Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

USDA’s Supply/Demand Report last week reflected good news for corn exporters, says IL Extension’s Darrel Good. USDA forecast 2.15 bil. bu. being sold abroad. And Darrel says, “The increase reflects declining crop production prospects in the rest of the world, slightly less export competition, and expanding world consumption.”

The big new crop will be used, says Good, with ethanol’s help, “Domestic processing use of corn during the upcoming year is projected at 4.79 bil. bu., up 1.265 bil. from use during the current year. That projection is unchanged from the July forecast. Use of corn for all purposes during the 2007-08 marketing year is forecast at 12.69 bil. bu., 200 mil. above the July forecast and 1.315 bil. more than expected for the year just ending.”

Darrel Good says even with Thursday’s sell off, futures prices are above USDA’s estimates for the marketing year or at the high end. Even so, prices are expected to remain well supported until more is known about the actual size of the 2007 crop. Estimates of So. American bean acreage will continue to take on more importance.

On the issue of storage space, Good says if new space was added at the same rate this year as last, nationally there will be enough by about the same margin as in 2004 and 2005. “Even in Illinois, where the corn crop is expected to be 27% larger than in 2006, the deficit of storage space will not likely be larger than in 2004.” Read Darrel Good’s latest newsletter.

Where are grain prices going? Extension economists answered a survey from MO and IA colleagues, and their consensus opinion for December, March and June prices is:
1) CBOT Corn: $3.35 on 12/3/07; $3.52 on 3/3/08; and $3.65 on 6/30/08.
2) CBOT Beans: $8.84 on 12/3/07; $8.87 on 3/3/08; and $8.76 on 6/30/08.
3) KC Wheat: $6.02 on 12/3/07; $6.14 on 3/3/08; and $5.46 on 6/30/08.

Meat, milk, and egg production are expected to increase in 2007 and 2008, according to a survey by MO and IA ag economists. Beef is the only commodity expected to show a year-over-year decline. Iowa State’s John Lawrence says, “This increase is expected in spite of the higher corn prices. While expansion may be less that previously expected, it doesn’t look like higher feed prices have triggered liquidation in animal agriculture yet.”

The MO & IA survey says choice steers are predicted to set record high prices in 2007 and again in 2008. Feeder cattle prices will be held back by feed costs. Given the current forecast of corn and SBM prices, pork producers should remain at or above breakeven for the next two years. Milk prices are at record high levels and expected to post higher prices through the second quarter of 2008. Turkey, broiler and egg prices are declining.

There could be problems in your cornfield from ear rots and various fungi, some quite innocent, and some quite serious, such as an aflatoxin problem, according to IL Extension Specialist Suzanne Bissonnette. She says droughty corn could have an aspergillus fungus infection, producing aflatoxin.

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen, and the FDA prohibits consumption of more than 20 PPB by humans, immature animals, dairy cattle, or where the eventual use of the corn is unknown. The presence of aspergillus in a corn sample does not mean it is unwholesome or that it will contain high levels of aflatoxin, says Bissonnette. Black light and chemical analysis testing is necessary to determine how much toxin may have been produced.

So what do you do if you think your droughty corn could be harboring aflatoxin?:
1) Harvest any drought stressed or insect infested corn when the moisture allows.
2) Set the combine blower on high and slow the header speed to reduce fines and trash.
3) Dry the grain to 13% to 14% moisture within a 24-48 hour period after harvest.
4) Keep moisture at 13% or below for long term storage, 14% for short term storage.
5) Crop insurance will cover aflatoxin in the field, but ask your agent about storage.

Corn farmers who irrigated and planted Bt varieties will experience fewer problems with aflatoxin, says Missouri’s Allen Wrather. That’s because the kernels from irrigated corn will have fewer stress cracks due to drought and less injury from ear worm. Bt varieties are not resistant to ear worm, but will experience less ear worm feeding injury.

