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December 14, 2007
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
Corn prices remain strong with the help of Congressional plans to again raise the target for renewable fuels and ethanol says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good. A 15 bil. gal. cap would need 5.5 bil. bu. of corn, up from the current 3.2 bil. bu rate of consumption. Read more.
Bean prices remain strong with the help of robust export demand says Darrel Good. Export inspections are even with 2006, but unshipped sales are well ahead. Outstanding sales to China are at 207 mil. bu., compared to 100 mil. last year. Traders are concerned also about dryness in So. America, and a La Nina reducing the 2008 US bean crop.
Wheat prices remain strong with the help of dry soil in US production areas, a frost in Argentina, and a smaller crop for Canada. India is buying more wheat because of production problems. US wheat exports are at 730 mil. bu., up 66% from 2006 and unshipped sales are 114% larger than year ago levels. We are at 90% of USDA’s target.
Darrel Good says despite current lofty price levels there is little to suggest that prices will move significantly lower in the near term. “More acreage of all three crops may be needed in the US in 2008, and the prices of other crops are moving higher as well. A favorable growing season is needed to prevent another round of sharply higher prices.”
USDA’s latest Supply/Demand report tightened carryover stocks because of strong demand. Corn exports were raised to 2.45 bil. bu. and carryout dropped by 1.797 bil. Bean exports were raised 20 mil. bu., and the carryout was cut to 185 mil. bu. Wheat exports were raised 25 mil. bu. and the wheat carryout was dropped to 280 mil. bu.
Along with the tighter supplies, USDA raised the estimated price ranges for crops for the current marketing year. Corn was raised 15¢ to a range of $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel. Beans were raised 75¢ to a range of $9.25 to $10.25 per bushel. Wheat was raised 30¢ to a range of $6.20 to $6.60 per bushel. The next update will be the final report on Jan. 11.
$10 for corn and $17 for soybeans is the going rate for organic corn and beans in Iowa, as a result of the high prices for commodity grain and beans. Iowa State’s organic program director says yields were improving with test plots recording 209 bu. organic corn and 65 bu. organic beans. But acreage is static because of high commodity prices.
Barring unforeseen developments, Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton says the next critical time in the wheat market will be when it comes out of dormancy. “After that, new crop hard red winter wheat will remain in a jittery weather market until near harvest.” He says prices will be bolstered by US acreage competition and replenishing low stocks.
Head scratching syndrome has spread from the Univ. of IL entomology staff to their counterparts at Iowa State, all because of inconsistencies in the performance of corn rootworm control programs. Bt corn performed very well at some test plots, but not at all of them. Products performed well at some plots, but not at all of them. Lodging was also inconsistent, but they said YieldGard Plus and Herculex XTRA gave the best protection.
Soybean rust is history for 2007, but 2008 may bring different weather patterns and an earlier threat. In November Headline and Folicur lost their registration. Others may soon expire, but others are in the registration process. Get a scorecard on Asian soybean rust fungicides.
Soybean rust trackers say any rust in the Midwest may likely originate in Central America, since there are Mexican plants that are host for the spores sentinel plots have been established there. Analyzing 2007, Iowa State Specialist Daren Mueller says:
1) LA, TX, & OK had adequate rainfall, and once established, rust moved northward.
2) August rainfall was beneficial in the western Cornbelt, but heat reduced its vitality.
3) Cooler September temps allowed rust to resume its spread to 19 states and Canada.
4) Rust levels under 1% can be identified, giving greater value to sentinel plots.
Soybean cyst nematodes were found in 71% of 205 soil samples obtained randomly around Iowa. Compared to a similar survey in 1995, researchers say SCN has not spread much in the past 10 years, nor has it receded. No-till and tilled fields are infested at equal rates. In 1995, 74% of 399 fields were infested, but fewer no-till fields were infested.
The SCN researchers at Iowa State tested the performance of N-Hibit™, sold as an SCN seed treatment. Read more.
