Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Farm Bill Update. The Senate’s consideration of the 2007 Farm Bill has become mired in political debate over which of 240 amendments can be considered, many of which have little to do with agriculture. In the House, a contingent of 22 Republican Members has co-sponsored a 1-year extension of the 2002 Farm Bill to continue current policy until the Senate can winch its way out of being stuck. Don’t expect a quick resolution.

The up and down USDA estimates of the corn crop are parallel to certain prior years says IL Extension’s Darrel Good. And using those trends, he says the 13.168 bil. bu. estimate in November could fade to 13.083 bil. in Jan. He bases that on the 153 bu. average yield fading to 152 bu./A which parallels the 1990 and 2006 crop forecasts. Both of those trended higher in the September report, then dropped in October and November.

Darrel Good expressed surprise at USDA’s lowering of its estimated feed use of corn in the November Crop Report, given the current record level of hog production. With year ending stocks forecast at 1.897 bil. bu., Good says if the crop is smaller than currently estimated and feed use larger than estimated, ending stocks may decline more. Read more.

World wheat buyers have switched from US to cheaper Black Sea markets says Kansas St. Outlook Specialist Mike Woolverton. But he says the US supply will be rationed over the next 7 months. He says USDA lowered Australian wheat estimates again because of quality, however he says the global wheat supply shortage eased a little with improved prospects for Argentine yields, however, the world supply is still at a thirty year low.

Woolverton urges farmers to watch the energy and financial markets which are linked to commodity markets. “The value of the dollar has dropped relative to other major world currencies recently. When the Fed lowered the interest rate, the dollar fell to an all-time low against the Euro. That caused global oil prices, which are quoted in US dollars, to jump to the mid-$90 range. Commodity prices rose, but the lower valued dollar made them seem less expensive to foreign buyers. US exports, including agricultural commodities, have been strong all year improving our trade deficit. That meant higher than long-term average prices for commodities sold by US agricultural producers.”

Woolverton says that may sound good, but he says if the dollar continues to weaken overseas banks and investors will shift holdings out of dollars to Euros, setting off an inflationary cycle that would hurt agriculture. He says, “It means that agricultural producers have another set of factors to watch as they make commodity marketing decisions.” Read his newsletter.

Don’t be fooled by TV commercials say Purdue entomologists who studied corn roots. “Side-by-side root rating comparisons of Bt-corn rootworm hybrids with different events (i.e., Agrisure, Herculex, YieldGard) are not possible. Plant genetics that determine a hybrid’s root mass, architecture, and rooting depth make direct root rating comparisons between the Bt events virtually impossible, since the plants are different in many ways, not just the presence or absence of Bt. Read their analysis of rootworm product performance.

The effectiveness is faltering for the gene that makes soybean varieties resistant to soybean cyst nematode. The gene is PI88788 and has been a 30 year veteran in 97% of the SCN resistant soybean varieties. But Purdue nematologist Jamal Faghihi says it is not working as well as expected since failure was first noted in 2005. He says Tennessee beans are no longer resistant; but Canadian beans are still resistant; and Illinois and Indiana beans are in between. He said beans with Peking and CystX genes resist SCN.

Test plot averages of 246 bu./A for corn and 70 bu./A for beans are enticing, but what varieties were planted? That is revealed in the latest IL variety trials website. Yield results are available on 311 corn hybrids, 544 soybean varieties that are glyphosate resistant, and 57 conventional soybean varieties.

When looking for seed corn, Ohio State, agronomist Peter Thomison says, “It may become increasingly difficult for growers to get good information on the performance of non-transgenic hybrids simply because there won't be as much information out there. From a cost standpoint, growers don't want to pay for features they may not need, but from a production standpoint, fewer transgenics will be available in the future."

It may not only be the two-legged critters who steal your nitrogen, but it may be stolen by a healthy crop of giant ragweed. Weed specialists at Wisconsin applied 180 lb of N to a field prior to planting corn. The giant ragweed emerged with the corn, and by the 16 in. level ragweed had removed 10 lbs of N. By the end of the season, giant ragweed had removed 58 lbs of N while the corn had accumulated 97 lbs. It has expensive tastes.

