Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Plans for a large decline in soybean acreage and a large increase in corn acreage is expected to be revealed in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report to be released on Mar. 30 says IL Extension’s Darrel Good. “If planned acreage of either crop is judged to be too small or too large, the market will have 3 to 4 weeks to try to alter production plans.” Read more.

Darrel Good says last year “The March report revealed intentions to increase soybean acreage by 4.863 mil. and to reduce corn by 3.76 mil. acres. The market judged that to be too large a shift so that prices adjusted. However, the price adjustment was not large enough and did not persist long enough. Soybean planting increased by 3.49 mil. acres and corn plantings declined by 3.452 mil. acres in 2006. If a significant change from intentions is judged to be needed this year, price changes will have to be more decisive.”

If you have 2006 unpriced corn in storage, Extension Specialist Jim Hilker at Michigan State wants you to consider putting a cheap out of the money put under it for 5-16¢/bu. depending on the level of protection you want. He says the market could drop like a rock if the Prospective Planting Report shows 12-13 mil. more acres of corn could be planted. Read Hilker’s analysis.

The late February highs in the corn market will not be exceeded before the Mar. 30 report says Purdue’s Chris Hurt, and he suggests marketing some old and new crop before then. “When ready to price old-crop, be sure to ask about bids for June or July delivery. At some locations, those bids are sufficient to cover storage costs. This is especially true at locations that have an ethanol plant starting in production this spring.” Read more.

The soybean basis will remain depressed, says Chris Hurt, who believes 2006 beans will remain in storage as the new crop is harvested. “This means that new crop prices will have to be higher than August soybean prices. In addition, there are not likely to be any premiums for early delivery soybeans as their will be for corn. Old-crop pricing should be advanced in the next 60 days during the traditional spring pricing window. This is a period to consider pricing 25%-35% of anticipated new crop production.”

Corn planting has started in LA and MS with large shifts from cotton to corn, says Extension’s Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. He says, “Some corn is being planted on rice acres, but it appears that soybean acreage will be the same or increase. High fertilizer prices are not deterring producers from planting corn. Extension specialists are cautioning producers to take care in planting corn because they may not be able to get re-plant seed.”

If a La Nina weather pattern forms, Iowa State’s Elwynn Taylor says yield prospects change. “Under La Nina conditions temperatures tend to be more extreme than usual (increased frost and drought risk). Should La Nina establish before mid-May the risk of severe drought goes from 25% up to 33%; with a 70% chance that the national yield will be below the 148.4 bu/A trend. As of today the chance of an above trend yield is 53%.”

Related to that, Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton says, “The markets will be extra sensitive to weather events during the planting and growth phases this year. Given a warm, dry spring, farmers will plant corn until they run out of seed. That would dampen corn price, but send soybean prices higher. Cold and muddy conditions at planting time could have the opposite effect as farmers plant what corn they can before filling their planters with soybean seed. July, as always, will be a critical month for corn production, and some weather forecasters are predicting hot, dry conditions for the Midwest.”

Woolverton says wheat farmers are comparing wheat and corn prices. “What looks like the best Great Plains wheat crop in years and expanded winter wheat planting around the world in the Northern Hemisphere has put downward pressure on wheat price since the first of the year. Price has been see-sawing sideways recently based on the suspicion that many spring wheat acres will be planted to corn instead and some fall planted wheat may still be shifted to row crops if wheat price moves any lower.” Read his latest newsletter.

How thick will you plant beans? The bigger the plant the fewer we need, and that rule also works for plant size within soybeans. Ohio State’s rule-of-thumb is: best yields are produced with about 100,000 plants 40 inches tall, or about 130,000 plants 30 inches tall, or about 170,000 plants that are 20 inches tall. The typical seeding rates needed to produce those populations are 125,000, 175,000 and 235,000 respectively. Adjust rates up and down, depending on fertility, moisture and tilth. Read more.

