate was applied and the waterhemp that resisted the glyphosate.
4) If waterhemp control is inadequate and retreatment is necessary, consider applying a PPO-inhibiting herbicide (lactofen, fomesafen, or acifluorfen) at a full labeled rate (with recommended additives) as soon as possible. PPO inhibiting herbicides are the only recourse for glyphosate resistant waterhemp. By this time, the waterhemp may be 8 to 12 inches tall.
5) Rescout the treated field within 10 to 14 days to determine effectiveness of the PPO-inhibiting herbicide treatment. If scouting reveals that plants treated with a second herbicide application might survive, implement whatever tactics are available or feasible to rogue these surviving plants from the field before they reach a reproductive growth stage. The PPO resistance gene in waterhemp is transmitted by pollen, so it is important to physically eliminate plants before flowering. That same mode of transmittal is not known regarding glyphosate resistance. Since female waterhemp plants can produce in excess of one million seeds, running them through a combine is counterproductive, needless to say.
Summary:
The widespread use of glyphosate has allowed an increase in the number of waterhemp plants that are resistant, and because their ability to multiply is of Biblical proportion, it is important to manag