farmgate: Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
USDA’s August Crop Report indicated more corn than the market anticipated at 12.3 bil. bu., but the rest of the world is producing a good crop as well. IL Extension’s Darrel Good says, “Production prospects have declined for Argentina, but improved for Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and the Ukraine. Coarse grain production outside the US is forecast at a record 760.33 MMT, nearly 5% larger than last year’s crop.”
Darrel Good says the same is true for soybeans. “Soybean production in Brazil in 2009 is forecast at 2.3 bil. bu., 55 mil. less than forecast last month but 55 mil. more than produced this year. For Argentina, production is forecast at 1.82 bil. bu., 55 mil. more than forecast in July and 110 mil. more than the 2008 harvest.” Read his newsletter.
What is your guess of futures prices on future dates? Extension economists have submitted their estimates for a wide range of commodities, abbreviated here:
1) Corn: 12/1/08-$6.63. 3/2/09-$7.16. 6/30/09-$6.89
2) Beans: 12/1/08-$14.62. 3/2/09-$15.31. 6/30/09-$15.26
3) Wheat: 12/1/08-$8.60. 3/2/09-$8.68. 6/30/09-$7.98
Will weather be normal for the rest of the growing season? Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says USDA crop estimates do not consider weather abnormalities, and he says, “The possibility of adversely hot temperatures during the next 4 weeks constitutes the very real risk that the US corn yield could fall below the trend (150.6BPA).”
Elwynn Taylor says, “Historically crop condition observations become meaningful after mid-August. The 2008 crop to date has persistently scored better than average for the Cornbelt in general. When more than 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent the anticipated yield exceeds the trend. The current corn condition is 67% good-excellent.”
If it is August, expect August weather says meteorologist Jim Noel at Ohio State. “The overall pattern has shifted to near normal temperatures and below normal rainfall and this is expected to continue for the rest of August and possibly into September now. After this week of below normal temperatures and rainfall, temperatures will return to near normal, but rainfall should continue below normal though a few areas may get normal rainfall.”
Soybean aphids have become a serious problem in North and South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, Minnesota, northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin where nearly all fields have been sprayed, some requiring 2 applications. Entomologists are watching the expansion of the outbreak, which could include northwestern Illinois.
Should you spray aphids? IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says that depends upon the presence or absence of predator insects, and the number of alatoid nymphs, which have broader shoulders and will develop wings and fly away. Scout for the 250 aphid threshold, and read more.
Illinois soybean fields are beginning to show evidence of Sudden Death Syndrome, caused by fusarium. Yellow flecks on the leaves appear between the veins, then the leaf tissue dies with the veins remaining green. Roots are already deteriorating from the fusarium toxin that moves upward in the plant. Management includes variety selection with fusarium resistance, planting late, minimal soil compaction, and lack of SCN.
At mid-August barely half of the soybean crop is setting pods says USDA, and some beans have yet to start blooming. Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says, “The lack of warm night temperatures over an extended number of days might be the cause. In any case, plants with few or no flowers are a sign of a crop that is likely to have problems reaching maturity before cool weather starts to limit the crop's ability to fill seeds.”
Nafziger says the soybean plant knows how many pods it can support and aborts the rest. “This is one of the reasons why Kip Cullers of southwestern Missouri, who has set the yield record for irrigated soybeans, focuses on ways to retain pods on the plant. Preventing drought stress through irrigation is certainly the most consistent way to do this. Mr. Cullers also applies fungicides and micronutrients, and he supplements fixed nitrogen with N from poultry litter, in an attempt to maximize pod numbers.”
Late planted beans and insufficient temperatures present a serious challenge to soybeans this year, says Nafziger. He says the only way to exceed 42 bushels is for above normal temperatures in September with adequate soil moisture. But he says if August temperatures spill into September, the signs are not very positive for soybean yields.
If your soybeans are small and you wonder if they would benefit from a foliar fertilizer; IL Extension’s Fabian Fernandez says a lot of research has been done, and the chance of getting a good yield response is very limited. Even with a yield response, the application will not be cost effective. More.
Yellow leaves and stunted ears may also signal visitors to your cornfield. Iowa State specialist Greg Tylka says now is the time to sample the soil around corn roots for corn nematodes. Collect 20 soil cores about 12-inches deep and several root balls from corn stalks with symptoms. Contact university plant clinics about submitting soil for testing.
Non-GMO cornfields may be hosting the second generation of corn borers, so watch for egg masses nearest the ear. Once the eggs get a black spot the larvae will soon hatch and that starts a 10 day calendar for decision on a rescue treatment. To assist in the decision whether to spray, consult this decision aid.
Flooded acres, where no crops were produced this year, need to be managed say Iowa State soil scientists. The lack of crops means the lack of beneficial organisms ready for next year. They recommend a cover crop, such as oats, rye, or winter wheat to generate the biological activity in the soil. Weeds can also work, but the downside is more weeds next year. Read more.
Flooded acres also need fertility attention, and the Iowa State specialists recommend taking soil samples to determine the nutrient status, particularly phosphorus. They also say to avoid extensive tillage that might create additional compaction problems.
Corn buyers were happy to see the 12.3 bil. bu. USDA crop estimate, notes NE livestock economist Darrel Mark, “Livestock feeders and other corn buyers found some welcomed news in the report as USDA lowered its marketing year price forecast by $0.60/bu.” Mark warns that the crop will be vulnerable to an early frost, “So, livestock feeders should continue to watch the corn market carefully for signs of a potential bottom.”
2009 may mean more red ink for pork producers, if Extension economists are correct about pork production and prices. MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say the survey predicts third quarter 2008 51-52% lean live hogs to average $52.40 per cwt, fourth quarter $48.36, first quarter 2009 $51.61 per cwt, second quarter $58.46, third quarter $60.25 and fourth quarter 2009 $57.01. The 2009 average price is $56.88.
Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, “Based on these forecasts, hog producers that cannot handle more risk should take a long hard look at what the lean hog futures contract is now offering for hedge opportunities. If the above forecasts turn out to be what happens, and they look realistic with current information, hog producers on average will lose money through much of 2009.” The same survey predicted corn and soybean meal prices, putting the average breakeven price in the low $60 range.
2009 may mean less red ink for cattle producers. The Extension economists survey of cattle futures predicted third quarter 2008 $96.55 per cwt, fourth quarter $100.42 per cwt, first quarter 2009 $100.36 per cwt, $103.16 for the second quarter of 2009, $98.72 per cwt for the third quarter and $102.72 per cwt for the fourth quarter of 2009.
Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, “Their forecasts indicate the current live cattle futures should be sold by cattle feeders. Even with higher feed prices, these price levels are likely to hold the cattle herd close to current levels. In other words, unless we have a drought in beef cow country, the herd is not likely to reduce very fast at this price level for feeder cattle.” Read more.
Use of miscanthus instead of switchgrass would minimize cropland used for biofuels says IL miscanthus researcher Stephen Long. Ethanol production at current policy goals would require 25% of US cropland planted in switchgrass, but only 9.3% of US cropland if planted to miscanthus. He says it produces 2.5 times the ethanol per acre vs. corn.
One missing kernel per row at the cob tip is a 5 bu. loss says Purdue’s Bob Nielsen. Multiply 1 kernel by 16 rows by 30,000 population, divide by 90,000 kernels per bu.
Posted by Stu Ellis on August 15, 2008 12:12 AM to farmgate