farmgate: Extension Update
Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.
USDA’s Final 2007 Crop Report put corn production at 13.074 bil. bu., a 1% drop from Nov. The average yield was estimated at 151.1 bu.. USDA estimated the carryout at 1.438 bil. well below the trade estimate, helped by a 300 mil. bu. increase in feed usage. The season average cash price was raised 35¢ to a range of $3.70 to $4.30.
The final USDA soybean estimate was 2.585 bil. bu., compared to 2.594 bil. bu. in Nov. USDA estimated the average yield was 41.2 bu., down 0.1 from Nov. USDA dropped carryout estimates to 175 mil. bu. and raised the season average price to $9.90 to $10.90.
The USDA Quarterly Stocks Report estimated corn at 10.268 bil., under the market guess of 10.584 bil. Soybean stocks were estimated at 2.329 bil. bu. less than the 2.265 bil. estimated by the market. Wheat stocks were pegged at 1.128 bil. bu.
USDA’s Winter Wheat Seedings report estimated total acreage up 4% from last year to 46.6 mil. However only 44% is in good to excellent condition, which is a drop from 56% at this time last year. Soft red wheat acres are up 21% due to strong prices in SRW areas.
Commodity shortages and heavy global demand for ag products are pushing up prices, but Purdue economist Mike Boehlje says that will not mean more money in farmer pockets. He says domestic demand is growing because of biofuels, and foreign demand is growing because of the weaker dollar and burgeoning economies in China and India. But he says higher cash rent and production prices will preclude additional farm profits.
“We became confident that La Nina would exist in 2008 when atmospheric pressure statistics reached threshold levels on December 25, 2007,” says Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor, who says it began October 21, 2007. The US weather pattern typical of a La Nina (moist in the Ohio River Valley, dry in the High Plains, and extreme Midwest temperatures) was apparent by the end of November. The last El Nino ended in October 2006, the La Nina began one year later, and La Nina patterns typically exist for 6-9 mos.
As you prepare marketing and risk management plans for your 2008 crops, monitoring the depth or shallowness of the La Nina may become important to you. Monitor the maps.
“As you were” on that order by the Dept. of Homeland Security requiring farmers to register their stored amounts of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, anhydrous ammonia, propane, biogas and certain other chemicals. The requirement has been postponed indefinitely, so disregard the Jan. 22 deadline; but beware of a future mandate to register.
1998 will be replaced by 2008 as the worst financial year for pork producers in modern history says Purdue economist Chris Hurt. A combination of too many hogs and high feed prices may result in a $25 per head loss on average for the year. Hurt says 2008 cost prospects are over $55 per head, compared to the 10 year average under $41 per head.
Livestock economist Chris Hurt says pork producers will have to go into survival mode for the year, until a spring 2009 recovery. He urges retailers to lower their pork prices to move the product, assured that wholesale pork prices will remain low for months to come. He says producers should cut market weights and analyze their feed efficiency. Read more.
The global market may demand US commodities without GMO content, but USDA cannot meet that guarantee says IL Extension Ag Law Specialist Bryan Endres. He says USDA lost the Roundup alfalfa lawsuit because it was unable to show other producers would not be impacted. USDA’s policy of “Low Level Presence” is a permissive strategy says Endres, and he adds that the industry has a self policing policy of securing international markets for a biotech product before public release, but it has not happened.
If tax preparation is on your agenda, IL Extension tax specialist Gary Hoff says don’t get caught in the 2 person trap. He says the IRS is looking at farms where the husband and wife are collecting government payments as two persons; and checking to see if each of them are paying self-employment tax. He gives several examples in his newsletter.
The cost of forage production is tied into the cost of harvesting equipment and the labor needed to deliver forage. Consequently, Purdue forage specialist Dennis Buckmaster says match the equipment’s capacity with your operation. He says select a set of machinery, not individual implements, within the particular size range for your farm.
Your Dad didn’t have a waterhemp problem, but you do. Extension weed specialists have produced a new tell-all waterhemp booklet that explains why the problem is yours. Obtain the publication.
1) Increased use of no-till and reduced tillage favors spread of waterhemp. Small seed remains at soil surface and reduced cultivation favors many late-emerging plants.
2) 30 years ago farmers relied on soil applied herbicides with long residual activity; but wide use of ALS-inhibiting herbicides allowed survival of ALS-resistant waterhemp.
Say goodbye to 7% iodine. It has been used for years to treat livestock wounds and a few human cuts, but its popularity among the methamphetamine users has caused law enforcement agencies to re-classify the antiseptic as a substance controlled by the DEA.
Posted by Stu Ellis on January 11, 2008 12:56 AM to farmgate