Did corn rootworms consume your corn roots? Researchers at the Univ. of IL have tallied the results of Bt and soil insecticide performance; and entomologist Mike Gray says, “Producers typically expect equivalent levels of root protection among Bt corn rootworm hybrids. Our data suggest that these expectations may not always be fulfilled, even though transgenic hybrids with the same Bt event have been used.”

Details of the corn root evaluations have been published by Gray and his colleagues. Getting a variety of results from the performance tests, the researchers, “…ask that producers not become complacent and assume that Bt corn rootworm hybrids will always outperform soil insecticides when it comes to root protection. This is simply not the case. For sure, the "bulletproof" image often portrayed of this technology for corn rootworm control is somewhat misleading.”

Despite the lack of August rain, corn kernels may be larger than expected due to the extra growing degree days, says Extension Crop Production Specialist Emerson Nafziger, “Growing degree day (GDD) accumulations have been steady since pollination, with some acceleration due to warm night temperatures.” Late planted fields are an exception.

Soybeans may be aborting the newest formed pods, if they are in drought stress says Nafziger. “It is thus possible under extreme stress to end up with few pods or seeds on a plant, hence little yield potential. At some point pods will tend to remain attached even as stress continues and intensifies.” He says in extreme cases pods will stop filling. Read his weekly crop comments.

Did you spray for weeds, bugs, and fungus, whether they were there or not? If you sprayed “as insurance against pests,” you’ll find a bushel of conservation incentives for adopting IPM practices instead..

Soybean rust has been slow to spread in AR and the hot, dry weather has slowed development in OK. LA and TX are seeing more rust activity because the weather has not been quite as extreme. With the slow movement of soybean rust north and the hot, dry weather throughout much of MO, Extension Specialist Laura Sweets suggests that fungicide applications for soybean rust are not necessary at this time in MO.

Soybean aphids continue to appear in hot spots, with populations approaching the treatment threshold, despite the hot temperatures. Entomologists say the Asian lady beetles are coming to the rescue and should suppress the aphid populations before overwintering. Researchers say most data to date suggest that “an insecticide application to R6 soybeans infested with soybean aphids will not pay for itself in yield benefit.”

If you are spraying spider mites or soybean aphids, should you add glyphosate to get the last few weeds? Ohio State agronomists say if you have not applied the maximum rate of 2.25 lb ae/A, then it may prevent seed formation in those weeds. If the weeds have survived prior doses of glyphosate, then your resistance problem will not be helped at all.

If you are spraying weedy beans with glyphosate, to prevent seed formation and problems next year, Ohio State’s Mark Loux and Jeff Stachler warn you about injury to soybeans that may be drought stressed. Glyphosate labels say the herbicide should not be applied after the R-3 stage begins in soybeans. Read more.

If forage is short, letting your cattle have run of an entire pasture will decrease plant health and hurt future forage production says Wisconsin’s Dennis Cosgrove. And he says a similar mistake is to let cattle graze in a rotational paddock as soon as there is some regrowth. “Plants overgrazed during drought will grow slowly in comparison.”

If your alfalfa suffered from the spring weather, and needs to be re-established, Kansas State’s Jim Shroyer says if you have enough moisture, a fall seeded crop will be more productive than a spring seeded crop in the first year. His recommendations include:
1) Plant early enough to have 3-5 trifoliate leaves before the first frost.
2) Test the soil and add lime before planting. P & K should be annual inputs.
3) Use a press wheel for good soil contact or no-till into small grain stubble.
4) Check for herbicide carryover, if planting into any type of crop stubble.

Pork prices could jump says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes because of rumors that China is expected to import 70,000 tons of US pork and since it is in carcass weight equivalents it would be to close to 154 mil. lbs. Grimes says it would amount to 63% of the May total US pork exports and “if this turns out to be true, it will help hog prices in coming weeks, and the odds now appear pretty good for this to be real.”