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August 16, 2007
The 2007 Crop Has Been A Dream For Some And A Nightmare For Others
At the middle of August most of the corn in the Cornbelt is in the dough stage, and with the help of 90 and 100 degree days, much of it is close to the blacklayer and the drydown phase. Soybeans are fully podded, but pods are not fully filled yet, and more moisture is needed or the “bloom” will come off the yield in many regions. Let’s take a crop check around the Cornbelt and see how crops have progressed and the moisture status.
The National Agriculture Statistics Service tabulates everything in agriculture, from mint and gravenstien apples in Michigan to windmill maintenance in New Mexico, and every week this complete report is available in capsule form from each state.
ILLINOIS: Topsoil moisture has fallen to the 57% short to very short range. Crops are ahead of schedule, with 40% of the corn dented, compared to 31% last year, and 4% is already mature. 2% of the soybeans are turning yellow, ahead of last year and the five-year average. “Dry, hot conditions throughout Illinois continued to place strain on field crops this past week. Scattered showers in parts of the state provided little relief from the extremely high temperatures received across the state. Topsoil moisture conditions continued to deteriorate and average temperatures were over 8 degrees above normal this past week.”
INDIANA: Topsoil moisture is 71% short to very short. And the subsoil moisture is even drier. 73% of the corn is in the dough stage, compared to 55% for the five year average. 57% is in the fair or less category for condition. 78% of the beans are setting pods ahead of the 66% for the five year average. However, 57% are in the fair to poor condition category. Livestock were reported under stress, with 100+ temperatures last week in southern counties. “Many central and southern areas continue to suffer from the intense heat and declining soil moisture. Farmers continue to spray soybeans to control aphids and spider mites.”
IOWA: With more rain, 80% of soils have adequate to surplus moisture, and 65% of subsoil moisture is also adequate. Only 52% of the corn is in the dough stage, 64% is in the good to excellent category. 89% of the beans are setting pods and 71% are good to excellent. “Select areas saw damaging winds. The week concluded with above normal temperatures and high humidity, causing stress to livestock and pastures. Spraying for soybean aphids continues, as population counts are high. A small number of counties are experiencing soybean sudden death syndrome.”
KANSAS: Topsoil moisture is about evenly split between adequate and short, but over 60% of the subsoil has adequate to surplus moisture. Kansas livestock producers report 86% of their stock has adequate feed grains, and 81% has adequate hay supplies.
MICHIGAN: 70% of the topsoil is short of adequate moisture, and 83% of the subsoil is short of moisture as well. The corn maturity is on track for Michigan, but that means 90+% is just now silking. “As of August 7, drought conditions from National Drought Mitigation Center (www.drought.unl.edu/dm), classified virtually all of State from abnormally dry to extreme drought.” Some recent showers were insufficient, but did relieve some stress. Corn condition continued to vary depending on amount of rainfall received. Scattered showers limited in other areas and drier areas continued to show considerable amounts of firing of lower leaves. Soybeans continued setting and filling pods. Spider mites continued to be present.”
MINNESOTA:. Topsoil moisture is 78% short of adequate. While nearly all of the corn has progressed into the milk stage, 3% of the soybeans are already turning yellow. Pastures are dry as well with 71% in the poor to very poor category. “Minnesota's crop conditions edged upward as scattered showers moved through the state during the past week. Although statewide topsoil moisture supplies were rated mostly short or very short, some drought areas of central Minnesota received an inch or more of needed rain. 90% of the small grain crop has been harvested, and soybean producers are currently fighting aphids and spider mites.
MISSOURI: It is dry in Missouri as well, with 84% of the topsoil in the short or very short moisture category. The southern two-thirds of the state experienced little to no relief from dryness and very hot temperatures. “Row crop and pasture conditions deteriorated considerably. There were reports of corn blown over by high winds during thunderstorms in the northwest. Reporters indicate that corn in the driest areas continues to mature rapidly. Double-crop soybeans are short and struggling to grow. Single-crop soybeans are filling pods slowly in many areas; the driest areas are seeing parts of fields wilt. Reports of producers feeding hay are common in most districts. Livestock water shortages are still isolated, although concern is mounting in several areas.”
NEBRASKA: Topsoil moisture is better than most Cornbelt states with a 64% adequate rating and 6% surplus. 60% of the subsoil also has adequate moisture. Corn is 78% good to excellent, with 77% in the dough stage and well ahead of the five year average. Soybeans are 73% good to excellent with 81% setting pods. The sorghum crop is 82% good to excellent and 3% is turning color.
NORTH DAKOTA:. Topsoil moisture is rated 33% short and 54% adequate, with subsoil moisture in the same condition. 25% of the durum wheat has been harvested, but only 39% of the soybeans are fully podded and that is well behind the 70% of last year, but right on the five year average. 68% are in good to excellent condition.
Stockwater supplies are 75% adequate, and pasture conditions are 80% fair to good.
OHIO: Topsoil moisture is 54% in the short to very short category. But crops are maturing rapidly with 96% of the soybeans setting pods and 67% of the corn in the dough stage. That is ahead of schedule for both beans and corn due to dryness. Corn condition are rated 61% fair or worse, and soybeans are 57% fair or worse with aphids breaking out. 85% of pastures range from fair to very poor conditions.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Topsoil moisture is equally split between adequate and short, with subsoil dryness more prevalent. Small grains are all ripe with 80%+ harvested. Corn is entering the pollination stage, but 5% of the soybeans are already dropping leaves.
Livestock feed supplies are rated 77% adequate, and stockwater supplies are 59% adequate. “For the second week in a row, much of the state received rainfall. Corn and soybeans benefited from the moisture, but more is still needed. Small grain harvest is nearing complete as some producers begin preparations for the row crop harvest.”
WISCONSIN: Topsoil moisture is 63% short to very short and only 33% rate as adequate. 39% of the corn is in the dough stage with 58% in the fair to very poor category. 82% of the beans are setting pods, and 54% of the crop is rated fair to very poor. Pasture conditions are 81% fair to very poor due to shortage of rain and abundance of heat.
Summary:
Some parts of the Cornbelt have been garden spots for much of the growing season, and for other parts there has been less moisture and more heat than found in a desert. As a result of the heat, many crops have maturing more rapidly than usual and there will likely be an early start to harvest in many regions of the Cornbelt. Some of those areas will need temporary grain storage based on the good crop conditions, but other areas will have unused storage due to droughty conditions.
Posted by Stu Ellis at August 16, 2007 12:48 AM | Permalink
Comments
This state summary report makes it hard to envision USDA's 152.8 bu per acre average corn yield.
Secretary Johanns was to announce the departments position on allowing CRP acres out of the program. If they allow acres out, how many acres are suitable/available for beans, corn and wheat?
Posted by: Freeport, IL at August 20, 2007 11:22 AM
March 8, 2007 press release from the USDA indicated 2.6 million arces that expire 9-30-07 declined renewal.
March 9,2007 press release from the USDA indicated 4.6 million acres will exit CRP between 2007 and 2010. Major corn producing states are estimated to be 1.4 million of those arces.
USDA's 7-27-07 report "Summary of Active and expiring CRP Acres by State" shows 5.1 million acres expiring 9-30-07. North Dakota lead the list with 977,000 acres availalbe to come out followed by Montana with 617,000, Iowa 361,000, South Dakota 356,000, Missouri 280,000, Texas 276,000, Kansas 267,000. Illinois has 123,000 acres.
Posted by: FYI at August 21, 2007 12:07 PM