1) For SCN resistant varieties, there was no yield difference reported with the product.
2) Yields of resistant varieties were significantly greater than susceptible varieties.
3) Treated susceptible varieties yielded more than untreated plots in 2 test plots.
4) There was no difference in yield in treated susceptible varieties in 7 test plots.
5) There were no statistical differences in SCN egg densities for the 9 test plots.
Did you use a corn fungicide just because it might be a good idea, or it was needed? Iowa State researchers said fungicide trials gave yield responses from a loss of 15.6 bu. to a gain of 21.6 bu. per acre. The average yield response was a positive 3.3 bu. and 77% of the fields had a positive response. But only 27% of the fields yielded enough to pay for the fungicide treatment. Researchers say fungicide should be an IPM-based decision.
If fertilizer prices are causing you to consider cutting back on soil nutrients, Ohio State specialists say start first with a soil test. It will determine the need for P and K, and compare your results to established nutrient requirements for crops. Find them at:
1) Ohio:
2) Illinois:
3) Iowa:
Forage supply and demand went in opposite directions for many producers this year. To help reduce feed expenses, evaluate forage for sale, analyze livestock performance in the wake of forage shortages, and rejuvenate pastures and forage, Extension specialists at Purdue answer your questions.
New herbicides will be available for your 2008 corn crop. Check the entire list.
1) Halex GT is premix of Callisto, Dual Magnum & Touchdown for RR corn.
2) Laudis is a “bleacher” like Callisto for application in corn up to the V8 stage.
3) Require Q is a premix of Resolve, Banvel & Clarity for application on V2 to V7.
4) Resolve Q is a premix of Resolve & Harmony GT for application up to V7 stage.
5) SelectMax will kill poor stands of RR corn in preparation for replant in 4-5 days.
6) Surestart is a premix of Harness, Python & Stinger for RR or LL corn up to 11 in.
New herbicides will be available for your 2008 soybean crop. Among them are:
1) Authority Assist is a premix of Spartan and Pursuit for grass control in RR beans.
2) Authority MTZ is a premix of Spartan and Sencor for resistant weeds in RR beans.
3) Enlite is a premix of Valor, Classic & Harmony for resistant weeds in RR beans.
4) Envive is a premix of Valor, Classic & Harmony for resistant weeds in RR beans.
5) Prefix is a premix of Dual II Magnum & Flexstar for pre-emergent broadleaves.
6) Sonic & Authority First contain Spartan & Firstrate for RR resistant broadleaves.
7) Valor XLT is a premix of Valor & Classic for RR resistant broadleaf control.
Will hog prices climb next summer from what they are now? MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says the chance is low for that to happen. “Anyone who cannot stand much more losses needs to look at what the futures market is now offering for all of 2008 for foreword pricing at least a portion of their hogs with the futures market or a packer contract tied to the futures market.” Read more.
Glenn Grimes says, “If slaughter is close to current expectations next summer it will require demand growth similar to 2004 to get $53-54 live hogs in June of 2008. Another comparison is the current futures market is offering a price for June 2008 very close to the average for June for the years of 2003-2007. This seems highly unlikely with a projected slaughter of three percent plus or minus from 2007 in 2008.”
Grimes and his partner Ron Plain say meat demand has been stronger than in 2006:
1) Jan-Oct consumer demand was up .9% for beef, up 2.3% for pork, up 3.4% for turkey.
2) Live fed cattle demand was up 3.7%, and live hog demand was up 3.2%.
You are not a terrorist, but the Department of Homeland Security wants to know if you have more than 2,000 lbs. of ammonium nitrate, 60,000 lbs. of propane, 10,000 lbs. of anhydrous ammonia, or 400 lbs. of either potassium nitrate or sodium nitrate. Those amounts of fuels and fertilizers are on the “Top Screen” list which requires registration by Jan. 22.
Posted by Stu Ellis at December 14, 2007 12:28 AM | Permalink
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