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April 13, 2007
Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
USDA’s Supply Demand report this week eased the pressure on the corn market with a slowdown of feed use, and a125 mil bu. increase to the carryout when the marketing year ends. USDA also cut the season average price by 20¢ to a range of $3.00 to $3.20.
The continued prospect of planting delay is a growing concern to Outlook Specialist Mike Woolverton at Kansas State, “Since the freeze, corn price has moved sideways as traders await more news on the health of the crop. Planting delays have yet to be factored into corn price, although April is ticking away and many Corn Belt producers are saying it will be at least the first week in May before they can plant if no more rain falls.”
With some Iowa cornfields-to-be encased in snow, yield potential will soon begin to fall. Iowa State specialists report the 2006 planting rate was 315,000 acres per day, and the extra 1.3 mil. acres planned in Iowa this year will take 4 more days to plant, “Four days does not sound like much of an addition, given normal weather in the spring. Yet this year, it appears that the best we might expect to start planting is during the week of 23 April; a week later than last year. If producers keep the same planting pace as in 2006, we could expect planting to be finished during the first week of June.”
Corn growers who are among the few with fields planted, need to cross their fingers says Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger. “Wet soils and soil temperatures in the 30s are very hard on corn seed and seedlings. Even the "stress" cold test is conducted at 50 degrees, so it probably does little to predict seed's ability to emerge when temperatures are 40 or less. While we are confident that corn seed can lie in cold soil for several weeks without great harm if the soil is dry, we have no such confidence when the soil is wet.”
Corn needs about 110 growing degree days in air temperature after planting to emerge, says IL Extension’s Nafziger, “Not having seed planted during the kind of weather we are experiencing is no disadvantage, when the prospects for planted seed are so dim and when plants in the field are not able to grow anyway.” But look at your planting date:
1) Corn planted by March 25 might have emerged, but was seriously damaged.
2) Corn planted after March 26 has probably not emerged, but may not be safe.
3) Corn planted by April 1 is unlikely to emerge much before April 25, if it warms up.
Missouri went from record warmth to record cold according to University of Missouri climatologist Pat Guinan, “The two-week period from March 21 through April 3 was the warmest for those 14 days in 118 years. Temperatures across Missouri were 14 to 16 degrees above normal.” Due to an artic cold front April 3, the next six days were the coldest Guinan can find in the record books during those 118 years. "So in three weeks we go from a very unusual mild period to an unprecedented cold period.”
The wheat crop continues to decline in quality, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State, “Two nights of temperatures in the high teens and low twenties caused light to severe damage to wheat across the area. The extent of immediate damage will remain in doubt for a few more days, although, in anticipation, the Kansas Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service dropped the Kansas wheat condition rating from 77% good or excellent to 56% good or excellent following the freeze events. The full extent of freeze damage will not be known until the wheat is harvested.”
Wheat producers detecting a silage-like smell and with darkened leaf tissue, should understand the cold-damaged crop is basically dead, though some tissue at the base of the plant is still alive. IL Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says some of this living tissue is likely to be small tillers that had stopped developing at the base of the plant. These might start to grow as the competition from the larger stems decreases, but they would be starting very late, flowering very late, filling very late, and ready only for a late harvest.
If you have given up on wheat and plan to destroy the crop then plant row crops, IL Extension has some good tips .
1) Ensure there are no herbicide conflicts between your wheat and new crop chemical.
2) Give your burndown chemical 3-5 days to work before any tillage operation.
3) Without a tillage program, let the burndown benefit from warmer temperatures.
4) Use a broad-spectrum herbicide that will control both grasses and broadleaves.
5) It is easier to control wheat plants now, than after newly-planted corn emerges.
Alfalfa producers should closely evaluate their crop following the cold weather. IL Extension’s Jim Morrison says wait 7 days to see if the cold caused any permanent damage. Split the taproot and crown, and observe any new shoot regrowth and the condition of the taproot. Healthy taproots and crowns are creamy white and firm, while freeze-damaged ones will be watery, brown, and soft in the upper 1 to 2 inches of the taproot. There is no toxin produced in alfalfa as a result of a frost or freeze, but the bloat potential is increased substantially. If alfalfa is being grazed, allow the frosted plants to dry, then implement normal bloat preventative measures. Harvesting stresses the plant.
