Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

USDA’s November Crop Report forecast US corn production at 13.167 bil. bu. which is 1% under the October estimate and slightly under the market expectation of 13.261 bil. bu. Carryover next August was estimated at 1.897 bil. under market expectations of 1.932 bil. Feed use was lowered 50 mil. bu. and other uses were retained from October. USDA raised the season average price by 30¢, increasing the range from $3.20 to $3.80.

USDA’s November Crop Report nudged downward its soybean production estimate from 2.598 to 2.594 bil. bu., compared to market expectations of 2.606 bil. bu. Usage estimates were retained and the carryout next August was lowered from 215 to 210 mil. bu. The season average price estimate was raised 65¢ to a range of $8.50 to $9.50.

The short crop from the 1988 drought pushed NOV beans to $10.46, the only time that contract has traded above $10 until this week, says Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good. While soybean futures have risen, so has the river basis (43¢) and interior IL basis (20¢) in the past 2 weeks. And Good expects the basis to continue to strengthen.

Driving the bean market is soybean oil which has reacted to strong exports and high crude oil prices. Darrel Good says USDA had expected a 24% decline in soybean oil exports for the current marketing year, but so far they are 22% larger than last year. He says high soy oil prices have kept biodiesel margins thin, even with high fuel prices.

With low soybean stocks, Good says more acreage will be needed in 2008, but forecasts will be inaccurate until South American production is known. With new crop futures high, some producers will be committing acres, but he says new crop corn is still more profitable than beans. The new highs in beans offer marketing opportunities says Good, who expects more volatility in the months to come. Read more in his current newsletter.

Non-land costs for 2008 corn could be as high as $380 per acre on good soils say Extension economists Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz, which is up $42 from 2007. The increase is a result of higher input costs, rent, and crop insurance. The result is the expectation that break-even prices for corn could be as high as $3.00 per bushel.

Non-land costs for 2008 soybeans could be as high as $228 per acre on good soils say Illinois economists Schnitkey and Lattz. Higher input costs are the cause and may push the break-even cost for soybeans over the $8 mark. Visit their farm economics newsletter.

Diesel fuel prices, as indicated by futures contracts, are 38% higher than they were a year ago, and that difference will increase through next year. Prices throughout 2008 are expected to be higher than comparable months in 2007, says Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter.

Cattle feeders have been seeing some red ink this fall, says Extension’s Shane Ellis at Iowa State, he expects that to continue until the second quarter of 2008. “Producers using a position on the futures market would have their best chance of locking in a profit from April to June. We also see from this comparison the steady to slightly bullish year over year trends in the Iowa fed cattle market.” He says uncertainty in the 2008 corn crop have kept the expected breakeven price for fed cattle well above expected sale values.”

Pork producers are also seeing red ink, says Shane Ellis as the hog market softens. “Losses are expected to continue until March and even May, but the futures market is forecasting added strength next summer. Corn prices in the next year will continue to be a question mark, but corn futures next fall do not bode well for production costs. That said, any moderation in feed costs will add to the hope of net profitability again in 2008.”

Economics are going against Canadian pork producers, says MO economist Glenn Grimes, “The Canadian dollar earlier this week was worth about 5% more than the US$. This means the price received for hogs in Canada has declined about 35% relative to what price the US producer has received in last few years. We expect the Canadian dollar to continue strong relative to the US$ and Canadian hog producers are expected to continue to reduce the size of their hog herd.”

Livestock producers in areas with aflatoxin problems should have all droughty corn tested before feeding. The maximum levels established by the government are 300 ppb for finishing beef cattle, 200 ppb for finishing swine over 100 lbs, 100 ppb for beef breeding cattle, breeding swine, and mature poultry, and 20 ppb for other animal feeds. Dairy cattle rations should not contain more than 20 ppb to avoid milk contamination.

With nearly half of 2008 corn containing Bt toxins to control corn borers, entomologists are wondering if they are becoming an endangered specie and whether to budget for continued surveys. Apparently the finding is widespread. The 2007 IL survey indicated 10.7% of corn plants were infested and there were only 13.4 larvae per 100 corn plants.

But the habitat for European corn borers will increase as more acres of corn are planted. Extension entomologists Mike Gray and Kevin Steffey say with more Bt corn, the ECB mortality should increase, with refuge plantings. Without the required refuges, the potential will increase for corn borer populations to develop resistance to Bt corn.

Soybean aphids have been a rare visitor to traps this fall, which may be an indication that populations are low and 2008 will be a year in which soybean aphids are not a serious problem. But Extension’s Kevin Steffey says the Asian lady beetle, which is an aphid predator, has not been that common, which may also predict low aphid numbers.

Did you have greenstem in your soybeans, and if so, how was the yield? Ohio State’s Jim Beuerlein says the drought caused soybean plants to digest their leaves to fill pods and consequently the stems remained green while there was still water movement. While greenstem was a curse during harvest, it indicated that yields were better than expected.

Harvesting throughout the day puts grain in the bin at a wide temperature variation, which MO Extension engineer Bill Casady says is both good and bad. Dry, warm grain dries out the wetter grain, and the wetter, cooler grain cools the hotter grain. But he says the warm, moist grain is a haven for fungi, so the cooler the grain, the better for storage.

In managing the temperature of stored grain, Casady recommends measuring air at the top of the grain before starting a fan. Run the fan continuously until the temperature drops 10-15 degrees. Repeat several weeks later as needed until the grain temperature is 35-40 degrees. He says that will extend the shelf life of the grain for longer storage.

If you have harvested some drier than market moisture content grain, Casady says you may wish to run fans selectively from about dusk until dawn to cool the grain. Very little or no increase in moisture content will occur, but the grain will cool to more acceptable levels quickly. Read his recommendations.

Temperatures during corn maturity, then harvest, then storage created the potential for blue-eye mold says Purdue’s Dirk Maier, which he says is an indicator of something that went wrong during the storage process. It grows at lower moisture and survives cooler temperatures than other molds and he says look for steam or odor coming from the bin.

Your field loss germinated quite well in corn stubble and could be good temporary forage, if your cattle are eating hay, other grasses or corn stalks. But pure volunteer corn will have too much nitrate if it is growing in droughty areas. IL Extension Livestock Specialist Dean Oswald says get the corn tested for nitrate content if in doubt.

The lush crop of volunteer corn could be a detriment to any crop of wheat that might follow it or be planted nearby. IL Extension pathologist Loretta Ortiz-ribbing says it is a food source for the wheat curl mite that carries wheat streak mosaic virus. Weather has been good for mite survival along with corn leaf aphids which carry yellow dwarf virus.

If you remember low prices after the export-oriented 1996 Farm Bill, Extension’s Daryll Ray at the Univ. of TN says you won’t like the proposed Average Crop Revenue plan in the 2007 Farm Bill. The policy specialist says it is based on ethanol and exports, just like the 1996 legislation, which preceded a commodity price decline. Ray says ACR is good with high prices, but not with low prices. Read his newsletter.

The Average Crop Revenue provision in the Senate’s Farm Bill is designed to level out per acre revenue says Daryll Ray. “The ACR provides a relatively high income safety net if prices or yields drop from current levels for one year or so. If prices fall and remain low for a string of years, the ACR safety net is quickly lowered to ground level.”