Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Wheat prices continue to set records. That is because of shorter crops in the US and strong overseas demand. At Kansas State, Mike Woolverton says, “The global wheat carryover stocks forecast is at the lowest level since 1979/80. Production and harvest problems in European Union countries and in Canada were cited as reasons for the drop. Persistent dry growing conditions are expected to limit replenishment of world stocks from Southern Hemisphere wheat producing countries. US exports are 90% over 2006.

Wheat prices will fade, and Woolverton says act quickly to take advantage of strong prices, “The market is pricing wheat at shortage levels now, but the shortage is likely to be alleviated by next summer, followed by even more wheat production the following year. The message from the market to producers is clear, lock in price on as much 08 and 09 wheat as possible now or expect to get at least one dollar per bushel less next July; even less the following July.” Read his newsletter.

But the corn and bean markets are different says Woolverton, who believes the strong demand for them will continue. “There are 4 Dec corn contracts on the board. At $3.60, the Dec. 07 contract is the only one below four dollars. All are well above the long term average price for corn. It might be a good business decision to lock in profits on parts of this and future year crops now. The same can be said about soybeans for 07, 08 and 09. While it looks as if soybean prices will remain high; and it might go to $10 per bushel sometime during the next three years, it could also fall to below the cost of production.”

Knowing your actual yield may be less than a month away, but if you can’t wait, make corn yield estimates based on kernel count in one-one thousandth of an acre. That is 17 ft and 5 in. for 30 in. rows. Pick 3 representative ears, then calculate average kernels by kernels and kernel rows. Total ears X kernel rows X kernels divided by 90 equals bu. per acre based on 90,000 kernels per bu. Repeat the process at random locations for accuracy, or visit the IL calculator.

Double crop and drought-stressed beans may make better hay or forage than their seed value. But Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says beware of herbicide impact:
1) A Canopy (soil) application prevents grazing or harvesting beans for forage.
2) Ultra Blazer (post emerge) also prohibit use in livestock feed or forage.
3) Dual II Magnum prohibits feeding if applied post emerge, but not for pre-emerge.
4) FirstRate carries a 14 day restriction between application and harvest for forage.
5) Glyphosate also carries a 14 day restriction between application and feeding.
6) Some Glyphosates have a 25 day restriction if used on non-Roundup Ready beans.

Heavy Iowa rains have caused concerns about crop quality, and Iowa State’s Palle Pedersen says submerged beans will die because of high temperatures; however it is hard to predict the future for beans in 6-12 in. of standing water. Pedersen says beans in standing water for 48-72 hours will suffer stem rot, then lodging, and finally seed rot.

Soybean agronomist Pedersen is also concerned about moist pods that will attract bean leaf beetles, foliar diseases, downy mildew and phomopsis that will hurt seed quality. He says there is not much to be done, but hope water recedes rapidly and some yield saved.

Some Ohio beans are also flooded and Ohio State researchers are analyzing 220 Asian varieties that show abilities to survive flooding. Beans cannot usually handle the toxicity of carbon dioxide and will lose up to 60% of their yield. The Ohio State project hopes to find a flood tolerant bean that will lose no less than 20% of its yield.

The rains that flooded Iowa are atypical, since most research on the impact of standing water has been done on crops early in the growing season. Some Iowa State research indicates that “once corn has reached silking, shallow depths of flooding will not cause much damage.” Agronomists say root masses are typically declining now. Long term:
1) Stalk disease and lodging will increase with harvest delays to be expected.
2) Ear disease and molds will occur on submerged ears, making them unmarketable.
3) Poor grain quality will create storage and handling problems on farms and elevators.
4) The nitrogen content of the soil will change, and soil sampling should be scheduled.

Normally, healthy, intact kernels at the dent growth stage are not easily infected by fungi, however, Ohio State agronomists say these same kernels softened by excess moisture and damaged by birds become easy targets for both fungi and bacteria and ear rots, most of which are present in soil particles and debris found in flood waters.

