farmgate: Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
Dynamics in the livestock industry are changing and that is resulting in a 14% decline for feed and residual use of US corn says IL Extension’s Darrel Good. The Sept. Crop Report estimated 5.2 bil. bu. for new crop feed and residual use, which Good says is the least since the 1995-96 crop year, and an 850 mil. bu. decline from last year.
Those dynamics in the livestock feeding industry, says Good in his weekly newsletter, include:
1) Reduced livestock output, resulting in fewer animals to consume corn.
2) More feeding of distillers’ dried grains instead of higher priced corn.
3) Reduced feeding rates per animal due to higher feed costs.
Corn and bean exports are going in opposite directions says Darrel Good. While corn exports will decline 17% to 2 bil. bu., soybean exports next year may rise 10 mil. bu. But at the same time bean oil and meal exports will drop, reflecting tight overall supplies of beans, larger exports from Brazil and Argentina, and smaller soybean imports by China.
Crop prices are under the influence of world production prospects, energy prices, and world economic conditions according to Good. And he says that means grain prices are still subject to volatility. USDA has estimated a range of $5 to $6 for the average price of new crop corn, and new beans should average in a price range of $11.60 to $13.10.
Wheat prices will have to strengthen to buy enough acres says Extension’s Mike Woolverton at Kansas St., and he adds that even an 18% increase in soybean acreage this year was not enough for that crop. Woolverton says wheat prices are a function of world supply and demand, and currently global production is estimated at 11% more this year.
But wheat has some problems according to Woolverton, because of quality. Only 20% of Ukraine wheat is good enough for milling, and the rest will be livestock feed, putting it 15% to 20% under US wheat prices. At the same time the demand for good milling wheat is up 6% and the US has a large portion of the world’s high protein wheat. Read his newsletter.
In the race to the finish, OSU agronomists rhetorically ask, “If your corn is in the early dent stage as of Sept. 16, will it be safe from frost? Probably not, because it needs about 510 growing degree days (GDD) to reach black layer based on the kernel development. If your corn is in the fully dented stage as of Sept. 9 will it be safe from frost? It needs about 250 GDD to reach black layer from the full dent stage.” Corn planted in early June requires 200 to 300 fewer GDDs than early May corn to achieve physiological maturity.
Elwynn Taylor’s weather outlook is not pretty. He says the active tropical storm season could bring significant moisture into the Cornbelt this fall, in addition to the shift back to a La Nina weather pattern which means additional fall moisture. Taylor says in the last 4 weeks the Pacific weather patterns that were headed toward an El Nino, have reversed, and are now working toward a La Nina with a negative impact on 2009 crops.
Diplodia stalk rot is beginning to appear in some corn fields. It is a fungus that was spurred by dry weather during the early season and warm moist conditions after pollination. Stalk tissues will turn brown, begin to rot, and then turn gray-green in color before the plant dies. Manage it by selecting seed that is resistant to Gibberella fungus.
Diplodia ear rot is beginning to appear in some corn fields. White regions will appear on the husk, and when it is pulled back, a white chalky fungus will be growing on the kernels. Kernel size will be reduced. Extension specialists believe continuous corn is a contributor to the increased presence of Diplodia, which is becoming more common.
If Hurricane Ike left standing water and downed corn; you may have a problem ahead harvesting lodged corn, when the soil dries out enough to get in the field. Resources:
1) Iowa State University--reducing harvest losses
2) Iowa State University--harvesting lodged corn
3) North Carolina State University--hurricane damaged corn
4) University of Missouri--lodged corn
5) University of Wisconsin--lodged corn
If Hurricanes Gustav and Ike left presents in your soybean fields, it depends on the soybean stage of growth whether you should be concerned about Asian rust say Purdue agronomists. Most soybeans are at the R-6 stage, which gives them immunity to rust, however some double crop beans and others that were late planted into ponds will not be as mature and may need careful scouting. Keep tabs here.