Your combine is beginning a long winter, spring, and summer nap, and probably well deserved. But it also deserves some TLC suggested by MO Extension’s Bill Casady:
1) Dust and chaff make good rodent bedding, so make sure it is eliminated.
2) A “clean” combine may still hold a bushel of grain, which is great rodent food.
3) Mice in the combine gnaw on wires, and you’ll wonder why that gauge won’t work.
4) Birds that like your combine for its grain will make a nest that is a fire hazard.
5) Before maintenance, remove the key and teach everyone around about the hazards.
6) Compressed air is a better choice than water to clean debris and dust and prevent rust.
7) Avoid allowing a high pressure washer to hit any seals and bearings on the combine.
8) Remove the battery, lightly oil the terminals, and store it with periodic charging.
9) Clean the air and fuel systems, drain the water, and use a stabilizer in the fuel tank.

Food prices are 4.4% higher this year than one year ago, thanks to a 15% rise in dairy prices and a 45% hike in egg prices. Purdue economist Corinne Alexander said energy costs are higher and food retailers are passing that onto the customer in the food bill. She also said prices of foods made with wheat are up 10%; and while the Thanksgiving turkey will cost about 94 cents more than last year, prices of the trimmings are lower.

Weekly hog slaughter remains above 2.3 mil. head for the fifth consecutive week says MO Extension’s Glenn Grimes, but he says prices are holding well despite cold storage and the pipeline being full. He believes prices may be pushed lower indicated by the futures market, but he says packers have handled record numbers quite well so far.

Overall meat demand is up says Grimes and colleague Ron Plain who compared Jan. through Sept. to 2006. Beef was up 0.2%, pork up 1.4%, and turkey up 2.3%. Broiler demand was down 2.3%. They report live fed cattle demand was up 3.3% and live hog demand up 3%. They attributed the demand for fed cattle to the increase in beef exports.

Cattle economist Dillon Feuz has urged cattle feeders to consider ethanol co-products, specifically WDGS at 30-40% of the ration and DDGS at 20-30% of the ration, “At these rates, it appears that average daily gain is increased and feed efficiency is also improved for cattle on finishing programs. There does not appear to be much if any impact on marbling and yield grades from feeding these levels of distillers grains in the diet.”

“The concern among cowboys,” says Feuz are the politicians who try to beat each other at raising the renewable fuels mandate, which he thinks will be 15 billion gallons from grain, which means 5 bil. bu. of corn, equal to what is being fed to livestock, “Corn prices will be higher than present levels. All other grain, oilseeds, and hay prices will likely be higher. The feedlot industry will adjust to higher grain prices, and feeding of DDGS will help. But, calf prices will likely be lower.” Read his newsletter.

If you are buying hay, weigh some bales to make sure you are getting what you pay for says Purdue beef specialist Ron Lemenager. And he says that is particularly true for those who buy baled corn stalks. A 1,000 lb.-sized bale might only weigh 800 lbs. and the cattle will only eat 60% of it, so the bale has only 480 lbs of usable feed value. But he said using a grinder will improve consumption and digestibility of the corn stalks.

Coincidental to the override of the veto of the Water Resources Development Act, which will finance renovation of locks and dams on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, MO economist Seth Meyer says lock failure on either would cost a half billion dollars to corn and soybean producers from diminished prices. Meyer says, "When you shut off the river, you push down prices in Iowa for corn and push prices up at the Gulf."

Meyer’s study examined Lock 25 north of St. Louis and the LaGrange Lock on the Illinois River. He says over 60 million tons of goods, valued at more than $29 bil. went through the locks in 2005 and a failure of either increases the cost of products all the way from Iowa to the Gulf. But he says lower grain prices at upper Midwestern locations means farmers may store grain to increase demand, anticipating the river will reopen.