The soybean market got a bearish report from USDA this week when the crush was lowered 15 mil. bu. along with a 20 mil. bu. reduction in soybean exports. Stocks were raised 20 mil. bu. to an all time record high 615 mil. bu. With the help of 2.16 bil. bu. in Brazil and 1.67 bil. bu. in Argentina, global oilseed ending stocks were raised by 125 mil. bu. to reflect the increased Southern Hemisphere production. USDA left the projected US season average farm price for soybeans unchanged at $6.10 to $6.50 per bushel.
Surprise, but soil temperature is not a determinant of good soybean yields. Iowa State’s Palle Pedersen says, “The new recommendations are based on three variables and probably the biggest change is that it does not take soil temperature into consideration. Soybean planting date is now based on calendar date of April 25 for the southern two-thirds of Iowa and May 1 for the northern one-third of Iowa, along with seedbed conditions, and the weather forecast for the next couple of days after planting.
Soybean producers have a new weapon against Asian rust, following EPA action to authorize several new fungicides. Domark from Valent has been given a full registration. Additionally, 12 others have been given emergency registration for use in 2007.
Hog production will expand for the 8th consecutive year says Purdue’s Chris Hurt. Live prices will be near $48, about 70¢ above 2006. But he says production costs that were $40.40 last year, will be closer to $47.50 this year, with the bottom line determined by the price of corn. Hurt urged producers to hedge both corn and hogs to lock in profits.
Hurt says the pork industry must contract, “Pork producers will need to cut production and reduce the total supply of pork available. Once these cuts are made, retail and farm level pork and hog prices will recover and the higher feed costs will be transferred to consumers. Since pork demand is growing modestly, keeping pork production constant for a period of time will also encourage retail and farm prices to rise.” Read more.
Gauge DDGS costs against corn and bean meal says IL Extension Swine Specialist Hans Stein. “With constant costs of soybean meal, the maximum price that can be paid for DDGS increases approximately $9-$10 for each 50 cents per bushel the cost of corn is increased. Likewise, if the price of soybean meal is increased by $25 per ton, then the price of DDGS can be increased by $11-$12 without increasing diet costs.”
Stein says many producers feed 20% DDGS in diets for all categories of swine. It is possible that up to 35% DDGS can be included in diets fed to nursery pigs and growing finishing pigs. "However, because of the risk of producing pork with soft bellies, the inclusion of DDGS in finishing diets should be limited to 20% until more research has been conducted to investigate the effects of higher inclusion rates on belly firmness."
Costs were up again in 2006 for producing corn and soybeans in IL, according to an analysis of 1,500 farm records. Per acre costs were about $500 for good soils in northern and central IL and $472-$448 for lighter soils in central and southern IL. It cost $387-$341 to raise soybeans. Read the details.
April brought cold weather, but it also brought black cutworm moths which are laying eggs throughout the state. Entomologists are looking for May 14 to be a target date for significant larvae activity in young cornfields, but they also say it is too early to predict the significance of a threat.
When planting beans, do your self a favor and avoid soybean diseases if possible. Iowa State plant pathologist X. B. Yang offers some planting strategies to avoid early and mid-season soybean diseases:
1) There is a higher risk of SDS & seedling blight if planted early in cool, wet soils.
2) Infections by rhizoctonia and phytohphera are enhanced by warm soil temperatures.
3) Bacterial blight, brown spots, and stem canker are not affected by planting dates.
Posted by Stu Ellis at April 13, 2007 1:49 AM | Permalink
Comments
Shouldn't "soft belly" be a positive marketing angle? As fat becomes softer isn't it more unsaturated; thus healthier? If the problem is cutting the bacon shouldn't chilling it prior to cutting solve the problem? (The marketing angle of a "Healthy Bacon" (that might be an oxymoron) should more than offset the chilling cost.)
Ethanol is causing changes. With changes come opportunities. Let's find solutions not problems.
Researchers like facts. Marketers like possibilities. Maybe it is time for the marketers to visit the lab.
Posted by: Polyanna at April 13, 2007 9:44 AM