Tally the diseases in your soybeans, suggests OSU agronomist Ann Dorrance.
1) Phytophthora wilts plants with brown cankers moving up the stem.
2) Diaporthe stem canker wilts bean plants and can decay seed if harvest is wet.
3) Sclerotina infected plants will be above the canopy with brown stems and white mold.
4) Charcoal rot causes early death in low lying pockets of the field.
Refresh yourself on grain drying procedures, since that will probably be needed this fall. IL Extension Engineer Ted Funk says high propane prices will make it expensive, but if stalks are lodging and ears dropping, harvest may be advanced to save the crop. And he says that means drying grain if you are harvesting it at more than 15% moisture.
Several options exist for drying corn, says Funk, with $2.50 propane and 10¢ electricity:
1) A high-speed column dryer with in-dryer cooling might be expected to burn 20 gal. of propane per 100 bushel of corn, and use 10 kWh of electricity, costing $51 per 100 bu.
2) Dryeration uses delayed cooling in a bin with 60% higher system throughput requiring 14.5 gal. of propane and 7 kWh of electricity per 100 bu. of corn dried, costing $37.
3) Combination drying uses high speed initially and in-bin layer drying to get the last points plus cooling. Throughput is increased 250% over the high-speed dryer alone using 8 gal. of propane and 90 kWh of electricity at a cost of $29 per 100 bu.
Prepare your bins for the fall harvest, by making a checklist after cleaning them out.
1) Holes allow birds and rodents to enter as well as moisture that causes mold spots.
2) Check drying equipment for worn belts and bearings, frayed wire, and bad switches.
3) Remove all old grain and debris from bins, combines, wagons, truck beds, & augers.
4) Clear away all vegetation from bin foundations that might house rodents and insects.
5) After cleaning bin, apply an empty bin insecticide treatment 2 weeks before filling.
6) Apply a perimeter insecticide spray around the bin and 15 feet up the outside wall.
This is the time of year when 5 seconds can consume a lifetime. It only takes that long to trap someone in flowing grain, and it only takes 20 seconds to be totally submerged in a bin of flowing grain. IL Extension safety specialist Bob Aherin recommends:
1) Work with a second person in a bin and a lifeline or harness to prevent engulfment.
2) Moldy crusts atop grain bins can hide air pockets, which can bury and suffocate.
3) Turn off and lock all unloading equipment before entering a grain bin.
4) If someone is trapped in grain, shut off unloading equipment and turn on aeration fans.
Book your fertilizer needs while you still have the money to pay the bill. OSU ag economists report, “The average price for NH 3 has increased from $952.5 per ton a month ago to $1074 on 8/13/2008, an increase of 16.77%. Prices for UAN and Urea have increased nearly the same rate. UAN increased from $440 to $465.5 or 8%, and Urea has increased from $735.75 to $853 or 21.34% in the same time period.”
But that’s not all. The Ohio State survey found “MAP increased 10% and DAP increased 3.38% from July to August. MAP has increased from $1105.25 to $1185 per ton while DAP has increased from $1180 to $1184 per ton. Potash has increased from $736 to $802 per ton in the same time. This is an increase 19.12% in just three weeks.”
If you are planting wheat, agronomists are pleading with you to wait until the Hessian fly free date in your latitude. Infestations were heavy in the southern Cornbelt this year. The keys are planting resistant varieties of wheat or waiting until after egg-laying to avoid feeding the spring brood. Find your latitude and check your fly-free date here.
Large producers ($750,000+ in sales) are increasing their preference for input suppliers based on convenience and location, say Purdue economists. Their annual survey found midsize and younger producers being more loyal than larger producers to their primary local supplier of agronomic inputs. Farmers under 35 were less likely to buy at the lowest price, except for animal health products. High-growth producers were less inclined to buy seed at the lowest price, but more inclined for crop protection chemicals.
Posted by Stu Ellis on September 19, 2008 12:19 AM to farmgate