If you grow continuous beans, because of poor corn yields, improve your management:
1) Rotate soybean varieties yearly to mitigate disease and SCN-related issues.
2) Rotate your herbicides to avoid the potential for glyphosate resistant weeds.
3) Select varieties based on yield potential, maturity and disease and nematode history.
4) Diversify the soybean genetic pool and plant different maturity groups to ease harvest.

Without SCN, there would have been 123 mil. bu. more soybeans last year, says Allen Wrather at the Univ. of MO. We may not have needed the soybeans, but farmers could have used the $806 mil. lost to SCN. Wrather says March is a great time to collect soil samples for SCN analysis, so farmers can make SCN management plans if necessary. He says the extent of SCN presence determines the number of years to grow alternate crops.

Does your hybrid produce more or less ethanol? Research at the Univ. of KY is just starting, but researchers say as the kernel starch content increased from 70% to 73.5%, the ethanol yield per bushel rose from 2.65 gal. to 2.80 gal. A 190 bu. yield produced over 500 gal. per acre, compared to under 400 gal. per acre for a 140 bu. corn yield.

Missouri economists say ethanol will be worth $1.17 bil to the state’s economy when production reaches 500 mil. gal. in 2008. They said, “That level of production also will support more than 7,700 jobs across the state, generate more than $110 million in taxes, and produce 1.42 mil. tons of distillers grain that could feed more than 1 mil. beef cattle.”

DDGS will become cheaper, says Purdue’s Brian Richert, as more ethanol is produced. “Some estimates show that by the end of 2007, the United States will be producing 10.67 bil. gal. of ethanol leaving 66.7 bil. lbs of DDGS on the market. This increase in ethanol production will possibly make DDGS an affordable and attractive option, especially to beef and dairy producers. One option is to sell the corn and buy back DDGS to use in ration formulations and diet feeds; and also share a load with neighbors to ease handling.

Eastern Cornbelt cattle feeders are more profitable according to Ohio State’s Dan Frobose, who compared cattle market prices and corn market prices during February:
1) A 650 lb. KS steer calf sold for $100.78/cwt, but only $91.78/cwt in Ohio.
2) A KS market steer brought $139.69/cwt, but an Ohio steer brought $148/cwt.
3) Iowa corn on February 27th was $3.78/bu, in Ohio it was $3.98/bu, a 20¢ spread.
4) Even with $13/head more in corn costs, the Eastern feeder netted $108/head more.

Think again, if you thought the cold spell killed insects. Missouri Extension’s Chris Starbuck says, “Springtails can quickly empty their gut systems to avoid freezing injury. Some insect species accumulate antifreeze compounds in their bodies like glycerol, manitol or ethylene glycol. Other species lower the freezing point of water in their cells by producing thermal hysterisis proteins. Still other species can move water into extra cellular spaces where it freezes without causing harm.” Eggs are least affected by cold.

No-tillers wanting the benefits of tillage, if you are planting corn after corn, should consider Purdue’s suggestion of strip-tilling to avoid a 15% no-till yield penalty.
1) Plant 5 in. from the old corn row for uniform depth and seed-soil contact.
2) Run shallow strip tillage in the spring to avoid working wet soil.
3) Avoid strip tillage uphill and downhill on slopes greater than 3 percent.
4) Or use a fluffing harrow to till 1-2 in. deep and mix a little soil with crop residue.

The US House Transportation Committee approved the WRDA bill which authorizes the Corps of Engineers to construct 7 new 1,200 ft. locks on the Upper Mississippi River System and create a major ecosystem restoration program. The $3.6 bil. project was close to approval in the last Congress and is expected to see full consideration soon.

In other Congressional news: 1) $3.7 bil. in general ag disaster aid was approved by the House Appropriations Committee and attached it to an Iraq war funding bill. 2) Senate Budget Chair Conrad said the 2007 Farm Bill will be funded $15 bil. more than the Cong. Budget Office wants, but $5 bil. under that sought by the Sen Ag Comte. 3) Sen. Harkin has called for a national ethanol pipeline network built on Interstate ROW.

Most importantly, those of us who eat salute those of you who produce our food, as this nation observes National Agriculture Day on March 21. We humbly express our thanks.