Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Soybean stocks may be large, but consumption is up from last year says Extension’s Darrel Good. Total crush is up3.8%, exports are 20% higher, and Good says overall consumption will be 3.051 bil. bu., with ending stocks at 591 mil. bu. Read more.

Darrel Good’s formula for estimating crop size is based on acreage in the good to excellent range, which currently points to a 42.2 bu. national average. He says the soybean rust in TX & AR should be controlled without hurting the Midwest crop.

Brazilian soybean farmers may not produce enough beans next year says Good, “The 2008 South American crop was projected at 4.3 bil. bu., only 75 mil. bu. larger than the 2007 harvest. Unless acreage in South America exceeds current projections, there may be a need to expand US acreage in 2008.” He says livestock and biodiesel demand, along with Chinese purchases will dictate soybean prices, which he says will remain extremely volatile. But he says basis levels will narrow as carryover works into the market.

If you have new beans to market, Darrel Good suggests storage as a primary option. “A strategy that involves storing as much of the crop as possible is encouraged by the current price structure particularly if on-farm storage is available. Hedging, or using hedged-to-arrive contracts, on a significant portion of that stored crop to capture basis gain appears warranted.” He says the market may have to buy more acres next year.

Add Arkansas to the list of states with Asian soybean rust. It has been found in the southwestern corner of the state bordering TX where northern counties have recorded confirmed findings also. Keep up to date with soybean rust.

Rust authority X.B. Yang at Iowa State says the rust outbreak in northern TX raises the possibility for rust spores to reach the Cornbelt. “Computer models suggest that soybean rust spores could be blown as far north as central IL in August in an effective concentration. It is likely that more soybean rust will be found north of TX in the western pathway of soybean rust during the remainder of the season.” He says weather models indicate a less than 40% chance for rust to reach IA in the next 30 days.

If spraying for Asian rust, yield loss from sprayer damage will occur in soybeans at this late date says MO engineer Bill Wiebold. “Yield loss of less than 1% would be expected if normal boom widths of 30 to 60 feet were used for spraying soybean plants at R2. Yield loss might approach 3% if damage occurs at R4.” Yield loss in damaged rows was 77 to 90%. Read his analysis.

Cooler temperatures in the northern part of the Cornbelt have allowed soybean aphid populations to increase to levels that warrant rescue treatments. IL Extension aphid experts say, “The economic threshold is 250 aphids per plant (field average) with 80% of the plants infested and the economic injury level (generally when the cost of control equals the cost of the yield loss) is slightly greater than 600 aphids per plant.”

If you have potential economic damage, WI Extension’s Eileen Cullen says, “Foliar sprays are most effective in reducing aphid numbers and minimizing resurgences when applied during the R2 (full bloom) to R4 (full pod) stages of soybean growth. Spraying at or beyond R6 (full seed) has not been shown to prevent yield loss.” She recommends examination of 20-30 plants over 80% of the field to make your spraying decisions.

You may have some waterhemp that is resistant to both glyphosate and PPO inhibitors. Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says there are increased reports of poor control. He’s also had several reports of giant ragweed and common lambsquarters populations that have not been controlled following single or multiple applications of glyphosate.

Has your scouting found corn with a second ear coming from the shank of the first ear? Crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger says any silks coming from the second ear will attract corn rootworm beetles. He’s also found fresh silks coming from ears with brown silks, but without a source of pollen, blank kernels will remain on those ears.

Soybean flowering and podset may be hurt if night temperatures remain in the 50 degree range. IL Extension’s Nafziger says lower temperatures limit podset and the crop will be better off with night temperatures in the mid to upper 60 degree range. Read his latest newsletter.

Spider mites usually attack drought stressed beans, but this is a different year for them. Marlin Rice at Iowa State reports spider mites in fields with adequate moisture and even an irrigated soybean field. Before spraying, you need to have live mites, which have caused stippling on leaves, and a forecast for dry or droughty conditions ahead.

Beef production is down 1%, but prices are up 9% in the first half of 2007 according to Purdue’s Chris Hurt. He says total supplies should be somewhat lower in the coming 12 months than the past 12, with first quarter 2008 prices $92-96, and second quarter higher. He’s expecting finished weights higher, more calves in feedlots, and heifers retained.

Livestock Gross Margin Insurance will be available in more states beginning July 30. Essentially, LGM for Swine provides insured producers an indemnity when the spread between the market hog selling price and corn and soybean meal input prices narrows due to changing market conditions. Eligible Cornbelt states include: IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, and WI. Read how it applies to your operation.