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November 26, 2007
Ethanol: Taking A Look At The Big Picture (Part 3)
Will an ethanol plant raise the price of corn in your area? Will an ethanol plant generate numerous new jobs? Will an ethanol plant result in the establishment of a feedlot nearby to use the DDGS co-product? Will an ethanol plant energize your local community’s economy? Maybe yes. Maybe no. The farm gate has the answers.
Throughout the Cornbelt, ethanol plants are popping up as fast as a new McDonald’s, but their impact on the local economy is a bit more substantial, say Sarah Low and Andrew Isserman, agricultural economists in the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Economics, which has recently published a comprehensive report on ethanol. They studied the impact of ethanol plants on local communities, since 124 communities have them in operation and 76 more are in the planning or construction phases.
Early ethanol plants were added to corn wet milling plants and added value to the stream of products coming from the complex plants. But once oil prices climbed and corn prices remained low, it became economical to build dry mill corn plants just for production of ethanol. Of course the distillers’ dried grains were a co-product that has made it way to livestock feeding operations. Low and Isserman observe that some plants were farmer cooperatives designed to increase the value of their corn, but more recently the plants have been corporately owned. The local dry mill ethanol plant requires water, natural gas, yeasts, chemicals, enzymes, and corn which it usually pays a 5 to 10 cent premium over local elevators, just to ensure a year round supply without the necessity of storage expense. The premium prices paid for corn become capitalized into local land values, making both the price of the land and cash rent slightly more within the corn draw area around a plant. Low and Isserman say the opportunity to sell corn to an ethanol plant for that amount of premium will result in a 3.5% increase in cash rent, and a 1.4% increase in land values.
Farmers who sell corn to an ethanol plant use the premium to offset the cost of trucking, and 35 to 50 miles is generally the maximum anyone can afford to haul corn to an ethanol plant. Although most plants are built near the corn supply, some California plants pay for corn to be railed in, but have minimal expense in shipping the ethanol since it will be used nearby.
The ethanol industry’s total employment increased 50% between 2000 and 2005 as the number of plants increased from 54 to 124. While specific plant employment is not available, the Department of Labor statistics indicate over half of the ethanol plants will have employment between 20 and 49 workers. A dozen plants employ less than 20 workers, but there are a half dozen plants that employ 50 to 100 workers. Therefore, Low and Isserman say plants are not large community employers.
86% of the plants are located in rural areas, some in mixed counties, because of the need to be near the supply of corn. However, rail service is important, and a good highway is necessary because of the truck traffic. There is also a need for abundant water and power. Low and Isserman say any plans for development of an ethanol plant should address those issues. Another concern is the market for DDGS, and Low and Isserman say in 2005 80% of the DDGS produced was sold out of the region of the plant. A nearby feedlot will not only reduce transportation cost, but can use a wet form of the DDGS to save on the cost of drying it. It has a 5 to 7 day life without spoilage in the wet form. An increase in feeding operations have been locating near ethanol plants, say Low and Isserman, “Nationally, 54% of counties with an ethanol plant have an above average density of cattle on feed, and 87% of plants are within 50 miles of a county with an above average density, even when using data from the 2002 Census of Agriculture with current plant locations.”
Water requirements are substantial, with 300 million gallons of water needed by a plant that produces 100 million gallons of ethanol per year. Waste water treatment is also a major cost, as is a $30 million fee for natural gas for that same sized plant.
While the additional income from corn sales to an ethanol plant will result in more income for farm operators and higher rents for land owners, only a portion will be retained in the local community. Cash rent paid to absentee landowners will leave.
Summary:
A local ethanol plant may provide 30 to 50 additional jobs in the community, and raise the price of corn in addition to cash rents and land values. But an ethanol plant will stay in the community where there is transportation and water infrastructure near the source of corn. But the demand for water and the pressure on the local roadways will create a burden on the community. Political and economic issues challenge the future of the industry, but until the dynamics change that spurred the growth of the industry, local ethanol plants should be considered a contributor to the community economy.
Posted by Stu Ellis at November 26, 2007 12:46 AM | Permalink
Comments
The “old way” of guessing potential pricing opportunities changed. “Acre Wars” fueled by increase ethanol production is main reason for the change. A new way of gauging future outcomes is not clear, at least to me. Yeah carryout, ending stocks, are still important but the market is looking two and three years out which is a big guess especially when looking at the production side. If corn and soybeans have moved into the energy sector maybe we need to become petroleum analysis.
Some red flags fly when projecting the future ethanol production and demand. The capacity of on-line ethanol plant as of November 27, 2007 is projected at 7.2 billion gallons. Those plants will probably produce over 6 billion gallon is year (not all plant were in production for the full year so production lags capacity). There are 67 plants under construction and 10 plants adding capacity. These plants and additions will add an additional 6.2 billion in capacity. So by early 2009 the ethanol industry should have a production capacity over 13.4 billion gallons. A semi guesstimate puts production over 10 billion gallons of ethanol in 2008, a 65% increase from our estimated 2007 production. The increase is more than was produced in 2005. The concerns are where will it go, at what price, does production slow down and how low does corn go on the news?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration report the week of November 16, 2007 just over 11 million barrels of gasoline is produced each day in the United States. About 5.3 million barrels per day or about 48% are produced with ethanol. The week of November 12, 2004 around 8.7 million barrels per day of gasoline was produced and 2.8 million barrels or 32% was with ethanol.
Annualizing these numbers (which is not an accurate indication of real events) 137 billion gallons of gas will be produced in 2007 and 135 was produced in 2004. Around 59% of the gas will be blended with ethanol in 2007 and around 32% was blended in 2004. Ethanol is estimated to be 7.7% of the gasohol mix in 2007 and 7.9% in 2004.
Projecting our semi guesstimates forward, 2008 should produces around 139 billion gallons of gasoline. Around 62% will contain ethanol. A higher that historic blend rate of around 8% puts ethanol use in gasoline at 6.9 billion gallons in 2008. Production of 10.3 billion gallons is expected in 2008. Where does the 3.4 billion “extra” gallons (one third of 2008 projected production) go? Inclusion rates could go to 10% (if attractive enough for refiners /blenders to do so) that would use 8.6 billion gallons and 1.7 billion gallons (1 in 6 gallons) does not have a home.
Seventy four percent of gasoline consumption would have to be at the 10% blend rate to use the projected production. It is unlikely to see that high of a level in 2008 because of air quality regulation in some states that prevents ethanol usage (something about VOC volatile organic compounds). States like Florida, Georgia and Tennessee are working at changing their laws so ethanol can be used. So the question becomes when will the laws change and will the infrastructure to handle ethanol be in place. E 85 will help but the growth and infrastructure will prevent much change (in terms of billions of gallons) in 2008. Changing the laws that max ethanol blends at 10% (E 10) to 20% (E 20) or 30% (E 30) would be helpful. The solution appears to be political in nature.
So buy an E 85 vehicle (fuel may be cheap), “Acre Wars” may not hold up prices early in the fall of 2008 but acres could be real tight in 2009 if ethanol keep flowing and Rusty Beans may be better than ethanol soaked corn.
An Election Year is coming. Anything is possible.
Posted by: Freeport, IL at November 29, 2007 12:09 AM
Rusty beans may be better than ethanol soaked corn? Good luck!
Posted by: Freeport is bunk at December 1, 2007 8:42 PM
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