Cornbelt weather is running from very wet to very dry, accompanied by wide ranging crop conditions, all in a year with very little room for slippage. Corn demand will draw down stocks severely, the soybean carryout will be cut in half, and demand will continue to increase. The latest crop condition reports indicate over three quarters of the corn and beans are in good to excellent condition, but is that a windshield estimate? It certainly is not a satellite view.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service today released the latest crop condition and soil moisture reports. You will be able to see the conditions in your part of the country are probably not the same as elsewhere, due to the great weather variability of 2007.

ILLINOIS: A majority of topsoil moisture is now in the short to very short category, with only 48% adequate and 1% surplus. Despite the shortage, the corn averages 26 inches, which is 8 inches more than last year. The chance of rain came and went for many areas across the state last week with only limited areas receiving any significant rainfall. The strong winds received on Thursday depleted topsoil moisture very rapidly. Topsoil moisture levels held fairly steady in northern Illinois which received the most rain but decreased greatly across the rest of the state. Last weeks heat and dry weather caused
corn leaves to roll in the heat of the day and is being credited with uneven emergence in many soybean fields. Soybean planting was virtually complete last week for all but the double crop beans. Farmers report that what remains of their wheat crop, after the Easter freeze, is maturing quickly due to the heat and dry conditions.

INDIANA: 66% of topsoil moisture is now short or very short, with 50% of subsoil moisture rated short or very short. The corn condition is 61% good to excellent, with 56% of the beans in the same shape. Another week of spotty rains has left topsoil moisture very short in many areas of the state. Soybeans have been slow to emerge in some fields due to lack of moisture. Corn fields are showing signs of stress in areas that have not received any of the recent precipitation.

IOWA: Topsoil moisture is 77% adequate and 16% surplus, with subsoil moisture rated 78% adequate, 20% surplus. Corn averages 14 inches, and 77% is in good to excellent condition. Beans are rated 78% good to excellent.

KANSAS: Topsoil moisture is 74% adequate and 9% surplus, with subsoil moisture 80% adequate and 11% surplus. 75% of the wheat has turned color, behind the 2006 and longer term averages. Forage is 74% adequate and stock water supplies are 82% adequate.

MICHIGAN: Topsoil is 71% adequate and 6% surplus, with subsoil 81% adequate and 4% surplus. Small grain crops are in the 60% range of good to excellent.
There was little rainfall seen across most of State. Variable weather conditions continued across the state. Most areas received rainfall, although precipitation amounts varied. Corn growth advanced with humid weather and the conditions varied but remained generally good. Soybean growth is slow.

MINNESOTA: Topsoil moisture is 88% adequate to surplus. Corn is 14 in. in height, above the 2006 and long term averages. Alfalfa crops are 67% good to excellent. Pastures are 69% good to excellent. Crop development continued ahead of the five year average. Areas in the northwest, west central parts of the state received an additional inch or more of rain which added to pockets of already surplus soil moisture.

MISSOURI: Topsoil moisture is 85% adequate to surplus. In general, corn, soybean condition is very good, although a few minor problems are appearing in different areas around the state. Uneven emergence was reported in the east-central district, while double-crop soybeans are struggling to emerge in dry Bootheel soils. Soybean planting, emergence are still well behind in the southwest district.

NEBRASKA: Topsoil moisture is 84% adequate to surplus, and subsoil moisture is 79% adequate. Corn condition is 86% good to excellent, and soybean conditions are 79% good to excellent. The wheat is 83% fair to good. Pasture and range conditions are 58% good, and 17% excellent.

NORTH DAKOTA: Topsoil moisture is 80% adequate, 20% surplus. Subsoil moisture is 79% adequate and 14% surplus. Durum wheat conditions 94% good to excellent. Spring wheat, barley, and canola crops are all ahead of long term averages. Spring planted row crops were delayed in planting because of wet weather but are generally progressing quite well. Hay conditions are 83% good to excellent. Stock water supplies are 97% adequate to surplus. Pasture and range conditions are 78% good to excellent. Rainfall occurred over most of the state last week, and warm, dry days are needed to dry out fields so that producers can finish their fieldwork activities.

OHIO: Topsoil moisture is 57% short to very short. Soybean emergence is above average, and wheat is turning earlier than usual. Corn is 68% good to excellent.
Hay condition is 73% fair to good. Pasture condition is 71% fair to good, and Soybean conditions are 80% fair to good. Most areas throughout the State need rain to replenish the topsoil moisture. Producers in the Southeast and Central districts report the beginning signs of drought dairy farmers are out of pasture, have begun feeding hay, silage to livestock, corn is showing drought stress, and milk production has dropped due to heat and loss of pasture.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Topsoil moisture is 96% adequate to surplus, and subsoil moisture is 88% adequate to surplus. The corn averages 9 inches, about the same as long term averages. Hay is rated 76% good to excellent, stock water supplies are 84% good to excellent. In a rare occurrence this week, the western part of the state received precipitation while the eastern part stayed mostly dry. The driest area is becoming more isolated to the extreme southwest corner of the state.

WISCONSIN: Topsoil moisture is 84% adequate to surplus. The average corn height is 11 inches, and 88% is in good to excellent condition. Beans are rated 83% good to excellent, and wheat is 82% good to excellent. Pasture conditions are 73% good to excellent. Rain continued to help corn progress as corn heights reached record levels.

While northern and western sections of the Cornbelt have had adequate amounts of precipitation and good growing conditions, the eastern part of the Cornbelt has been quite dry, as indicated by the state reports for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Their dryness is depicted in the vegetation health index released today by NOAA.

Summary:
The eastern part of the Cornbelt has suffered from lack of rainfall in the past month, despite reports of corn crop conditions that are in the high 60% and low 70% range for good to excellent. However, the lack of rain has shown up in soil moisture conditions, and a satellite that depicts the health of the vegetation covering the eastern Cornbelt.