Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Heading into kernel and pod fill, Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says weather and crop conditions will dominate the market for the next 6-8 weeks. “The Aug. yield forecasts will provide the benchmark for the market to judge the potential impact of Aug. weather on final yield estimates. Recent high temperatures and prospects for another round of heat in the second week of Aug. will stress crops in areas of low soil moisture. Read his newsletter.

Darrel Good says Dec 2006 corn futures reached a contract high of $2.88 in late May and traded down to $2.52 last week. November 2006 soybean futures traded to $6.40 in early July and down to $5.92 last week. Prices of both contracts may continue to recover from the lows of last week under the influence of a high rate of consumption and uncertainty about crop size. A surprise in the Aug. 11 reports or a significant decline in crop conditions may be needed, however, for prices to trade above the recent highs.”

Next Friday USDA’s August 1 crop report will be released. Private forecasters are already making their predictions. FC Stone puts corn at 151 bu/acre nationwide, compare to the 149 trend line yield. Production was pegged at 10.887 bil. The IL guess was 173 bu. for corn and 41.3 bu. for beans with national bean production forecast at 3.056 bil.

In addition to forecasting crop yields, USDA may also be adjusting it supply/demand balance sheets for corn and soybeans. Darrel Good believes heavier than expected corn use will be revealed, subsequently reducing the corn carryover at the end of the month.

Agreeing with Good, Bob Wisner at Iowa State says, “A yield forecast below 146 bushels per acre would likely strengthen prices some and make the market quite volatile in late August and September. With a 34% increase projected in corn processing for ethanol and large livestock numbers, domestic demand prospects look quite positive for the year ahead.” And he also warns of significant deterioration in the Western Cornbelt. Read his newsletter.

Calculate your “relative yield,” which equals a year’s actual yield divided by the average of the previous four-years of yields, times 100. It doesn’t reveal your wife’s birthday, but will provide guidance in selecting coverage levels for crop insurance. Ag economist Gary Schnitkey says IL relative yields have averaged 104% over past 28 years.

Higher relative yields result from better genetics and farming practices since there have been fewer severe losses in recent years. Schnitkey says weather conditions that resulted in low yields in 1983 and 1988 have not occurred since 1988. Read his newsletter.

As expected, untreated U of IL test plots showed “severe” damage from corn rootworms. Researchers also say, “We observed differences in rootworm larval damage among treatments, which included granular and liquid soil insecticides, seed-applied insecticides, and transgenic Bt hybrids (Herculex RW and YieldGard Rootworm). Results will be released after participating companies have had a chance to view the research findings.

Soybean aphids apparently are hiding out there, but certainly not in very large numbers. U of IL entomologists have found them in all fields they have visited in the northern quarter of the state, but say densities are all below the 200 aphids per plant threshold. Experts doubt soybean aphids will be a problem because of the late stage of the soybean crop, but urge you to continue scouting because populations can skyrocket quickly.

You also have several more crop scouting assignments, because of late season bugs:
1) Soybean pods are being eaten by bean leaf beetles, grasshoppers, and stink bugs.
2) Pockets of corn borer injury mean you may have 2nd generation ECB problems.
3) Western bean cutworms are spreading. Spray threshold is 8% of plants with eggs.

Stalk strength is being tested from potent summer storms. If Mother Nature suddenly converted your cornfield from a grain crop to a silage crop, ensure proper moisture levels of 62 to 70% can be maintained if you plan to feed it as green chop, or it will be poorly fermented, unpalatable, and moldy. Extension’s Dave Fischer recommends a sample be tested by a forage testing lab for moisture and dry matter analysis before you store it.

Lesser wind damage will have a variety of impacts on corn, says Extension’s Emerson Nafziger, “Breakage at a stalk node is generally much more serious than "kinking" at an internode, but both reduce the ability of the stalk to transport water and nutrients. Regardless of whether the stem is intact or broken, lodged corn plants cannot intercept normal amounts of sunlight, and yield reductions of at least 15 to 25 percent should be expected for corn that lodged at kernel growth stages R2 (blister) or R3 (milk).”

The current beef expansion cycle is rather unusual, says John Lawrence at Iowa State, “Beef demand is increasing after declining from 1980 to a low in 1998. The previous cycle was increasing supply in the face of weaker demand, but this time demand is increasing as supplies increase. While beef and cattle prices are still expected to decline, the pace of decline may be slower and the low prices not as low as the previous cycle.”

With beef exports resuming, USDA has tested 769,073 cattle finding 2 confirmed BSE cases. Testing 268,500 animals can detect BSE at a rate of 1 in 10 million adult cattle at a 99% confidence level. USDA will soon downshift, and sample 40,000 head yearly.

It won’t improve your management, or make you money, but after all it is a significant agricultural commodity. In the August heat, explore the different flavors, and how to make ice cream.