Exports have contributed to strong corn prices says IL Extension’s Darrel Good, in his marketing letter.
1) Mexican purchases so far of 255 mil. bu. are 50% more than this time last year.
2) Chinese corn exports have been relatively small, giving the US a larger market share.
3) The Argentine crop was small in early 2006, giving more export business to the US.
4) The small world wheat crop in 2006 will push more feed demand to US corn.
5) World corn consumption is expected to reach a record level of 28.7 bil. bu.

However, Darrel Good says, “Demand for US corn may weaken. The rebound in Argentine corn production suggests increased competition for US corn. Record production in Brazil this year may also result in another 30-40 mil. bu. of exports from that country. Finally, a significant rebound in world wheat production could soften the demand for US corn. The wild card will be the magnitude of Chinese corn exports.”

With good planting conditions, Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton looks for corn prices to fade because many ethanol plants and overseas buyers have covered needs until fall. “It is rumored that second-crop corn will be planted in Brazil following the soybean harvest just now getting underway. Nevertheless, low world coarse grain stocks may cause corn price to spike upward in the summer months as we near the end of the old crop marketing year.” More.

Soybean rust had been reported in FL, GA, and AL in early Jan., indicating that its kudzu host survived at least one cold front that pushed deep into the South in late Dec. However, the recent cold front made its way to these southern states and has killed back kudzu to near Gainesville, FL, with temperatures into the low 20’s across the South.

Valuable lessons were learned by researchers from the late Aug. surge north by Asian rust spores. Iowa St. says experts collected valuable data for predicting movement, and identifying low levels of rust with early detection to give soybean growers early warning.

Why have rust spores been found in the Midwest without affecting crops? Researchers
have several answers.
1) Spores can survive only 2 days of solar radiation, and need clouds for a longer life.
2) Spore survival is 95% in a shaded environment, but only 25% without shade.
3) Spores are found first on lower soybean leaves, indicating less survival on top leaves.
4) Rainy days are more associated with outbreaks of Asian rust, since it is cloudier.

Friday’s USDA Cattle On Feed Report was bullish for the beef market. The number on feed February 1 was down 3.2% from the same period in 2006. Feedlot placements during January were down 23.1% and fed marketings were up 1.7% from 2006.

Higher feed costs and harsh winter conditions have pushed total cost of gain to around $75 per cwt, says Extension beef specialist Dillon Feuz of Utah State. “Many of the cattle that have been marketed in 2007 were placed on feed before feeder cattle prices declined sharply this past fall. However, as we move forward an increasing number of fed cattle marketed will have been placed on feed at relatively lower feeder cattle prices.”

Feedlot losses should slow in the second quarter of the year, says Utah’s Dillon Feuz who believes breakeven costs should be matched by live cattle futures. He believes returns should be only $5-10 per head, and cattle feeders should be hedging feed costs.

Hog markets are better than expected says NE Extension’s Allen Prosch, because an expected increase in slaughter rates has not occurred. The better prices may be allowing producers to hold their own against high corn prices. He says producers needing to buy corn could anticipate lower prices when the USDA releases its planting intentions report on March 30. Prosch says it is a two edged sword, and if corn prices drop from a large expected acreage report, that means soybean prices will rise from reduced acres.

Hog marketing data collected by MO Extension’s Glenn Grimes indicates corn prices are controlling marketing decisions. He says, “Average live weights for barrows and gilts last week at 267.2 lbs. per head was up 0.4 lb. from a week earlier, but down 3.4 lbs. from a year earlier. This was the 21st consecutive week with weights below a year earlier. The average weight decline for the last 7 weeks is slightly over 3 lbs. per head.”

Lowering the thermostat in your pig nursery not only saves money, but increases rate of growth. Univ. of MO researchers cut night time temps by 10 degrees, and compared to a control group, the cooler pigs had a 5% increase in daily weight gain, while energy costs were reduced by 25%. It was attributed to increased intake, rather than feed efficiency.

Manage your weeds in continuous corn with the help of soil applied herbicides. Iowa State’s Mike Owen says, “Unless you can be assured that the post-emergent herbicide will be applied by the V3 stage of corn development, you will likely lose enough yield to pay for an early pre-plant or pre-emergent herbicide treatment. Thus, there is still an important role for soil-applied herbicides in continuous corn weed management.” Read more.

The “soybean credit” disappears when calculating nitrogen needs for continuous corn. Iowa State agronomist John Sawyer says with current nitrogen and corn prices, the recommended nitrogen application for continuous corn is in a range of 155-195 lb N/acre. Sawyer says that is the maximum economic return to nitrogen rate. Sawyer provides more guidance for N.

The time is now to rejuvenate your pastures with “frost seeding.” Overseed legume or grass now and late winter thaw/freeze cycles will improve seed-soil contact and the seedlings will get a start before the spring green-up in the rest of the pasture. Nitrogen application will spur that green-up, but neutralize your overseeding efforts. Seed red clover at 4-8 lbs/A or ladino clover at 2-3 lbs/A; or use half rates of each for a mixture.

How did your finances come out this year? Ohio Extension farm business staff says a farm with 1.6 operators, and a $419,475 value of farm production, reported $71,283 in net farm income and $25,000 in non-farm income. Since it takes $50,000 in living costs for an average farm family, it would take $300,000 in gross revenue to generate that $50,000. Once that happens, it only leaves $25,000 for debt payments and investment.

You probably already knew that rural communities are better prepared to respond to disasters. They have more than their share and Univ. of IL researchers found “Rural communities have a tradition of being more self-reliant, but they are also closer to the physical environment and more isolated, making them uniquely vulnerable.”

“Farm families have to keep going," says rural sociologist Courtney Flint. "They may have livestock. They can't wait for someone to flip the switch. They are more prepared for disaster. They have generators, kerosene heaters, snow plows and other equipment." Researcher said in urban areas, neighbors just don’t talk to each as much as rural folks.

Farmers in 4 Midwestern states have access to an Internet website to attract consumers to their specialty food products and services, and consumers can use the same website to find whatever they want. Currently the website utilizes databases of farm products in IL, IA, NE, & KY. MI, IN, & NY will soon be on-line.

Results of a National Animal ID survey from 476 IL livestock producers indicated: 336 had adequate information about the program; only 179 had voluntarily registered and 176 said they would register only if it becomes mandatory. 142 thought premises registration should be mandatory; and134 thought animal registration should be mandatory.

Soybean aphids will be the topic for a Cornbelt-wide seminar Mar. 6 which you can either attend at your local Extension office or from your office via the Internet. Specialists will discuss biological controls and management guidelines. Register for the 8:30 a.m. program.

Regardless of the form of nitrogen, delay its application to wheat until after green-up, but before stem elongation. OH Extension says N application too early will result in a loss of the fertilizer and a 19% less yield than if the application were delayed until later.

One new ethanol plant comes on line each week, and Kansas State’s Mike Woolverton says that will continue for the next 18 months, not counting the 300 announced plants that are still on the drawing board. He’s concerned about an ethanol bubble that will burst the corn market, based on the fact there will be more ethanol than the federal mandate, and it will begin replacing gasoline, but will have to compete economically, dropping ethanol to the $1.10 per gal. range, and forcing a collapse of the ethanol industry and corn markets.