Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

USDA’s August 1 Crop Report estimated the new corn crop at 13.053 bil. bu., 24% above the 2006 crop of 10.534 bil. bu. The national average yield was pegged at 152.8 bu. per acre, the 2nd highest behind the 160.4 bu. in 2004. USDA also increased export estimates by 150 mil., feed use by 50 mil. and put Aug. 2008 carryover at 1.516 bil. bu.

USDA’s August 1 Crop Report estimated soybean production at 2.625 bil. bu., 18% lower from the 3.188 bil. bu. of last year. The average yield was estimated at 41.5 bu. per acre, which is down 1.2 bu. from last year. USDA raised domestic use, lowered exports, but kept the crush steady. The August 2008 carryout was lowered to 220 mil. bu.

USDA’s August 1 Crop Report adjusted the 2007 wheat production estimate to 2.114 bil. bu., down 1% from the July estimate, but up 17% from 2006 production of 1.8 bil. bu. The national average yield was estimated at 40.6 bu. Winter wheat production was cut 25 mil. bu. Feed use was cut 35 mil, exports raised 25 mil. and carryout cut 14 mil.

USDA’s August 1 Crop Report estimated season average wheat prices to range $5.10 to $5.70, up 30¢ from July estimates, and driven by a tighter market from lower world production. The season average corn price is unchanged from July at $2.80 to $3.40 per bu. The seasonal average range for soybean prices was estimated at $7.25 to $8.25.

Has the crop been “made?” Extension’s Darrel Good says models relating trend yield and state average monthly precipitation and temperature to actual state average yields in IL, IN, and IA indicate that August weather has a significant impact on average yields. While August precipitation has less impact than July precipitation on average yields, August temperature appears to have an equal or larger impact than July temperatures.

How accurate are USDA’s estimates? IL Specialist Darrel Good says, “Over the past 11 good growing years, the average yield forecast in Aug. was below the Jan. estimate following harvest in 8 years. In those 8 years, the Jan. estimate exceeded the Aug. forecast by 5.8 bu., in a range of 1.7-11.5 bu. The Jan. estimate was below the Aug. forecast in 1999, 2000, and 2006, by 2.9 bu. and in a range of 0.9-4.8 bu.”

“5 or 10 percent of the soybean crop will not be harvested, or if it is harvested, yields will be very low,” said Ohio State agronomist Jim Beuerlein. He says 75% of the crop is fair condition or better and 25% in poor condition with the battle lost in NW Ohio.

28 ethanol plants operating and 20 more being planned have restructured the corn basis in Iowa says Iowa State’s Chad Hart. In NW Iowa he says the basis is usually 30-40¢, but currently is only 5¢. He says record production will soften the basis this fall.

Soybean pests: before you spray, ensure that you have the correct pest identification.
1) Aphid hotspots may have 1,000+ per plant, but look for natural predators also.
2) Whiteflies may have high numbers, but over time have caused minimal damage.
3) Spider mites can injure beans, but bean maturity may be beyond yield benefits.

Soybean diseases: several problems may be occurring that will cut bean yields.
1) SDS is just showing up, but the fungus arrived early in the season in wet soils.
2) Brown stem rot arrives early like SDS, but again, there is no in-season cure.
3) White mold can be controlled with resistant varieties and spray of Topsin M.

Soybean rust: Asian rust is making its way northward, so keep up to date.
1) Northeastern TX, and several counties in OK & AR have it for the first time.
2) The rust forecast says current weather conditions may carry spores into IL & IA.
3) Monitor the rust website, but yield loss is minimal when plants reach full seed.

Corn quirks have been appearing in a field near you. Production specialist Emerson Nafziger says there may not be an apparent problem, until you look at the ear. Some shoots have no ear, or only a remnant. Corn rows may have periodic problems, or entire rows full of undeveloped ears. He’s looking for a common cause, such as genetics or timing of pesticide application. Read more.

