Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

If the US yield this year is near 150 bu., the 2007 harvested could total 12.8 bil. says Extension’s Darrel Good. “A yield of only 152.2 bu. would be required to produce a crop of 13 bil. bu. If the remainder of the 2007 growing season is favorable, the crop will be large enough to result in some build-up in inventories during the year ahead.”

Quarterly corn stocks were 3.534 bil. bu. says Good, because use is slowing and supplies are abundant. “Lower than expected corn prices, however, may lead to more consumption than previously forecast. It is significant that the corn market has moved from worrying about declining crop conditions to anticipating a surplus in a period of just two weeks.” Read more.

While US soybean inventories will be reduced dramatically during the year ahead, Good says rationing will not be required with trend or higher yields. “The most important segment of the growing season is just beginning so crop concerns will likely occur, with the focus now turning to a drier western Cornbelt. The market may offer producers very favorable pricing opportunities for old and new beans during the next several weeks.”

US soybean carryover stocks now appear likely to drop to around 200 mil. bu. by August 31, 2008 ,provided August weather permits near-normal yields, says Iowa State Outlook Specialist Bob Wisner. A one-bushel below normal US soybean yield would be likely to drop 2008 US carryover stocks to a very tight 2.4 weeks supply. In 2003-04 when low yields reduced stocks to about that level, soybean futures reached $9-10.

The market is buying bean acres for next year says Wisner. “With a 43 bu./A. average yield in 2008, approximately 7.4 mil. more soybean acres would be needed to maintain 2007-08 total utilization for another year. That is without allowing for any growth in crush or export demand in 2008-09. In other words, the normal increase in world demand for soybeans would need to be met by increased South American production.”

Wisner, at Iowa State, adds, “This year’s sharp increase in corn acreage, barring weather problems, should provide fully adequate corn supplies for feed, exports, ethanol, and other corn processing through August 2008. This picture suggests that corn futures prices have additional downward potential from late July or early August into September. However, the corn market will be sensitive to weather as well as wheat and bean prices.”

This fall the grain industry will be challenged with receiving, handling, and drying 19-24% more corn than last year, says Wisner. Storage space will be in tight supply, but tighter still in the next 2-4 years. The larger supplies create a potential for significant weakness in the harvest-time corn basis. After harvest, the grain trade and fund traders are likely to shift focus to prospects for tightening corn and soybean supplies in 2008-09.

Livestock producers should take advantage of the weakness in the corn market says Jim Mintert at Kansas State. He says since June 25th nearby futures have fallen 25% and new crop is down 22% However 2008 futures have only dropped 11%, which he says was due to the need to ensure there are enough corn acres planted next spring.

Wheat and corn prices have parted ways says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State. “Wheat seems to have stabilized for now at $6 per bu. Wheat price may slip a little as the Northern Great Plains and spring wheat harvests progress. However, any future harvest problems or with spring wheat production could send wheat price higher.”

The weather continues to challenge the wheat crop says Kansas State Extension’s Woolverton. “Unrelenting rain in TX, OK, and KS, and the Easter freeze and insect and disease damage, is resulting in harvest delays and low yields of low quality wheat and heavy dockage at elevators. Insurance adjusters are working over-time to allow producers to plant a second crop. In some areas, that will not be possible because of soggy fields. Many producers are worried about retaining seed wheat of such poor quality.”

If you are planting your own wheat seed, Missouri’s Laura Sweets urges caution:
1) Clean the grain, removing damaged seeds, raising the TKW above 30 grams.
2) Test the germination of 100 seeds to ensure at least 80% of them will grow.
3) Use the germ test to determine if the seedlings will need fungicide protection.
4) Seed from a field with loose smut will produce a greater amount of loose smut.
5) Use the germ test to determine the seedling susceptibility to fusarium head blight.

Yellow soybean mysteries may be attributed to SCN. IL Nematologist Terry Niblack says SCN populations are found both inside and outside the yellow soybean areas, but where soybeans were under drought stress, they were more susceptible to the SCN. Niblack says,” The plants will not recover in terms of yield, even if the symptoms abate.” Read more about the problem.

Yellow soybean mysteries may be attributed to stressful growth conditions preceding the last few weeks in which most soils were fairly dry and plants were not growing very fast. The developing root system is not yet able to meet the increasing nutrient demands, causing a likely temporary nutrient deficiency says Extension’s Fabian Fernandez.

Yellow soybean mysteries may be attributed to a reduction of nodulation and/or number of active nitrogen-fixing nodules which could have occurred. Because in most cropping systems soybeans depend on this symbiotic relationship to supply much of the needed nitrogen, it is likely that soybean plants are experiencing some reduction in the amount of available nitrogen. Read more.

Just because you planted a Bt rootworm hybrid or used a soil insecticide you may not have avoided rootworm injury. You may be surprised, say entomologists Mike Gray and Kevin Steffey. “Even though some Bt corn plants revealed no aboveground signs of stress, the roots revealed considerable pruning.” They are questioning traditional root ratings as a means of identifying whether rootworm insecticides and Bt treatments worked very well.

If your waterhemp is healthy despite glyphosate, you’ll have much more waterhemp next year unless you rescue your Roundup Ready soybeans. Extension Weed Specialist Aaron Hager has several ideas.
1) Treat again with glyphosate at the maximum rate with 17#/100 gal. of AMS.
2) They may be resistant, but try diphenyl ethers: Cobra (Phoenix), Flexstar and Blazer.
3) Tank mix glyphosate with a diphenyl ether, if one doesn’t work, the other might.

If rootworm and Japanese beetles are infesting your corn, make a careful decision on whether to spray say Purdue specialists. Your scouting may help save some money. Read more.
1) Pollen is the rootworm beetles’ favorite food
2) Japanese beetles prefer silks that are browning (completed)
3) Many times more than enough pollen is shed to fertilize ears and feed beetles
4) Japanese beetles tend to clump in a field, especially near the end rows
5) Silks a 1/2 inch or longer can successfully receive pollen
6) Silks can receive the pollen anywhere, not just the tip

The Senate biofuels mandate raises farm income, but not consumer prices, says Pat Westhoff of FAPRI at Missouri. By 2015, an additional 898 mil. bu. of corn, above baseline, would be required to meet ethanol requirements. That demand would boost corn prices by 20¢/bu., or 6.6%. Soybean prices also would increase, as acreage and production drops. That price increase would make soy biodiesel less competitive and production could fall slightly. Food expenditures may go up $3 per person per year.

Are you feeding DDGS? USDA’s recent crop report indicated nearly 40% of the 9,000+ dairy and feedlot operators surveyed reported using ethanol co-products during 2006, while just over 10% of cow-calf and hog producers reported using these products. Over half of the cow-calf and hog producers reported that they were unlikely to ever use DDGS, while only 40% and 30% of dairy and feedlot operators would not.

If you hire a consultant to help you with marketing, hire a mirror image of yourself says MN Extension Specialist Ed Usset. “Producers should select a marketing consultant with a similar mindset and approach to marketing as their own. If you are a relatively conservative marketer, then avoid a consultant who likes to re-buy and re-sell often. Find someone who can market your grain in a style that makes sense to you.”

A marketing consultant’s fees should be considered. Usset says the price used to compare to a baseline price should be net of transactions costs and marketing fees. Know if you receive $3.00 per bu. of corn before or after transactions costs and marketing fees. Depending on the advisor, transactions costs and marketing fees might be 5 cents or 35 cents per year (the active use of options can ring up a large bill quickly).”