USDA’s S&D report today said corn exports are down 100 mil. bu. from Nov. due primarily to increased corn exports by China and Ukraine. As a result of the export competition, corn ending stocks are up 100 mil. bu. to 2.418 bil., 307 mil. higher than 2004. The projected 2005/06 price range for corn is unchanged, $1.60 to $2.00 per bu.

USDA also reduced soybean exports by 55 mil. bu. to 1.02 bil. bu. as competition from So. American soybean exports limits US trade to EU and China. US export commitments through early Dec. are at the lowest level since 1998. Ending stocks were increased to 405 mil. bu. USDA refined season average soybean price at $5.00 to $5.70.

Disappointment is the best word to describe corn exports so far this year. Extension Specialist Darrel Good says considering all current information, corn exports during the first quarter of the 2005-06 marketing year (Sept through Nov) likely totaled about 485 mil. bu., just slightly less than during the first quarter last year. He says to reach USDA’s 2 bil. bu. projection, exports in the next 9 months will have to be 15% better than 2004.

However, soybean exports in the first quarter of the 2004-05 marketing year were huge, at about 406 mil. bu. Darrel Good says to reach the USDA' s projection of 1.075 bil. bu. for the year, exports during the last three quarters of the current year need to total 745 mil. bu. But total export commitments to the European Union and China, the two largest buyers of US soybeans, are running 41% behind the pace of a year earlier.

IL corn acreage is increasing and since 1998 when it equaled beans, 2005 saw 1.27 acres of corn for each acre of beans. Your trend to more corn after corn may halt in 2006 with higher costs for corn production says Extension Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey. Corn profitability is declining from higher input costs and reduced ’05 yields.

Lower corn profitability is seen in the preliminary returns difference in northern Illinois for 2005 of -$47 per acre, compared to soybean returns. Similarly, the return difference is -$22 for central Illinois (high-productivity farmland), -$27 for central Illinois (low-productivity farmland), and -$22 for southern Illinois. Take a close look at his report. .

USDA has added a calculator to its website, which it says “estimates diesel fuel use and costs in the production of key crops and compares potential energy savings between conventional tillage and alternative tillage systems.”

$100/cwt cattle could be the result of Japan’s imminent decision to reopen its market to US beef, with continued price strength for 2-3 years. That projection was made by Purdue Specialist Chris Hurt, who said there is a downside. Japan only wants animals 20 months and younger, and US producers are not used to marketing cattle quite that young.

More rainfall information than you can consume will be provided by a new NOAA Internet pagethat takes information from 150 National Weather Service Doppler radars and measurements from more than 4,000 rain gauges, and you can download the data into GIS software for your own farm.

Your field tiles could take on a second job with the discovery that a filter on the outflow point reduces unwanted nutrients and herbicides in streams. A U of I student found that Nitrate-N was reduced from 25 parts per mil. (ppm) to 0 ppm; atrazine went down from 25 parts per bil. (ppb) to 0.5 ppb; and alachlor went down from 25 ppb to 0 ppb. The chemicals were eaten by bacteria living in the wood chips inside the tile filter.

Increased profitability in corn processing could come from U of I research which fractionates the kernel before fermenting. The result is more starch and ethanol at a lower cost, and you get the corn germ, which has more value than distillers dried grain. That means ethanol may not be the primary income for a corn processing plant.

Speaking of ethanol, the Federal Trade Commission reports that since 1998 the number of ethanol producers has expanded from 38 to 75, and Congressional concerns about industry concentration is diminished. FTC says volume will be 5.5 bil. gals. in 2006.

Your assignment for the winter is to let Extension help you improve your operation:
1) Jan. 4 & 5, Crop Prot. Tech.
2) Jan. 10-19, Corn/Soy Classics.
3) Winter, fruit & veg. seminars.

Your bottom line could be helped in 2006 if you attend one of 14 Extension seminars where you will learn how to link crop insurance and grain marketing. That session is free, and an optional afternoon seminar on FAST tools financial management software is available for $45, which includes the software.

Cornbelt farm decision-makers have a new information source in the form of a web-based “blog,” which provides updated farm management information 4-5 times per week, and provides the opportunity for readers to respond. This is a digital version of a “county Extension agent.” Visit early and often!

Controlling soybean aphids without hurting their predators is a growing problem. Such issues are discussed in a new Extension publication about managing insects on your farm. Download it free. You’ll learn how to minimize insect damage with wise soil management and put good bugs to work for you.

US farmers currently export to countries with about 1 bil. consumers. Michigan St. ag economist Tom Reardon says there are 4-5 bil. consumers in emerging Asian and Latin American markets, many of whom already have middle class income and buying power. Chinese supermarkets are a $100 bil. industry, up from 0 in 1990 and growing 30%/year.