Continuous corn: is there a yield drag or not? Agronomists cite numbers about softer yields than a corn-bean rotation, however many farmers cite numbers counter to that research. Purdue agronomists are surveying 2,000 farmers with corn on corn to ask about weed control, tillage, pest management, drainage and other practices. Researchers believe their findings will help find the yields that are demanded from the biofuel market.

Cash rent levels in the past will not work in the future says former Purdue economist Howard Doster, who adds, “More tenants will lose their leases for ‘08 than at any time since the early seventies when crop prices also increased faster than non-land costs. Most of these turnovers could be avoided if only present tenants would do something nice for their owners.” He defines that as offering to pay more cash rent for 2007 and beyond.

A creative method for determining cash rent is using a flexible cash lease based on the GRIP insurance county yield, multiplied by the spring guaranteed base CRC price, and multiplied by a rent factor of 30-40% based on the productivity of the farm. IL farm economists Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz say the land owner picks up more risk in this concept when there are price changes between years, but the operator bears more risk if commodity prices have a larger change within the growing season. View examples.

If you are storing your own corn on the ground, you’ll have quite a few challenges that are addressed by a Purdue website designed to help farmers with temporary storage of grain. It has over 100 links to information sources about sanitation, loading, aeration and monitoring.

Wheat seeding is 4-6 weeks away, but selecting varieties should be an immediate priority. Many universities publish variety trials which give producers good input on agronomic traits, and yield data. Visit their joint website for multi-year information, along with pest, disease, and Hessian fly resistance.

A 10¢ hike in corn means a $1 drop in feeder calves according to Extension’s Dillon Feuz who analyzed 1991 to 2007 markets. He says, “Right now in the corn market there is equal money bet on DEC Corn prices being below $3.30 or above $4.00 per bushel this fall. That is a swing of $.70 per bushel which could swing calf prices $7 per cwt.”

The curiosity in the hog market is due to China says Glenn Grimes. “The futures market continues to have counter-seasonal price activity. The reason for the strong October and December contracts prices is the rumor that because of disease problems in China, they will be in the market for substantial quantities of pork this fall and winter.” OCT futures exceed AUG which Grimes said has happened only 8 times in 56 years.

A new manure handling concept is cheaper than hauling and has less odor than raw slurry application to fields. Researchers at the Univ. of IL and IL State have separated liquids and solids. The solids are composted to eliminate the odor. The liquid can be stored, then irrigated on nearby fields. The researchers say haulers typically charge 0.7¢ to 1.7¢ per gal. for hauling. Their cost is 0.9¢ for filtering and 0.1¢ for irrigating.

Biofuels will be a major focus of the IL Agronomy Day Aug. 16, where attendees will see how swine manure is converted to crude oil at 70% efficiency, with one pig yielding $10 worth of oil. Other topics include biodiesel, and producing cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and miscanthus. Details.

You’ll soon be paying more for diesel fuel, if you aren’t already. That’s the analysis of Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter looking at petroleum futures. Summertime has provided savings of more than 12% under year ago levels. Beginning with September prices will begin at 5% more than 2006, and become 20% higher than last year. He said diesel fuel costs should fade next spring and equal spring 2007 levels.

Dec. 31 is the deadline to use a voluntary conservation easement, earn a tax deduction, and protect your farm against urban sprawl. The land must be donated to a qualified land trust and that allows a qualified owner to deduct up to 100% of their income. For all landowners, the law tripled the carry-forward period for deductions from 5 to 15 years. Examples.

Weed scientists report higher levels of carbon dioxide in future years will have a significant impact on poison ivy, by promoting growth, increasing vigor, and increasing its toxicity. They also found higher levels of carbon dioxide will increase dandelion seed production by 32% and improve its ability to be carried by the wind longer distances.

Ozone may be your next bin fumigant. A Purdue researcher says pulling oxygen into a bin, introducing electricity, and recycling it throughout the bin will destroy insects without leaving a residue. It did not impact food quality, and is used in potato storage.