But if you feed flood-damaged corn, animal scientist Bill Weiss at Ohio State says soil contamination is not a big concern, since silage will have more dirt. But microbial contamination can cause fermentation problems within the ruminant digestion process and increase the amount of mold and mycotoxins, possibly solved with feed additives.

Scout cornfields for stalk problems, says Purdue’s Bob Nielson. Any stress on a plant, such as too much heat or too many clouds, will impact the rate of photosynthesis, and if that rate declines during grainfill, then stored carbohydrates from the stalk and leaves are shifted into the grain formation process. He says some stalk problems are appearing.

Whether you have been wet, or hot and dry, your soybean aphid problems may have ended for the year. Purdue entomologists say the combination of heavy rains with hot conditions and maturing beans have aphid populations declining rapidly over much of the observation area. Note that the exception is late-planted beans, which will be vulnerable to any aphids looking for soybeans to feed on before overwintering. Keep scouting.

Soybean rust is a diminished threat to the Cornbelt at this point. The USDA’s Asian rust website reports, “In a majority of the areas that were confirmed with soybean rust, rust has remained active but at extremely low levels. Soybean rust is expected to remain at low levels with little movement to other parts of AR as long as the environmental conditions remain the same (hot and dry). Conditions across the region (AR, MS, LA, TN, MO) remain very unfavorable for infection and development of soybean rust.”

If you are drying grain, the drying time is a function of airflow, says NE Extension’s Tom Dorn. But air flows easier and with less energy in a larger diameter bin than a smaller one. The grain depth is shallower in a wider bin holding the same bushels as a smaller diameter bin. That saves on fan size and energy costs. Read the details.

Natural air drying is the recommendation of Ohio State’s Robert Hansen, who says it saves energy costs, but may take 25-30 days to dry 25% moisture corn to 15%. He says it takes extra management, but saves money and works best for long term stored grain.

Pork production is growing slowly despite high feed prices. Purdue’s Chris Hurt says beef and poultry cut back to the point that less meat supply left the door open for pork. He also says that pork was profitable when corn prices rose, and producers elected to absorb feed costs. Read his newsletter.

Chris Hurt says, “The future outlook for the pork industry appears to be one of near breakeven prices overall. Per capita supplies of meat and poultry are expected to begin rising again with pork production to expand by about 3% over the next year.” He is looking for 51-52% lean hogs to average $46-49 over the fall and winter. And he says with both higher market and feed prices next year, margins may be limited to $2/cwt.

China’s misfortune is a gain for the US pork producer, says Missouri’s Glenn Grimes. “It now looks like the speculation about exporting extra pork to China because of their pork shortfall due to disease is likely to happen. China has a zero-tolerance policy for ractopamine. China has just delisted seven more pork plants for finding traces of ractopamine in US pork products. The total number of pork plants delisted is 15.”

Everyone in the beef industry, but the packers, benefited from the higher retail prices for beef in January-July says Glenn Grimes. “The beef processor-retailer margin for this period this year was up 2.5% from last year and fed cattle prices were up 8.6%, but packers’ margin was down 14.8% for the first 7 months of 2007 compared to 2006.”

Beware of red ink in cattle feeding, if steers are purchased for $116-117. Extension livestock economist Dillon Feuz says $3.25 corn means 68¢ per pound feeding cost, and with typical economic deductions, the break-even cost for an 850 lb. steer at a NE or KS feedlot would be $1.16 per pound. He says there is no profit in feeding them.

Aptly titled, "Grain Marketing is Simple (it's just not easy)," is a new Extension publication from MN’s Center for Farm Financial Management, and profiles such marketing notables as “Barney Binless, Hank Holder and Darla Discipline.” Order it for $30 on-line. Readers will learn common mistakes in grain marketing, pre and post harvest marketing plans, and putting it all together.