Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators. (Revised edition)

Soybean prices have declined since the bullish acreage report, but IL Extension’s Darrel Good says there are two reasons, “These are the decline in the rate of consumption of US soybeans and the much larger soybean production estimates for South America. Domestic use is expected to be negatively impacted by declining livestock feeding margins, while exports will face competition from increased supplies from South America.”

Darrel Good says USDA now projects the South American crop at 4.135 bil. bu., 150 mil. larger than the March forecast and 310 mil. larger than the 2006 record. Production in Brazil is expected to be up almost 11% even though area harvested is down 5.5%. The Argentine crop is expected to be 17% larger, with harvested area up only 4%. That crop will result in much smaller exports of US soybeans through at least September 2007.

Even with the recent decline in prices, Good says, “Soybean prices remain about $1.50 above the level that would have historically been expected by the size of the current surplus. The price strength is coming primarily from soybean oil prices. General strength in vegetable oil prices, particularly palm oil, due to expanding world biodiesel production, along with high crude oil prices account for the strength in soy oil prices.”

If the bean crop lives up to its potential, Outlook Specialist Darrel Good says some further weakness in soybean prices can eventually be expected, particularly in prices for the 2007 crop. November 2007 futures may have risk down to near the $7.20 area.

Iowa State’s Bob Wisner says, “Next week’s crop progress report will be especially important for the corn market. For the last three years, respectively, 18-state corn percentages planted for the comparable week were 25%, 30%, and 37% respectively. With wet fields in many areas and minimal spring fieldwork in the Midwest so far this year, it looks unlikely that progress will be close to these levels by next Monday.”

Wisner thinks only 88 mil. acres of corn will be planted. He says, “If planted and harvested with good yields, it could raise our projected 2008 corn carryover stocks by 200 to 250 mil. bu. or more. That prospect, if it occurs, would add significantly to the down-side price risk for old and new-crop corn, but might add slight upside potential for soybean prices for a few weeks. Excellent weather across the Cornbelt in the next three weeks and rapid planting progress could shift trade expectations toward those prospects.

If the calendar concerns you, IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says the highest yield was produced in the last week of April. Corn loses yield at about 1 bushel per day from May 1 to 10, 2 bushels per day from May 10 to 20, and almost 3 bushels per day during the last third of May. With some cooperation from the weather, you’ll make it fine.

Iowa agronomists last week said 4 extra days would be needed to plant Iowa’s extra corn acres. Emerson Nafziger says, “We have planted at more than 5% per day over some 10-day periods in several recent years, and if every field in IL were fit to plant at the same time, we likely could plant at least 75% of the corn crop in a week. He says, “The median number of days IL producers need to plant their entire corn crop is about 5. This might be higher by half a day or so this year because of increased corn acreage.”

If you are uncertain about replanting wheat, you are not alone. Crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger says the persistent cool temperatures have kept wheat recovery very slow, and it is difficult to evaluate whether the wheat will be able to make any kind of an acceptable yield. Read his analysis.

Crop insurance adjusters need to know your plans for any frozen and failed wheat crop, before you replant to another crop or convert to livestock forage. But IL Extension’s Justin Sexten says there are serious concerns that need to be addressed before feeding it:
1) Herbicides used for wheat may not permit grazing of wheat forage prior to maturity.
2) Consider nitrate toxicity as a livestock-related problem with frost-damaged wheat.
3) Producers should have the state laboratory test forages to determine nitrate levels.
4) Harvesting damaged forage as silage or balage is the best option.

If replacing failed wheat with corn, your corn will be covered by crop insurance if you have a corn policy. If your wheat was insured, an adjustor may want test strips left to ascertain lost yield, unless you have GRP or GRIP. For the new crop you can either forego insurance or insure the new crop, but you won’t get a 100% payment on both.

The failed wheat issue this year is a challenge for crop insurance and could result in some policy setting, particularly for GRP and GRIP. IL Extension’s Gary Schnitkey says since the group policies will not require test strips to establish yields, the calculation will be the county average. However, as more fields that are destroyed, the county average falls, but increases the likelihood and expected amount of GRP and GRIP payments.

One of your big replant decisions may be on the availability of seed corn and nitrogen. IL Extension’s Nafziger says the choice of corn hybrids and even companies was already a problem due to the large acreage increase, and the supply will be stretched more thin if many former wheat acres are planted to corn. He says nitrogen will also be in short supply in some areas, but any nitrogen applied to the wheat can become a credit for corn.

A failed wheat field, destined for corn, may also be destined for wireworm damage says Extension entomologist Mike Gray. Even if you use a Bt seedcorn, Gray says the toxin may be insufficient to control wireworm and a full spectrum of control will be needed in heavy populations. Find help.